How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

[89Hen]

Perhaps the first politician I've seen stick shit on Teflon Trump.

Trip, Teflon is a registered trademark to Bill and Hillary Clinton. I'd be careful throwing that one around, you don't want to make enemies of the Clintons.

[BDKJMU]

How many times have seen a POTUS fail to follow through on his top campaign promise(s)? “Read my lips” is the 1st to come to mind. IMHOP a POTUS should attempt to follow through on his top campaign promise(s), come hell or high water. That’s what Trump is doing.

If Trump caves now, zero chance he gets any any additional physical barrier along the southern border, & zero chance he gets reelected, leaving office failing to accomplish his #1 campaign promise, whether he decides to run again or not.
Besides, the Border Patrol leadership, past and present, along with overwhelmingly the rank & file line agents, want more physical barrier (course they would like to be be getting paid now).

So Trump has no reason to cave. As far as the donks, they don’t have any reason to cave, as they could care less about border security, they’re up in the polls, and they know if Trump caves zero chance he gets reelected.
So what we have here is a Mexican standoff that could go on a long time..

[BDKJMU]

"‘Give Trump the money,’ Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson says as shutdown drags on"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... c5ad376e0b

“I’d give him the whole thing . . . and put strings on it so you make sure he puts the wall where it needs to be. Why are we fighting over this? We’re going to build that wall anyway, at some time.”
I don't agree with him there. If Trump caves, it doesn't get built..

[∞∞∞]

If Trump caves now, zero chance he gets any any additional physical barrier along the southern border, & zero chance he gets reelected, leaving office failing to accomplish his #1 campaign promise, whether he decides to run again or not...so Trump has no reason to cave.

There's a very good reason, yet he and his ilk (yourself included) will never see it.

[93henfan]

Trump's proposal from Saturday just failed in the Republican-majority Senate.

[JohnStOnge]

A lot of activity on this topic today so I'm not going to carefully check if anybody already mentioned this but there is something in a Fox News poll released yesterday that might provide incentive for Republicans to hold out longer than they otherwise might. The poll is at https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... nt-1-23-19.

See questions 37 and 38.

37. [IF FAVOR WALL, ±4.5%]
Do you favor or oppose President Trump shutting down the government until Democrats in Congress give in on the wall?

69% of respondents who favored building a wall answered "favor" to that question while only 24% answered "oppose."

38. [IF OPPOSE WALL, ±4%]
Do you favor or oppose Democrats in Congress shutting down the government until President Trump gives in on the wall?

37% of respondents who oppose a wall answered "favor" to that question while 45% answered "oppose."

That is the first time I've seen things broken that way and what it says to me is that those who oppose the wall are far more likely to be willing to just go ahead and let the other side have its way in order to get the government open.

Otherwise the poll is pretty consistent with others. Respondents opposed building a wall by 51% to 43%. 51% thought Trump is most responsible for the partial shudown while 34% thought the Democrats are. 69% thought the partial shutdown is either an emergency or a major problem. Trump was more underwater in the Job Approval/Disapproval area in this Fox poll taken January 20 - 22 (minus 11) than he was in the most recent previous Fox poll taken December 9 - 11 (minus 6).

So I think, like other polls, it shows Trump losing in terms of majority opinion and declining in Job Approval but those answers to questions 37 and 38 do show a bit more "determination" on the part of the minority of the people who DO support building a wall.

[∞∞∞]

Trump's proposal from Saturday just failed in the Republican-majority Senate.

Trump and his supporters have to come to terms that the wall will never happen. Maybe then we can show a bit of sympathy and console them:

[93henfan]

Surprised that R's Cotton (AR) and Lee (UT) voted against.

[GannonFan]

A lot of activity on this topic today so I'm not going to carefully check if anybody already mentioned this but there is something in a Fox News poll released yesterday that might provide incentive for Republicans to hold out longer than they otherwise might.

So I think, like other polls, it shows Trump losing in terms of majority opinion and declining in Job Approval but those answers to questions 37 and 38 do show a bit more "determination" on the part of the minority of the people who DO support building a wall.

