MVFC 9/21/19

[JBB]

THIS JUST IN:

Week 9/21

Here is the projected MVFC finish this week. Conference games only

NDSU 8-0 Last week @ 8-0
SDSU 6-2 Last week 7-1
YSU 5-3 Last week 7-1
UNI 5-3 Last week 5-3
SIU 5-3 Last week 4-4
IND 4-4 Last week 3-5
WIU 2-6 Last week 1-7
USD 1-7 Last week 1-7
MSU 0-8 Last week 2-6

[JBB]

[JBB]

THIS JUST IN:

Week 9/21

Here is the projected MVFC finish this week. Conference games only

NDSU 8-0 Last week @ 8-0
SDSU 6-2 Last week 7-1
YSU 5-3 Last week 7-1
UNI 5-3 Last week 5-3
SIU 5-3 Last week 4-4
IND 4-4 Last week 3-5
WIU 2-6 Last week 1-7
USD 1-7 Last week 1-7
MSU 0-8 Last week 2-6

Once conference play starts it’s very possible there are going to be some great, evenly matched, fun to watch games among the bottom 3 or 4 teams. For them there is no post season but the thrill of victory could inspire something exciting like Houston Baptist @ USD.

It was non conference, two also rans and one of the best games I’ve seen in a while. Looking forward to more great games like that among the bottom 4.

[JBB]

Predicted scores are starting to come off the wire:

UCD @ NDSU*
GAM: NDSU -18; O/U 62; Mythical score NDSU 40-22

5 Dimes: NDSU. -25.5; O/U 59

SUU @ SDSU*
GAM: SDSU -26; O/U 58; Mythical Score SDSU 42-16

5 Dimes: SDSU -28.5; O/U 60.5

USD* @ UNC
GAM: USD -4; O/U 40; Mythical Score USD 22-18
Makings of another great game of football between 2 equally matched teams. It will be on the big screen

5 Dimes: USD -5; O/U 65

Idaho State @ UNI*
GAM: UNI -13; O/U 47; Mythical Score UNI 30-17

5 Dimes: UNI -14; I/U 49

SIU* @ Ark State
GAM: SIU -2; O/U 58; Mythical Score SIU 30-28

5 Dimes: SIU +23; O/U 62.5

Northern AZ* @ ILS
GAM: NAZ -7; O/U 51; Mythical Score NAZ 29-22

5 Dimes: ILS -10.5; O/U 54

E Illinois @ Ind State
GAM: IND - 16; O/U 44; Mythical Score IND 30-14

5 Dimes: INDS -17.5; O/U. 47.6

Kennesaw State* @ MSU
GAM: KSU -31; O/U 57; Mythical Score KSU 44-13

5 Dimes: MSU +14; O/U. 54

A few extras:

No WIU call this week.
YSU is resting.

NDSU is projected a 29-29 even match with the Ducks if the game were played this week. Some think strength of schedule and home field adjustments are needed. With them it's Ducks 32-24. Ducks were a 13 point favorite last week but Montana whittled them down and Delaware gave NDSU a chance to run up a few stats.

BIG SKY:
UND is a 2 point favorite at EWU for wk 9/28/19

5Dimes added 9/17/19

[JBB]

********FOOTBALL ALERT************

SIU @ Arkansas State MISS-PRICED

GAM: SIU -2; O/U 58; Mythical score SIU 30-28

5Dimes: SIU +23; O/U 62.5

SIU has outscored AKS 99-73.
SIU allowed 78 points AKS 109

SIU avgs twice the rushing yards/game 230-116

AKS defense allows 488 yds/game. SIU averages 424 yds/game.
SIU defense allows 375 yds/game. AKS offense averages 378.

SIU is the surprise team in the MVFC this year. Looking good early in the season they seem primed and ready to take the fight to Arkansas State.

The GAM thinks SIU is a 2 point favorite. Statistics bear this out and after adjustments for SOS and home field it is SIU -2. Before any adjustments SIU is a clear 10 point favorite. Good enough to hold their own.

Taking SIU and 23 points to win is a great wager in our opinion. It has been called in for $240 to return $440 and win $200.

Odds on some of these games have been very volatile tonight. The USD game was one of them. We have our eye on that one and a few others but there are no glaring miss-priced games like this one right now.

[JBB]

More low hanging fruit:

Kennesaw State @ Missouri State

KSU @ MSU.

