Super Tuesday 2016

[Ibanez]

Republican Party: The majority of the Super Tuesday states use the proportional method to award the delegates. Delegates are rewarded to multiple candidates based on the results. A candidate may not win a state but still has an opportunity to win some of the state’s delegates. The Colorado, North Dakota and Wyoming caucuses use the unbounded method of awarding delegates.

Alabama 50
Alaska 28
Arkansas 40
Georgia 76
Massachusetts 42
Minnesota 38
Oklahoma 43
Tennessee 58
Texas 155
Vermont 16
Virginia 49

Total: 595 Delegates


Democratic Party: Aside from the Colorado caucus, all the primaries on the Democratic side use the proportional method to award the delegates.

Alabama 60
American Samoa 10
Arkansas 37
Colorado 79
Georgia 117
Massachusetts 116
Minnesota 93
Oklahoma 42
Tennessee 76
Texas 251
Vermont 26
Virginia 109


Total: 1015 Delegates

[Ibanez]

GOP: Delegates needed to win nomination: 1,237 (2,472 total)

Trump - 82
Cruz - 17
Rubio - 16
Kasich - 6
Carson -4

Democratic Party: Delegates needed to win nomination: 2,382 (4,051 Pledged/712 Super Delegates)

Clinton:90 Pledged/453 Super Delegates
Sanders: 65 Pledge/ 20 Super Delegates

[SDHornet]

GOP: Delegates needed to win nomination: 1,237 (2,472 total)

Trump - 82
Cruz - 17
Rubio - 16
Kasich - 6
Carson -4

Democratic Party: Delegates needed to win nomination: 2,382 (4,051 Pledged/712 Super Delegates)

Clinton:90 Pledged/453 Super Delegates
Sanders: 65 Pledge/ 20 Super Delegates

But but but they might switch to bernie.

hilldog will pretty much wrap up the donk nomination after tomorrow.

[ASUG8]

I think we can all safely say that Carson and Kasich will suspend their campaigns tomorrow. Even though it's a pretty tiny fraction of voters between the two, is that enough to push Cruz or Rubio into a bit more competitive race with the Donald post Super Tuesday and is there enough time to make up the delegate deficit?

I think we're going to be looking at a contested convention, but not sure who the second player will be just yet.

[Ibanez]

GOP: Delegates needed to win nomination: 1,237 (2,472 total)

Trump - 82
Cruz - 17
Rubio - 16
Kasich - 6
Carson -4

Democratic Party: Delegates needed to win nomination: 2,382 (4,051 Pledged/712 Super Delegates)

Clinton:90 Pledged/453 Super Delegates
Sanders: 65 Pledge/ 20 Super Delegates

But but but they might switch to bernie.

hilldog will pretty much wrap up the donk nomination after tomorrow.

They still could. With a difference of 35 pledged delegates, if for some reason Bernie is able to narrow that gap, or take the lead, we can see more of the super delegates switch.


Of course, if an indictment is handed down or something comes out of the Email Server investigation, those SDs may switch to Sanders.


I think HRC will come out on top and be the nominee, nothing sticks to her.

[BDKJMU]

I think we can all safely say that Carson and Kasich will suspend their campaigns tomorrow. Even though it's a pretty tiny fraction of voters between the two, is that enough to push Cruz or Rubio into a bit more competitive race with the Donald post Super Tuesday and is there enough time to make up the delegate deficit?

I think we're going to be looking at a contested convention, but not sure who the second player will be just yet.

Carson yes, Kasich no. Kascich I think will stick to his pledge of sticking through until after the March 15 Super Tuesday II, when 5 states are up for grabs, all pretty big: FL, OH, IL, NC & MO. Kasich has a shot to win his home state.
Quinnipiac in OH has it 31 Trump, 26 Kasich, 21 Cruz, 13 Rubio.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4077.html

[GannonFan]

I think we can all safely say that Carson and Kasich will suspend their campaigns tomorrow. Even though it's a pretty tiny fraction of voters between the two, is that enough to push Cruz or Rubio into a bit more competitive race with the Donald post Super Tuesday and is there enough time to make up the delegate deficit?

I think we're going to be looking at a contested convention, but not sure who the second player will be just yet.

Carson yes, Kasich no. Kascich I think will stick to his pledge of sticking through until after the March 15 Super Tuesday II, when 5 states are up for grabs, all pretty big: FL, OH, IL, NC & MO. Kasich has a shot to win his home state.
Quinnipiac in OH has it 31 Trump, 26 Kasich, 21 Cruz, 13 Rubio.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4077.html

Agreed, Kasich already said he's staying in it until Ohio.

[93henfan]

Carson will probably stay in until the critical Delaware vote is in in April. He's a pretty sharp guy like that.

[GannonFan]

But but but they might switch to bernie.

hilldog will pretty much wrap up the donk nomination after tomorrow.

