Playoff Committee Top 10, November 11, 2016

[Gil Dobie]

They sure dropped Sam Houston after a week of research and a close game with McNeese St.

1. JSU
2. EWU
3. NDSU
4. JMU
5. SHSU
6. The Citadel
7. Chattanooga
8. Richmond
9. UCA
10. UND

[SuperHornet]

Say what?

[CID1990]

They sure dropped Sam Houston after a week of research and a close game with McNeese St.

1. JSU
2. EWU
3. NDSU
4. JMU
5. SHSU
6. The Citadel
7. Chattanooga
8. Richmond
9. UCA
10. UND

horse shit


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[BDKJMU]

Good news for JMU 2nd straight win on the road over a top 10. At 9-1/7-0 have locked up the conference title. BAD NEWS is early 2nd qtr JMU's starting QB Bryan Schor went down to injury, reportedly a broken collarbone. He was having an All American type season:
Passing: 2k+ yds, 18 TDs, 3 INTs, 73% completion percentage (leads nation), passing efficiency 2nd in nation.
The previous 4 games: 3 vs likely playoff teams (UNH, UR & 1+ qtr vs VU's #3 in the nation defense going 10 for 11) his passing efficiency was absolutely sick: 71 for 88 (81%), 12 TDs, 0 INTs.
Rushing: 545 yds, 9 TDs.

The backup QB for JMU, SC transfer Connor Mitch, who started the 1st 2 games last season under Steve Spurrier before being injured, has been out for the last couple of weeks with a non football related injury (several on JMU board have said 'moving furniture' or 'moving a refirgerator' ). So with the score vs Villanova tied 7-7, JMU, in lieu of putting in what had been the 3rd string QB, a rJr walkon, JMU pulled the redshirt off a true freshman QB. Initially a disaster- kid threw 2nd Qtr picks and looked like a deer in headlights vs the #3 defense in the country with a 6'7"/290 lb All American de end (likely 2nd-4th round pick). At halftime JMU fans thought had little chance to win the game, But JMU's defense played out of their minds, playing their best game of the season (excluding the 3 crap opponents), forcing 4 VU turnovers, 3 in the 2nd half, and won 20-7.

JMU has 2 bye weeks coming up (Elon and 1st round playoffs). All kinds of speculation on the JMU board as to when/if Schor will return. Everything from 3 weeks in time for the playoffs to out for the season. The backup SC transfer should be back 'sometime this season.

[Gil Dobie]

Wonder if Iowa's win against Michigan will affect the SOS that the committee looks at?

[kalm]

They sure dropped Sam Houston after a week of research and a close game with McNeese St.

1. JSU
2. EWU
3. NDSU
4. JMU
5. SHSU
6. The Citadel
7. Chattanooga
8. Richmond
9. UCA
10. UND

horse shit


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I have:

NDSU
EWU
JMU
The Citadel
JSU
SHSU

I value SoS and quality wins high. You could make a case for The Citadel being 3 but the one minor knock is that every win against a quality opponent has been very close. If the Citadel were to knock off UNC they'd be #1. If they play UNC tight, they'd move ahead of JMU.

[BDKJMU]

The committee will likely make note of the the JMU QB situation in seeding JMU. On the JMU board, per Bryan Schor's father on twitter, he's having surgery today to insert plates on the broken collar bone, non-throwing shoulder, and will be out 3-4 weeks. So if true would likely miss round of 16 game, maybe make it back for quarterfinals if JMU won round of 16. I think JMU's chances making it past the quarterfinals without him would be very remote. JMU HC:
https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/sta ... 6686581760

[89Hen]

I'm sure there's another thread on this, but this is what I have...

Likely (18): North Dakota, Eastern Washington, ChuckSo/Liberty (I don't know the tiebreaker if necessary), JMU, Richmond, Villanova, NDSU, SDSU, YSU, St Francis, JaxSt, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, Chattanooga, Samford, Sam Houston, Central Ark

I think winner of Maine/UNH gets in (19)

The Big Sky is just a CF. Looking very likely that there will be three 7-4 teams. Problem is that the committee loves the Griz for attendance, but they lost to both CalPoly and NoCo, so the winner of that game "should" be in front of the Griz IMO. And how do you take a 4-4 BSC team over a 6-2 Weber? The size of the conference really effed things up. BSC teams need to root for VMI this week so all three of these 7-4 teams can get in (22).

Bubble for 2 spots: Wofford, WIU, Chuck So/Liberty, Southeastern Louisiana

Bubble, but out: Tennessee State, Fordham, Kennesaw State, Albany, Dayton


A side note, I just saw that Tennessee-Martin played three I-A games and one NAIA game. WTF? They should be thrown out of I-AA.

