2025/2026 Elections Congressional & State

[BDKJMU]

Well, nobody should be surprised, but the U-Haul’s are backed up all over the place and Nyc right now…. You can’t even rent one.

Based on what? That just sounds like clickbait. Have you tried renting a UHaul? Where are the photos? Do the well-to-do even use UHauls? All sounds made up.

True. The people who are fleeing aren’t the types to use U-Hauls.
NYC election fears drive $100M+ Florida real estate surge as 'nervous' New Yorkers flee south
https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/nyc-e ... flee-south

[GannonFan]

You can always find enclaves of good education, even in crappier states. Money solves a lot of problems. The rich in Alabama still have good schools for their kids. As for where people want to live, the biggest thing, or two things, is where their family is and where the jobs are. They worry about education once those two things are settled.

I wasn't talking about the rich, they can always send their kids to private schools. Quality of public education impacts the middle class and below the most.

For them, jobs and family are the primary factors. But I think there are some who think quality of education is also an important consideration and I think that number will grow. It's a question of how much. Might be a tiny, imperceptible amount, might be more. I'm not sure I'd want to raise a family in Mississippi (or one of these states pushing religious indoctrination in public schools) in the future.

But how many people are truly mobile enough to move far enough away from their home state for the potential promise of education for a future, or even current family? Maybe some do, the rich certainly do, but do others? We're not talking about moving across town or a couple of towns over, we're talking about leaving the deep south (in most cases the poorer public education is there) and moving hundreds, if not thousands of miles, normally to places where the standard of living is already higher and everything costs more. If you already lived in Mississippi and wanted to leave, going to an out of state college, if you could afford it, would be the way to go. But how many do that versus how many stay and go to Oxford or to Starksville for school? I think we overestimate the ability of the non-rich to pick up and move.

[BDKJMU]

The Uhauls was a troll…. But I did read something a while back where the population of states like New York, California and Illinois are departing in much heavier numbers than red states

The weather is generally nicer in the warmer states, which predominantly tend to be red states. The overall population is aging, and when people get old and retire they tend to move to warmer states. And red states largely tend to treat retirement income more favorably than the blue states they are leaving.

That’s doesn’t explain NYC’s wealth exodus in the last 5 years. 14 billion tax revenue to Florida, another 9 billion to other parts of the northeast.
May of this year:

$14B in income vanishes from NYC as 125K residents flee for Florida

….. More than 125,000 New Yorkers have fled for Florida in recent years — taking nearly $14 billion worth of income out of the Empire State, a new report found.

About a third of those Big Apple residents — some 41,251 — flocked to sunny Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward Counties, over a five-year period, according to data from the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonpartisan New York-based fiscal watchdog…..

….. Combined, these relocations within the Northeast cost New York City $22.8 billion in income and resulted in a population drop of more than 230,000 resident…..

…. The number of US millionaires in New York increased from 36,000 to 70,000 between 2010 and 2022, the report found. But its total share of millionaires compared to other states ticked down considerably, dipping from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022 — a more than 31% slide….

https://nypost.com/2025/05/01/us-news/1 ... o-florida/

Of the remaining wealth that hasn’t already fled NYC for Florida and other no local/state income tax states, the remaining wealthiest 1% pays about 48% of the NYC local income tax. When a large chunk of them leave because of Mandami’s policies, NYC is fucked. If you make a million+ a year in NYC, why would you want to continue to pay 15% in NY State and City Income taxes (17% if Mandami gets his way), why wouldn’t you leave for FL or another no state income tax state where you could pay 0%?

Oh, and no state income tax Florida is going to eliminate property taxes for full time residents also.

[GannonFan]

The weather is generally nicer in the warmer states, which predominantly tend to be red states. The overall population is aging, and when people get old and retire they tend to move to warmer states. And red states largely tend to treat retirement income more favorably than the blue states they are leaving.

