Kalm is Calling the Election

[Chizzang]

If 20-somethings and Women and Latino's don't vote in HUGE numbers
This election will be a cake walk for Trump

Black American's will likely not vote in any substantive numbers this go-round

[89Hen]

If 20-somethings and Women and Latino's don't vote in HUGE numbers
This election will be a cake walk for Trump

Then it's over. 20-somethings are lazy, women don't care and Latino's are too busy working four jobs.

[YoUDeeMan]

If 20-somethings and Women and Latino's don't vote in HUGE numbers
This election will be a cake walk for Trump

Black American's will likely not vote in any substantive numbers this go-round

Hmmmm...the guy from nonBlackville is talking about Blacks.

Blacks will vote...they are slaves to the Democratic party. And, Hillary is saying she is Obama's third term.

[Ibanez]

If 20-somethings and Women and Latino's don't vote in HUGE numbers
This election will be a cake walk for Trump

Black American's will likely not vote in any substantive numbers this go-round

Hmmmm...the guy from nonBlackville is talking about Blacks.

Blacks will vote...they are slaves to the Democratic party. And, Hillary is saying she is Obama's third term.

How many blacks (living, not working) are in your community? Not state. You aren't exactly in a sea of blacks up there in Delaware. Not like down here in the south.

Delaware is about 20% black compared to about 4% in Washington. 28% here in SC.

[YoUDeeMan]

Hmmmm...the guy from nonBlackville is talking about Blacks.

Blacks will vote...they are slaves to the Democratic party. And, Hillary is saying she is Obama's third term.

How many blacks (living, not working) are in your community? Not state. You aren't exactly in a sea of blacks up there in Delaware. Not like down here in the south.

Delaware is about 20% black compared to about 4% in Washington. 28% here in SC.

We're not talking southern Delaware.

New Castle County is 25% Black. I'll help you out...that is about 6.93 out of four. Perhaps you forget that New Castle County, Delaware sits directly along the Washington, Baltimore, Murdertown USA (Wilmington), Chester, PA (runner up to Murdertown USA), Philly, Camden NJ, and Trenton, NJ line (go ahead, check a map)? And we have about half of the county land below the C&D canal (read that as where more White people live), and another chunk of land that includes chateau country in the northern part of the country (read that as wealthy White people and very few Blacks), so the Black population is concentrated in a corridor that runs along I-95.

Guess what road is next to Newark, DE?

We have a Bank of America branch down the road in Bear that does not have one White person working in it. In fact, there are no other employees except Black employees. BOA Diversity?

You can't throw a stick around here without hitting a Black person. Gawdammit, we'll even have one at our crab fest (once again, a 1 in 4 ratio - or 5, if billk makes it). And, you can't read an article in the local rag, The News Urinal, that isn't race related. Not surprising if you know who is the Publisher and President of the newspaper.

Furthermore, we have a guy named Joe Biden, and a VERY Blue State...so everything Obama and Hillary related is plastered all over the place.

So yeah, I think I have a better notion than Chizzy about how the Black population is going to vote this election, and I am guessing most aren't going to vote similarly to DSU.

[Chizzang]

If 20-somethings and Women and Latino's don't vote in HUGE numbers
This election will be a cake walk for Trump

Black American's will likely not vote in any substantive numbers this go-round

Hmmmm...the guy from nonBlackville is talking about Blacks.

Blacks will vote...they are slaves to the Democratic party. And, Hillary is saying she is Obama's third term.

I'm just making note of the historical trend...
All the times Obama wasn't running with the notable exception of 1964 black Americans don't really vote consisting of something like 13% of the US Population as a whole
With a Voting turnout historically in the 30% range

I don't need to move back to Baltimore (where I grew up) to know the trends
I just need to be able to read...

[Ibanez]

How many blacks (living, not working) are in your community? Not state. You aren't exactly in a sea of blacks up there in Delaware. Not like down here in the south.

Delaware is about 20% black compared to about 4% in Washington. 28% here in SC.

We're not talking southern Delaware.

New Castle County is 25% Black. I'll help you out...that is about 6.93 out of four. Perhaps you forget that New Castle County, Delaware sits directly along the Washington, Baltimore, Murdertown USA (Wilmington), Chester, PA (runner up to Murdertown USA), Philly, Camden NJ, and Trenton, NJ line (go ahead, check a map)? And we have about half of the county land below the C&D canal (read that as where more White people live), and another chunk of land that includes chateau country in the northern part of the country (read that as wealthy White people and very few Blacks), so the Black population is concentrated in a corridor that runs along I-95.

