MVFC Week 11/2/2019

[JBB]

**********FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE**********
GAM Labs Publishing October 28, 2019

Just ripped:
5Dimes added Oct 30

NDSU* @ YSU
GAM: NDSU -13; O/U 49; Mythical score NDSU 31-18

5 Dimes: NDSU -18; O/U 51.5
Actual Score: NDSU 56-17 The Bison are starting to get the machine balanced and oiled to perfection

SDSU* @ MSU
GAM: SDSU -19; O/U 51; Mythical score SDSU 35-16

5 Dimes: SDSU -25; O/U 51
Actual Score: SDSU 35-14

USD* @ WIU
GAM: USD -7; O/U 57; Mythical score USD 32-25

5 Dimes: USD -13.5; O/U 58
Actual Score: WIU 38-34 It must have been a great game. MVFC upset of the year so far!

SIU* @ INDS
GAM: SIU -4; O/U 50; Mythical score SIU 27-23

5 Dimes: SIU -8; O/U 44.5
Actual Score: SIU 23-14

UNI @ ILS*
GAM: ILS -1; O/U 43; Mythical score ILS 22-21

5 Dimes: UNI -1; O/U 33
Actual Score: UNI 27-10

[JBB]

Current projected finish for the MVFC. Conference games only.

Week 11/2

• NDSU 8-0 Last week 8-0 Actual 4-0
  SDSU 7-1 Last week 7-1 Actual 3-1
  ILS 5-3 Last week 3-5 Actual 3-1
  UNI 4-4 Last week 5-3 Actual 3-1
  SIU 4-4 Last week 4-4 Actual 2-2
  YSU 4-4 Last week 1-7 Actual 1-3 What a difference a week can make
  USD 3-5 Last week 3-5 Actual 2-2
  INDS 2-6 Last week 2-6 Actual 1-3
  WIU 1-7 Last week 1-7 Actual 0-4
  MSU 0-8 Last week 0-8 Actual 1-3

The middle 3 teams are certainly on the playoff bubble this week. The top 3 should be in if they picked the field now.

Conference tightened up with several teams moving their power ranking under 1. SDSU took some salt out of the Bison moving NDSUs ranking from under .49 to .501. The middle 3 teams are all improving. MSU has the #1 pass defense in the league. USD the #1 pass offense.

[JBB]

Discussion came up about the long field. Contrary to popular opinion the long field is a huge advantage. For one thing how can you build up 400-500 yds/game on a short field or dominate TOP?

For NDSU it has often been the harbinger of good things. One of those times was 2003. Coach Bohl took the Bison to Missoula for one of the greatest upsets in Bison lore. At one crucial point the Bison held the Griz with a sack resulting in a punt and the long field.

The Bison took the advantage, drove the field and in the end won the game. My play by play is in my notes in front of me. The history of the long field and the Bison is like that: it is an advantage.

This was Phil Hansens first broadcast. It was a flash of greatness for the legendary Coach Bohl . All Bison fans will enjoy these highlights. The March was on! It was a huge upset. The GAM had it nailed and it is a matter of record on BisonVille. if the thread is still there you can link it with permission from the author. It was the football game of the ages.

Here are the highlights (this is a full color video feed):

First half: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=20 ... ORM=VDRVRV

Second Half: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=20 ... ORM=VDRVRV

Ps. Bison win on a missed Montana FG. Karma took it back a couple yrs later when the winning NDSU FG Bounced off the upright giving the victory to the Gang Bang Minnesota Gophers. After paying that price The Bison got it all back beating the GB Gophers convincingly in the next 2 games.

The Minnesota Gopher sports culture is very sick. They need to register coaches and players as sex offenders before traveling. Nobody should ever take a transfer from them. Ask TN State about that hard learned lesson.

[JBB]

The UNI game has been upgraded to review status.

[JBB]

NDSU BISON vs AGS Top 10:

• JMU -2 A real and present danger to the supremacy of the Bison
  SDSU -5
  Weber -8
  Sac State -10
  Montana -6
  UNI -9 we saw earlier they don't match up well with the Bison
  ILS -10
  KSU -1 Remains -1 and the best shot to defeat the Bison, at least on the face of it
  CArk -14

Personally I don't think Kennesaw State can beat the Bison. The option attack is effective but there is simply too much speed and physicality to overcome when trying to unleash it against the Herd. At this level the QB is toast. Getting hit every play because mostly the QB is established as a running back and losses all QB protection.

They are an impressive statistical machine however. The glaring weakness is 85 yds passing/game. That's offset by their defense only allowing 82 yds rushing/game. I don't think that stat is going to hold against the Bison averaging 297 yds/game with a gallery of running backs, receivers and of course Trey Lance at QB.

I also believe the Owls 370 yds rushing/game is going to be slowed down considerably by the speed and physicality of the Bison D line, LB and Defensive backs. They arent going to get much outside. Lets see how the dive is going to work? I did see some interesting roll out option passing from them. They should be working on that. It adds a necessary dimension.

[JBB]

The long field can come in a lot of ways. Against Kansas State there were 9 minutes left Bison on KSU 20 with 3rd and ten trailing by 4. 80 yds and 8 minutes later the Bison scored to win the game.