That’s doesn’t explain NYC’s wealth exodus in the last 5 years. 14 billion tax revenue to Florida, another 9 billion to other parts of the northeast.
May of this year:

$14B in income vanishes from NYC as 125K residents flee for Florida

….. More than 125,000 New Yorkers have fled for Florida in recent years — taking nearly $14 billion worth of income out of the Empire State, a new report found.

About a third of those Big Apple residents — some 41,251 — flocked to sunny Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward Counties, over a five-year period, according to data from the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonpartisan New York-based fiscal watchdog…..

….. Combined, these relocations within the Northeast cost New York City $22.8 billion in income and resulted in a population drop of more than 230,000 resident…..

…. The number of US millionaires in New York increased from 36,000 to 70,000 between 2010 and 2022, the report found. But its total share of millionaires compared to other states ticked down considerably, dipping from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022 — a more than 31% slide….

https://nypost.com/2025/05/01/us-news/1 ... o-florida/

Of the remaining wealth that hasn’t already fled NYC for Florida and other no local/state income tax states, the remaining wealthiest 1% pays about 48% of the NYC local income tax. When a large chunk of them leave because of Mandami’s policies, NYC is fucked. If you make a million+ a year in NYC, why would you want to continue to pay 15% in NY State and City Income taxes (17% if Mandami gets his way), why wouldn’t you leave for FL or another no state income tax state where you could pay 0%?

Oh, and no state income tax Florida is going to eliminate property taxes for full time residents also.

I don't disagree with any of that. Florida has made itself an extremely desirable place for really rich people to want to live, especially compared to a place like NYC with its tax structure and politics. There's no argument against that.

[UNI88]

Based on what? That just sounds like clickbait. Have you tried renting a UHaul? Where are the photos? Do the well-to-do even use UHauls? All sounds made up.

True. The people who are fleeing aren’t the types to use U-Hauls.
NYC election fears drive $100M+ Florida real estate surge as 'nervous' New Yorkers flee south
https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/nyc-e ... flee-south

So they listened to Kosplay kristi and they're voluntarily self deporting?

[BDKJMU]

Like he should specifically endorse someone who in 2022 called him a liability and said he should not run in 2024.

He did say in Oct:
“I haven’t been too much involved in Virginia — I love the state; I did very well in the state. I think the Republican candidate is very good, and she should win because the Democrat candidate is a disaster.”

Yesterday told people in VA to vote for Republicans up and down the ballot.

53 endorsements on Sunday and she wasn't one of them. Why not? Maybe because she called him a liability, maybe it's because she's black. He probably thinks she's "low IQ".

She wasn’t a good candidate. Conks fell into the identity politics trap that donks have fallen into.

I've been saying this the entire year: Winsome Earle-Sears is a fine woman, but a weak candidate. Yes, on paper she has great credentials: immigrant, U.S. Marine, businesswoman, public servant, and dedicated grandmother. And, yes, she likely would have been a capable governor…

…. Anecdotally, Earle-Sears spoke at my daughter's high school graduation back in May. What I saw alarmed me; she couldn't hold an audience of friendlies (this was a Christian school), her speech was disjointed and uninspiring, and we the audience were left confused as to what she was trying to say. Voters clearly felt the same way.

This tweet from back in January goes a long way to at least partially explain what happened. Earle-Sears didn't face any primary challengers, and, thus, was untested on her political strengths and weaknesses….

….

Now that’s not the #1 reason she lost. She lost because VA along with NJ are solid blue states in an off year election with a conk in the White House.
2017: Conk in WH, Gov Murphy won in NJ by 14 and Gov Ralph ‘Blackface’ Northam won VA by 9. In Va conks lose seats in both houses.
2021: Donk in WH, Murphy wins in NJ by less than 3, and Gov Youngkin wins in VA by less than 2. In VA Conks gain in both houses.
2025: Conk in WH, donks wins in NJ by 13 and 14.5 (so far). In Va conks lose seats in both houses.

