Playoff Committee Top 10, November 11, 2016

[Rob Iola]

That's probably not the argument that Rob is speaking of

He's figuring JSO has something up his analytical sleeve?

[Ibanez]

I'm sure there's another thread on this, but this is what I have...

Likely (18): North Dakota, Eastern Washington, ChuckSo/Liberty (I don't know the tiebreaker if necessary), JMU, Richmond, Villanova, NDSU, SDSU, YSU, St Francis, JaxSt, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, Chattanooga, Samford, Sam Houston, Central Ark

I think winner of Maine/UNH gets in (19)

The Big Sky is just a CF. Looking very likely that there will be three 7-4 teams. Problem is that the committee loves the Griz for attendance, but they lost to both CalPoly and NoCo, so the winner of that game "should" be in front of the Griz IMO. And how do you take a 4-4 BSC team over a 6-2 Weber? The size of the conference really effed things up. BSC teams need to root for VMI this week so all three of these 7-4 teams can get in (22).

Bubble for 2 spots: Wofford, WIU, Chuck So/Liberty, Southeastern Louisiana

Bubble, but out: Tennessee State, Fordham, Kennesaw State, Albany, Dayton


A side note, I just saw that Tennessee-Martin played three I-A games and one NAIA game. WTF? They should be thrown out of I-AA.

SELA and Liberty have no good wins. They both can help that a bit this weekend if they beat Nicholls (but who would finish 5-6) and CCU.


Wofford, WIU, and Poly are locks with wins and all three should . UNI and ISUr are just likely as the rest of the 7-4's due to SoS and quality wins. Montana might be the next most likely with wins over another playoff team in St. Francis and a resurgent UNI.

How useful would a win against CCU be? We don't matter anymore (or even less than we did.)

[kalm]

Hopefully SDSU beats UNI so this will be moot. The fact that we're talking about a 5-5 team for playoffs is a joke and shows without a doubt that 16 was the correct number for participants.

Sure. If you like less football and chances to interconference matchups.

[kalm]

SELA and Liberty have no good wins. They both can help that a bit this weekend if they beat Nicholls (but who would finish 5-6) and CCU.


Wofford, WIU, and Poly are locks with wins and all three should . UNI and ISUr are just likely as the rest of the 7-4's due to SoS and quality wins. Montana might be the next most likely with wins over another playoff team in St. Francis and a resurgent UNI.

How useful would a win against CCU be? We don't matter anymore (or even less than we did.)

Quality win against a solid team with more schollies.

[89Hen]

Hopefully SDSU beats UNI so this will be moot. The fact that we're talking about a 5-5 team for playoffs is a joke and shows without a doubt that 16 was the correct number for participants.

Sure. If you like less football and chances to interconference matchups.

A 6-5 WIU met it's demise in the round of 16 to a MVFC team, so... yeah.

[89Hen]

Hopefully SDSU beats UNI so this will be moot. The fact that we're talking about a 5-5 team for playoffs is a joke and shows without a doubt that 16 was the correct number for participants.

Sure. If you like less football and chances to interconference matchups.

BTW, using your logic, you'd be up for a 128 team field if we could just find a few more teams.

[Gil Dobie]

Hopefully SDSU beats UNI so this will be moot. The fact that we're talking about a 5-5 team for playoffs is a joke and shows without a doubt that 16 was the correct number for participants.

The first round bye gives the 8 seeds a reward.

[89Hen]

Hopefully SDSU beats UNI so this will be moot. The fact that we're talking about a 5-5 team for playoffs is a joke and shows without a doubt that 16 was the correct number for participants.

The first round bye gives the 8 seeds a reward.

Maybe we can give them ribbons instead. I thought home field was a reward.

[Gil Dobie]

The first round bye gives the 8 seeds a reward.

Maybe we can give them ribbons instead. I thought home field was a reward.

The bye week is the double-bonus.

[clenz]

Sure. If you like less football and chances to interconference matchups.

A 6-5 WIU met it's demise in the round of 16 to a MVFC team, so... yeah.

Well 5 MVFC teams were put on the same side of the bracket last year.

IIRC only 1 MVFC team lost to a non-MVFC team in the playoffs last season.

[89Hen]

A 6-5 WIU met it's demise in the round of 16 to a MVFC team, so... yeah.

