Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

[CAA Flagship]

Keep up the fight, John.

That's right. Just ignore the reality. Just ignore that if he's speaking before a Black audience he's going to throw the police under the bus but if he's speaking at a rally before his supporters he's going to talk about how pro police he is. Totally consistent with his whole completely vacant modus operandi. Just says whatever he thinks he has to say at the time regardless of whether it's true or not.

You are the one that heard/saw the clip, not me. Why should I believe that you didn't omit anything else he said? What was the context? Reading your posts is like watching MSNBC.

[JohnStOnge]

That's right. Just ignore the reality. Just ignore that if he's speaking before a Black audience he's going to throw the police under the bus but if he's speaking at a rally before his supporters he's going to talk about how pro police he is. Totally consistent with his whole completely vacant modus operandi. Just says whatever he thinks he has to say at the time regardless of whether it's true or not.

Like Hillary faking a southern accent? Or talking about the influence of Wall Street?

Faking a Southern accent was bad. But she has not done anything that involves morphing to suit the people in front of her like Trump did in this case.

[93henfan]

Like Hillary faking a southern accent? Or talking about the influence of Wall Street?

Faking a Southern accent was bad. But she has not done anything that involves morphing to suit the people in front of her like Trump did in this case.

That's a good one!

[93henfan]

While I watch all polls and would be much happier if they all showed Hillary WAY ahead at this point, what I really wait with baited breath for are the polls that are rated "A+" by 538. There are six of them but I only see two of them in the RealClearPolitics display that I check just about daily. Those two are ABC News/Washington Post and Monmouth. Here are the most recent results of those two polls with Johnson and Stein included as far back as I can readily see them on RealClearPolitics.com (results expressed in terms of Clinton vs. Trump margin):

ABC News Washington Post

9/5 - 9/8, likely voters, Clinton by 5
8/1 - 8/4, registered voters, Clinton by 6
7/11 - 7/14, registered voters, Clinton by 4
6/20 - 6/23, registered voters, Clinton by 10

Note that if 9/5 - 9/8 had been reported in terms of registered voters as the previous polls were, it would have been Clinton by 10.

Monmouth

8/25 - 8/28, likely voters, Clinton by 7
8/4 - 8/7, likely voters, Clinton by 13
7/14 - 7/16, likely voters, Clinton by 2
6/15 - 6/19, likely voters, Clinton by 7

So you can see that, if you have your filter on and are looking at the polls that are most highly rated by 538, there is no suggestion of some big trend going on nationally. Of course, unfortunately, the two A+ polls that RealClearPolitics has been posting don't come out very often and that's a factor in thinking about them. That's especially true of Monmouth; which hasn't repoted a national result since back in August.

Hah. I got this doofus all worked up with my 538 tweet. Mission accomplished!!!

[Ibanez]

Keep up the fight, John.

That's right. Just ignore the reality. Just ignore that if he's speaking before a Black audience he's going to throw the police under the bus but if he's speaking at a rally before his supporters he's going to talk about how pro police he is. Totally consistent with his whole completely vacant modus operandi. Just says whatever he thinks he has to say at the time regardless of whether it's true or not.

Clinton isn't any different, ya hypocrite.


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[BDKJMU]

Underdogs tend to do well in the first debate. People were calling Trump the underdog as recently as two weeks ago, but after Hillary's medical episodes I think she has become the underdog and stands to gain the most in the first debate. Hell, just being able to stand (or sit, not sure of the format) for two hours without fainting or going into a 10 minute long lung hacking fit will be a moral victory for her.

I think both of the candidates will be coached to take it easy in this debate. Hillary will want to come right out with accusing Trump of being the defacto national grand wizard of the KKK, but that hasn't been flying too well recently (see "basket of deplorables"). And when she goes into a screech owl soliloquy she looks bad too. If she does that, Trump can just sort of shrug, smirk, and look into the camera with an implied, "get a load of this angry ugly old bitch." If he can continually get her in that trap, she looks really bad. Current events with terrorism and police brutality don't really help the candidate from the sitting party either.

