MVFC 10/19/2019

[JBB]

**********FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE**********
GAM Labs publishing date Oct 13, 2019

This weeks projected outcomes for the MVFC:
5 dimes added October 16

MSU @ NDSU*
GAM: NDSU -26; O/U 58; Mythical score NDSU 42-16

5 Dimes: NDSU -40; O/U 61

SDSU* @ INDS
GAM: SDSU -12; O/U 44; Mythical score SDSU 28-16

5 Dimes: SDSU -19; O/U 42

USD @ UNI*
GAM: UNI -2; O/U 56; Mythical score UNI 29-27
expect a tremendous game with 2 equally matched teams.

5 Dimes: UNI -6.5; O/U 43

YSU* @ SIU
GAM: YSU -4; O/U 60; Mythical score YSU 32-28

5 Dimes: YSU -4; O/U 55.5

ISU* @ WIU
GAM: ISU -14; O/U 42; Mythical score ISU 28-14

5 Dimes: ISU -14; O/U 37.5

[JBB]

**********FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE**********
GAM Labs publishing date Oct 13, 2019

Projected MVFC finish. The last 4 teams are equally matched. Expect some great games when they get together. Worth the ticket price.

UNI & USD are equally matched but a step up. That's a must watch game.

YSU, NDSU, SDSU are the elite teams this week. All break under 1 on the GAM strength index, a neighborhood reserved for the best teams. YSU is .8294, SDSU .5546, NDSU .4937 (elite in the FCS)

Not looking ahead but GAM Labs has NDSU a 5 point favorite for the 10/26 match-up with SDSU at The new stadium complex in Brookings. Yes it is The Dakota Marker Game. It is also clearly for the de facto college football championship of the Dakotas. That's the big game folks. Both appear to be coming in as elite squads determined to win.

USD will get a shot at both in the Dakota College Football Championship round robin but right now are projected as solid underdogs in both games.

UND, a potential non-scholarship school, is not participating. They lost to NDSU earlier this year 39-10. Their kids gave a nice effort and earned everyone's respect.

Week 10/19

NDSU 8-0 Last week 8-0 Actual 2-0
SDSU 7-1 Last week 7-1 Actual 2-0
YSU 5-3 Last week 5-3 Actual 0-2
ILS 5-3 Last week 4-4 Actual 1-1
USD 4-4 Last week 4-4 Actual 2-0
UNI 3-5 Last week 5-3 Actual 1-1 Big loss knocks a team back
SIU 2-6 Last week 3-5 Actual 0-2
INDS 2-6 Last week 2-6 Actual 1-1 #1 pass defense MVFC
WIU 1-7 Last week 1-7 Actual 0-2
MSU 0-8 Last week 0-8 Actual 1-1

[JBB]

From Bisonville the road map to the FBS:

Step 1: apply for waiver to go independent in FBS football (receive waiver or sue); remain in Summit for other sports
Step 2: schedule all the other independents looking for opponents (they amount to practically a conference already)
Step 3: build FBS resume kicking everyone's ass
Step 4: tell MWC to pound sand when they finally invite; accept B12 invite instead

FBS INDEPENDENTS:

These independents would make a good FBS scheduling alliance with NDSU/SDSU

• Liberty
  New Mexico State
  UConn?
  UMass

That’s 4/5 games. The Gophers every year in Mnpls, 1 Big 10, 1 Big 12, 1 Mac/home home, 1 MWC/HH, an FCS maybe 2, pick up a big game every few years, PAC 12 etc and away you go, THE big college football draw in the upper Midwest.

Late season games in Fl. 2 for 1 with Hawaii. Great travel for fans. Big games every year. It’s a nice looking alternative. But NDSU isn’t really ready. They need the inside practice facility for sure. Otherwise, in many ways they are ready for launch and I think the count-down, probably with SDSU, is on.

FBS Great Independent Football Alliance. 6 affiliates bowl eligible.

[AZGrizFan]

Minnesota is 6-0...you guys go 4-7 with that schedule.