Well 5 MVFC teams were put on the same side of the bracket last year.

IIRC only 1 MVFC team lost to a non-MVFC team in the playoffs last season.

Actually two of the four that lost were to non-MVFC, but that's not the point. Kalm said I must not like interconference match-ups. As you (and I) pointed out, the MVFC didn't have too many of those.

[89Hen]

Maybe we can give them ribbons instead. I thought home field was a reward.

The bye week is the double-bonus.

Didn't know that was the point of the playoffs. You must like Wall Street.

[Gil Dobie]

The bye week is the double-bonus.

Didn't know that was the point of the playoffs. You must like Wall Street.

Movie was okay, but I like the playoffs more, and more football is fun to watch.

[89Hen]

Didn't know that was the point of the playoffs. You must like Wall Street.

Movie was okay, but I like the playoffs more, and more football is fun to watch.

Often, but I don't find myself watching 6-5 teams battle it out.

[clenz]

Movie was okay, but I like the playoffs more, and more football is fun to watch.

Often, but I don't find myself watching 6-5 teams battle it out.

We can't all play SHSU's schedule.

[Gil Dobie]

Movie was okay, but I like the playoffs more, and more football is fun to watch.

Often, but I don't find myself watching 6-5 teams battle it out.

Would you rather watch a 12-1 Jacksonville St beat a 11-3 Sam Houston 62-10? There are some good games in the early rounds.

[kalm]

Sure. If you like less football and chances to interconference matchups.

BTW, using your logic, you'd be up for a 128 team field if we could just find a few more teams.

I think 32 would be sufficient. But using logic like yours you probably turn off the TV for Wildcard weekend.

Oh...and who did WIU play in the first round last year?

That was the first time it's happened but I'm fine with it happening again. I like football more than you.

[Wildcat Ryan]

I like watching more football, but I'm not too big on the whole seeding teams not in the top 8 based on geography. That whole entire MVFC on one side of the bracket stuff is a crock

[BDKJMU]

Like I said on the JMU board, here's my guess:
CAA: JMU, UR, VU, UNH
So-Con: Citadel, Chatty, Samford, Wofford
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU, YSU, WIU, either UNI or ILSU
Big Sky: EWU, ND, Weber, Cal Poly
Southland: SHSU, UCA,
OVC: JSU
Big South: CSU
Patriot: Lehigh
NEC: StFU
Pioneer: San Diego

[kalm]

Like I said on the JMU board, here's my guess:
CAA: JMU, UR, VU, UNH
So-Con: Citadel, Chatty, Samford, Wofford
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU, YSU, WIU
Big Sky: EWU, ND, Weber, Cal Poly
Southland: SHSU, UCA, SELA
OVC: JSU
Big South: CSU
Patriot: Lehigh
NEC: StFU
Pioneer: San Diego

Albany would be in over SELA and UNH with a win. The best wins for each would be Maine (6-5) and Nicholls (5-6). Albany would have wins over FBS Buffalo and the H2H over UNH.

All three would have bad losses. SELA to a 3-7 Lamar, UNH to a 4-6 Dartmouth, and Albany to a 4-6 Delaware. That's why I think the two 6-5 MVFC teams would have a shot.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Like I said on the JMU board, here's my guess:
CAA: JMU, UR, VU, UNH
So-Con: Citadel, Chatty, Samford, Wofford
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU, YSU, WIU
Big Sky: EWU, ND, Weber, Cal Poly
Southland: SHSU, UCA, SELA
OVC: JSU
Big South: CSU
Patriot: Lehigh
NEC: StFU
Pioneer: San Diego

Southeastern Louisiana? Their resume is garbage: nothing resembling a good win and multiple terrible losses.

I actually see Montana as being firmly on the bubble (assuming they beat MSU), which is a better position than I thought they'd be in after losing to NoCo. That road win over Northern Iowa could go a long way, especially if the committee ranks WIU behind UNI.

[BDKJMU]

BTW, using your logic, you'd be up for a 128 team field if we could just find a few more teams.

I think 32 would be sufficient. But using logic like yours you probably turn off the TV for Wildcard weekend.

Oh...and who did WIU play in the first round last year?

That was the first time it's happened but I'm fine with it happening again. I like football more than you.

And that will never happen thank goodness because there's never going to be 16 conferences with AQs thereby requiring 16 At Large. The playoffs are suppose to be for conference winners and 7+ Div I win good teams having good seasons, not mediocre teams 6-5 teams.