They still could. With a difference of 35 pledged delegates, if for some reason Bernie is able to narrow that gap, or take the lead, we can see more of the super delegates switch.


Of course, if an indictment is handed down or something comes out of the Email Server investigation, those SDs may switch to Sanders.


I think HRC will come out on top and be the nominee, nothing sticks to her.

Bernie doesn't have a prayer. He's not going to win with Black voters nor with Big Union. The core of the Democratic base isn't going to vote for Bernie. He's no different than the far left, white liberals that came before him (Edwards, Dean, among others) and while that appeals to college age voters and the rich white elite of the party, it doesn't appeal to the bread and butter of the party like minority groups and the unions. Hillary's already been cast as Obama's third term, so whether that's true or not, you're not going to see the Democratic base vote against that. This was never a real race, just something to talk about while Hillary walks to the nomination.

[Grizalltheway]

Carson will probably stay in until the critical Delaware vote is in in April. He's a pretty sharp guy like that.

No way is he missing out on the Montana sweepstakes in June, either.

[Ibanez]

They still could. With a difference of 35 pledged delegates, if for some reason Bernie is able to narrow that gap, or take the lead, we can see more of the super delegates switch.


Of course, if an indictment is handed down or something comes out of the Email Server investigation, those SDs may switch to Sanders.


I think HRC will come out on top and be the nominee, nothing sticks to her.

Bernie doesn't have a prayer. He's not going to win with Black voters nor with Big Union. The core of the Democratic base isn't going to vote for Bernie. He's no different than the far left, white liberals that came before him (Edwards, Dean, among others) and while that appeals to college age voters and the rich white elite of the party, it doesn't appeal to the bread and butter of the party like minority groups and the unions. Hillary's already been cast as Obama's third term, so whether that's true or not, you're not going to see the Democratic base vote against that. This was never a real race, just something to talk about while Hillary walks to the nomination.

I thought that as well. Lately, i've been listening to a lot of people from the left and they're saying that Hillary is doing well with blacks and older women but once she gets out of the South, she might have a difficult time.

I'm sure she'll win the nomination, but it won't be a slam dunk like she hoped.

[GannonFan]

Bernie doesn't have a prayer. He's not going to win with Black voters nor with Big Union. The core of the Democratic base isn't going to vote for Bernie. He's no different than the far left, white liberals that came before him (Edwards, Dean, among others) and while that appeals to college age voters and the rich white elite of the party, it doesn't appeal to the bread and butter of the party like minority groups and the unions. Hillary's already been cast as Obama's third term, so whether that's true or not, you're not going to see the Democratic base vote against that. This was never a real race, just something to talk about while Hillary walks to the nomination.

I thought that as well. Lately, i've been listening to a lot of people from the left and they're saying that Hillary is doing well with blacks and older women but once she gets out of the South, she might have a difficult time.

I'm sure she'll win the nomination, but it won't be a slam dunk like she hoped.

Nah, the momentum from the South will be more than enough to make it an easy win for Hillary. Maybe it won't be a slam dunk but more of a layup, but regardless, she's the nominee. They'll string Bernie along enough so as not to piss off his base of supporters, but in the end, it would be shocking not to see Hillary in the White House.

[Ibanez]

I thought that as well. Lately, i've been listening to a lot of people from the left and they're saying that Hillary is doing well with blacks and older women but once she gets out of the South, she might have a difficult time.

I'm sure she'll win the nomination, but it won't be a slam dunk like she hoped.

Nah, the momentum from the South will be more than enough to make it an easy win for Hillary. Maybe it won't be a slam dunk but more of a layup, but regardless, she's the nominee. They'll string Bernie along enough so as not to piss off his base of supporters, but in the end, it would be shocking not to see Hillary in the White House.

Probably so.

From NPR (that liberal spin machine!) http://www.npr.org/2016/02/29/468505162 ... ally-badly

1. The Sanders win – 433-432

Wins in Colorado with 60 percent; Massachusetts (55 percent); Minnesota (70 percent); Oklahoma (60 percent); and Vermont (90 percent). Clinton would be held to 55 percent in delegate-rich Texas and Virginia; 57 percent in Arkansas, where her husband was governor and she was first lady; 60 percent in Alabama and Georgia, two states where half the Democratic electorate is black; 55 percent in Tennessee; and 58 percent in American Samoa. (Of course, with superdelegates factored in, Sanders is still swamped, but don't consider that for the sake of this analysis.)

2. The Clinton blowout – 508-357

Clinton wins big in Texas (60 percent); Alabama and Georgia (70 percent each, like in South Carolina); Arkansas and Tennessee (65 percent each); Virginia (60 percent); and takes Colorado and Massachusetts (with 55 percent each), where Sanders is hoping to do well; as well as Oklahoma (53 percent); and even gets the extra delegate out of American Samoa with 60 percent; Sanders would be held to 60 percent in Minnesota and 75 percent in his home state of Vermont.

