Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

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In other news, SeattleGriz destroys Costco with an impressive ground game by purchasing $338 in groceries in 20 minutes.

First team All American performance.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by UNI88 »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:51 am
In other news, SeattleGriz destroys Costco with an impressive ground game by purchasing $338 in groceries in 20 minutes.

First team All American performance.
:notworthy: That is impressive.

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Gil Dobie »

UNI88 wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:40 am
SeattleGriz wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:51 am
In other news, SeattleGriz destroys Costco with an impressive ground game by purchasing $338 in groceries in 20 minutes.

First team All American performance.
:notworthy: That is impressive.
Super shopper!
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by BDKJMU »

93henfan wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:29 pm
I'm taking an indefinite hiatus from this site, but before I go I wanted to share the Urban Dictionary definition I was just able to get published. Take care and be well everyone:

Going Pelosi:
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define. ... g%20Pelosi
Alpha, Chitz, and now you. What’s going on here with people disappearing?
BLM: Burning Looting Marxists

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by UNI88 »

BDKJMU wrote:
93henfan wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:29 pm
I'm taking an indefinite hiatus from this site, but before I go I wanted to share the Urban Dictionary definition I was just able to get published. Take care and be well everyone:

Going Pelosi:
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define. ... g%20Pelosi
Alpha, Chitz, and now you. What’s going on here with people disappearing?
89 is a cannibal and he's killing and eating them. Something about flesh of my flesh or something. :D

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by SDHornet »

UNI88 wrote:
Sun Sep 06, 2020 7:10 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Alpha, Chitz, and now you. What’s going on here with people disappearing?
89 is a cannibal and he's killing and eating them. Something about flesh of my flesh or something. :D

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:lol:

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Ibanez »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:51 am
In other news, SeattleGriz destroys Costco with an impressive ground game by purchasing $338 in groceries in 20 minutes.

First team All American performance.
Those are pro numbers. Are you working with a manager? You can go pro, son!!
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by SeattleGriz »

Ibanez wrote:
Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:36 am
SeattleGriz wrote:
Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:51 am
In other news, SeattleGriz destroys Costco with an impressive ground game by purchasing $338 in groceries in 20 minutes.

First team All American performance.
Those are pro numbers. Are you working with a manager? You can go pro, son!!
Ha! Pretty easy racking up those numbers as 50% of that was fish, beef and chicken.

Then I had to package and vac seal all that shit. Hate that part, but now I have a freezer full of fish, chicken, hamburger and steaks.

The steaks work out to around a 50% savings over my local store AND they are Prime to boot. The youngest gets a steak every other or third night.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

It is time to stop the Climate Change denial. Just stop. There was a time when I would say that the Climate Science Community was overplaying its hand by not allowing that the cause and effect statements they make are not based on controlled experiments. But the same criticism can be made with respect to the statement that smoking causes cancer.

We have gotten to the point now where it's obvious that there are issues. I was looking at the image below. So much tropical activity. Yesterday I saw that 2020 is shaping up to be the warming year on record and 2016 through 2020 is shaping up to be the warmest five year period on record.

I decided to just do my own trend test on the frequency of hurricanes. I used the table at http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm I did it for the entire period represented and I did it for just the last 100 years in the table. In both cases there is a highly significant trend towards having more hurricanes. It's obvious. It is happening. The frequency of hurricanes is increasing over time.

Please, people, stop listening to people like Rush Limbaugh. It is a real problem. If you value the future you will wake up and stop going along with the climate change denial nonsense.

BTW I still say that, technically, we're not supposed to make cause and effect statements. But enough is enough. The Republicans are on the wrong side of history at this point. They need to be swept out of the way so we can address this problem.

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:30 pm
It is time to stop the Climate Change denial. Just stop. There was a time when I would say that the Climate Science Community was overplaying its hand by not allowing that the cause and effect statements they make are not based on controlled experiments. But the same criticism can be made with respect to the statement that smoking causes cancer.

