US Strikes Iran Part 2.

[UNI88]

[UNI88]

The miscalculation keeping Trump at war with Iran

Donald Trump has grossly miscalculated Iran’s ability to choke off global oil supplies, leading to an “entirely foreseeable” price shock, critics say.
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On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the war in the Middle East has hit the oil market with an even bigger shock than the crisis that unfolded in the 1970s.
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“There’s a lot of miscalculation here,” said Dr Eric Heginbotham from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) security studies program. “If they’d asked an analyst of any sort within the Pentagon or anywhere else, they would have told you this is a big problem.”

“It’s very clear that the Strait of Hormuz was not a focus of their planning and risk mitigation,” said Prof Elizabeth Saunders, a foreign policy expert at Columbia University.
...
A report by the company run by Mr Trump’s own energy secretary in 2024 even predicted that a growing conflict with Iran would “significantly escalate global oil prices” and warned about the impact on the Strait, The Telegraph revealed on Wednesday.

Yet the administration appears to have been caught flat-footed by the growing oil crisis.

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[Skjellyfetti]

They got high on their own supply after Venezuela raid

[kalm]

Yup. Well said.

[kalm]

President of peace. No more foreign entanglements…

[kalm]

Not good.

[SeattleGriz]

Not good.

I agree. While I think US weaponry is better, we simply don't have enough. Iran has been going after US systems that track missiles and has been fairly successful simply due to volume.

I think Iran has game planned this scenario for years. Not saying they are going to defeat the US or Israel, but I think they are just going to keep launching missiles and drones until they really start inflicting damage.

Straight of Hormuz is a nightmare to defend as well. It's why the US Navy has not escorted anyone through it yet.

I want to know who the genius military planners were that didn't see this happening? Boutique weapons are good, but attrition is the problem. We've watched it in Ukraine as well.

[kalm]

[UNI88]

Not good.

They got Whiskeyleaks title wrong - he's the Secretary of War Criimes.

[kalm]

Not good.

They got Whiskeyleaks title wrong - he's the Secretary of War Criimes.

If we go in and attempt control of anything, it’s going to be chaotic unless we commit to full scale invasion and occupation. It’s a large country with 93 million people.

[UNI88]

They got Whiskeyleaks title wrong - he's the Secretary of War Criimes.

If we go in and attempt control of anything, it’s going to be chaotic unless we commit to full scale invasion and occupation. It’s a large country with 93 million people.

There is always a chance of a popular uprising but the continued bombing reduces that chance at least temporarily.

[UNI88]

The White House bowling video is so ridiculous that it could go in the funny memes thread without any editing.

[kalm]

The White House bowling video is so ridiculous that it could go in the funny memes thread without any editing.

It really does represent a 12 year old level of emotional and intellectual maturity. I guarantee you Hegseth thought it was funny and cool af.

[kalm]

Fundraising off of deceased soldiers.

[BDKJMU]

Sounds like a giant cave by Iran. And most of that oil goes to China..

Iran said Saturday that all countries besides the US and Israel may pass through the Strait of Hormuz, in a desperate attempt at coalition busting less than a day after the US bombed military targets on its oil-critical Kharg Island.

“As a matter of fact, the Strait of Hormuz is open,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.

“It is only closed to the tankers and ships belong[ing] to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies. Others are free to pass,” Araghchi told MS NOW.

President Trump has threatened to destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure on Kharg Island energy hub — through which 90% of its oil exports pass — if it refuses to allow safe passage.

Araghchi noted that many ships “prefer” not to undertake the journey due to “security concerns,” but insisted, “this has nothing to do with us.”

“And I can say that the Strait is not closed, but it is only closed to American, Israeli, you know, ships and tankers, and not to others.”

Two Indian-flagged tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas crossed the Strait, Reuters reported Saturday.

“They crossed the Strait of Hormuz safely early this morning and are en route to India,” Rajesh Kumar Sinha, the minister of ports and shipping in New Delhi, said.

Sixteen ships operating in and around the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have been attacked since the war started Feb. 28 , according to UK Maritime Trade Operations.

https://nypost.com/2026/03/14/world-new ... ster-says/

[BDKJMU]

[UNI88]

Sounds like a giant cave by Iran. And most of that oil goes to China..