[Wildcat Ryan]

I'm sure there's another thread on this, but this is what I have...

Likely (18): North Dakota, Eastern Washington, ChuckSo/Liberty (I don't know the tiebreaker if necessary), JMU, Richmond, Villanova, NDSU, SDSU, YSU, St Francis, JaxSt, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, Chattanooga, Samford, Sam Houston, Central Ark

I think winner of Maine/UNH gets in (19)

The Big Sky is just a CF. Looking very likely that there will be three 7-4 teams. Problem is that the committee loves the Griz for attendance, but they lost to both CalPoly and NoCo, so the winner of that game "should" be in front of the Griz IMO. And how do you take a 4-4 BSC team over a 6-2 Weber? The size of the conference really effed things up. BSC teams need to root for VMI this week so all three of these 7-4 teams can get in (22).

Bubble for 2 spots: Wofford, WIU, Chuck So/Liberty, Southeastern Louisiana

Bubble, but out: Tennessee State, Fordham, Kennesaw State, Albany, Dayton


A side note, I just saw that Tennessee-Martin played three I-A games and one NAIA game. WTF? They should be thrown out of I-AA.

The way I see it, Montana's playoff hopes hinge on whether Weber State wins @ ISU.

If Weber wins @ ISU and Poly beats UNC the Big Sky playoff field should include EWU, UND, Poly and Weber. I just don't see how the committee could justify using money as a reason to allow Montana a spot at least not this year. Again this is assuming Weber beats the Bengals.

However if Weber loses to ISU that will open up a spot and then the committee would most likely give it to Montana. Due to having 7 DI wins and of course $$$.

Another interesting fact to look at is even at 7-4 UNC may get leap frogged by a 7-4 Montana regardless of conference standings due to history, money and having 7 DI wins. UNC can only finish with 6 DI wins.

I think the Big Sky will get 4 regardless, but who goes beside EWU and UND fringes a lot on whether Weber wins or loses.

Weber wins, Poly Wins
EWU, UND, WSU, Poly

Weber wins, UNC Wins
EWU, UND, WSU, UNC

Weber loses, Poly wins
EWU, UND, Poly, UM

Weber loses, UNC wins
EWU, UND, UM, UNC

[Hambone]

It's too bad NAU had some issues early in the year. They were a very good squad and would give someone fits in the playoffs if they would have made it. I also like Weber - stronger than most give them credit for. Too bad they had the loss at USD, as they would definitely be in with a win this weekend had they won that one.

[89Hen]

NAU had some issues... would give someone fits in the playoffs if they would have made it...

I'll save you some time. Copy this to your desktop and you can post it again next year, and the next, and the next... NAU always seems to be the team that is close to being good, but screws something up along the way. This is the first year in the last five that they haven't beaten either EWU or Montana. My guess is they lose to SUU this week. IF they were to do that, it would mark the fifth time in nine seasons they would have lost at least two in a row to close out the season.

[ewueagle2010]

NAU had some issues... would give someone fits in the playoffs if they would have made it...

I'll save you some time. Copy this to your desktop and you can post it again next year, and the next, and the next... NAU always seems to be the team that is close to being good, but screws something up along the way. This is the first year in the last five that they haven't beaten either EWU or Montana. My guess is they lose to SUU this week. IF they were to do that, it would mark the fifth time in nine seasons they would have lost at least two in a row to close out the season.

NAU did beat Montana...handily.

[89Hen]

I'll save you some time. Copy this to your desktop and you can post it again next year, and the next, and the next... NAU always seems to be the team that is close to being good, but screws something up along the way. This is the first year in the last five that they haven't beaten either EWU or Montana. My guess is they lose to SUU this week. IF they were to do that, it would mark the fifth time in nine seasons they would have lost at least two in a row to close out the season.

NAU did beat Montana...handily.

Oops, there you go. So five years in a row they've beaten either Montana or EWU. Not sure many other teams can say that.

[dal4018]

I'm sure there's another thread on this, but this is what I have...

Likely (18): North Dakota, Eastern Washington, ChuckSo/Liberty (I don't know the tiebreaker if necessary), JMU, Richmond, Villanova, NDSU, SDSU, YSU, St Francis, JaxSt, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, Chattanooga, Samford, Sam Houston, Central Ark

I think winner of Maine/UNH gets in (19)

The Big Sky is just a CF. Looking very likely that there will be three 7-4 teams. Problem is that the committee loves the Griz for attendance, but they lost to both CalPoly and NoCo, so the winner of that game "should" be in front of the Griz IMO. And how do you take a 4-4 BSC team over a 6-2 Weber? The size of the conference really effed things up. BSC teams need to root for VMI this week so all three of these 7-4 teams can get in (22).