I can actually agree with JSO on this one - I think Trump could possibly carry-on this shutdown forever. I'm not sure he'd ever walk away and declare defeat - it's just not what he can possibly handle (mentally, psychologically). I already don't think he's going to run in 2020, and the odds are the GOP Senate caves before he does and overrides his veto so he can walk away and declare victory. And that's assuming that the Dems don't "cave" before then and agree to some big bargain that includes a lot of concessions they probably should "cave" for (permanent DACA, some money for a wall but not the amount Trump is looking for, and other immigration reform).

I know Pelosi doesn't want to be "hostage dealing", but this is a perfect time to win huge concessions on a whole other host of things, both immigration and even non-immigration, and if you were so worried about setting a precedent with this just also include mechanisms to make sure that government can't be shut down like this again. It may not be the full and complete "victory" over Trump that she's looking for, but in the end it could be a huge win for the country while still being a "win" for the Dems.

[GannonFan]

Trump's proposal from Saturday just failed in the Republican-majority Senate.

Trump and his supporters have to come to terms that the wall will never happen. Maybe then we can show a bit of sympathy and console them:

Not a Trumpkin here, but do you mean no wall other than the various walls that we already have as well as the wall that is going to start being built in the next couple of months from the smaller amount of money (somewhere about $1B) that Congress already approved? Where is the morality red line when it comes to the wall?

[93henfan]

A lot of activity on this topic today so I'm not going to carefully check if anybody already mentioned this but there is something in a Fox News poll released yesterday that might provide incentive for Republicans to hold out longer than they otherwise might.

So I think, like other polls, it shows Trump losing in terms of majority opinion and declining in Job Approval but those answers to questions 37 and 38 do show a bit more "determination" on the part of the minority of the people who DO support building a wall.

I can actually agree with JSO on this one - I think Trump could possibly carry-on this shutdown forever. I'm not sure he'd ever walk away and declare defeat - it's just not what he can possibly handle (mentally, psychologically). I already don't think he's going to run in 2020, and the odds are the GOP Senate caves before he does and overrides his veto so he can walk away and declare victory. And that's assuming that the Dems don't "cave" before then and agree to some big bargain that includes a lot of concessions they probably should "cave" for (permanent DACA, some money for a wall but not the amount Trump is looking for, and other immigration reform).

I know Pelosi doesn't want to be "hostage dealing", but this is a perfect time to win huge concessions on a whole other host of things, both immigration and even non-immigration, and if you were so worried about setting a precedent with this just also include mechanisms to make sure that government can't be shut down like this again. It may not be the full and complete "victory" over Trump that she's looking for, but in the end it could be a huge win for the country while still being a "win" for the Dems.

Trump can't go on indefinitely. DoD runs out of money on Sep 30. He's NOT going to make all of the military go to soup kitchens. His base is all about flag-waving and patriotism even though most of them couldn't hack it in the military themselves. There's a reason they all drive giant pick-ups and SUVs. Makes up for the tiny dicks.

[BDKJMU]

I can actually agree with JSO on this one - I think Trump could possibly carry-on this shutdown forever. I'm not sure he'd ever walk away and declare defeat - it's just not what he can possibly handle (mentally, psychologically). I already don't think he's going to run in 2020, and the odds are the GOP Senate caves before he does and overrides his veto so he can walk away and declare victory. And that's assuming that the Dems don't "cave" before then and agree to some big bargain that includes a lot of concessions they probably should "cave" for (permanent DACA, some money for a wall but not the amount Trump is looking for, and other immigration reform).

I know Pelosi doesn't want to be "hostage dealing", but this is a perfect time to win huge concessions on a whole other host of things, both immigration and even non-immigration, and if you were so worried about setting a precedent with this just also include mechanisms to make sure that government can't be shut down like this again. It may not be the full and complete "victory" over Trump that she's looking for, but in the end it could be a huge win for the country while still being a "win" for the Dems.

Trump can't go on indefinitely. DoD runs out of money on Sep 30. He's NOT going to make all of the military go to soup kitchens. His base is all about flag-waving and patriotism even though most of them couldn't hack it in the military themselves. There's a reason they all drive giant pick-ups and SUVs. Makes up for the tiny dicks.