We'd be better off dropping back to 20 since have only 10 conference AQ.

[BDKJMU]

Like I said on the JMU board, here's my guess:
CAA: JMU, UR, VU, UNH
So-Con: Citadel, Chatty, Samford, Wofford
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU, YSU, WIU
Big Sky: EWU, ND, Weber, Cal Poly
Southland: SHSU, UCA, SELA
OVC: JSU
Big South: CSU
Patriot: Lehigh
NEC: StFU
Pioneer: San Diego

Southeastern Louisiana? Their resume is garbage: nothing resembling a good win and multiple terrible losses.

I actually see Montana as being firmly on the bubble (assuming they beat MSU), which is a better position than I thought they'd be in after losing to NoCo. That road win over Northern Iowa could go a long way, especially if the committee ranks WIU behind UNI.

-With SELA was just looking for someone to throw into the 24th spot. Yeah, SELA has a weak resume for a 7-4 if they win Sat @ Nichols to go 7-2 Southland- didn't beat any playoff team. But I only see 1 terrible loss- @ Lamar by 24 (unless you consider losing by 5 @ S UT a terrible loss). The other 2 losses were badly to Oklahoma and UCA..
-Montana didn't play a I-A and has 4 I-AA losses. They are 3-4 Big Sky, in 8th place out of 13 teams. I see if they win Sat they'll be in a 3 way tie for 5th..Looks like they'll be 1-2 vs playoff teams (the win over StFU) unless UNI upsets SDSU and gets in.
-Course if UNI upsets SDSU they would have a case at 6-5 with maybe the toughest schedule in the country.
-Heck, if Albany beats SBU they will be 7-4/4-4 CAA with a G5 win & win over playoff UNH (if UNH beats Maine). But they have a bad loss to UD
-If SBU beats Albany they would be 6-5 but with 2 wins over possible seeds (ND & UR) but also a couple of BAD losses.

[BDKJMU]

Like I said on the JMU board, here's my guess:
CAA: JMU, UR, VU, UNH
So-Con: Citadel, Chatty, Samford, Wofford
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU, YSU, WIU
Big Sky: EWU, ND, Weber, Cal Poly
Southland: SHSU, UCA, SELA
OVC: JSU
Big South: CSU
Patriot: Lehigh
NEC: StFU
Pioneer: San Diego

Albany would be in over SELA and UNH with a win. The best wins for each would be Maine (6-5) and Nicholls (5-6). Albany would have wins over FBS Buffalo and the H2H over UNH.

All three would have bad losses. SELA to a 3-7 Lamar, UNH to a 4-6 Dartmouth, and Albany to a 4-6 Delaware. That's why I think the two 6-5 MVFC teams would have a shot.

I didn't want to appear like a CAA homer with 5 CAA by putting Albany..

[Mvemjsunpx]

Southeastern Louisiana? Their resume is garbage: nothing resembling a good win and multiple terrible losses.

I actually see Montana as being firmly on the bubble (assuming they beat MSU), which is a better position than I thought they'd be in after losing to NoCo. That road win over Northern Iowa could go a long way, especially if the committee ranks WIU behind UNI.

-With SELA was just looking for someone to throw into the 24th spot. Yeah, SELA has a weak resume for a 7-4 if they win Sat @ Nichols to go 7-2 Southland- didn't beat any playoff team. But I only see 1 terrible loss- @ Lamar by 24 (unless you consider losing by 5 @ S UT a terrible loss). The other 2 losses were badly to Oklahoma and UCA..
-Montana didn't play a I-A and has 4 I-AA losses. They are 3-4 Big Sky, in 8th place out of 13 teams. I see if they win Sat they'll be in a 3 way tie for 5th..Looks like they'll be 1-2 vs playoff teams (the win over StFU) unless UNI upsets SDSU and gets in.

SELU was also blown out by Central Arkansas. Losing to Central Arkansas isn't bad, but any blowout loss to a non-FBS is bad. The Lions' loss to SUU is only kinda bad, but Montana did beat SUU by 23.

-Course if UNI upsets SDSU they would have a case at 6-5 with maybe the toughest schedule in the country.

I'm not sure that's really an upset. UNI's at home and they're currently favored by 4.5.