[Ibanez]

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/29/11132442/s ... ay-sanders

A separate question to consider is what the results tell us about the rest of the primary. The 11 states voting on Tuesday have important demographic differences from the ones that lie ahead, and Sanders could be encouraged by tomorrow's outcome while still falling behind in both the delegate total and the number of states won.

For that to happen, Sanders needs to start taking states outside of the Northeast. Most observers we spoke to think that if Sanders can't win Minnesota and Colorado and at least put up a fight in Oklahoma and Tennessee on Tuesday, his campaign is probably toast.

But if Sanders defies current polling and pulls off a surprising sweep outside of Clinton's Southern stronghold, we'll likely be looking at a long and drawn-out race for the Democratic nomination

Here's an inexact way to divide the 11 states that will be voting in the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday into three basic groups:

Five Southern states — Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Arkansas, and Virginia — that are expected to be safely in Clinton's camp. A Sanders win in any of these primaries would represent a huge upset, but he can lose them — even by significant margins — and still have a viable path forward.

Four states that Sanders will probably need to win — Vermont, Minnesota, Colorado, and Massachusetts — to have a shot at the nomination. If Sanders can't sweep these primaries, he's unlikely to have a credible case for how he can mount a serious campaign. (A recent poll put Clinton up in Massachusetts, a result that would be disastrous for Sanders's chances.)

Two states — Oklahoma and Tennessee — that will test a major part of Sanders's coalition: Sanders has done well with the white working class in the early primaries, but it's unclear if that will extend beyond Iowa and New Hampshire. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver projects that Sanders probably needs to do well in places like Oklahoma and Tennessee to win the nomination, but they're not as likely to be in his corner as the four states above.

[kalm]

Mass, Colorado, and Minnesota are key for Sanders today.

[Ibanez]

I say Clinton picks up at least 450 delegates.

[AZGrizFan]

I voted.

[Ibanez]

I voted.

+1 for The Donald?

[Ivytalk]

Carson will probably stay in until the critical Delaware vote is in in April. He's a pretty sharp guy like that.

So was Steve Forbes.

[AZGrizFan]

I voted.

+1 for The Donald?

I'll never tell.

[Ibanez]

+1 for The Donald?

I'll never tell.

[Ibanez]

Trump will probably win every state, other than Texas. He has a small lead in some states like Arkansas. Trump will win big tonight.

Carson should...SHOULD.. drop out tonight/tomorrow, as should Kasich. But we know Kasich won't.

Rubio will be on the ropes. He's hoping for a strong showing in Florida, but by the time that happens almost 60% of the delegates will be awarded and he won't have a chance in hell ( I don't see him having a chance barring an impressive series of victories tonight)

[93henfan]

Trump will probably win every state, other than Texas. He has a small lead in some states like Arkansas. Trump will win big tonight.

Carson should...SHOULD.. drop out tonight/tomorrow, as should Kasich. But we know Kasich won't.

Rubio will be on the ropes. He's hoping for a strong showing in Florida, but by the time that happens almost 60% of the delegates will be awarded and he won't have a chance in hell ( I don't see him having a chance barring an impressive series of victories tonight)

Rubio, Cruz, Sanders all are sticking around waiting for their respective frontrunner to step on a landmine, which has a real chance of happening.

[kalm]

Trump will probably win every state, other than Texas. He has a small lead in some states like Arkansas. Trump will win big tonight.

Carson should...SHOULD.. drop out tonight/tomorrow, as should Kasich. But we know Kasich won't.

Rubio will be on the ropes. He's hoping for a strong showing in Florida, but by the time that happens almost 60% of the delegates will be awarded and he won't have a chance in hell ( I don't see him having a chance barring an impressive series of victories tonight)

He also runs the risk of losing Florida which would be an anchor for future runs.

[Ibanez]

Trump will probably win every state, other than Texas. He has a small lead in some states like Arkansas. Trump will win big tonight.

Carson should...SHOULD.. drop out tonight/tomorrow, as should Kasich. But we know Kasich won't.

Rubio will be on the ropes. He's hoping for a strong showing in Florida, but by the time that happens almost 60% of the delegates will be awarded and he won't have a chance in hell ( I don't see him having a chance barring an impressive series of victories tonight)

Rubio, Cruz, Sanders all are sticking around waiting for their respective frontrunner to step on a landmine, which has a real chance of happening.

I see Clinton having a grenade lobbed at her before anything brings down Trump. That's just my opinion.

Even if something comes out against Trump, it'd have to pretty damning. He isn't exactly an unknown, and like Clinton, it seems his supporters don't care.

Does anyone think that 2016 will give us brokered or contested conventions? How about an independent run from a newbie or a former candidate (Sanders)?