Iran said Saturday that all countries besides the US and Israel may pass through the Strait of Hormuz, in a desperate attempt at coalition busting less than a day after the US bombed military targets on its oil-critical Kharg Island.

“As a matter of fact, the Strait of Hormuz is open,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.

“It is only closed to the tankers and ships belong[ing] to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies. Others are free to pass,” Araghchi told MS NOW.

President Trump has threatened to destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure on Kharg Island energy hub — through which 90% of its oil exports pass — if it refuses to allow safe passage.

Araghchi noted that many ships “prefer” not to undertake the journey due to “security concerns,” but insisted, “this has nothing to do with us.”

“And I can say that the Strait is not closed, but it is only closed to American, Israeli, you know, ships and tankers, and not to others.”

Two Indian-flagged tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas crossed the Strait, Reuters reported Saturday.

“They crossed the Strait of Hormuz safely early this morning and are en route to India,” Rajesh Kumar Sinha, the minister of ports and shipping in New Delhi, said.

Sixteen ships operating in and around the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have been attacked since the war started Feb. 28 , according to UK Maritime Trade Operations.

https://nypost.com/2026/03/14/world-new ... ster-says/

Which allies is Iran including? What about countries hosting our bases?

If trump targets Iran's oil infrastructure on Kharg Island the price of oil will likely skyrocket and shock costs and markets around the world.

Is he crazy enough to do it?

Would he try to use it as an excuse to declare an emergency and take more power?


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[BDKJMU]

Sounds like a giant cave by Iran. And most of that oil goes to China..


https://nypost.com/2026/03/14/world-new ... ster-says/

Which allies is Iran including? What about countries hosting our bases?

If trump targets Iran's oil infrastructure on Kharg Island the price of oil will likely skyrocket and shock costs and markets around the world.

Is he crazy enough to do it?

Would he try to use it as an excuse to declare an emergency and take more power?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Karg produces 7 million barrels per day out of (according to Google AI) 2023 about 82 million per day worldwide. So that’s about 8% of world supply, which if taken offline would cause a price spike. But much of that which could/and would be made up by OPEC and other oil producing countries increasing production to take advantage of higher prices.

Options:
1.Leave it (oil storage & production part) alone.
2.Destroy it.
3.Seize it.
4. Blockade it.

….Of course, seizing Kharg Island would have an immediate negative impact on Iran as well. According to retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, moving on this strategy by the United States and Israel would “basically shut [Iran] off economically,” making it impossible for Iran to support China or Russia with much needed crude from Iran itself. In this way, not only would the United States increase its chances of success in the Iran War, but it might also strike a blow for Ukraine and possibly Taiwan in the future.

Another option would be simply to block access to the island, thereby depriving the Iranians of any export potential. Energy tankers continued to load at Kharg Island in the first few days after the February 28 attacks, but it is unclear whether that can continue and, if so, for how long..

For the Iranian regime, losing any potential energy revenue would be another serious blow to an already devastated economy. Due to extreme internal mismanagement and years of prior international sanctions, Iran’s overall standard of living has been collapsing. Just days before the February 28 attacks, the BBC issued a report entitled “People are getting poorer: How Iran’s struggling economy is changing how families live.” (Source). According to that report, in the past 12 months, the price of basic necessities has increased in Iran by an average of 60%, and “the cost of an average family food basket is currently eight times what it was five years ago.”…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielmark ... rg-island/

The best option might be to blockade it for reasons listed above. Iran would lose their ability to wage war, would have to cry uncle, and then it could be restarted rather quickly.

[Skjellyfetti]

Do you think would have been a good idea for the administration to have considered this and made a plan before kicking off the conflict?

[kalm]

Do you think would have been a good idea for the administration to have considered this and made a plan before kicking off the conflict?

And maybe consulted with our allies? After this, do we even have real allies anymore?

I’d say none in Western Europe. And Russian and Israel use Trump while Orban does whatever Putin tells him. Maybe Javier Milei can cut through it all with his chainsaw.

Japan maybe. And don’t forget the Norks.