[BDKJMU]

[UNI88]

The trumpscuses begin ...
- it was the shutdown
- it was because trump wasn't on the ballot
- carpetbaggers voted for him/her

It's never, ever trump's fault. He is a god amongst men and can do no wrong.

[BDKJMU]

True. The people who are fleeing aren’t the types to use U-Hauls.
NYC election fears drive $100M+ Florida real estate surge as 'nervous' New Yorkers flee south
https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/nyc-e ... flee-south

So they listened to Kosplay kristi and they're voluntarily self deporting?

Today- Sounds like the New Wall Street South. ‘Y’all Street.’

Why Major Financial Firms Are Expanding Texas Presence Beyond Traditional Wall Street Street Hub

Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs building 800K-square-foot Dallas campus while JPMorgan now has more Texas employees than NYC workers

…..Several of the nation's most prominent banks and financial institutions have built new campuses or increased their operational presence in Texas in recent years. The trend comes following many Americans' relocations during the COVID-19 pandemic away from high-tax states like New York and California to those with lower tax and regulatory burdens

Goldman Sachs

The investment bank and financial services firm is in the process of building a new 800,000-square-foot campus in Dallas that can house over 5,000 employees. The firm currently employs about 4,500 workers in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.

Goldman Sachs’ Dallas office is its second-largest in the U.S., trailing only New York City and its 7,800 workers within the firm. The new Dallas campus will house employees from across the firm's various businesses and divisions.

The new campus is scheduled to open in 2028 following the completion of construction, interiors and the migration of personnel.

JP Morgan Chase

The largest bank in the U.S. currently has about 31,000 employees in Texas, including 18,000 in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area. 

JP Morgan Chases’ headcount in the state of Texas is larger than in New York City, where it employs 24,000 workers. The firm has a campus in the suburb of Plano, which is where over 12,000 of those employees are located.

The Dallas Chamber of Commerce lists JPMorgan among its major employers, with more than 10,000 employees in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.

Wells Fargo

Late last month, Wells Fargo officially opened a new 22-acre campus that's home to a pair of 10-story office buildings that can house 4,500 workers.

The Dallas Chamber listed Wells Fargo as having between 5,000 and 9,999 employees in the metroplex.

Charles Schwab

Schwab relocated its corporate headquarters from California to the Dallas area nearly five years ago, when it opened a new campus in the suburb of Westlake.
Charles Schwab employs between 5,000 and 9,999 workers in the Dallas metro area, according to the Dallas Chamber's report.

Bank of America

Bank of America is in the process of building a new 30-story office building in Dallas, though it is keeping its headquarters in Charlotte. The firm's new tower is expected to be completed in 2027.
The Dallas Chamber notes that Bank of America has more than 10,000 employees in the metro area.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/why ... street-hub

[BDKJMU]

This is 2028, but since we don‘t have a 2028 Congressional & State elections thread yet, will put this here.

Scoop: Dems plot Fetterman ouster

Top Democrats in Pennsylvania are maneuvering to run against Sen. John Fetterman in a 2028 primary contest, threatening to tear the party apart in the biggest battleground state in the nation.

Why it matters: Democrats haven't flipped a GOP Senate seat since Fetterman did it in 2022. He's still popular with Pennsylvania voters, even as Democrats turn on him over his softened approach to President Trump.

Potential Democratic challengers are already bashing Fetterman — and each other — years ahead of schedule.
Some Democratic officials are openly contemplating running against Fetterman or keeping the door open to a Senate bid in the event he retires.

The big picture: Democrats who could run against Fetterman include Reps. Brendan Boyle and Chris Deluzio and former Rep. Conor Lamb, according to multiple political insiders in Pennsylvania…

https://www.axios.com/2025/10/16/john-f ... nnsylvania

Yes. Do it donks. Please primary Fetterman. Take a safe donk incumbent seat to tossup, maybe lean R after a long, nasty donk primary, in the most important swing state in the country, in a presidential election year too boot.

