Blue Wave 2018

[89Hen]

I think I just heard a few heads explode in my office.

[AZGrizFan]

I think I just heard a few heads explode in my office.

[Winterborn]

I think I just heard a few heads explode in my office.

[houndawg]

And that's with the blue states carrying the parasitic red states share of federal taxes.

Maybe the blue states shouldn't have destroyed those red states, forcing them to live in squalor and struggle for the next 80-90 years.

Spoiler: show

mess with the bull, you might get the horn...

[houndawg]

The President has already failed. Bigly.


tick tock...

Don’t make me post his huuuuuuuuge list of accomplishments again.

"Today's word is "dictate" boys and girls. Johnny can you use "dictate" in a sentence?"

"Yes Mrs. Jones: "Yo Donald! How does Putin's dictate?""

[kalm]

This former liberal thinks the Democrats are in trouble. He raises some great points, especially regarding how the Democratic Party could learn from his campaign. But if you watch even a minute of the video at the top of the article or read the last paragraph I quoted, it's clear he's a bit confused and why people think he's an alt-right plant.

It was this disconnect that led Straka to create the #WalkAway campaign in mid-June of 2018, a social media movement that encourages lifelong liberals and Democrats to “walk away” from their party and explore conservative politics with an open mind.

For Straka, the left practices tolerance and diversity in a superficial way, with no regard to individual thought or personal belief: “If you express an opinion that’s outside of what is their ideology, there is no tolerance and there is no diversity.”..........................

When he reached out to liberal friends and family, asking if they were aware of how the mainstream media was manipulating the public’s perception of Trump, he found himself shut out. “People were starting to disengage with me, they were starting to cut me off in real life, they were starting to cut me off on social media. There were all these different things that people were saying about me in order to be able to justify that I had sort of walked away from the camp and walked away from the groupthink.”

Soon after, he posted a video on Facebook and Twitter, where it quickly went viral. In it he says, “Once upon a time, I was a liberal. But liberalism has changed, and I will no longer be a part of an ideology or political party that represents everything that contradicts my values of unity, equal opportunity, personal empowerment, compassion and love.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/unfiltered-l ... _test=2_01

[JohnStOnge]

This former liberal thinks the Democrats are in trouble.

As you know I think that in the long terms things look very good for the Democrats. But I do think they may have a problem in the short term. A lot of people are saying that the Ohio 12th race being very close and still undecided (though odds are it'll be the Republican) is an ominous sign for Republicans in the mid terms.

But there are indications in polling that, for some reason, there has been a recent decline in the Democrat public sentiment edge. The RealClearPolitics generic Congressional Ballot page now has four polls up such that the surveys ended in August and the results are Democrats by 4, tie, Democrats by 3, and Democrats by 2. If that's real margins like that are not going to be nearly enough to overcome the overall net edge Republicans have due to gerrymandering.

Long term the Democrats will prevail unless some basic underlying tendencies with respect to how different groups vote changes. And those tendencies have been in place for over 40 years now. But the country really needs for the Democrats to gain control of at least one house of Congress right now. And that looks like a very uncertain proposition at this time.

[JohnStOnge]

Now the recent Fox News Poll has some interesting results; particularly when considering the fact that the Fox News Poll has historically been biased towards over-estimating support for the Republican side.

It's at http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/08 ... l-822.html

The most interesting set of results to me are those on Major Party Favorable/Unfavorable perceptions. Here's how it goes:

39% had a "Favorable" view of the Republican Party while 56% had an "Unfavorable" view.
50% had a "Favorable" view of the Democrat Party while 46% had an "Unfavorable" view.

So, by the latest Fox News Poll, the point estimates are at -17% while the Democrat Party is at +4%. That's encouraging for someone like me who thinks that we are at a point in history where we really need for the Democrats to take at least one House of Congress so that Congress will do it's job and investigate this total slime ball we have as President right now.

[CAA Flagship]

Dems On The Ground

Just had a guy ring my doorbell. When I opened it, I thought it was going to be a sales pitch for lawn service or something like that. Conversation went something like this:

I'm here to talk to you about Claire McCaskill.

Umm. I think you have the wrong audience.

Oh, so you are a Republican.

No need to apply a label. I'm pro business and pro economy.

Well let me tell you about the great things she voted for. I have this hearing aid that I was able to get because of her.

So you like free shit? When does it end?

Well it helps a lot of people.

Tax cuts help far more people, but she voted against that, didn't she?

Well thank you for your time.

Tell her I said thanks for her service.

[SDHornet]

So apparently Cortez endorsed Cuomo (establishment corporatist donk) for governor of NY encouraged the leftists to vote for him. (Probably because the leftists candidates all lost in the NY primary).

And the leftist FL gubernatorial candidate Gillum was busy getting cozy with Booker...and subsequently has reneged on his "medicare for all" platform.

So basically the leftist front runners are now getting in line (and bed) with the establishment donks. So much for that progressive take over of the DNC. Trip, Cleets, klammy, jellybelly, (and any other leftists on this board) thoughts?

Personally I was hoping the progressives could force a schism and then moderates like myself might actually have a reason to vote D again with the sane branch of the schism. So much for that.

phpBB [video]

[mainejeff]

So apparently Cortez endorsed Cuomo (establishment corporatist donk) for governor of NY encouraged the leftists to vote for him. (Probably because the leftists candidates all lost in the NY primary).

And the leftist FL gubernatorial candidate Gillum was busy getting cozy with Booker...and subsequently has reneged on his "medicare for all" platform.