We have gotten to the point now where it's obvious that there are issues. I was looking at the image below. So much tropical activity. Yesterday I saw that 2020 is shaping up to be the warming year on record and 2016 through 2020 is shaping up to be the warmest five year period on record.

I decided to just do my own trend test on the frequency of hurricanes. I used the table at http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm I did it for the entire period represented and I did it for just the last 100 years in the table. In both cases there is a highly significant trend towards having more hurricanes. It's obvious. It is happening. The frequency of hurricanes is increasing over time.

Please, people, stop listening to people like Rush Limbaugh. It is a real problem. If you value the future you will wake up and stop going along with the climate change denial nonsense.

BTW I still say that, technically, we're not supposed to make cause and effect statements. But enough is enough. The Republicans are on the wrong side of history at this point. They need to be swept out of the way so we can address this problem.

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Thanks for the info. The climate has been changing since day 1.

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:30 pm
It is time to stop the Climate Change denial. Just stop. There was a time when I would say that the Climate Science Community was overplaying its hand by not allowing that the cause and effect statements they make are not based on controlled experiments. But the same criticism can be made with respect to the statement that smoking causes cancer.

We have gotten to the point now where it's obvious that there are issues. I was looking at the image below. So much tropical activity. Yesterday I saw that 2020 is shaping up to be the warming year on record and 2016 through 2020 is shaping up to be the warmest five year period on record.

I decided to just do my own trend test on the frequency of hurricanes. I used the table at http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm I did it for the entire period represented and I did it for just the last 100 years in the table. In both cases there is a highly significant trend towards having more hurricanes. It's obvious. It is happening. The frequency of hurricanes is increasing over time.

Please, people, stop listening to people like Rush Limbaugh. It is a real problem. If you value the future you will wake up and stop going along with the climate change denial nonsense.

BTW I still say that, technically, we're not supposed to make cause and effect statements. But enough is enough. The Republicans are on the wrong side of history at this point. They need to be swept out of the way so we can address this problem.

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How many hurricanes and tropical depressions/storms do you think there were that were never recorded prior to radar and satellites? Are you telling me that in 1851 we knew of EVERY hurricane/tropical depression on the planet like we do now? You don’t think there’s any chance that the data has been skewed higher by technological advancements? We didn’t have radar until the early 40’s. We didn’t have satellites in space until the late 50’s/early 60’s. Comparing data prior to that is like comparing apples and oranges.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:07 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:30 pm
It is time to stop the Climate Change denial. Just stop. There was a time when I would say that the Climate Science Community was overplaying its hand by not allowing that the cause and effect statements they make are not based on controlled experiments. But the same criticism can be made with respect to the statement that smoking causes cancer.

We have gotten to the point now where it's obvious that there are issues. I was looking at the image below. So much tropical activity. Yesterday I saw that 2020 is shaping up to be the warming year on record and 2016 through 2020 is shaping up to be the warmest five year period on record.

I decided to just do my own trend test on the frequency of hurricanes. I used the table at http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm I did it for the entire period represented and I did it for just the last 100 years in the table. In both cases there is a highly significant trend towards having more hurricanes. It's obvious. It is happening. The frequency of hurricanes is increasing over time.

Please, people, stop listening to people like Rush Limbaugh. It is a real problem. If you value the future you will wake up and stop going along with the climate change denial nonsense.

BTW I still say that, technically, we're not supposed to make cause and effect statements. But enough is enough. The Republicans are on the wrong side of history at this point. They need to be swept out of the way so we can address this problem.

Image
How many hurricanes and tropical depressions/storms do you think there were that were never recorded prior to radar and satellites? Are you telling me that in 1851 we knew of EVERY hurricane/tropical depression on the planet like we do now? You don’t think there’s any chance that the data has been skewed higher by technological advancements? We didn’t have radar until the early 40’s. We didn’t have satellites in space until the late 50’s/early 60’s. Comparing data prior to that is like comparing apples and oranges.
The reason I did 100 years is that I recognized the fact that they could have missed some of them in 1851. With all the shipping going on and such I figure it's reasonable to think that by 1920, if there was a hurricane in the Atlantic, they knew about it.