[JBB]

Maybe. The Gophers are 32 and NDSU 35 in Sagarin and NDSU does it without the benefit of their schedule.

The Bison have 8 games that should be easy to get: Ball State, Cent Conn, Co State, Minnesota, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa and Iowa State. Some of these could easily be home/home and if the Gophers have any sense we would play them every year in Mnpls. The Bison have Target Field.

Make that 9: Georgia Southern guaranteed HH maybe APP State too. Central FL, Florida State or the U?

Wyoming is a guaranteed HH.

There is the annual game in Fargo with UND unless they quit again. Lots of FCS rivals to schedule over the years. It seems workable.

The SDSU Marker game would be huge once again elevated to the undisputed Dakota College Football Championship. SDSU would solidify its hold on Sioux Falls even with the inevitable Augie move up.

From that basis growth could continue. Right now it has plateaued and it’s obvious there is still a lot left on the table.

[JBB]

Minnesota is 6-0...you guys go 4-7 with that schedule.

I took a moment and asked the kind programmers at GAM Labs to run a mythical schedule. NDSU would probably go 10-1 with this schedule, this week, this year:

NDSU vs

• Gophers +7
  Liberty +11
  SDSU +5
  New Mexico State +20
  UConn +21
  Oregon -5
  UMass +23
  GSU +12
  Kansas State +4
  Wyoming +6
  Iowa State +2

toss in a black swan or two say 7-4

possible to go 11-0 too. Just need a pick six like the Bison got in Iowa.

There is no reason NDSU/SDSU couldn't have a schedule similar to that every year. All they need is the association of independent FBS schools to band together. Montana would help too, maybe Idaho is ready to get back in? In the end NDSU and SDSU won't need them if they can band together with those independents. Games shouldn't be hard to find.

SDSU was better than the Gophers and should have won

UNI was better than Iowa State and should have won

[AZGrizFan]

You guys should just play Alabama 11 times.

[JBB]

Re: MVFC 10/19/2019
by AZGrizFan » Sun Oct 13, 2019 4:09 pm

You guys should just play Alabama 11 times.

Why?

The biggest problem as an FBS independent is getting home games. On the other hand OOC home games are costing NDSU FBS money now and darn hard to get because nobody in the division dares play. JMU was the latest to turn tail.

The FBS is very reluctant to schedule NDSU too. The loss is crippling. The FCS tomato cans get games though because the FBS is looking to the FCS for guaranteed wins. They get that with the UNDs of this division. It’s teams like that that have a chance at 11 Bama games if anybody does. Those types of teams are as desperate for money as Bama is for easy wins.

NDSU is working on a scheduling alliance that might make this possible. Right now there are 2 Big Games in front of the Bison: Oregon & AZ. In the meantime there is the FCS to practice on with some great games on the slate, possible playoffs and National Championship.

NDSU is the Bama of the FCS, heck NDSU is just about the Bama of all college football.

[JBB]

Here's a little closer look:

NDSU vs

• Gophers +7
  • NDSU has 20% more points have given up 50% fewer yds have more total yds and given up far fewer pts
  Liberty +11
  • NDSU has scored 100 more pts, gained 500 more yds and given up 800 fewer yds
  SDSU +5
  • Elite FCS program right in there with this list
  New Mexico State +20
  • About all they do well is gain yds. They give up yds (2,000 more than NDSU) score far fewer points and let their opponents seemingly score at will
  UConn +21
  • on paper a very weak football team
  Oregon -5
  • This is a squad playing the game to near perfection
  UMass +23
  • nothing to see here folks
  GSU +12
  • The Bison have outscored them by 150 and given up 90 fewer pts. NDSU has 1,500+ more yds and given up 300 less than GSU this season
  Kansas State +4
  • This would be a great contest. The Bison have a superior offense but it is a little more equal on defense
  Wyoming +6
  • Take the over Bison to cover
  Iowa State +2
  • Matches up well, could be a score fest.

NDSU was given a drag coefficient for the FBS comparisons.

Those scores are the first run, called "The Line" . Normally GAM Labs publishes The Line.