Neither can Pelosi/Shumer. Food stamps run out end Feb. They can't not going to let that many donks go hungry for 7 months until Sept 30...

[GannonFan]

I can actually agree with JSO on this one - I think Trump could possibly carry-on this shutdown forever. I'm not sure he'd ever walk away and declare defeat - it's just not what he can possibly handle (mentally, psychologically). I already don't think he's going to run in 2020, and the odds are the GOP Senate caves before he does and overrides his veto so he can walk away and declare victory. And that's assuming that the Dems don't "cave" before then and agree to some big bargain that includes a lot of concessions they probably should "cave" for (permanent DACA, some money for a wall but not the amount Trump is looking for, and other immigration reform).

I know Pelosi doesn't want to be "hostage dealing", but this is a perfect time to win huge concessions on a whole other host of things, both immigration and even non-immigration, and if you were so worried about setting a precedent with this just also include mechanisms to make sure that government can't be shut down like this again. It may not be the full and complete "victory" over Trump that she's looking for, but in the end it could be a huge win for the country while still being a "win" for the Dems.

Trump can't go on indefinitely. DoD runs out of money on Sep 30. He's NOT going to make all of the military go to soup kitchens. His base is all about flag-waving and patriotism even though most of them couldn't hack it in the military themselves. There's a reason they all drive giant pick-ups and SUVs. Makes up for the tiny dicks.

Well, somebody else is going to cave long before Sept 30, so relatively speaking, it is indefinite for Trump. His pettiness knows no bounds.

[mainejeff]

I can actually agree with JSO on this one - I think Trump could possibly carry-on this shutdown forever. I'm not sure he'd ever walk away and declare defeat - it's just not what he can possibly handle (mentally, psychologically). I already don't think he's going to run in 2020, and the odds are the GOP Senate caves before he does and overrides his veto so he can walk away and declare victory. And that's assuming that the Dems don't "cave" before then and agree to some big bargain that includes a lot of concessions they probably should "cave" for (permanent DACA, some money for a wall but not the amount Trump is looking for, and other immigration reform).

I know Pelosi doesn't want to be "hostage dealing", but this is a perfect time to win huge concessions on a whole other host of things, both immigration and even non-immigration, and if you were so worried about setting a precedent with this just also include mechanisms to make sure that government can't be shut down like this again. It may not be the full and complete "victory" over Trump that she's looking for, but in the end it could be a huge win for the country while still being a "win" for the Dems.

Trump can't go on indefinitely. DoD runs out of money on Sep 30. He's NOT going to make all of the military go to soup kitchens. His base is all about flag-waving and patriotism even though most of them couldn't hack it in the military themselves. There's a reason they all drive giant pick-ups and SUVs. Makes up for the tiny dicks.

He said it first!

[93henfan]

Neither can Pelosi/Shumer. Food stamps run out end Feb. They can't not going to let that many donks go hungry for 7 months until Sept 30...

Bro, there are way more white people on food stamps and other forms of welfare. You might want to check your impacts on when food stamps run out.

Medicaid had more than 70 million beneficiaries in 2016, of whom 43 percent were white, 18 percent black, and 30 percent Hispanic. Of 43 million food stamp recipients that year, 36.2 percent were white, 25.6 percent black, 17.2 percent Hispanic and 15.5 percent unknown.

[93henfan]

Schumer's plan also fails in the Senate, so today saw no change in the Trump Shutdown.

[Ibanez]

Neither can Pelosi/Shumer. Food stamps run out end Feb. They can't not going to let that many donks go hungry for 7 months until Sept 30...

Bro, there are way more white people on food stamps and other forms of welfare. You might want to check your impacts on when food stamps run out.

Medicaid had more than 70 million beneficiaries in 2016, of whom 43 percent were white, 18 percent black, and 30 percent Hispanic. Of 43 million food stamp recipients that year, 36.2 percent were white, 25.6 percent black, 17.2 percent Hispanic and 15.5 percent unknown.