• MSU seems helpless.
  The GAM sees KSU as a 31 point favorite.
  5 Dimes sees them as a 14 pt favorite.

We see

• KSU to cover 14
  total score over the 54 and
  KSU outright winner.

The debate has ended and will be reviewed in the morning.
Under consideration: $240 on KSU -14

• win $200
• collect $440
• called in 7AM 9/18/19

9/21/19. KSU in victory formation. They win 35-24. KSU had the 14 point spread covered late in the 4th but MSU marched right back to score. Tough loss for us -$220. KSU had a tough first half but scored 28 in the second half.

[JBB]

3 main bets possible on football games at 5 Dimes.

• winner and points
• over/under
• out-right winner

They are THE measure of accuracy when predicting football. They tell you the spread and over under. you decide if they are right, score goes over or under and who wins out right.

They have the spread and over under down to an art. The GAM shows you where their mistakes are and will give you great guidance as to your choices on the 3 main bets, or factors for any game desired.

The GAM provides

• measure of spread
• over/under target total
• out right winner

5 Dimes is matched against the GAM every week to determine accuracy of prognostications. This week it analyzed 8 games with a possible 24 points, 3 factor points/game.

Last week the GAM had 8 games, 24 possible points and

• scored 16 or 67%. Thats pretty typical
• it pointed out 2 miss-priced games guiding to a $300 profit
• indicated correctly all 8 winners

Using the GAM as my guide I scored 17 of 24 or 70.8%.

This season, the GAM has pointed out 5 miss-priced games. $100 is now $870. Two prospects this week could add another $400. That is the real purpose of the GAM.

[JBB]

SIU @ AKS

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS

Tonight at 5 Dimes SIU pays $1,116 on $100 if they win straight up. They have SIU +23 pt underdog. The GAM has SIU a 2 point favorite and projected winner.

There was a similar situation last week with Houston Baptist @ South Dakota U. HB was a 27 point underdog but the GAM showed them a 2 point favorite and projected winner. They couldn’t cover but had you taken them to win it was similar to taking SIU to win this week. Final score was HB 53-52!

[JBB]

We did not take the in line bet on SIU. The debate raged around Houston Baptist last week too. We are too conservative but do keep track of these "unrealized" gains/losses. If they become overwhelmingly positive a risk budget may be established. Right now its the sure thing.

If we take an abnormal risk its almost always on the BISON. Nobody wins them all. NDSU is giving it a heck of a run though.

ASIDE FROM FOOTBALL:

There was a lot of confusion in the control room this morning. A mouse made its appearance. Clever little rascal is in hiding. That's the trouble when you live out here in the open country: lots of wild varmints.

We need several cats roaming the compound grounds to keep the area clear of the small pests and help the great mouser we have inside. She has a tough job with all the things to run under in the packed control room.

The dogs don't pay any attention to these little things. They have bigger concerns keeping the larger predators away.

Up at the house there isn't too much trouble except we can see a construction crane way off to the east. That's concerning.

[JBB]

Aerosmith Residency coming up in Las Vegas for 10/6 & 10/8 shows. We will be at the Cosmopolitan just an easy walk to the MGM Park. Saw the show on July 9. You can judge for yourself here:

phpBB [video]

Even the cheap seats are up a couple hundred from July. You can still get some great seats on the second level center stage for under $400.

https://www1.ticketmaster.com/aerosmith ... 49B8F695ED

The Fabulous Fargo Dome has hosted Aerosmith.

A few years back we saw Aerosmith on Tuesday & the Rolling Stones on Thursday at the Target Center, Mnpls and on to Fargo for the Rolling Stones in the FFD Saturday night. that was our Rock Around the Clock Tour.

A lot nicer to travel to Las Vegas for a great seat and good sound than travel around to different cities and the hassles and expense of the Big Show.

I forgot to mention the reason for the post. I understand the Mountain West is finished in Las Vegas. It’s moving to Los Angles with the PAC 12. Big disappointment. Someday NDSU might get some kind of FBS offer. The MWC is often mentioned as a possibility.

A bowl game in Las Vegas is a draw for me. Excellent hotels, good food and easy to get there. Los Angles? Not a chance.