When compared to Las Vegas, interesting lines are moved up to analysis. The GAM is tweeked if, believed necessary, to better represent what is likely to happen. If a line still looks good it could move up to the status of a bet or "On The Line" status.

[JBB]

NDSU vs The AGS Top 10:

• JMU +4
  • The JMU dynasty is one dynasty you don't want to miss
  SDSU +5
  • Dont look ahead to next week for the Dakota College Football Championship represented by the Dakota Marker Stone.
  Weber State+12
  Montana +6
  Villanova +5
  Furman +3
  • They match up well but look for the Bison to win, cover and take the over
  Nichols State +15
  Kennesaw State +2
  • They match up well but look for the Bison to win, cover and take the over
  Sacramento State +3
  • Sac State has joined the elite teams SDSU & NDSU. This is another great FCS game brewing in the wings

[kalm]

You guys should just play Alabama 11 times.

At a neutral site of course.

[JBB]

GAM Ranking of the AGS Top 10 as of 10/14/19:

• #1: Sac State .4261
  2: NDSU .4937
  3: SDSU .5546
  4: Weber State .5952
  5: Villanova .6439
  6: Montana .6521
  7: Furman .6661
  8: Kennesaw State .6722
  9: JMU .6834
  10: Nichols State .9543

[Gil Dobie]

Minnesota is 6-0...you guys go 4-7 with that schedule.

SDSU had done well with their schedule.

[JBB]

*********GAME PREVIEW**********
GAM Labs October 16, 2019

MONTANA @ SACRAMENTO STATE*

Sac State -3; O/U 59; Mythical score Sac State 31-28

This should be a tremendous football game. These are top tier FCS football teams which puts them among the nations best. Both will bring stellar and very productive offenses. Montana can put up the yards especially in the air. Sac State about the same.

The defenses give up a lot too. Both defenses are allowing over 400 yds. This will probably keep them out of Frisco but makes them very competitive and exciting teams to watch. The big difference is scoring. Sac State does not allow their opponents to score. They are 15th in country for scoring defense, Montana 29. That is the edge. The GAM believes you will find it in the red zone.

5 Dimes: Montana -2.5; O/U: 62

This is a reversal of the GAM and puts this game in Analysis Status.

**********GAME PREVIEW**********

UND @ Cal Poly*

GAM: CAL Poly* -1; O/U 65; Mythical Score Cal Poly 33-32

5 Dimes: UND -1; O/U 60.5.

This is a reversal of the GAM and puts this game in Analysis Status.

These 2 football teams aren't among the best but this match-up certainly may be. Cal Poly depends on the run and should get everything they are accustom to on Saturday, probably more. On the other hand UND can pass, pass, pass and Cal Poly may find there is little they can do.

That about sums this one up except for one thing: travel. Look at UND's debacle last week. They arrived in Pocatello 12 hours before kick-off and hadn't even checked into the hotel yet. I hope they realize this is twice as far and they sent the horse trailers with all the equipment out a couple days ahead of time. I have no Idea if the team is flying, driving or taking the train.

[JBB]

There was no action in the GAM Sports Book last week.

Just off the wire:

We aren't picking up on the UND or Montana games.

ILS* @ WIU

We put $120 to win $100 on ILS to cover 14 and
$120 to win $100 on the over 37.5

The book offered by Las Vegas is very stingy. After the loss and the worst week ever in week 6 the bank stands at $1,170. A wipe-out this week leaves $930, a critically low level that will force the GAMs book into an even more conservative stance.

The Las Vegas FCS sports book has become very defensive. Lots of juice and the odds are always just out of reach on all FCS teams we follow. The idea is to get to the playoffs with a nice bank. They will make mistakes in the playoffs that can be profitable. They have in the past. It can be almost as lucrative as the early season betting.

[JBB]

Can NDSU cover 40? They covered 30 three times, 40 once. UCD has a claim to fame and kept the margin under 20. The juice on Bison to cover is the same as MSU +40: 120 to win 100. It’s a guess. We are still on the fence.