Guess what road is next to Newark, DE?

We have a Bank of America branch down the road in Bear that does not have one White person working in it. In fact, there are no other employees except Black employees. BOA Diversity?

You can't throw a stick around here without hitting a Black person. Gawdammit, we'll even have one at our crab fest (once again, a 1 in 4 ratio - or 5, if billk makes it). And, you can't read an article in the local rag, The News Urinal, that isn't race related. Not surprising if you know who is the Publisher and President of the newspaper.

Furthermore, we have a guy named Joe Biden, and a VERY Blue State...so everything Obama and Hillary related is plastered all over the place.

So yeah, I think I have a better notion than Chizzy about how the Black population is going to vote this election, and I am guessing most aren't going to vote similarly to DSU.

I looked up how the demographics for Delaware as a whole. I couldn't care any less, honestly. I'm not the one saying someone can't have an opinion or idea of voting trends based on the demographics of ones home. Anyone with half a brain can see that blacks are rolling out the red carpet to vote for Clinton (which amazes me.)

I don't think your geographic location really matters.

[YoUDeeMan]

Hmmmm...the guy from nonBlackville is talking about Blacks.

Blacks will vote...they are slaves to the Democratic party. And, Hillary is saying she is Obama's third term.

I'm just making note of the historical trend...
All the times Obama wasn't running with the notable exception of 1964 black Americans don't really vote consisting of something like 13% of the US Population as a whole
With a Voting turnout historically in the 30% range

I don't need to move back to Baltimore (where I grew up) to know the trends
I just need to be able to read...

Stop reading and start thinking.

8 years later...after the first half-Black president is leaving office...after Obama phones, after all the special penmanship from Obama, and with Hillary linking herself to a third Obama term...and with Obama campaigning hard to continue his role through Hillary, you think Black people will simply go back into their holes?

Jesus, you are one dumb sumbich.

[Ibanez]

Hmmmm...the guy from nonBlackville is talking about Blacks.

Blacks will vote...they are slaves to the Democratic party. And, Hillary is saying she is Obama's third term.

I'm just making note of the historical trend...
All the times Obama wasn't running with the notable exception of 1964 black Americans don't really vote consisting of something like 13% of the US Population as a whole
With a Voting turnout historically in the 30% range

I don't need to move back to Baltimore (where I grew up) to know the trends
I just need to be able to read...

That doesn't matter! Cluck says you don't have an idea.


Now, if we were talking about coffee and hippies then you'd be our SME.

[Chizzang]

I'm just making note of the historical trend...
All the times Obama wasn't running with the notable exception of 1964 black Americans don't really vote consisting of something like 13% of the US Population as a whole
With a Voting turnout historically in the 30% range

I don't need to move back to Baltimore (where I grew up) to know the trends
I just need to be able to read...

Stop reading and start thinking.

8 years later...after the first half-Black president is leaving office...after Obama phones, after all the special penmanship from Obama, and with Hillary linking herself to a third Obama term...and with Obama campaigning hard to continue his role through Hillary, you think Black people will simply go back into their holes?

Jesus, you are one dumb sumbich.

I think it will be interesting to find out
And there is no indication that they won't "go back into their holes"

Also:
Q: Has the Obama administration started a program to use "taxpayer money" to give free cell phones to welfare recipients?
A: No. Low-income households have been eligible for discounted telephone service for more than a decade. But the program is funded by telecom companies, not by taxes, and the president has nothing to do with it

[Ibanez]

I'm just making note of the historical trend...
All the times Obama wasn't running with the notable exception of 1964 black Americans don't really vote consisting of something like 13% of the US Population as a whole
With a Voting turnout historically in the 30% range

I don't need to move back to Baltimore (where I grew up) to know the trends
I just need to be able to read...

Stop reading and start thinking.

8 years later...after the first half-Black president is leaving office...after Obama phones, after all the special penmanship from Obama, and with Hillary linking herself to a third Obama term...and with Obama campaigning hard to continue his role through Hillary, you think Black people will simply go back into their holes?

Jesus, you are one dumb sumbich.

I'd have to agree (and i'm in an area with many many black folk because apparently that matters).

[YoUDeeMan]

Stop reading and start thinking.

8 years later...after the first half-Black president is leaving office...after Obama phones, after all the special penmanship from Obama, and with Hillary linking herself to a third Obama term...and with Obama campaigning hard to continue his role through Hillary, you think Black people will simply go back into their holes?

Jesus, you are one dumb sumbich.