[UNI88]

Do you think would have been a good idea for the administration to have considered this and made a plan before kicking off the conflict?

trump and Whiskeyleaks would rather charge in and then attempt to bully our (former) allies into helping because nothing demonstrate international respect like needing to bully your (former) allies.

[kalm]

[BDKJMU]

NOT the Onion or Babylon Bee..The Gayatollah.

Trump briefed that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is probably gay — and president has priceless reaction

WASHINGTON — President Trump was stunned to learn last week that US intelligence indicates new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be gay — and that his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, feared his suitability to rule the Islamic Republic for that reason, The Post can reveal.

Trump couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud when he was briefed on the intel, according to sources.

Others in the room also found it “hilarious” and joined the president’s reaction, while one senior intelligence official “has not stopped laughing about it for days,” said one person familiar with the briefing.

The shocking claim was described to The Post by two intelligence community officials and a third person close to the White House.

All three sources say the implausible-sounding allegation is viewed as credible by US spy agencies, rather than false information intended to undermine Khamenei, 56, who was selected to replace his dead father as supreme leader on March 8.

Two of the sources said the intelligence indicated that Mojtaba, who earned the nickname “the power behind the robes” while serving as his aging dad’s gatekeeper, has had a long-term sexual relationship with his childhood tutor.

The third source said the intelligence indicated the affair was with a person who formerly worked for the Khamenei family.

Mojtaba, who is believed to have been wounded in the same Feb. 28 airstrike that killed his father and other members of his family, has made “aggressive” sexual overtures to men caring for him, possibly while under the influence of heavy medication, one of The Post’s sources said.

US spy agencies do not have photographic evidence of Mojtaba Khamenei’s alleged sexual attraction to men, but the sources insisted the tip is solid, with one saying it was “derived from one of the most protected sources that the government has.”

“The fact that this was elevated to the highest of high levels shows you there’s some confidence in this,” added a second source.

Mojtaba’s purported sexual orientation had been whispered about inside Iran since at least the May 2024 helicopter crash that killed then-President Ebrahim Raisi, Ali Khamenei’s presumed favorite to be the next supreme leader, sources said.

Within the US government, “it’s been a pretty closely held piece of information,” one insider said…..

……Some elements of Mojtaba Khamenei’s sex life have been reported before and may lend credence to the allegation.

A classified US diplomatic cable from 2008, published by WikiLeaks, described Mojtaba being treated in the UK for impotence, though that report did not identify what may have caused the condition.

The State Department file says Mojtaba married “relatively late in life” — around age 30 — “reportedly due to an impotency problem treated and eventually resolved during three extended visits to the UK, at Wellington and Cromwell Hospitals, London.”

“Mojtaba was expected by his family to produce children quickly, but needed a fourth visit to the UK for medical treatment; after a stay of two months, his wife became pregnant,” the leaked file said.…

https://nypost.com/2026/03/16/us-news/t ... bably-gay/

[kalm]

Smartest motherfucker to ever occupy the Oval Office

[kalm]

The winners: Putin and Bibi

A former official who was briefed on the Geneva talks by some of the participants said: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring a US technical team with them. They used Grossi as their technical expert, but that is not his job. So Jonathan Powell took his own team.

“The UK team were surprised by what the Iranians put on the table,” the former official added.

“It was not a complete deal, but it was progress and was unlikely to be the Iranians’ final offer. The British team expected the next round of negotiations to go ahead on the basis of the progress in Geneva.”

That next round of talks was due to take place in Vienna on Monday 2 March, but never happened. The US and Israel had launched their all-out attack two days earlier.

Powell’s attendance at the Geneva talks, as well as at a previous set of meetings earlier in the month in the Swiss city, helps in part to explain the UK government’s reluctance to back the US attack on Iran, a reluctance that has put the UK-US relationship under unprecedented strain.

The UK saw no compelling evidence of an imminent threat of an Iranian missile attack on Europe, or of Iran securing a nuclear weapon. This is the first time it has become clear that Britain was so closely involved in the talks, and so had good reason to decide whether diplomatic options had been exhausted and a US attack was necessary.

Instead the UK regarded the attack as unlawful and premature since Powell believed the path remained open to a negotiated solution to the long-running issue of how Iran could reassure the US that it was not seeking a nuclear weapon.