That wasn't by definition a long field. Inside the 10 is required. Its not a good oman for most teams, but can be. It is often a good oman for NDSU. In fact in the game notes of the 2003 Montana upset there are 2 exclamation points after the expression: Bison get long field!! It resulted in a Bison TD after a long drive using a reverse to get it in from the 11.

The Delaware fans might be a little unhappy too. The Bison used a fake FG to score the winning TD.

Watch your teams success in these situations and never begrudge the long field.

[JBB]

Just off the wire:

Look for the upset:

RESULTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AS OF NOVEMBER 1, 2019

From Gam Labs:
Weber State* @ Sac State
Weber State -1; O/U: 62; Mythical Score: WSU 31-30

From 5 Dimes: Sacramento -7; O/U 52

Webers rushing game may overwhelm providing the points necessary to upset the favored Sac State. Weber 183yds/game vs Sac State allowing 249. Looks like it may be a miss-match in an otherwise very close game.

Another terrible weakness Sac State has the short field for opposing offenses: 79 yds vs. 119 for Weber!

I'm surprised it's only 1 point but that is testament to how good Sac State is on offense.

5 Dimes is offering $100 for $210 for Weber to win outright.

You have to pay $290 to win $100 if you pick Sac State.

The call is in we are down for $200 to win $410 on Weber State.
No actually $420.
Thanks,

Go Wildcats!

[JBB]

There may be an error in the statistical download function of the Sac State. Programmers are checking it now. Golden Arm Productions is down with their chits but we advise caution on this one until the situation is cleared up. They are reviewing the data now. There will be a full report as soon as the problem is understood and corrected.

[JBB]

**********FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE**********
GAM Labs Publishing, November 1, 2019

The GAM error has been discovered. Sac State has allowed 156 points. 256 was found in that cell. That is a manual entry cell. All other the entries are correct.

There was already a protocol in place for checking basic data entry as each form is complete. That effort will have to be improved.

Checking of basic data entry is not part of the required protocol when a game enters Analysis Status. That policy has been changed and it is now required as a last safeguard before Analysis Status can be upgraded to On The Line.

The game analysis remains the same. Weber's advantage in the air is still there. Unfortunately that advantage, with the correct data, is no longer enough. With the correct data it's no longer a WSU upset by 1.

Weber State Wildcats @ Sac State Hornets
Sac State -5; O/U 55; Mythical Score Sac State 30-25.

[JBB]

The data problem makes this weeks On The Line more interesting than most weeks. The GAM provides a true picture of a football teams efficiency on both sides of the ball. As a sports book it has been extremely generous with the wins. Results are usually in line with 5 Dimes.

Both books suffer from the AGS syndrome. Early season money is often the best. As we have experienced again this year the GAM sets up for early season comparisons very accurately.

5 Dimes is a dynamic book changing odds with the flow of money. A good book comes out tight and right. No bets have advantages over others. A loose book comes out looking for action. Early bets are often smart money knowing the real lines. These loose lines are of course quickly corrected by the money flowing to the easy mark.

The data entry error has caused the GAM's line to be off by 6 in favor of Sac State. Now to get the 1 point win Weber will need 6 more than expected in a lower scoring game.

It also effected the fields mythical length. Sacs defense is now playing on a 129 yard field.

We get the juice on the in-line bet Weber to win but would rather have the 7 points. Currently we are considering hedging the in line made on the flawed analysis by taking the points. Unfortunately its $120 to win $100 either way. you're paying the house 20% vig/juice/slice on the losing bet just for the privilege to play.

[JBB]

Wow. Weber State came out took control and never looked back in a physical and fun game to watch. Golden Arm Productions picks up a quick $420!

Yes sir, cash will be fine and keep this for yourself.

[JBB]

Tough week for the GAM with the 3 factor grid. There were 15 possible, 2 washes and 7 correct for 53.8%. That qualifies for guessing. Throw the upset out, it suddenly becomes a 70% success rate. You can't get away from Any Given Saturday. Its dangerous out there.

The apparent black swan Weber @ Sac State game turned into a white swan. a Golden Arm Productions rode the Weber State upset for a huge week and $420 in winnings. The total in The Sports Bank is now $2,035, not bad for a $100 seed.

The GAM only had 3 of 5 winners. Lots of threads around the net have guessers doing better than that. They know their game but are only participating in 1/3 of it. To expand out to the three critical factors: Winner&spread, O/U & outright winner complicates things. The GAM answers all 3 of those questions and really delivers where it counts: at the pay window.

Its a great week coming up. GAM Labs is in dissaray as all equipment, lodges and stock animals will be moving cross country to Florida. Don't know how much productive work we can get done. A lot of this equipment is heavy and requires a lot of extra effort from the wheel and mill wrights.

Our coal pile is down to under 1 ton. A nice inventory to have when we set up again next year in the great north country. Now its on to Florida to enjoy solar power and the completely ridiculous subsides we receive from you the taxpayer for installing it, not to mention the guaranteed return no matter how much power we can actually produce and what it costs. These solar arrays are simply a wonderful and hugely profitable boondoggle, but keep yourselves plugged in. Its not very reliable.

Thank you greenies! We love you!