Bubble Burster GotY - Kennesaw @ Charleston Southern

[Mvemjsunpx]

Liberty finished 4-1 in conference, CSU & Kennesaw are currently 3-1. Liberty beat Kennesaw, lost to CSU. The Big South has a history of the conference favorite choking away the title in the final week.


If Charleston Southern wins - The Bucs get the auto-bid. Liberty has to beat Coastal Carolina to have any hope at the playoffs, but their resume would still be marginal even with that win. Kennesaw is almost certainly out with an awful 8-3 resume.

If Kennesaw State wins - Liberty gets the auto and their game with Coastal is irrelevant. Charleston Southern should still get an at-large. Kennesaw suddenly has a good at-large chance with a notable win on its resume.


This means the Big South would go from likely getting 1 team in if CSU wins to plausibly getting 3 teams in if the Owls pull the upset. Bubble teams should spend most of their efforts rooting hard for the Buccaneers this weekend.

[Gil Dobie]

If Chuck South loses, they would be 5-4 against DI teams. I know DII games count, but that might not be enough in this case.

[Mvemjsunpx]

If Chuck South loses, they would be 5-4 against DI teams. I know DII games count, but that might not be enough in this case.

That includes the Florida State loss, though. They also have a win over Coastal. That resume still looks better than at least some of the bubble teams.

[Libertine]

If Kennesaw State wins - Liberty gets the auto and their game with Coastal is irrelevant. Charleston Southern should still get an at-large.

This isn't the bubble-buster game you are looking for.

The autobid is Charleston Southern's ONLY ticket to the playoffs. There is zero chance CSU would get an at-large with only 5 D1 wins regardless of their ranking. Six D1 wins is the minimum and there are 34 other teams at that mark right now with a week still left to play. Another nine could hit it this weekend.

The Big South will certainly have one team in the playoffs. Two is unlikely. Three is simply not going to happen.

[Mvemjsunpx]

If Kennesaw State wins - Liberty gets the auto and their game with Coastal is irrelevant. Charleston Southern should still get an at-large.

This isn't the bubble-buster game you are looking for.

The autobid is Charleston Southern's ONLY ticket to the playoffs. There is zero chance CSU would get an at-large with only 5 D1 wins regardless of their ranking. Six D1 wins is the minimum and there are 34 other teams at that mark right now with a week still left to play. Another nine could hit it this weekend.

The Big South will certainly have one team in the playoffs. Two is unlikely. Three is simply not going to happen.

I don't think the number of wins is a set thing anymore, but you could be right. At any rate, I'd be quite surprised if CSU lost to Kennesaw.

[Libertine]

Actually, YOU may be right. I went looking for the 6-game requirement and can't find it anymore. Instead, I'm seeing a mathematical formula (yay!) about points for wins/losses combined with an average strength of schedule factor based upon the result of the formula it's trying to calculate. In typical NCAA-ese, this is known as the Simple Rating System. That list is available at http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f ... ngs-system but hasn't been updated since last November.

That said, I ran the W-L points portion of it (before SRS schedule-ranking or Margin of Victory are factored in) and the SOS rankings from the NCAA stats page (which may or may not be a factor at all, who knows?) for the teams that have five or six D-1 wins (ie., bubble teams). I also factored in the two top MEAC schools as only one will be participating in the Celebration Bowl. This is obviously only going to tell part of the story but it reads as follows:

W-L Points
NC A&T 8.1 (9.35/7.35 depending on game result) NCAA SOS 117
NC Central 6.6 (7.35/5.35) NCAA SOS 123
Kennesaw 5.2 (6.45/4.45) NCAA SOS 53
Wofford 4.5 (5.25/3.25) NCAA SOS 10
Samford 4.0 (5.25/3.25) NCAA SOS 2
Duquesne 3.5 (4.75/2.75) NCAA SOS 19
Fordham 3.5 ((4.75/2.75) NCAA SOS 85
UT-Martin 3.45 (4.7/2.7) NCAA SOS 113
Maine 2.7 (3.45/1.45) NCAA SOS 13
Charleston Sou 3.25 (4.0/2.0) NCAA SOS 14
Sacred Heart 2.5 (3.25/1.25) NCAA SOS 103
Cal Poly 2.1 (2.85/0.85) NCAA SOS 1
Albany 2.1 (2.85/0.85) NCAA SOS 32
UNH 2.1 (3.35/1.35) NCAA SOS 86
W Illinois 2.1 (3.35/1.35) NCAA SOS 34
SE Louisiana 2.1 (3.35/1.35) NCAA SOS 109
Tennessee St 2.1 (3.35/1.35) NCAA SOS 119
Montana 2.0 (2.75/0.75) NCAA SOS 51
N Colorado 2.0 (3.25/1.25) NCAA SOS 55
Liberty 1.7 (2.95/0.95) NCAA SOS 42
Illinois St .85 (reg season complete) NCAA SOS 40
Mercer 0.6 (1.35/-0.35) NCAA SOS 61
S Utah 0.2 (1.45/-.45) NCAA SOS 59
Nicholls St 0.2 (.95/-1.05) NCAA SOS 46
Weber St 0.1 (1.35/-0.65) NCAA SOS 67
N Iowa 0.1 (.85/-1.15) NCAA SOS 11
E Illinois 0.1 (1.35./-0.65) NCAA SOS 61
Stony Brook -0.4 (.85/-1.15) NCAA SOS 11

[89Hen]

plausibly getting 3 teams in if the Owls pull the upset

No chance sunny.

[kalm]

plausibly getting 3 teams in if the Owls pull the upset

No chance sunny.

At 9-2 you wouldn't have them in over a 7-4 From a power conference?

[89Hen]

No chance sunny.

At 9-2 you wouldn't have them in over a 7-4 From a power conference?

Not even close. Point University, Missouri S&T, Clark Atlanta...

[kalm]

At 9-2 you wouldn't have them in over a 7-4 From a power conference?

Not even close. Point University, Missouri S&T, Clark Atlanta...

Interesting. How about a 6-5?

[89Hen]

Not even close. Point University, Missouri S&T, Clark Atlanta...

Interesting. How about a 6-5?

Neither get in. I do not think a 6-5 team should be in the playoffs no matter how hard their schedule. There is a balance between record and SOS. I can't tell you exactly where that is, but I know it when I see it and I do know that 6-5 aint worthy.

[Gil Dobie]

Interesting. How about a 6-5?

Neither get in. I do not think a 6-5 team should be in the playoffs no matter how hard their schedule. There is a balance between record and SOS. I can't tell you exactly where that is, but I know it when I see it and I do know that 6-5 aint worthy.

Even if they are 6-4 against FCS?

[89Hen]

Neither get in. I do not think a 6-5 team should be in the playoffs no matter how hard their schedule. There is a balance between record and SOS. I can't tell you exactly where that is, but I know it when I see it and I do know that 6-5 aint worthy.

Even if they are 6-4 against FCS?

No. Who made their schedule?

[clenz]

CSU isn't getting in without the autobid.

I said that the second they lost to NDSU. I took a look at their schedule at that point and said they were fucked without their AQ

[BucDad62]

You're a GENIUS Gump