A study that agrees with me

[JohnStOnge]

I mean about the Trump win not being an "It's the economy stupid" thing:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ty/525771/

In the wake of Trump’s surprise win, some journalists, scholars, and political strategists argued that economic anxiety drove these Americans to Trump. But new analysis of post-election survey data conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic found something different: Evidence suggests financially troubled voters in the white working class were more likely to prefer Clinton over Trump. Besides partisan affiliation, it was cultural anxiety—feeling like a stranger in America, supporting the deportation of immigrants, and hesitating about educational investment—that best predicted support for Trump.

Of course, as you know, to me the exit polling results made it immediately obvious that it wasn't the economy because, consistent with the statement above about financially troubled voters being more likely to vote for Clinton, the exit polls showed that people who considered the economy the most important issue voted for Clinton by a solid margin.

[Chizzang]

Is it May of 2017..?
I feel like maybe I've lived this day already - I'm experiencing some kind f deja vu

[kalm]

I mean about the Trump win not being an "It's the economy stupid" thing:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ty/525771/

In the wake of Trump’s surprise win, some journalists, scholars, and political strategists argued that economic anxiety drove these Americans to Trump. But new analysis of post-election survey data conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic found something different: Evidence suggests financially troubled voters in the white working class were more likely to prefer Clinton over Trump. Besides partisan affiliation, it was cultural anxiety—feeling like a stranger in America, supporting the deportation of immigrants, and hesitating about educational investment—that best predicted support for Trump.

Of course, as you know, to me the exit polling results made it immediately obvious that it wasn't the economy because, consistent with the statement above about financially troubled voters being more likely to vote for Clinton, the exit polls showed that people who considered the economy the most important issue voted for Clinton by a solid margin.

Sounds extremely inconclusive. This paragraph doesn't exactly jive with your narrative...

Finally, 54 percent of white working-class Americans said investing in college education is a risky gamble, including 61 percent of white working-class men. White working-class voters who held this belief were almost twice as likely as their peers to support Trump. “The enduring narrative of the American dream is that if you study and get a college education and work hard, you can get ahead,” said Robert P. Jones, the CEO of PRRI. “The survey shows that many white working-class Americans, especially men, no longer see that path available to them. … It is this sense of economic fatalism, more than just economic hardship, that was the decisive factor in support for Trump among white working-class voters.”

So it wasn't the economy, stupid, but it was economic fatalism?

[CID1990]

So how does this square with the emerging consensus that it was previous Obama voters flipping to Trump?

If anything, those voters are a mix of economic voters and anti-status quo voters

[Pwns]

What percent of the white working class went to Trump as opposed to Romney and McCain?

Why did Michigan and Pennsylvania go red for the first time since 1988? And Wisconsin red for the first time since 1984?

[CAA Flagship]

What percent of the white working class went to Trump as opposed to Romney and McCain?

Why did Michigan and Pennsylvania go red for the first time since 1988? And Wisconsin red for the first time since 1984?

_CONO_Y

I'd like to solve the puzzle, Pat.....

[ASUG8]

It's over John. Let it go.

[kalm]

It's over John. Let it go.

He'll never get over Macho Grande...

[AZGrizFan]

I mean about the Trump win not being an "It's the economy stupid" thing:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ty/525771/

In the wake of Trump’s surprise win, some journalists, scholars, and political strategists argued that economic anxiety drove these Americans to Trump. But new analysis of post-election survey data conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic found something different: Evidence suggests financially troubled voters in the white working class were more likely to prefer Clinton over Trump. Besides partisan affiliation, it was cultural anxiety—feeling like a stranger in America, supporting the deportation of immigrants, and hesitating about educational investment—that best predicted support for Trump.

Of course, as you know, to me the exit polling results made it immediately obvious that it wasn't the economy because, consistent with the statement above about financially troubled voters being more likely to vote for Clinton, the exit polls showed that people who considered the economy the most important issue voted for Clinton by a solid margin.

Jon, I can find a study that says the earth is flat. Doesn't prove shit.

[GannonFan]

It's over John. Let it go.

He'll never get over Macho Grande...

Awesome reference.

[CAA Flagship]

I mean about the Trump win not being an "It's the economy stupid" thing:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ty/525771/



Of course, as you know, to me the exit polling results made it immediately obvious that it wasn't the economy because, consistent with the statement above about financially troubled voters being more likely to vote for Clinton, the exit polls showed that people who considered the economy the most important issue voted for Clinton by a solid margin.