I did a couple of things before I came back and saw your post. One is that I noted that the table I used only goes through 2017 so I added 2018 and 2019. The other thing I did was Google to find that the first US weather satellite was launched in 1960. I did the trend analysis and there was still an association significant at 95.4 percent confidence between elapsed time in years and number of Atlantic hurricanes.

I realize that I don't know anything about that first weather satellite. Maybe it would not have detected Atlantic hurricanes. But I thought that would be a good way to pick a later starting point. In any case I think it's very reasonable to believe that by 1960 any Atlantic hurricane would have been detected.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

Where did you add 2018 and 2019? Because on that chart the peak appears to be 2005.

40 hurricanes in the 12 years prior to 2005. 36 hurricanes in the 12 years SINCE 2005 (neither data set including 2005).

That doesn’t scream to me that there’s some huge shift in weather patterns over the past 25 years....
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

Baldy wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:47 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:30 pm
It is time to stop the Climate Change denial. Just stop. There was a time when I would say that the Climate Science Community was overplaying its hand by not allowing that the cause and effect statements they make are not based on controlled experiments. But the same criticism can be made with respect to the statement that smoking causes cancer.

We have gotten to the point now where it's obvious that there are issues. I was looking at the image below. So much tropical activity. Yesterday I saw that 2020 is shaping up to be the warming year on record and 2016 through 2020 is shaping up to be the warmest five year period on record.

I decided to just do my own trend test on the frequency of hurricanes. I used the table at http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm I did it for the entire period represented and I did it for just the last 100 years in the table. In both cases there is a highly significant trend towards having more hurricanes. It's obvious. It is happening. The frequency of hurricanes is increasing over time.

Please, people, stop listening to people like Rush Limbaugh. It is a real problem. If you value the future you will wake up and stop going along with the climate change denial nonsense.

BTW I still say that, technically, we're not supposed to make cause and effect statements. But enough is enough. The Republicans are on the wrong side of history at this point. They need to be swept out of the way so we can address this problem.

Image
Thanks for the info. The climate has been changing since day 1.
That is true. But we are dealing with a situation in which people started predicted change based on human activity in a general way in the 1970s and they have been correct with respect to the basic picture. Holding the position that we are not having an effect has become untenable. What's going on with the climate is different than it would be without what we're doing.

Seriously. It's time to stop the denial. We can talk about stuff like whether or not we can do anything to, for instance, stop or slow the trend towards increasing Atlantic Hurricane frequency at this point. We can talk about whether the benefit of stopping or slowing the trend exceeds the cost of doing what we'd need to do to have chance of doing it. But the time to keep claiming that nothing is going on has passed.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

You haven’t even made a legitimate case that there IS “increasing Atlantic hurricane frequency” yet. Let’s not just accept that as settled science....your data shows no such thing.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:38 pm
You haven’t even made a legitimate case that there IS “increasing Atlantic hurricane frequency” yet. Let’s not just accept that as settled science....your data shows no such thing.
Yes I have. There are definitely positive associations over 1851 - 2020 (I added 2020 so far), 1920 - 2020, and 1960 over 2020.

If you just do the past 25 years (I'll do it as 1996 through 2020 so far), you get very little association. If expressed as a correlation coefficient it is very close to zero and is even negative. It equates to being less than 50:50 confident that there is an association at all (48%). So there isn't a trend over the past 25 years.

But there are obvious reasons for that. One is that when you do that you have narrowed the range of the independent variable (time). Unless the association is very strong (the correlation is very high) you will always lose "significance" at some point when you do that. The other reason is that 2005 was indeed the most active season every. Most named storms. Most hurricanes. Most major hurricanes. If you just do the last 25 years 2005 is going to be in the first half of that period.