These donks might get their wish without ever having to primary him if he doesn‘t run again for health reasons.

[UNI88]

Justice Department sues to block California US House map in clash that could tip control of Congress

“California’s redistricting scheme is a brazen power grab that tramples on civil rights and mocks the democratic process,” Attorney General Pam Bondi said in an emailed statement. “Governor Newsom’s attempt to entrench one-party rule and silence millions of Californians will not stand.”

Newsom spokesperson Brandon Richards said in a statement, “These losers lost at the ballot box and soon they will also lose in court.”

The legal move marks the first time the Justice Department has sued over a flurry of unusual, mid-decade House map revisions across the country that were drawn to maximize partisan advantage in advance of next year's elections.
...
The Justice Department is joining a case challenging the new map that was brought by the California Republican Party last week. The Trump administration accuses California of racial gerrymandering in violation of the Constitution by using race as a factor to favor Hispanic voters with the new map. It asks a judge to prohibit California from using the new map in any future elections.

“Race cannot be used as a proxy to advance political interests, but that is precisely what the California General Assembly did with Proposition 50 — the recent ballot initiative that junked California’s pre-existing electoral map in favor of a rush-job rejiggering of California’s congressional district lines,” the lawsuit says.

Prop 50 was Newsom's response to Trump’s maneuvers in Texas, where Republicans rejiggered districts in hopes of picking up five seats of their own ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, when House control will be on the line.

Democrats need to gain just a handful of seats next year to take control of the chamber, which would imperil Trump's agenda for the remainder of his term and open the way for congressional investigations into his administration. Republicans hold 219 seats, to Democrats’ 214.

The showdown between the nation’s two most populous states has spread nationally, with Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio adopting new district lines that could provide a partisan advantage. Other states are considering similar moves.

Why are they only suing California? Why not Texas, Missouri, etc? They are just as much of a "brazen power grab that tramples on civil rights and mocks the democratic process".

This is so blatantly partisan. The DoJ used to at least try to be non-partisan. Under trump that's been thrown out the window, run over, backed up and run over again. It's pathetic, embarrassing, corrupt and about as far from making America great again as you can get.

[BDKJMU]

Justice Department sues to block California US House map in clash that could tip control of Congress

“California’s redistricting scheme is a brazen power grab that tramples on civil rights and mocks the democratic process,” Attorney General Pam Bondi said in an emailed statement. “Governor Newsom’s attempt to entrench one-party rule and silence millions of Californians will not stand.”

Newsom spokesperson Brandon Richards said in a statement, “These losers lost at the ballot box and soon they will also lose in court.”

The legal move marks the first time the Justice Department has sued over a flurry of unusual, mid-decade House map revisions across the country that were drawn to maximize partisan advantage in advance of next year's elections.
...
The Justice Department is joining a case challenging the new map that was brought by the California Republican Party last week. The Trump administration accuses California of racial gerrymandering in violation of the Constitution by using race as a factor to favor Hispanic voters with the new map. It asks a judge to prohibit California from using the new map in any future elections.

“Race cannot be used as a proxy to advance political interests, but that is precisely what the California General Assembly did with Proposition 50 — the recent ballot initiative that junked California’s pre-existing electoral map in favor of a rush-job rejiggering of California’s congressional district lines,” the lawsuit says.

Prop 50 was Newsom's response to Trump’s maneuvers in Texas, where Republicans rejiggered districts in hopes of picking up five seats of their own ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, when House control will be on the line.

Democrats need to gain just a handful of seats next year to take control of the chamber, which would imperil Trump's agenda for the remainder of his term and open the way for congressional investigations into his administration. Republicans hold 219 seats, to Democrats’ 214.

The showdown between the nation’s two most populous states has spread nationally, with Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio adopting new district lines that could provide a partisan advantage. Other states are considering similar moves.