Must see TV.

Nah, no way she's the underdog against Trump in this one. She's the establishment, she's been in debates before, she's the one running on her resume. Trump is a circus act and every bit the buffoon. And besides, Hillary's still the favorite, by any poll, to win this thing. Underdogs don't lead in every poll imaginable, even if the polls are narrowing.

But you're right, Trump's ability to look good on TV could work against Hillary. Just as all the GOP hopefuls who have fallen by the wayside have found out, it's hard to best Trump when it drifts into the realm of reality TV.

Trump is now ahead in a couple of the national 4 way polls, and in a number of polls in different swing states. Hillary is still favored, but not by a lot. Regardless, the polls don't matter much till after the 1st debate..

[DSUrocks07]

Faking a Southern accent was bad. But she has not done anything that involves morphing to suit the people in front of her like Trump did in this case.

That's a good one!

JSO has completely lost all perspective if he truly believes that.

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[CAA Flagship]

Like Hillary faking a southern accent? Or talking about the influence of Wall Street?

Faking a Southern accent was bad. But she has not done anything that involves morphing to suit the people in front of her like Trump did in this case.

Hillary Clinton, who is campaigning in Appalachia this week, was confronted Monday by an out-of-work coal miner. At a roundtable discussion in West Virginia, Bo Copley asked Clinton, "How you can say you're going to put a lot of coal miners out of jobs and then come in here and tell us how you're going to be our friend. Because those people out there don't see you as a friend."
Clinton apologized for her word choice at a CNN Town Hall back in March. She insists she wants to help coal country through a difficult economic transition.

http://www.npr.org/2016/05/03/476485650 ... -coal-jobs

She's a brilliant politician.

[Ibanez]

What's changed?
-- Iowa (6) moves from from "battleground" to "lean Republican"
-- Utah (6) moves from "lean Republican" to "solid Republican"
-- Maine's 2nd Congressional District (1) moves from "solid Democrat" to "battleground"
-- Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (1) moves from "solid Republican" to "battleground"

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/22/politics/ ... index.html

Solid Republican:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6)West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (163 total)

Leans Republican:
Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), (33 total)

Battleground states:
Florida (29), Nevada (6), Ohio (18), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1) Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), North Carolina (15) (70 total)

Leans Democratic:
Colorado (9), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), (72 total)

Solid Democratic:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5) (200 total)

[CAA Flagship]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/h ... rns-931760


This is bizarre. Kudos to Clinton for walking through this minefield.

[CAA Flagship]

[Skjellyfetti]

Solid Republican:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6)West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (163 total)

Leans Republican:
Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), (33 total)

Battleground states:
Florida (29), Nevada (6), Ohio (18), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1) Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), North Carolina (15) (70 total)]

Solid overview of how the map is in Clinton's favor.

If Trump wins EVERY SINGLE battleground state... he'll still lose.

[kalm]

Solid Republican:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6)West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (163 total)

Leans Republican:
Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), (33 total)

Battleground states:
Florida (29), Nevada (6), Ohio (18), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1) Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), North Carolina (15) (70 total)]

Solid overview of how the map is in Clinton's favor.

If Trump wins EVERY SINGLE battleground state... he'll still lose.

Sure does look that way.

[Ibanez]

Solid Republican:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6)West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (163 total)

Leans Republican:
Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), (33 total)

Battleground states:
Florida (29), Nevada (6), Ohio (18), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1) Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), North Carolina (15) (70 total)]

Solid overview of how the map is in Clinton's favor.

If Trump wins EVERY SINGLE battleground state... he'll still lose.

Yup. If he wins all of those, he's 4 short. His best option is to steal one of the states below, preferably Pa or Va.

Leans Democratic:
Colorado (9), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), (72 total)

[Skjellyfetti]

Who thought this was a good idea??

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/b2fc97 ... ccid=false

[Skjellyfetti]

Yup. If he wins all of those, he's 4 short. His best option is to steal one of the states below, preferably Pa or Va.

Leans Democratic:
Colorado (9), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), (72 total)

Yeah, I realize that.

