2009 Sporting News' Top 25 - OOC Schedule

[weberwildcat]

FBS, Division II

1. Richmond - Duke, VMI, Georgetown

2. Appalachian State - East Carolina, McNeese St, NC Central

3. Villanova - Temple, Lehigh, Penn

4. UNI - Iowa, South Dakota, St. Francis

5. Montana - Western State, UC-Davis, Cal Poly)

6. Southern Illinois - Marshall, SW Baptist, Southeast Missouri State

7. Weber State - Wyoming, Colorado State, Cal Poly

8. New Hampshire - Ball State, St. Francis, Dartmouth

9. Elon - Wake Forest, Davidson, Presbyterian

10. JMU - Maryland, VMI, Liberty


Question: How often do FCS beat FBS each year? A few?

Looks like JMU's gotta tough schedule overall.

[DukeJack]

Question: How often do FCS beat FBS each year? A few?

Looks like JMU's gotta tough schedule overall.

Well, off the top of my head, UNH beat Army, and I think FCS teams were something like 4-80 overall. Yes, as a rule, very few teams do it.

I'm curious as to why you think JMU has a tough schedule. I'm not including conference games here, so is it our OOC? Mickey does not play to win IA games, that will be a loss. VMI is our regular whipping boy and haven't posed any kind of threat to us in my memory. Liberty? They lost their top three offensive players from last year and should be much weaker this year.

If you're basing that on our 11-week no-bye approach, well then, yes, I agree. But looking at our OOC, I'm not too worried about it. We are likely to be 21 heading into conference play, and after that, who knows.

[weberwildcat]

Question: How often do FCS beat FBS each year? A few?

Looks like JMU's gotta tough schedule overall.

Well, off the top of my head, UNH beat Army, and I think FCS teams were something like 4-80 overall. Yes, as a rule, very few teams do it.

I'm curious as to why you think JMU has a tough schedule. I'm not including conference games here, so is it our OOC? Mickey does not play to win IA games, that will be a loss. VMI is our regular whipping boy and haven't posed any kind of threat to us in my memory. Liberty? They lost their top three offensive players from last year and should be much weaker this year.

If you're basing that on our 11-week no-bye approach, well then, yes, I agree. But looking at our OOC, I'm not too worried about it. We are likely to be 21 heading into conference play, and after that, who knows.

Sorry for the confusion, I was looking over your entire '09 schedule, looks very tough as a whole.

As for the top 10's OOC games, will any pull an upset? I'm not too excited about having 2 FBS on my team's schedule. 1 would be nice but not 2 on an 11 game schedule. Though better than last yr's 2 FBS and a D2 and an NAIA.

[DukeJack]

Sorry for the confusion, I was looking over your entire '09 schedule, looks very tough as a whole.

Well, Maryland's a loss and VMI and Liberty are the closest to a slam-dunk OOC we've had in years. In conference, eh. The CAA South will be tough again this year, depending on how well Devlin settles and if Delaware can get their OL together. W&M , well, all I ever hear from their fans is to wait and see how good their defense is gonna be this year. 2004 was the worst thing to ever happen to their expectations. UMass looks to be a shell of their former selves, unfortunately. No, I was much more worried last year than I am this year. The only thing that gives me pause is that bye week.

As for the top 10's OOC games, will any pull an upset?

My thoughts:

1. Richmond did beat Duke a couple years ago, but with Cutliffe getting in a couple classes of his guys now, plus Richmond losing both DEs, I gotta say this one goes to the Blue Devils.

2. App could win depending on how seriously Moore wants to take it. They eased off NC State (?) after playing them close for the first half, because they were playing us the next week in 06. This is a similar setup again this year with them playing McNeese, so it will depend on how healthy Moore wants his team to be.

3. Villanova has the greatest chance to win one of these games. They return 15 starters and it's Temple. Seriously, Temple.

4. UNI, well, Iowa has been down for a few seasons now but I can't see them losing to the Panthers. Probably a close first half, but that whole scholarship disparity and depth rears its ugly head to allow the Hawkeyes to pull one out.

6. SIU gets the second FCS vs. MAC game, but with Marshall returning 17 starters, they take this one close.

7. Weber State should have a very good shot at Wyoming, but I can't see you guys taking two in one year. Sorry, but Colorado State should win.

8. If there's one team that beats FBS teams on a regular basis, it's UNH. Even though Ball State's QB got drafted, their defense looked good enough last year to make me wonder if this is the year the streak snaps.

9. Elon has a good rising program in the FCS, but it's not good enough for a rising program in the ACC

10. You're kidding, right?

I'm not too excited about having 2 FBS on my team's schedule. 1 would be nice but not 2 on an 11 game schedule. Though better than last yr's 2 FBS and a D2 and an NAIA.

Yeah, I agree. It's one thing to do it for the competition and everything that comes with walking your team out in front of 60,000 screaming fans, but it's another when it's just a cash grab. Although, with this economy, I understand why more schools (NAU) are doing it. It just puts the team at such a competitive disadvantage, knowing that it is extremely likely to be a loss, and makes conference play that much more intense. One slip-up could the difference between playing Thanksgiving weekend and watching.

[93henfan]

Can't say I agree with Richmond at #1. Duke, VMI, and Georgetown aren't exactly juggernauts. I'd have App at #1 and Weber a bit higher as well.

And really, with powerhouses like West Chester and DelState, there's no reason the Hens shouldn't be top 5.

[native]

Wildcat, I interpreted your post a little differently than did DukeJack.

Looking at the out of conference schedules for the Sporting News Top 10 teams, here are the OOC schedules I think are the toughest:

1. Weber State: Two FBS opponents and Cal Poly, by far the toughest OOC schedule in the FCS, let alone the Top 10.
2. JMU: DukeJack may consider VMI and Liberty to be cakewalks, but not compared to the FCS cupcakes scheduled by most of the rest of the Top 10. When you add in Maryland, JMU's OOC schedule is still a great deal tougher than the others.
3. Villanova
4. App State
5. Elon
6. Richmond
7. UNH
8. UNI
9. UM
10. SIU

[UAalum72]

FBS, Division II

Question: How often do FCS beat FBS each year? A few?

Looks like JMU's gotta tough schedule overall.

A guy on AGS at the beginning of last year had this analysis of FCS playoff teams vs. FBS

"Overall during the past 10 seasons (1998-2007) it was 38-91; or about 1 in 3.4 games. The average score is 20-34 (I-AA/FCS score first).

But I think breaking it down into games vs. BCS league opponents and games vs. non BCS league opponents is informative.

Against BCS league opponents it's 10-56; or about 1 in 5.6 games. The average score is 16-37.

Against non BCS league I-A/FCS opponents it's 28-35; or about 1 in 2.3 games. The average score is 24-30.

Of course almost all of the games we're talking about were played at I-A/FBS home fields."

Overall FCS vs. FBS is about 1 of 8.