But when you look at reasonably long time frames there is a positive association. It's also true that the past 25 years as a whole had high average frequency. For example: If you compare 1996 through 2020 (so far) to the 25 year period previous to that (1971 through 1995) you find that the average number of hurricanes during 1996 through 2020 is 7.3 while that for 1971 through 1995 is 5.2. The difference is significant at >99 percent confidence.

So, yes, if you look at just the most recent 25 years you don't see a trend within that period. But if you look at reasonably long time frames there is clearly a trend and you can see that the most recent 25 years.

I noticed another interesting way to look at it. I calculated the average for every 25 year period beginning with 1851 through 1875. There was never a 25 year period with an average of at least 7 hurricanes until the one that ended with 2012 (1988- 2012). So for 137 years starting with the first year (1875) where a 25 year period can be evaluated it never happened. Now it's happened 7 times in the past 9 years. And it's not just because 2005 is included. 2005 was in the 25 year periods ending with 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

I think that anybody who looks at the trends objectively without trying to go out of their way to try to find SOME way to break things down to claim it isn't happening would conclude that is a trend towards greater hurricane frequency over time. Also trends towards greater numbers of named storms as well as towards greater numbers of major hurricanes (I've looked at that too).
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

This morning I mentioned to my brother that one reason I started looking at this is just a qualitative impression that it seems to be worse to me than it did during the early part of my life living in South Louisiana. I decided to see if the perception is consistent with reality. I decided to look at the years during which I was aware enough to notice things. I picked 1962, when I started first grade, through 1985, when I moved to Georgia.

That's 24 years. So just to make the period equal I looked at the most recent 24 years including this one so far. That's 1997 through 2020. This time I looked at total named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

During my younger days of 1962 through 1985, there were averages os 9.9 named storms, 5.5 hurricanes, and 1.9 major hurricanes.

During my older days of 1997 through 2020, the averages are 14.9 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.

Individually, the differences involving named storms and major hurricanes are significant at >99 percent confidence while that involving hurricanes is significant at 97 percent confidence. When I adjust for multiple comparisons, it's >99 percent for named storms, 97 percent for major hurricanes, and 92 percent for hurricanes.

So, yes, it has indeed been worse.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by HI54UNI »

It's lack of piracy John.

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by Ibanez »

HI54UNI wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:52 pm
It's lack of piracy John.

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Seems Legit. I guess the Somali pirates didn't do enough to alter the downward trajectory. :coffee:
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:08 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:38 pm
You haven’t even made a legitimate case that there IS “increasing Atlantic hurricane frequency” yet. Let’s not just accept that as settled science....your data shows no such thing.
Yes I have. There are definitely positive associations over 1851 - 2020 (I added 2020 so far), 1920 - 2020, and 1960 over 2020.

If you just do the past 25 years (I'll do it as 1996 through 2020 so far), you get very little association. If expressed as a correlation coefficient it is very close to zero and is even negative. It equates to being less than 50:50 confident that there is an association at all (48%). So there isn't a trend over the past 25 years.

But there are obvious reasons for that. One is that when you do that you have narrowed the range of the independent variable (time). Unless the association is very strong (the correlation is very high) you will always lose "significance" at some point when you do that. The other reason is that 2005 was indeed the most active season every. Most named storms. Most hurricanes. Most major hurricanes. If you just do the last 25 years 2005 is going to be in the first half of that period.

But when you look at reasonably long time frames there is a positive association. It's also true that the past 25 years as a whole had high average frequency. For example: If you compare 1996 through 2020 (so far) to the 25 year period previous to that (1971 through 1995) you find that the average number of hurricanes during 1996 through 2020 is 7.3 while that for 1971 through 1995 is 5.2. The difference is significant at >99 percent confidence.

So, yes, if you look at just the most recent 25 years you don't see a trend within that period. But if you look at reasonably long time frames there is clearly a trend and you can see that the most recent 25 years.