Bubble for 2 spots: Wofford, WIU, Chuck So/Liberty, Southeastern Louisiana

Bubble, but out: Tennessee State, Fordham, Kennesaw State, Albany, Dayton


A side note, I just saw that Tennessee-Martin played three I-A games and one NAIA game. WTF? They should be thrown out of I-AA.

Tenn St needs to bone up on defense Tenn Tech rushed for 295 yds in a 44-16 rout!!!!And it didn't help that 5 starters on defense that were out.

[89Hen]

Tenn St needs to bone up on defense Tenn Tech rushed for 295 yds in a 44-16 rout!!!!And it didn't help that 5 starters on defense that were out.

In all honesty, TSU should be eliminated from consideration because of their special agreement where they don't play a full conference slate. For Christ's sake, they got to skip the only decent team in the OVC this year.

[Rob Iola]

I think an argument could be made that McNeese belongs in the playoffs.

[89Hen]

I think an argument could be made that McNeese belongs in the playoffs.

They are currently 4-5 against DI opponents. Was it their 35-0 loss at home against UCA or their squeaking by of a 2-8 Incarnate Word that got your attention?

[kalm]

I'm sure there's another thread on this, but this is what I have...

Likely (18): North Dakota, Eastern Washington, ChuckSo/Liberty (I don't know the tiebreaker if necessary), JMU, Richmond, Villanova, NDSU, SDSU, YSU, St Francis, JaxSt, Lehigh, San Diego, The Citadel, Chattanooga, Samford, Sam Houston, Central Ark

I think winner of Maine/UNH gets in (19)

The Big Sky is just a CF. Looking very likely that there will be three 7-4 teams. Problem is that the committee loves the Griz for attendance, but they lost to both CalPoly and NoCo, so the winner of that game "should" be in front of the Griz IMO. And how do you take a 4-4 BSC team over a 6-2 Weber? The size of the conference really effed things up. BSC teams need to root for VMI this week so all three of these 7-4 teams can get in (22).

Bubble for 2 spots: Wofford, WIU, Chuck So/Liberty, Southeastern Louisiana

Bubble, but out: Tennessee State, Fordham, Kennesaw State, Albany, Dayton


A side note, I just saw that Tennessee-Martin played three I-A games and one NAIA game. WTF? They should be thrown out of I-AA.

SELA and Liberty have no good wins. They both can help that a bit this weekend if they beat Nicholls (but who would finish 5-6) and CCU.

Wofford, WIU, and Poly are locks with wins and all three should . UNI and ISUr are just likely as the rest of the 7-4's due to SoS and quality wins. Montana might be the next most likely with wins over another playoff team in St. Francis and a resurgent UNI.

[bandl]

I think an argument could be made that McNeese belongs in the playoffs.

They are currently 4-5 against DI opponents. Was it their 35-0 loss at home against UCA or their squeaking by of a 2-8 Incarnate Word that got your attention?

That's probably not the argument that Rob is speaking of

[89Hen]

They are currently 4-5 against DI opponents. Was it their 35-0 loss at home against UCA or their squeaking by of a 2-8 Incarnate Word that got your attention?

That's probably not the argument that Rob is speaking of

He's figuring JSO has something up his analytical sleeve?

[89Hen]

UNI and ISUr are just likely as the rest of the 7-4's due to SoS and quality wins.

I strongly disagree.

[Gil Dobie]

UNI and ISUr are just likely as the rest of the 7-4's due to SoS and quality wins.

I strongly disagree.

ISUR has an FBS win over Northwestern and wins over SDSU and WIU. 6-5 WIU made the playoffs last year, so the door is open for a 6-5 team.

[kalm]

I strongly disagree.

ISUR has an FBS win over Northwestern and wins over SDSU and WIU. 6-5 WIU made the playoffs last year, so the door is open for a 6-5 team.

They'd each have FBS wins, wins over SDSU and WIU, and top 5 SOS's.

[clenz]

ISUR has an FBS win over Northwestern and wins over SDSU and WIU. 6-5 WIU made the playoffs last year, so the door is open for a 6-5 team.

They'd each have FBS wins, wins over SDSU and WIU, and top 5 SOS's.

Uni wpuld be 5-3 in conference with wins over WIu, SDSU and ISUB (not a good win but ISUR lost to ISUb) and ISUr would be 4-4 in conference.

[89Hen]

Hopefully SDSU beats UNI so this will be moot. The fact that we're talking about a 5-5 team for playoffs is a joke and shows without a doubt that 16 was the correct number for participants.