I think it will be interesting to find out
And there is no indication that they won't "go back into their holes"

Also:
Q: Has the Obama administration started a program to use "taxpayer money" to give free cell phones to welfare recipients?
A: No. Low-income households have been eligible for discounted telephone service for more than a decade. But the program is funded by telecom companies, not by taxes, and the president has nothing to do with it

You're not very good at marketing, are you?

[HI54UNI]

Stop reading and start thinking.

8 years later...after the first half-Black president is leaving office...after Obama phones, after all the special penmanship from Obama, and with Hillary linking herself to a third Obama term...and with Obama campaigning hard to continue his role through Hillary, you think Black people will simply go back into their holes?

Jesus, you are one dumb sumbich.

I think it will be interesting to find out
And there is no indication that they won't "go back into their holes"

Also:
Q: Has the Obama administration started a program to use "taxpayer money" to give free cell phones to welfare recipients?
A: No. Low-income households have been eligible for discounted telephone service for more than a decade. But the program is funded by telecom companies, not by taxes, and the president has nothing to do with it

Good job cutting and pasting from factcheck.org!

Factcheck puts a nice spin on it. Is it "taxpayer money" when it is a separate fee collected by the telecom companies (they don't use their own profits) and submitted to the FCC (or its agent) so we can support this program?

[YoUDeeMan]

Stop reading and start thinking.

8 years later...after the first half-Black president is leaving office...after Obama phones, after all the special penmanship from Obama, and with Hillary linking herself to a third Obama term...and with Obama campaigning hard to continue his role through Hillary, you think Black people will simply go back into their holes?

Jesus, you are one dumb sumbich.

I'd have to agree...

https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/0027d5 ... bfc7dc5e39

[SDHornet]

The blacks that actually vote in November will mostly vote donk, regardless of the fact that they have not prospered under Obama’s 8 years. Trump can make in roads (see DSU) but it’s really a wasted effort and the wrong demographic for him to target. Team Black is a lost cause (politically speaking) for a multitude of reasons.

CNN view on Team Black economics. Right wing view on Team Black economics (BTW DSU, you'd really dig Larry Elder ). Team Black undoubtedly falls somewhere in the middle, but if they heed their own words and have their mind on their money and their money on their minds then they would have been bailed on the donks by now. Stupidly and to their continued plight, they have not.

Trump needs in roads with Team Brown. We’re the one’s going to decide the WH from here on out, and it’s been that way for a while, just ask W.

[BDKJMU]

Well, I hope you're wrong Kalm. Hopefully the Democrats will be successful in exploiting the target rich environment that is Trump's background of behavior and statements.

Otherwise: I don't think there is a "significant" falling trend for Clinton in polling at this point. You've had stuff like Trump up by 2 then Clinton up by 13 in two consecutive polls in the RCP average. There's a lot of variation. I did a trend thing for the poll results up right now and there's no significant trend. But you can see that by just noting that Clinton was +3 in the earliest poll up right now....conducted 4/17 through 4/20...and is +3 in the latest one...conducted entirely on 5/10. In between there were a couple of Clinton spikes to 11.. in a poll conducted 4/20 through 4/24...and to 13... in a poll conducted 4/28 through 5/1.

To list it out, it's like this for Clinton in the set of polls listed right now for Clinton:

+3, +7, +11, -2, +13, +6, +2.

Things could change but right now there's not a lot of evidence of any trend one way or another. Just an overall impression that Clinton is ahead by a modest margin and a lot of variability in the results of different polls.

One thing that gives me hope, though:

The polls that gave Clinton +11 and +13 (USA Today and CNN) are both rated A- by the Poll ratings at http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... r-ratings/. And those ratings were constructed well before the current situation. The other four polls are rated C+, B, C, B-, and C.

In other words, the two most highly rated polls according to that site are the two that showed Clinton up by double digits. At least right now:

The same fivethirtyeight run by these idiots?
"....Harry Enten wrote for FiveThirtyEight on June 16, 2015....“For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another ‘Home Alone’ movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination,”.....

....Prognosticator Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight) remarked in mid-September that Trump would not be the nominee because he is “not really a Republican.”...."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/t ... ons-222789

I'd put the least amount of stock in any poll ratings by fivethirtyeight....

[JoltinJoe]

I think kalm has called this election correctly.

Two important doctrines are at play in this election.