So basically the leftist front runners are now getting in line (and bed) with the establishment donks. So much for that progressive take over of the DNC. Trip, Cleets, klammy, jellybelly, (and any other leftists on this board) thoughts?

Personally I was hoping the progressives could force a schism and then moderates like myself might actually have a reason to vote D again with the sane branch of the schism. So much for that.

phpBB [video]

Come on...you were never voting Democrat no matter what they say or do.

Just like I am never voting Republican again.

[JohnStOnge]

I think that, unfortunately, high confidence in a blue wave is not materializing. By the 538 forecast it's about 80% right now. We need 95% confidence to make a call. Maybe 90% if we want to be borderline.

Right now I think it's very likely more people will vote for Democrats in both the House and Senate elections. But I think there is still substantial risk that, after this election, we are going to have a situation in which more people voted for the Democrat in the last Presidential election, most people voted for Democrats in the last House election, and more people voted for Democrats in the last Senate election yet Republicans control the Presidency, the House, and the Senate.

The fact that ANYBODY would vote for a Republican right now is a stain upon the reputation of the United States. The corruption being facilitated by the Republican Party right now is palpable.

[AZGrizFan]

I think that, unfortunately, high confidence in a blue wave is not materializing. By the 538 forecast it's about 80% right now. We need 95% confidence to make a call. Maybe 90% if we want to be borderline.

Right now I think it's very likely more people will vote for Democrats in both the House and Senate elections. But I think there is still substantial risk that, after this election, we are going to have a situation in which more people voted for the Democrat in the last Presidential election, most people voted for Democrats in the last House election, and more people voted for Democrats in the last Senate election yet Republicans control the Presidency, the House, and the Senate.

The fact that ANYBODY would vote for a Republican right now is a stain upon the reputation of the United States. The corruption being facilitated by the Republican Party right now is palpable.

Your histrionics have become tiresome.

[CAA Flagship]

I think that, unfortunately, high confidence in a blue wave is not materializing. By the 538 forecast it's about 80% right now. We need 95% confidence to make a call. Maybe 90% if we want to be borderline.

Right now I think it's very likely more people will vote for Democrats in both the House and Senate elections. But I think there is still substantial risk that, after this election, we are going to have a situation in which more people voted for the Democrat in the last Presidential election, most people voted for Democrats in the last House election, and more people voted for Democrats in the last Senate election yet Republicans control the Presidency, the House, and the Senate.

The fact that ANYBODY would vote for a Republican right now is a stain upon the reputation of the United States. The corruption being facilitated by the Republican Party right now is palpable.

[AZGrizFan]

I think that, unfortunately, high confidence in a blue wave is not materializing. By the 538 forecast it's about 80% right now. We need 95% confidence to make a call. Maybe 90% if we want to be borderline.

Right now I think it's very likely more people will vote for Democrats in both the House and Senate elections. But I think there is still substantial risk that, after this election, we are going to have a situation in which more people voted for the Democrat in the last Presidential election, most people voted for Democrats in the last House election, and more people voted for Democrats in the last Senate election yet Republicans control the Presidency, the House, and the Senate.

The fact that ANYBODY would vote for a Republican right now is a stain upon the reputation of the United States. The corruption being facilitated by the Republican Party right now is palpable.

[JohnStOnge]

Again: Anybody who votes Republican right now has serious judgment issues. It's a totally off the rails, corrupt political party at this point.

[AZGrizFan]

Again: Anybody who votes Republican right now has serious judgment issues. It's a totally off the rails, corrupt political party at this point.

And the democrat party is made up of psychotic, mentally unstable, anarchistic automatons.

No thanks.

[Ivytalk]

Quinnipiac poll has Ted C r u z up 9 over Pedo O’Rourke. Back atcha, my coon-ass friend.

[houndawg]

Quinnipiac poll has Ted C r u z up 9 over Pedo O’Rourke. Back atcha, my coon-ass friend.

Others have Rafael Eduardo in a dead heat. And Beto has Willie for the home stretch.

[Ivytalk]

Quinnipiac poll has Ted C r u z up 9 over Pedo O’Rourke. Back atcha, my coon-ass friend.

Others have Rafael Eduardo in a dead heat. And Beto has Willie for the home stretch.

Willie. Yeah, he’ll really get the Millennials to the polls.

[JohnStOnge]

Quinnipiac poll has Ted C r u z up 9 over Pedo O’Rourke. Back atcha, my coon-ass friend.

Yes there was another poll that came out later that had a point estimate with the Democrat being up by 2. But I would be shocked if C r u z doesn't win.

At the same time, it's just a matter of time before the Democrats control Texas.

[JohnStOnge]

Again: Anybody who votes Republican right now has serious judgment issues. It's a totally off the rails, corrupt political party at this point.

And the democrat party is made up of psychotic, mentally unstable, anarchistic automatons.

As well as the overwhelming majority of the cognitive elite.

[Ivytalk]

And the democrat party is made up of psychotic, mentally unstable, anarchistic automatons.

As well as the overwhelming majority of the cognitive elite.

You’re killing me here!

[SDHornet]

Come on...you were never voting Democrat no matter what they say or do.

Just like I am never voting Republican again.

Voted down ticket donk in '08. Never doing that again. Also have only voted 3rd party for president since then too, but definitely voting Trump in '20.

[AZGrizFan]

And the democrat party is made up of psychotic, mentally unstable, anarchistic automatons.

As well as the overwhelming majority of the cognitive elite.

Yes, and they’ve all collectively slipped a “cog” in the last 2 years. Fucking deranged. The lot of ‘em.