[JBB]

The GAM guides us to a win on the ILS @ WIU. 5 Dimes had the O/U at 37.5 and ILS +14. We picked over and ILS to cover. They missed a FG in the third qtr. Final score ILS 28-14.

We had to put up $120 for $100 on each, washing and winning, giving us $100 bringing the kitty to $1,270. Still not much breathing room. 5 Dimes is really, really good.

The GAM had the Redbirds -14 and O/U 42. Mythical score was 28-14.

Its 7-7 in Vermilion, no wait its 14-7 Yotes on a beautiful long pass to the House!! USD is a team with a bullet. I for one had real low expectations for them but am glad to see they are in their giving it the old college try!

Bison certainly aren't covering 40. Its 15-0 in the third. MSU is playing a physical game and seem to be holding their own. The Bison once again follow the advice given by experts years ago: go for 2 on your first score. They get it again!

Go Bison! Go for 2!!!

Looking back from week 1 we have placed 14 bets on the GAMs guidance. The record is 10-2-2. $100 has grown to $1,270.

It's now Coyotes 21 UNI 14 with 1:05 left in the first qtr. Humdinger of a game so far.

[JBB]

The GAM has another successful week with the MVFC. there were 5 games, 15 possible bets at 5 dimes, 3 for each game: Winner with spread, Over/Under, Winner. The GAM is used to spot the 5 Dimes bets worth taking.

There were 2 washes leaving 13. The GAM got 11 or 84.6%. Of the 11, 2 were identified as winners and bets were placed at 5 Dimes. One bet was a wash and the other wins $100.

Some bets are close but amount to guesses. Some have ridiculous odds. Some teams are inconsistent but some bets are worth taking. The GAM finds those.

The house always wins if only because football games are played on "Any Given Saturday". Its nice when the GAM tells you what Saturday it is and things play out. So far so good this season.

2 top notch games left for fans and on the GAM Labs slate:

• Montana @ Sac State for Conference, playoff and national ranking recognition. Sac State -3
  UND @ Cal Poly for two good FCS teams equally matched and hopefully ready to play. Cal Poly -1

[JBB]

NDSU BISON 119-8. From BV we get this:

2011 14-1
2012 14-1
2013 15-0
2014 15-1
2015 13-2
2016 12-2
2017 14-1
2018 15-0
2019 6-0 up to the time of your post
118-8
As of today
119-8

[JBB]

**********FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE**********
GAM Labs publishing date Oct 13, 2019

This weeks projected outcomes for the MVFC:
5 dimes added October 16

MSU @ NDSU*
GAM: NDSU -26; O/U 58; Mythical score NDSU 42-16

5 Dimes: NDSU -40; O/U 61
Actual Score NDSU 22-0. MSU brought a very good defense. The Bison came back to earth.

SDSU* @ INDS
GAM: SDSU -12; O/U 44; Mythical score SDSU 28-16

5 Dimes: SDSU -19; O/U 42
Actual Score SDSU 42-23. Sets up a lot of momentum for the Dakota College Football Championship next week.

USD @ UNI*
GAM: UNI -2; O/U 56; Mythical score UNI 29-27
expect a tremendous game with 2 equally matched teams.

5 Dimes: UNI -6.5; O/U 43
Actual Score UNI 42-27. USD hung with them until the 4th qtr

YSU* @ SIU
GAM: YSU -4; O/U 60; Mythical score YSU 32-28

5 Dimes: YSU -4; O/U 55.5
Actual Score SIU 35-10. UPSET. SIU regains early season form.

ISU* @ WIU
GAM: ISU -14; O/U 42; Mythical score ISU 28-14

5 Dimes: ISU -14; O/U 37.5
Actual Score ILS 28-14 GAM picks up $100 on the Over and washes on spread.

The GAM performed very well for us this week. It had a little trouble in the Big Sky with the UND upset. The Big Sky games brought the GAM down to a 68.4% of the 21 factors for the 7 games. 2 were washes leaving 19 active with 13 correct.

Only 2 of the 13 were taken as money wagers at 5 Dimes. There were other good chances out there that were left on the table. We have no regrets about not losing a bet we never made.