Week 4 Sagarin Spreads

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For the analytical geeks among you, here are some predicted score differentials for some of the top FCS teams based on Sagarin's "predictor" ratings published 20 September.

Note that Liberty is favored statistically over James Madison by a FG, and Weber is favored by less than a FG at Portland State.

Sorry about the format. Your additions and corrections will be appreciated.

Top FCS Team, Record, Sag Rank, Sag Pred, Opponent, Sag Rank, Sag Pred, Week 4 Predicted Spread
Richmond (3-0), 47, 71.53, hosts VMI, 224, 37.83, 36.61
Northern Iowa (2-1), 33, 81.07, at Missouri State, 173, 49.30, 28.86
Villanova (3-0), 82, 66.47, hosts Northeastern, 215,39.46, 29.92
W&M (3-0), 80, 65.09, hosts Delaware, 121. 62.38, 5.62
New Hampshire (2-0), 109, 60.96, hosts Dartmouth, 220, 36.56, 27.31
Southern Illinois (1-1), 94, 64.31, hosts North Dakota State, 188, 52.56, 14.66
McNeese (3-0), 110, 60.43, at Tulane, 123, 60.63, -3.11
James Madison (1-1), 134, 60.18, at Liberty, 126, 60.40, -3.13
Central Arkansas (1-1), 100, 67.85, hosts Glenville State, NA, 14.98, 55.78
Montana (3-0), 57, 69.86, at Northern Arizona, 115, 60.87, 6.08
Weber (1-2), 132, 62.58, at Portland State, 129, 57.27, 2.40
Elon (2-1), 135, 61.55, hosts Georgia Southern, 157, 46.57, 17.89
Massachussetts, (2-1), 95, 66.21, hosts Stony Brook, 203, 40.56, 28.56
Cal Poly (1-1), 116, 58.93, at San Jose State, 117, 60.89, -4.87
App State (0-2), 119, 62.74, hosts Samford, 181, 54.78, 10.87
Samford (2-1), 181, 54.78, at Appalachian State, 119, 62.74, -10.87
South Dakota St (2-0), 111, 60.66, at Illinois State, 166, 49.50, 8.25
Colgate (3-0), 161, 49.04, hosts Fordham, 216, 41.21, 10.74
Wofford (1-2), 102, 59.68, at Chattanooga, 190, 44.90, 11.87
Delaware (2-1), 121, 62.38, at William & Mary, 80, 65.09, -5.62
SC State (2-0), 131, 57.42, hosts Winston-Salem, 239, 30.35, 29.98
Liberty (2-1), 126, 60.40, hosts James Madison, 134, 60.18, 3.13
Furman (2-1), 120, 55.14, at Western Carolina, 225, 34.51, 17.72
Jacksonville St (1-2), 52, 72.54, at Nicholls State, 196, 38.24, 31.39
Albany (1-2), 182, 45.16, hosts Sacred Heart, 244, 24.01, 24.06
Harvard (0-1), 186, 48.90, hosts Brown, 195, 45.99, 5.82
Maine (1-1), 180, 49.91, at Syracuse, 101, 62.22, -15.22
Texas State (1-1), 137, 55.80, hosts Texas Southern, 237, 32.63, 26.08
Eastern Kentucky (1-1), 142, 56.91, at Murray State, 212, 40.22, 13.78
Georgia Southern (2-1), 157, 46.57, at Elon, 135, 61.55, -17.89
Eastern Washington (2-1), 93, 56.49, at Sacramento State, 159, 50.28, 3.30
Northern Arizona (1-1), 115, 60.87, hosts Montana, 57, 69.86, -6.08
Portland St (1-2), 129, 57.27, hosts Weber, 132, 62.58, -2.40
Idaho St (0-3), 178, 50.55, hosts Central Washington, N/A, 14.98, 38.48
Montana State (1-1), 143, 60.70 at Northern Colorado, 169, 41.35, 16.44
Sac State (0-2), 159, 50.28, hosts Eastern Washington, 93, 56.49, -3.30
Northern Colorado (1-2), 169, 41.35, hosts Montana State, 143, 60.70, -16.44
Holy Cross (3-0), 193, 45.52, IDLE
Florida A&M (3-0), 154, 55.88, hosts Tennessee State, 206, 40.50, 18.29

Ref: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm