Why Trump is good...

[BDKJMU]

Has he won 50% of any state yet?

I think he may have but his overall support levels is in the 30s. He has continued to benefit from the opposition being divided.

Again- your wrong. Trump is getting in the 40s tonight in 4 of 5 states in a 4 way race.

[Chizzang]

What's going on is serious.

You're always serious. Do you actually think you're going to persuade anyone here by saying the same thing 693 times?

I've said: Jill Stein
692 times...

[SDHornet]

What's going on is serious.

You're always serious. Do you actually think you're going to persuade anyone here by saying the same thing 693 times?

Why not? It works for Trump.

[Ibanez]

With Rubio out, it's time to see if Cruz can shift the tide. If Kasich drops out too, I'm very interested to see where a large portion of these voters will go. Or if they just stay home.

The problem is that Rubio was in when primaries were being held in States where Cruz was strongest. But it's possible that we can get to a situation in which Trump goes to the convention without a "first ballot" majority. And if that happens I think there is a good chance Trump will get spiked at that point. I can't even talk about all the details of why I think that. But let's just say I think the Republican Party, on a State by State basis, is selecting delegates who have to vote for Trump on the first ballot but will NOT vote for him once that first ballot is done.

And I think that's fine. I don't think it's a violation of the "will of the People" because I think the overwhelming majority of Republicans absolutely do NOT want Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee. The will of the Republican people, I think, is to avoid having Trump as the nominee.

A majority of republican voters cast their ballots for him last night. How can you keep saying a majority of Republicans won't vote for him?

[Skjellyfetti]

I think he may have but his overall support levels is in the 30s. He has continued to benefit from the opposition being divided.

Again- your wrong. Trump is getting in the 40s tonight in 4 of 5 states in a 4 way race.

And, that's still not a plurality.

Might be a little higher after last night. But, not by much.



http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/ma ... tion-2016/

[Ivytalk]

Again- your wrong. Trump is getting in the 40s tonight in 4 of 5 states in a 4 way race.

And, that's still not a plurality.

Might be a little higher after last night. But, not by much.



http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/ma ... tion-2016/

Hate to say it, but JellyBelly FTW!

[kalm]

John, breathe deeply and say "Ommmmmm."

Meditate. Namaste.

It just doesn't matter. It just doesn't matter! IT JUST DOESN'T MATTER! (Picture Bill Murray in Meatballs.)

Dalai Lama.

Tony Lama.

Fernando Llama.

What's going on is serious.

No John, it really isn't. The two parties hold a duopoly over the system. They manipulate the primaries and have safeguards against someone with new ideas actually doing well. If that person was an actual game changer and were to get into office the establishment and the money would beat back down. Some might argue that's really a good thing.

As much as I enjoy politics, I look at those crowds behind the various candidates at rallies, the people with "serious" looks on their faces, nodding their head emphatically at each awesome point made, shaking their head solemnly when their candidate gets in a smarmy shot (that he's already made and they've already heard 100's of times) at the opposition and think, who does that? What a bunch of tools. They actually believe they are making a difference. They are serious!!!!!

What's going on is hilariously entertaining but it is a total joke.

Enjoy the ride!

[Ivytalk]

Here's Professor Ivytalk's take on the issue:

http://www.collegehumor.com/video/70361 ... your-penis

[BDKJMU]

And, that's still not a plurality.

Might be a little higher after last night. But, not by much.



http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/ma ... tion-2016/

Hate to say it, but JellyBelly FTW!

Most of those contests were either uncontested or were over by Super Tues. How many of those contests had as many contestants as this one for Iowa through Super Tues? How many had 4 candidates still competing a month AFTER Super Tues? This comparison is about as worthless as titties on a bull.

[Ivytalk]

Hate to say it, but JellyBelly FTW!

Most of those contests were either uncontested or were over by Super Tues. How many of those contests had as many contestants as this one for Iowa through Super Tues? How many had 4 candidates still competing a month AFTER Super Tues? This comparison is about as worthless as titties on a bull.

So what's your point? Are you campaigning to be Trump's official graphmeister?

[BDKJMU]

Most of those contests were either uncontested or were over by Super Tues. How many of those contests had as many contestants as this one for Iowa through Super Tues? How many had 4 candidates still competing a month AFTER Super Tues? This comparison is about as worthless as titties on a bull.

So what's your point? Are you campaigning to be Trump's official graphmeister?

That this election is different than any we've ever seen before and comparisons to past elections are pretty worthless..

[89Hen]

The Jelly chart is a Jelly chart. Candidates with 75.4% and 72.8% shares lost the presidential election and candidates at 47.3% and 40.2% won.... so what's the chart really showing?

[JohnStOnge]

The Jelly chart is a Jelly chart. Candidates with 75.4% and 72.8% shares lost the presidential election and candidates at 47.3% and 40.2% won.... so what's the chart really showing?

Nevertheless, if you take the data on that chart and analyze it using the logistic regression page at http://statpages.info/logistic.html there is a "statistically significant" association such that as the percentage indicated in the popular vote percentage goes up the likelihood of ending up winning the Presidential election goes up.

[JohnStOnge]

A majority of republican voters cast their ballots for him last night.

That's not true. He did reach 40.5% last night. But that means 59.5% voted for other candidates. I think it likely that if Rubio had not been in the race Cruz would've beaten him in North Carolina and Missouri for sure and very possibly in Illinois as well. I think if Rubio had not been in the race the only State Trump would've won would've been Florida.

That's the kind of thing that is so frustrating about watching this. Rubio dropped out now. But while he was in there he allowed Trump to win a number of States that Cruz would've won had Rubio not been in.

[Ibanez]

The Jelly chart is a Jelly chart. Candidates with 75.4% and 72.8% shares lost the presidential election and candidates at 47.3% and 40.2% won.... so what's the chart really showing?

Nevertheless, if you take the data on that chart and analyze it using the logistic regression page at http://statpages.info/logistic.html there is a "statistically significant" association such that as the percentage indicated in the popular vote percentage goes up the likelihood of ending up winning the Presidential election goes up.

Admit it, you got a boner when you wrote, "logistic regression."

[93henfan]

[JohnStOnge]

Again- your wrong. Trump is getting in the 40s tonight in 4 of 5 states in a 4 way race.

See article on poll results at http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/201 ... one-on-one again. It came out just 8 days ago and it shows that if you'd narrowed it down to just Trump vs. Rubio Rubio had a 51% to 45% edge over Trump among Republican voters and if it came down to just Trump vs. Cruz Cruz had a 54% to 41% edge. Trump has CLEARLY benefited from the opposition to him being split among candidates.

Frankly, everybody who has been paying attention knows that. And the problem is that the field did not get winnowed before he got a big lead and, significantly, he got a big lead while the primaries in a lot of States that Cruz would've smoked him in if it had just been him vs. Trump one on one.

Also, if you've really been paying attention, you know that there are going to be a lot of people who traditionally have voted Republican who are going to refuse to vote for Trump in the general election if he is the nominee. The guy is an embarrassment and sensible people realize that.

[SDHornet]

The Jelly chart is a Jelly chart. Candidates with 75.4% and 72.8% shares lost the presidential election and candidates at 47.3% and 40.2% won.... so what's the chart really showing?

Nevertheless, if you take the data on that chart and analyze it using the logistic regression page at http://statpages.info/logistic.html there is a "statistically significant" association such that as the percentage indicated in the popular vote percentage goes up the likelihood of ending up winning the Presidential election goes up.

JFC just stop...

[SDHornet]

[JohnStOnge]

Admit it, you got a boner when you wrote, "logistic regression."

I might have but I didn't take a pill tonight.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

A majority of republican voters cast their ballots for him last night.

That's not true. He did reach 40.5% last night. But that means 59.5% voted for other candidates. I think it likely that if Rubio had not been in the race Cruz would've beaten him in North Carolina and Missouri for sure and very possibly in Illinois as well. I think if Rubio had not been in the race the only State Trump would've won would've been Florida.

That's the kind of thing that is so frustrating about watching this. Rubio dropped out now. But while he was in there he allowed Trump to win a number of States that Cruz would've won had Rubio not been in.

This dumb shit is akin to talking about your teams time of possession when they are clearly getting their ass kicked in the game by double digits.

[JohnStOnge]

JFC just stop...

Just pointing out that getting a lower percentage of the popular vote during the primary does mean something. And this Trump clown has the lowest percentage of anybody except George McGovern. George McGovern is the reason why the Democrats have "Super Delegates" now. They got a lemon nominee so they did something that would allow the "Establishment" to take action to reduce the risk of that happening. Trump is showing that maybe the Republicans ought to consider following suit.

[SDHornet]

JFC just stop...

Just pointing out that getting a lower percentage of the popular vote during the primary does mean something. And this Trump clown has the lowest percentage of anybody except George McGovern. George McGovern is the reason why the Democrats have "Super Delegates" now. They got a lemon nominee so they did something that would allow the "Establishment" to take action to reduce the risk of that happening. Trump is showing that maybe the Republicans ought to consider following suit.

They are primary results, who fucking cares!!!

[SDHornet]

I'll say this, if Trump is as good of a businessman as he claims to be then he should have no problem cutting a deal and getting the nomination. You know, it would be a good example of his flexibility on things.

[JohnStOnge]

This dumb **** is akin to talking about your teams time of possession when they are clearly getting their ass kicked in the game by double digits.

It's a totally different situation. Trump benefitting from divided opposition to him is simply an obvious reality. It is what it is.