First, the "Hillary Rule," which holds that the more voters are exposed to Hillary Clinton, the less they like her. The "Hillary Rule" explains which Hillary starts off in polls as a favorite (as she did in 2008), and then quickly and dramatically loses support. Good thing for Hillary that she fattened up on the early "Super Tuesday," because she would lose to Sanders in many of those contests if they were held today.

Second, the "Trump Effect," which is comparable to the "Bradley Effect." The "Bradley Effect" holds that white voters will tell a pollster they support a black candidate, even though they intend to vote for another (white) candidate, in order to avoid appearing racist. This swells the black candidate's poll numbers, but then that level of support does not materialize on election day. The "Trump Effect" works in the opposite way. People tell pollsters that they dislike and will not vote for Trump, in order to avoid the embarrassment they feel because they actually intend to vote for Trump. This causes Trump's unfavorability poll numbers to be higher than they actually are.

Trump pwns Clinton in November. kalm has got it right.

[BDKJMU]

The blacks that actually vote in November will mostly vote donk, regardless of the fact that they have not prospered under Obama’s 8 years. Trump can make in roads (see DSU) but it’s really a wasted effort and the wrong demographic for him to target. Team Black is a lost cause (politically speaking) for a multitude of reasons.

CNN view on Team Black economics. Right wing view on Team Black economics (BTW DSU, you'd really dig Larry Elder ). Team Black undoubtedly falls somewhere in the middle, but if they heed their own words and have their mind on their money and their money on their minds then they would have been bailed on the donks by now. Stupidly and to their continued plight, they have not.

Trump needs in roads with Team Brown. We’re the one’s going to decide the WH from here on out, and it’s been that way for a while, just ask W.

Nope. Demographics of 2012 electorate:
72% non hispanic white
13% black
10% Hispanic
3% Asian
2% other.

10% of the electorate isn't as important as 72% of the electorate..

[BDKJMU]

If 20-somethings and Women and Latino's don't vote in HUGE numbers
This election will be a cake walk for Trump

Black American's will likely not vote in any substantive numbers this go-round

Hmmmm...the guy from nonBlackville is talking about Blacks.

Blacks will vote...they are slaves to the Democratic party. And, Hillary is saying she is Obama's third term.

Blacks will vote, but they won't have as high a turnout as they did in 08' and 12'. In 08', for the 1st time ever, black turnout exceeded white turnout, and it happened again in 12'. It won't happen again in 16'. It will slip at least a little. Question is how much?

[expandspanos]

Clinton will win the fraud election

[JohnStOnge]

10% of the electorate isn't as important as 72% of the electorate..

No, but Obama lost among Whites both times and still won because of overwhelming support among non Whites. Democrats have been going without the majority of the White vote nationally for quite some time now. No Democrat has won the majority of the White vote in a Presidential race since at least as far back as Nixon vs. Humphrey in 1968.

[Chizzang]

Good job cutting and pasting from factcheck.org!

Factcheck puts a nice spin on it. Is it "taxpayer money" when it is a separate fee collected by the telecom companies (they don't use their own profits) and submitted to the FCC (or its agent) so we can support this program?

1) Why wouldn't I cut and past from Fact Check..?
2) Based on your argument EVERYTHING that business pay for is a TAX then

One would have an easier time explaining what was NOT a tax based on your point

[HI54UNI]

Good job cutting and pasting from factcheck.org!

Factcheck puts a nice spin on it. Is it "taxpayer money" when it is a separate fee collected by the telecom companies (they don't use their own profits) and submitted to the FCC (or its agent) so we can support this program?

1) Why wouldn't I cut and past from Fact Check..?
2) Based on your argument EVERYTHING that business pay for is a TAX then

One would have an easier time explaining what was NOT a tax based on your point

[JohnStOnge]

The same fivethirtyeight run by these idiots?
"....Harry Enten wrote for FiveThirtyEight on June 16, 2015....“For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another ‘Home Alone’ movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination,”.....

....Prognosticator Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight) remarked in mid-September that Trump would not be the nominee because he is “not really a Republican.”...."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/t ... ons-222789

I'd put the least amount of stock in any poll ratings by fivethirtyeight....

Making predictions about the relatively long term future like that and retrospectively evaluating polls through methodology that includes comparing what polls estimated shortly before elections to election results while taking the type of election into account (i.e., for example, national presidential elections are "easier" to estimate than presidential primary elections are) are two entirely different things. I've been looking for other pollster ratings to see if there are starkly different assessment results. But their methodology seems reasonable.

[CID1990]

To be honest, I'm looking forward to opposing a President because of gender, rather than because of race for the next few years.

Not agreeing with a guy because he's black is so 2008