I noticed another interesting way to look at it. I calculated the average for every 25 year period beginning with 1851 through 1875. There was never a 25 year period with an average of at least 7 hurricanes until the one that ended with 2012 (1988- 2012). So for 137 years starting with the first year (1875) where a 25 year period can be evaluated it never happened. Now it's happened 7 times in the past 9 years. And it's not just because 2005 is included. 2005 was in the 25 year periods ending with 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

I think that anybody who looks at the trends objectively without trying to go out of their way to try to find SOME way to break things down to claim it isn't happening would conclude that is a trend towards greater hurricane frequency over time. Also trends towards greater numbers of named storms as well as towards greater numbers of major hurricanes (I've looked at that too).
One could also interpret that word salad as simply saying “the increase has flattened over the past 25 years.” Because that’s essentially what “less than a 50% confidence level” implies.
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

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:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

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AZGrizFan wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:41 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:08 am


Yes I have. There are definitely positive associations over 1851 - 2020 (I added 2020 so far), 1920 - 2020, and 1960 over 2020.

If you just do the past 25 years (I'll do it as 1996 through 2020 so far), you get very little association. If expressed as a correlation coefficient it is very close to zero and is even negative. It equates to being less than 50:50 confident that there is an association at all (48%). So there isn't a trend over the past 25 years.

But there are obvious reasons for that. One is that when you do that you have narrowed the range of the independent variable (time). Unless the association is very strong (the correlation is very high) you will always lose "significance" at some point when you do that. The other reason is that 2005 was indeed the most active season every. Most named storms. Most hurricanes. Most major hurricanes. If you just do the last 25 years 2005 is going to be in the first half of that period.

But when you look at reasonably long time frames there is a positive association. It's also true that the past 25 years as a whole had high average frequency. For example: If you compare 1996 through 2020 (so far) to the 25 year period previous to that (1971 through 1995) you find that the average number of hurricanes during 1996 through 2020 is 7.3 while that for 1971 through 1995 is 5.2. The difference is significant at >99 percent confidence.

So, yes, if you look at just the most recent 25 years you don't see a trend within that period. But if you look at reasonably long time frames there is clearly a trend and you can see that the most recent 25 years.

I noticed another interesting way to look at it. I calculated the average for every 25 year period beginning with 1851 through 1875. There was never a 25 year period with an average of at least 7 hurricanes until the one that ended with 2012 (1988- 2012). So for 137 years starting with the first year (1875) where a 25 year period can be evaluated it never happened. Now it's happened 7 times in the past 9 years. And it's not just because 2005 is included. 2005 was in the 25 year periods ending with 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

I think that anybody who looks at the trends objectively without trying to go out of their way to try to find SOME way to break things down to claim it isn't happening would conclude that is a trend towards greater hurricane frequency over time. Also trends towards greater numbers of named storms as well as towards greater numbers of major hurricanes (I've looked at that too).
One could also interpret that word salad as simply saying “the increase has flattened over the past 25 years.” Because that’s essentially what “less than a 50% confidence level” implies.

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by 89Hen »

JSO, honest question... How well did they track hurricanes that never made it past the middle of the Atlantic Ocean in the first half of the 1900's?

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SeattleGriz
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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by SeattleGriz »

It's all Trump's fault. I used to think TDS was just an annoying phrase to be used to agitate those it was used upon, but nope, it's real.

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Re: Miscellaneous news items that don't warrant their own thread

Post by UNI88 »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:33 pm
It's all Trump's fault. I used to think TDS was just an annoying phrase to be used to agitate those it was used upon, but nope, it's real.

The article itself is less inflammatory and states that "the data, though, suggest President Trump’s own appeal is the cause." Trump's Presidency has not turned out nearly as badly for Hispanics as they feared it would based on his rhetoric during the 2016 campaign. Lower taxes and family values should appeal to a lot of Hispanic voters if they're not turned off by demonizing immigrants.

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