Why are they only suing California? Why not Texas, Missouri, etc? They are just as much of a "brazen power grab that tramples on civil rights and mocks the democratic process".

This is so blatantly partisan. The DoJ used to at least try to be non-partisan. Under Biden that was thrown out the window, run over, backed up and run over again. It's pathetic, embarrassing, corrupt and about as far from making America great again as you can get.

FIFY.

[UNI88]

Justice Department sues to block California US House map in clash that could tip control of Congress

Why are they only suing California? Why not Texas, Missouri, etc? They are just as much of a "brazen power grab that tramples on civil rights and mocks the democratic process".

This is so blatantly partisan. The DoJ used to at least try to be non-partisan. Under Biden that was thrown out the window, run over, backed up and run over again. It's pathetic, embarrassing, corrupt and about as far from making America great again as you can get. trump took what biden did that could be considered "lawfare" and multiplied it by a gazillion.

FIFY.

And I added another sentence for accuracy sakes.

• How many times did the DoJ charge someone after biden posted that they should on social media?
• How many special prosecutors has trump appointed to keep some distance between the White House and the prosecutions of his opponents?
• How many Republicans have been charged with or are under investigation for mortgage fraud?
• How many watchdogs/ethics lawyers did biden fire so that there was little to no ethical oversight of his administration's actions?

I'm sure there's several examples of trump's unhinged, radical weaponization of the DoJ that I haven't listed.

[UNI88]

Response to Trump’s agenda key sticking point in Oregon 2026 governor’s race, poll says

The survey, released this week by North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling and paid for by the Democratic Governors Association, offers the clearest picture yet of the Oregon electorate since the president began his efforts to deploy the National Guard to Portland after calling the city a “war zone.” Six in 10 respondents said they opposed Trump sending the troops to Portland, while 38% reported favoring the move. Independents opposed the decision by 57% percent while 39% reported support.

More broadly, researchers found 61% of respondents prefer a candidate who will challenge Trump’s policies, while 34% said they were in favor of someone who will implement them. That could suggest an uphill journey to the governor’s mansion for the two Republicans vying for their party’s nomination: State Sen. Christine Drazan, R-Canby, and Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell.
...
Oregon’s 2026 governor race has drawn particular attention partly because of how close a Republican came to winning in 2022. Then-state Rep. Drazan lost to Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek by more than 3 percentage points, with nonaffiliated challenger Betsy Johnson, a former conservative Democratic state senator, winning 8.6% of the vote.

[houndawg]

Trump Decomposing Syndrome is real and continuing. At some point the amount of shit overcomes the diaper's restraining cables.

I can’t stop laughing at you sugar plumbs

Plums

[UNI88]

GOP frets ‘dangerous’ result in Tennessee

Republicans won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee. But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms.

Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps’ roughly nine point win marks a massive shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points. That double digit swing — on the heels of crushing losses in off-year elections in November — could be a harbinger of what House Republicans will face in the midterms next year, members and strategists warned, as they seek to hold on to their narrow control of the chamber.

“Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle,” said one House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.”
...
House Republican leadership had been preparing for Tuesday night’s results. And while Speaker Mike Johnson leadership’s team was bracing for a tighter-than-comfortable race, the single-digit margin was still a hard pill to swallow after national Republicans pulled out all the stops — including a Trump tele-rally and Johnson visit to the district — to rescue Van Epps in the final days.
...
One GOP consultant, granted anonymity to speak candidly, worried the result in Tennessee signals that Republican voters won’t turn out in significant numbers for candidates other than Trump — a problem that has plagued Republicans in the past.

"The Trump coalition is captivated by the force of his personality and willingness to disrupt the established order. There’s not much interest in supporting other ‘politicians’ when Trump isn’t on the ballot,” the consultant said. “The winds are likely to blow against Republicans in federal races in 2026. People are rarely satisfied anymore and they’re looking for someone to punish."