Jon, I can find a study that says the earth is flat. Doesn't prove shit.

Yes it does. It proves the study is wrong.

[Grizalltheway]

[JohnStOnge]

What percent of the white working class went to Trump as opposed to Romney and McCain?

Why did Michigan and Pennsylvania go red for the first time since 1988? And Wisconsin red for the first time since 1984?

As noted shortly after election, Hillary won among voters who considered the economy to be the most important issue in both of those States. She won by an estimated 51% to 43% among such voters in Michigan and by an estimated 53% to 42% in Wisconsin.

If you're looking for issues that favored Trump look to immigration and terrorism. Trump won among voters who thought immigration was the most important issue by an estimated 71% to 21% in Michigan and by an estimated 75% to 23% in Wisconsin. He won among voters who thought terrorism was the most important issue 55% to 42% in Michigan and an estimated 60% to 38% in Wisconsin.

When you see numbers like that and continue to insist that he won because of the economy just because that's a narrative you heard and/or that's what you believed before you saw the numbers you're just in denial. You're in "don't let the facts get in the way" mode.

It's as I said: I posted the study because it agrees with what I wrote shortly after the exit polling data became available. But you really don't need that study to see that the idea the Trump won because of the economy is a fallacy. That became obvious as soon as the calibrated exit polling results came out.

[JohnStOnge]

BTW, I unfortunately do not have ready access to State by State exit polling from the 2012 election but to put the role of the economy into perspective the 2016 Republican/Democratic result among those who thought the economy was the most important issue was pretty much reversed from what it was then.

In 2012 an estimated 59% of voters thought the economy was the most important issue and those voters voted for the Republican, Romney, by an estimated 51% to 47%. In 2016 an estimated 52% of voters thought the economy was the most important issue and those voters voted for the Democrat, Clinton, by an estimated 52% to 41%.

So a greater percentage of voters thought the economy was the most important issue in 2012 and the majority of them voted Republican. This time a smaller percentage thought it was the most important issue and the majority of those that did voted Democrat.

And yes if I break it down State by State for 2016 you'll see the same thing. State by State, the majority of people who thought the economy was the most important issue voted for Clinton.

It's just ridiculous to continue to insist that Trump won because of the economy. Again: We really didn't need the study I linked to tell us that the idea is nonsense. But it's nice to see it nonetheless.

[BDKJMU]

Is it May of 2017..?
I feel like maybe I've lived this day already - I'm experiencing some kind f deja vu

You have. 5 months JSO has been at this:
http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... n%2C+trump

I wondering which obsession will go longer- JSO & his election studies, or KY & the Russians..

[JohnStOnge]

What percent of the white working class went to Trump as opposed to Romney and McCain?

You know, readily available exit polling results don't allow me to get directly at that. There are no breakdowns by race/income in either set and there's no breakdown of race/education in the 2012 set. However, I can say that Romney got a higher percentage of the popular vote than Trump did (47.2% to 46.1%). He also about the same margin among White voters overall (Romney by an estimated 59% to 39% and Trump by an estimated 57% to 37%). So to the extent that he may have gained support among the White "working class" he had to have lost about the same amount of support among other Whites.

Again, though: People were actually asked about what issues were important to them and how they voted. And whether you look at the results of that questioning nationally or State by State it's clear that it wasn't the economy that got Trump over the top. It was stuff like concern over immigration and terrorism.

[Ibanez]

I mean about the Trump win not being an "It's the economy stupid" thing:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ty/525771/

In the wake of Trump’s surprise win, some journalists, scholars, and political strategists argued that economic anxiety drove these Americans to Trump. But new analysis of post-election survey data conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic found something different: Evidence suggests financially troubled voters in the white working class were more likely to prefer Clinton over Trump. Besides partisan affiliation, it was cultural anxiety—feeling like a stranger in America, supporting the deportation of immigrants, and hesitating about educational investment—that best predicted support for Trump.

Of course, as you know, to me the exit polling results made it immediately obvious that it wasn't the economy because, consistent with the statement above about financially troubled voters being more likely to vote for Clinton, the exit polls showed that people who considered the economy the most important issue voted for Clinton by a solid margin.

So you're saying people that aren't financially troubled don't worry about the economy? That's quite dumb.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JohnStOnge]

I mean about the Trump win not being an "It's the economy stupid" thing:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... ty/525771/



Of course, as you know, to me the exit polling results made it immediately obvious that it wasn't the economy because, consistent with the statement above about financially troubled voters being more likely to vote for Clinton, the exit polls showed that people who considered the economy the most important issue voted for Clinton by a solid margin.