Yeah - my father is still living somewhat comfortably at home b/c of all the stuff he gets from Medicare...like Oxygen. Thankfully, Medicare has made his and moms life so much easier.

But yeah, fuck those people.

[93henfan]

The following R's voted for the Schumer plan so far:

Collins (ME)
Gardner (CO)
Alexander (TN)
Isakson (GA)
Murkowski (AK)

[Ibanez]

Schumer's plan also fails in the Senate, so today saw no change in the Trump Shutdown.

What were you expecting? Compromise? Statesmen-ship? Pssh!


Several Rs voted "Aye", including Romney. I guess they are about to be roasted by Trumps puppetmasters - Hannity, Coulter and Limbaugh.

[93henfan]

Schumer's plan also fails in the Senate, so today saw no change in the Trump Shutdown.

What were you expecting? Compromise? Statesmen-ship? Pssh!


Several Rs voted "Aye", including Romney. I guess they are about to be roasted by Trumps puppetmasters - Hannity, Coulter and Limbaugh.

The surprising thing is that Schumer's plan polled better than Trump's plan in a body with a Republican majority.

That should be alarming for Trump. Well, if somebody takes the time to explain it to him slowly and with small words.

[BDKJMU]

Neither can Pelosi/Shumer. Food stamps run out end Feb. They can't not going to let that many donks go hungry for 7 months until Sept 30...

Bro, there are way more white people on food stamps and other forms of welfare. You might want to check your impacts on when food stamps run out.

Medicaid had more than 70 million beneficiaries in 2016, of whom 43 percent were white, 18 percent black, and 30 percent Hispanic. Of 43 million food stamp recipients that year, 36.2 percent were white, 25.6 percent black, 17.2 percent Hispanic and 15.5 percent unknown.

I didn't say anything about race. But since you brought it up, you're telling me (non hispanic) whites (62% of the population) are way under represented among medicaid (43%) and food stamp recipients (36%). No kidding.

Food stamp funding extended amid shutdown, but only through February
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government ... 018-01-09/

Like I said, when food stamp run put, that going to hit a large chunk of the donk base.

[93henfan]

Bro, there are way more white people on food stamps and other forms of welfare. You might want to check your impacts on when food stamps run out.

I didn't say anything about race. But since you brought it up, you're telling me (non hispanic) whites (62% of the population) are way under represented among medicaid (43%) and food stamp recipients (36%). No kidding.

Food stamp funding extended amid shutdown, but only through February
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government ... 018-01-09/

Like I said, when food stamp run put, that going to hit a large chunk of the donk base.

I'm not talking percentages. I'm talking straight numbers. That's have voting works. We got rid of the 3/5's rule for niggras a long time back!

[∞∞∞]

What were you expecting? Compromise? Statesmen-ship? Pssh!


Several Rs voted "Aye", including Romney. I guess they are about to be roasted by Trumps puppetmasters - Hannity, Coulter and Limbaugh.

The surprising thing is that Schumer's plan polled better than Trump's plan in a body with a Republican majority.

That should be alarming for Trump. Well, if somebody takes the time to explain it to him slowly and with small words.

Heard an interesting argument that while the Constitution allows each chamber to create its own rules, it doesn't say anything about how. Senators likely have a Constitutional right to just push McConnell aside and bypass his obstruction, as along as they're fine with not punishing...themselves.

[93henfan]

Trump starting to cave. He just released a statement that he'll take less than $5.7B. He said he now wants a "large downpayment" on a border fence.

[GannonFan]

The surprising thing is that Schumer's plan polled better than Trump's plan in a body with a Republican majority.

That should be alarming for Trump. Well, if somebody takes the time to explain it to him slowly and with small words.

Heard an interesting argument that while the Constitution allows each chamber to create its own rules, it doesn't say anything about how. Senators likely have a Constitutional right to just push McConnell aside and bypass his obstruction, as along as they're fine with not punishing...themselves.

Is McConnell the only person holding this up? Senators voted him the Majority leader, no? Yes, Senate rules can change whenever the Senate votes to change their rules.