[kalm]

GOP frets ‘dangerous’ result in Tennessee

Republicans won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee. But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms.

Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps’ roughly nine point win marks a massive shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points. That double digit swing — on the heels of crushing losses in off-year elections in November — could be a harbinger of what House Republicans will face in the midterms next year, members and strategists warned, as they seek to hold on to their narrow control of the chamber.

“Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle,” said one House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.”
...
House Republican leadership had been preparing for Tuesday night’s results. And while Speaker Mike Johnson leadership’s team was bracing for a tighter-than-comfortable race, the single-digit margin was still a hard pill to swallow after national Republicans pulled out all the stops — including a Trump tele-rally and Johnson visit to the district — to rescue Van Epps in the final days.
...
One GOP consultant, granted anonymity to speak candidly, worried the result in Tennessee signals that Republican voters won’t turn out in significant numbers for candidates other than Trump — a problem that has plagued Republicans in the past.

"The Trump coalition is captivated by the force of his personality and willingness to disrupt the established order. There’s not much interest in supporting other ‘politicians’ when Trump isn’t on the ballot,” the consultant said. “The winds are likely to blow against Republicans in federal races in 2026. People are rarely satisfied anymore and they’re looking for someone to punish."

Nancy Mace is meeting MTG and considering retiring.

[GannonFan]

GOP frets ‘dangerous’ result in Tennessee

Republicans won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee. But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms.

Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps’ roughly nine point win marks a massive shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points. That double digit swing — on the heels of crushing losses in off-year elections in November — could be a harbinger of what House Republicans will face in the midterms next year, members and strategists warned, as they seek to hold on to their narrow control of the chamber.

“Tonight is a sign that 2026 is going to be a bitch of an election cycle,” said one House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Republicans can survive if we play team and the Trump administration officials play smart. Neither is certain.”
...
House Republican leadership had been preparing for Tuesday night’s results. And while Speaker Mike Johnson leadership’s team was bracing for a tighter-than-comfortable race, the single-digit margin was still a hard pill to swallow after national Republicans pulled out all the stops — including a Trump tele-rally and Johnson visit to the district — to rescue Van Epps in the final days.
...
One GOP consultant, granted anonymity to speak candidly, worried the result in Tennessee signals that Republican voters won’t turn out in significant numbers for candidates other than Trump — a problem that has plagued Republicans in the past.

"The Trump coalition is captivated by the force of his personality and willingness to disrupt the established order. There’s not much interest in supporting other ‘politicians’ when Trump isn’t on the ballot,” the consultant said. “The winds are likely to blow against Republicans in federal races in 2026. People are rarely satisfied anymore and they’re looking for someone to punish."

The GOP should be worried about 2026. What exactly is the GOP doing with their hold of power other than experimenting with the awful idea of tariffs as an economic model and doing clandestine and potentially illegal immigration enforcement? If that's their platform for 2026 they're going to lose the House and could lose the Senate (although that one's less likely). It's not as if the Dems really have any plan for government either, but in our two-party system when the party in power fails to govern well we turn to the other party (ala what we did in 2020 and 2024). At least in 2028 we'll get a real chance at a significant change as there'll be two new people vying for the top spot - just a chance, though, we could still end up with crappy candidates then.

[kalm]

GOP frets ‘dangerous’ result in Tennessee

The GOP should be worried about 2026. What exactly is the GOP doing with their hold of power other than experimenting with the awful idea of tariffs as an economic model and doing clandestine and potentially illegal immigration enforcement? If that's their platform for 2026 they're going to lose the House and could lose the Senate (although that one's less likely). It's not as if the Dems really have any plan for government either, but in our two-party system when the party in power fails to govern well we turn to the other party (ala what we did in 2020 and 2024). At least in 2028 we'll get a real chance at a significant change as there'll be two new people vying for the top spot - just a chance, though, we could still end up with crappy candidates then.

Yup.

[UNI88]