Sounds extremely inconclusive. This paragraph doesn't exactly jive with your narrative...

Finally, 54 percent of white working-class Americans said investing in college education is a risky gamble, including 61 percent of white working-class men. White working-class voters who held this belief were almost twice as likely as their peers to support Trump. “The enduring narrative of the American dream is that if you study and get a college education and work hard, you can get ahead,” said Robert P. Jones, the CEO of PRRI. “The survey shows that many white working-class Americans, especially men, no longer see that path available to them. … It is this sense of economic fatalism, more than just economic hardship, that was the decisive factor in support for Trump among white working-class voters.”

So it wasn't the economy, stupid, but it was economic fatalism?

Kalm, we disagree a lot but I think you are intellectually honest. And in that regard I think you need to look at the over arching theme of the article. And I think that theme is pretty much summarized by this statement from it:

Polling is a notoriously clumsy instrument for understanding people’s lives, and provides only a sketch of who they are. But it’s useful for debunking myths and narratives—particularly the ubiquitous idea that economic anxiety drove white working-class voters to support Trump

You can also click on the link to the study report itself and see this statement:

Overall, the model demonstrates that besides partisanship, fears about immigrants and cultural displacement were more powerful factors than economic concerns in predicting support for Trump among white working-class voters. Moreover, the effects of economic concerns were complex—with economic fatalism predicting support for Trump, but economic hardship predicting support for Clinton.

Whether you choose to agree with the conclusions of the study or not, they are clearly at odds with the "it was the economy stupid" paradigm.

BTW never considered the cultural displacement thing before I saw the report because that's not in exit polls. But exit polling results are CERTAINLY consistent with the statement about immigrants. Exit polling showed that was CLEARLY a motivating factor that strongly favored Trump.

[JohnStOnge]

[
So you're saying people that aren't financially troubled don't worry about the economy? That's quite dumb.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No, what I personally have been saying for a long time is that the majority of the people who thought the economy was the most important issue voted for Clinton both nationally and within individual States including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The authors of the study I linked indicated that the majority of the people who were under most economic stress voted for Clinton. That is indeed consistent with exit polling because exit polling indicates that people from households with incomes of <$50,000 per year voted for Clinton by an estimated 53% to 41%.

Again: People were asked about what issues they considered important and how they voted. And the results of that questioning do not at ALL support the idea that Trump won because of the economy.

I guess in the grand scheme of things it really doesn't matter if people choose to cling to myths like the idea that Trump won because of economic concerns. But it IS a myth.

[houndawg]

[
So you're saying people that aren't financially troubled don't worry about the economy? That's quite dumb.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No, what I personally have been saying for a long time is that the majority of the people who thought the economy was the most important issue voted for Clinton both nationally and within individual States including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The authors of the study I linked indicated that the majority of the people who were under most economic stress voted for Clinton. That is indeed consistent with exit polling because exit polling indicates that people from households with incomes of <$50,000 per year voted for Clinton by an estimated 53% to 41%.

Again: People were asked about what issues they considered important and how they voted. And the results of that questioning do not at ALL support the idea that Trump won because of the economy.

I guess in the grand scheme of things it really doesn't matter if people choose to cling to myths like the idea that Trump won because of economic concerns. But it IS a myth.

Trump won because he wasn't Hillary Clinton.

[Rob Iola]

So did you guys get a new dog?

[Ibanez]

Is your wife still part of the LA RNC?

[kalm]

Are the crappy biting at Lacassine?

[andy7171]

No, what I personally have been saying for a long time is that the majority of the people who thought the economy was the most important issue voted for Clinton both nationally and within individual States including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The authors of the study I linked indicated that the majority of the people who were under most economic stress voted for Clinton. That is indeed consistent with exit polling because exit polling indicates that people from households with incomes of <$50,000 per year voted for Clinton by an estimated 53% to 41%.

Again: People were asked about what issues they considered important and how they voted. And the results of that questioning do not at ALL support the idea that Trump won because of the economy.

I guess in the grand scheme of things it really doesn't matter if people choose to cling to myths like the idea that Trump won because of economic concerns. But it IS a myth.

Trump won because he wasn't Hillary Clinton.

This. +6.93

[bandl]

So did you guys get a new dog?

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