Point is Trump has little to no margin of error. Clinton has quite a bit.

[CAA Flagship]

Who thought this was a good idea??

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/b2fc97 ... ccid=false

Me.

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... 0#p1081470

[CAA Flagship]

Yup. If he wins all of those, he's 4 short. His best option is to steal one of the states below, preferably Pa or Va.

Leans Democratic:
Colorado (9), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), (72 total)

Yeah, I realize that.

Point is Trump has little to no margin of error. Clinton has quite a bit.

Yeah, but not only does Clinton have quite a bit of margin, she's got quite a bit of error.

[BDKJMU]

Solid overview of how the map is in Clinton's favor.

If Trump wins EVERY SINGLE battleground state... he'll still lose.

Yup. If he wins all of those, he's 4 short. His best option is to steal one of the states below, preferably Pa or Va.

Leans Democratic:
Colorado (9), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), (72 total)

What is CNN's criteria for "leans" vs "battleground". I thought some of the "Battleground" were "Lean Republican" (ex NC) and some of the "Leans Democrat" were Battleground.

Regardless, the polls will begin to mean A LOT more about a week after the 1st debate (beginning of Oct). I've seen estimates of over 100 million watching that 1st debate, which would obliterate prior viewing records...

[DSUrocks07]

GOLD!!!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EyoKB3ZHSc[/youtube]

Angry Hillary is angry.

Great temperament for the chosen next leader of the free world. I thought she was supposed to be the "grown up in the room".

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[AZGrizFan]

Like Hillary faking a southern accent? Or talking about the influence of Wall Street?

Faking a Southern accent was bad. But she has not done anything that involves morphing to suit the people in front of her like Trump did in this case.

Denial is a river in Egypt, John.

[Skjellyfetti]

How fucking out of touch are these people?

One of Trump's campaign chairs in Ohio...

Racism didn't exist before Obama was elected. Thought it was just something taken out of context and she just meant in the decade leading up to his election or something.

Nope. Racism didn't even exist in this country in the 1960s.

Miller also dismissed the racial tensions of the 1960s, when she said she graduated from high school. “Growing up as a kid, there was no racism, believe me. We were just all kids going to school.”

Asked about segregation and the civil rights movement, she replied: “I never experienced it. I never saw that as anything.”

Miller added: “I don’t think there was any racism until Obama got elected. We never had problems like this ... Now, with the people with the guns, and shooting up neighborhoods, and not being responsible citizens, that’s a big change, and I think that’s the philosophy that Obama has perpetuated on America.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... CMP=twt_gu

[CAA Flagship]

I hope you guys get to see today's example of how Trump just says whatever the hell he thinks he needs to say at the time. I tried finding it Youtube but no luck so far. But he was talking to a Black audience about the Tulsa police shooting. He says that as far as he could tell the guy that got shot was following all the police orders and such.

Of course that's not what happened. He was not following police orders.

So, do you think Trump would've been taking that position if he was at one of his rallies?

Trump shoots, AND SCORES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Right through JSO's 5-hole.

[Ibanez]

Hillary Clinton exhibited abnormal eye movements during her recent speech in Philadelphia and they were not photoshopped.
Her eyes did not always move in the same direction at the same time. It appears that she has a problem with her left sixth cranial nerve. That nerve serves only one function and that is to make the lateral rectus muscle contract. That muscle turns the eye in the direction away from the midline.

It comes out of the base of the brain and runs along the floor of the skull, immediately beneath the brain before coursing upward to the eye. Dysfunction of that muscle causes the striking picture of the eyes not aiming in the same direction and causes the patient to suffer double vision.

Like all things medical, there is a long list of potential causes but in my opinion the most likely one, based on Clinton's known medical history is an intermittent lateral rectus palsy caused by damage to or pressure on her sixth cranial nerve.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/h ... lth-issues

The video on the page is worth a watch. It's only a few seconds but it'll have you all laughing.


Except for you to JSO.

[CAA Flagship]

Ted Cruz has caved in and announced that he will vote for Trump.