[JBB]

An insightful post from BV on today’s game

gizmo gizmo is offline
Senior Member
Has at least one Bison tattoo

Join Date
Sep 2008
Posts
677
Default Re: GDT: NDSU vs. UC Davis

This will be a challenge for the Bison. UCD is an experienced and talented outfit that will test the NDSU defense much more than anybody they have played this season. While some people claim this game will tell if Davis is "for real", I believe the same goes for NDSU. The Bison should prevail in the end because of superior defense. Bison 45. Aggies 24

POST GAME: Gizmo called that about right

[JBB]

Predicted scores are starting to come off the wire:

UCD @ NDSU* GAM: NDSU -18; O/U 62; Mythical score NDSU 40-22

ACTUAL: NDSU 27-16
5 Dimes: NDSU. -25.5; O/U 59

SUU @ SDSU*
GAM: SDSU -26; O/U 58; Mythical Score SDSU 42-16

ACTUAL: SDSU 43-7
5 Dimes: SDSU -28.5; O/U 60.5

USD* @ UNC
GAM: USD -4; O/U 40; Mythical Score USD 22-18
Makings of another great game of football between 2 equally matched teams. It will be on the big screen

ACTUAL: USD 14-6 As predicted fun game for the fans
5 Dimes: USD -5; O/U 65

Idaho State @ UNI*
GAM: UNI -13; O/U 47; Mythical Score UNI 30-17

ACTUAL: UNI 13-6
5 Dimes: UNI -14; I/U 49

SIU* @ Ark State
GAM: SIU -2; O/U 58; Mythical Score SIU 30-28

ACTUAL: AKS 41-28 Difference? SIU missed a few stellar Red Zone opportunities. This was a winner AKS could not cover.
5 Dimes: SIU +23; O/U 62.5

Northern AZ* @ ILS
GAM: NAZ -7; O/U 51; Mythical Score NAZ 29-22

ACTUAL: ILS 40-27
5 Dimes: ILS -10.5; O/U 54

E Illinois @ Ind State
GAM: IND - 16; O/U 44; Mythical Score IND 30-14

ACTUAL: IndSt 16-6
5 Dimes: INDS -17.5; O/U. 47.6

Kennesaw State* @ MSU
GAM: KSU -31; O/U 57; Mythical Score KSU 44-13

ACTUAL: KSU 35-24 KSU criticized by Fargo post game media for not covering. It looked like they should, we bet on it, but the physical game shaved a few points from KSU
5 Dimes: MSU +14; O/U. 54

[JBB]

Good week, not great and we got a nice trim from 5 Dimes. High and tight.

We analyzed 8 games. Of the 3 factors: Winner with points, O/U, Winner the GAM had 16 of 24. 66.7%.

The big killer was Northern Az. GAM indicated NAZ outright winner. 5 Dimes 10.5 underdog. We took NAZ + points but the Any Given Saturday syndrome set in and ILS did as 5 dimes figured they would while covering the spread. We scored 0. Without the game we scored 76%.

The GAM provides you with the 3 factors:

• Team listed as GAM winner is the indicated winner.
  GAM points are indicated, compared to 5 Dimes and the appropriate pick made. (Higher GAM points indicate 5 Dimes spread will be covered, lower it won't.)
  GAM O/U compared to 5 Dimes. If lower the game goes under etc.

GAM points out miss-priced bets on 5 Dimes. It guided on 2 bets: SIU plus pts at AKS which we won and KSU to win and cover which we lost. Juice took $40. Week started with $870, now $830, began season with $100.

Even with the GAM as your guide there is the Any Given Saturday Syndrome which bit us this week. Also, 5 Dimes are absolute experts at making and maintaining competitive lines. They get the juice too. It hurts.

Over-ruling the GAM is sometimes profitable. Staying with the teams you are familiar can improve your chances. There are subtleties even the GAM can't identify. Nice part: There is no guess work. Only a few decisions need be made, if at all, based on accurate and highly correlated relationships found in each teams statistical profile.

There are of course other powerful indicators being held back. These are for our premium subscribers, me!

One take-away from this week: several teams are ready to challenge the foregone supremacy of the Mighty Dakota Land Grants, NDSU and SDSU.

• SIU is most improved.
  ILS is shifting into high gear.

[JBB]

There aren’t any stats in yet but all-and-all a fun Saturday of football. The MVFC is going to be competitive. It’s very possible, at least in from my view, NDSU is not getting out of this unscathed.

They have the week off but the Illinois State game is next up for The Herd. That could be a real barn burner.