CAA Week 12 Standings & Prediction Thread

[BDKJMU]

Standings:
1. W&M (8-2/6-1) Lock for playoffs, must win @ UR for seed.
--- JMU (8-2/5-2) Lock for playoffs. Need to beat VU and hope for 1-2 upsets to get #8 seed.
--- UR (7-3/5-2) Upset W&M to be lock for playoffs. Lose and hope pending what happens elsewhere in CAA & nationally.
----VU (6-4/5-2) Must pull upset @ JMU to be lock for playoffs. Lose and are done.
5. UNH (6-4/4-3) Must beat Maine to be likely in playoffs.
--- TU (6-4/4-3) Must beat URI and hope to make playoffs.
Eliminated from playoff contention:
7. EU (4-6/3-4)
-- UM (3-7/3-4)
9. SBU (4-5/2-5) (Only 10 games)
-- AU (3-7/2-5)
-- UD (3-7/2-5)
12. URI (1-9/1-6)

*Lines 5dimes as of Tues evening
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting ... -football/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Forecast Accuweather as of Tuesday night for the 6 game locations calling for on Saturday highs from between 47 in Durham to 56 in Richmond & Elon, everywhere partially sunny to sunny, nowhere calling for precip. Nothing about winds like last week. So looks like weather won’t be a factor..

-VU @ JMU (noon) (JMU -6)

-W&M @ UR (noon, CSN-MA, CSN-PHL, SNY, CSN-CA) (W&M -4) in the 125 meeting of the Capitol Cup, the South's Oldest Rivalry.

-UD @ Elon (noon ) (Elon -3)

-Maine @ UNH (1 PM) (UNH -10) in the "Battle for the Bryce Cowell Musket"

-Albany @ SBU (1 PM) (SBU -7.5)

-URI @ TU (2 PM) (TU -19)

[BDKJMU]

HUGE weekend in the CAA
-4 of the 6 games have playoff implications, all but are UD/Elon & Albany/SBU..
-2 games have HUGE playoff implications in terms of getting in and seeds with the Top 4 teams all playing each other: W&M @ UR & VU @ JMU

Now if UR upsets W&M & VU upsets JMU, then VU would be in a 3 way tie with W&M & UR, all at 6-2 in the CAA & VU would get the CAA AQ. They would have all round robbined. W&M beat VU, VU beat UR, and UR would have beaten W&M. The tiebreaker would then be common opponent (JMU the only one for all 3, all 3 would be 1-0). Then would come down to Sagarin "ELO_CHESS" rating. This explains it:
http://www.dailypress.com/sports/dp-eit ... -post.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NoBowls has 5 CAA teams in, no 7-4 left out. After W&M & JMU, of the 4 other teams with a shot, IF it ends up in the unlikely event that ALL are 7-4, then yeah there wouldn’t be 6 CAA getting in unless a # of 6 Div I win from the other 6 full scholly participating AQ conferences are upset. In the unlikely event that there are four 7-4 CAA here’s what I think the pecking order would be:

-VU would be 7-4/6-2 & in 2nd place behind W&M with back to back wins over UR and JMU. A virtual lock.

-UNH: 7-4/5-3 if beat Maine at home. Lost to W&M, beat UR, so either 0-1 or 1-1 vs playoff teams.
Didn’t play JMU, VU, or TU. So of the top 6 CAA teams, of the other 5, missed 3 of them. Bad losses @ UD by 14 and @ SBU by 25. Would end the season on a 4 game winning streak, and that combined with their 11 year straight playoff streak & last 2 straight seasons in the semis would rightly or wrongly, put them ahead of TU in the committee’s eyes I think.

-TU: 7-4/5-3 if beat URI at home. Would be anywhere from 0-2 to 2-2 vs playoff teams:
-JMU lost to by 3 TDs, W&M lost by 2 TDs.
-TU beat a possible playoff VU in Oct by 7
-TU beat a possible NEC AQ STFU by 15 back in Sept.
If TU at 7-4/5-3 doesn’t get in a 24 team field Ambrose will probably blow a gasket like he did in 12’ after not getting in a 20 team field at 7-4/6-2 with 2 I-A losses.

-UR: 7-4/5-3 if lose to W&M at home. Would be 1-2 or 1-3 vs playoff teams (won @ JMU by 10, lost @ UNH by 5, lost @ VU by 1). Would have ended the season on a 3 game losing streak.

Here it is in a nutshell for the playoffs for the CAA:
-W&M 8-2/6-1 mortal lock, needs to win for a seed.
-JMU 8-2/5-2 mortal lock, needs to win and hope for a couple of upsets nationally for a seed.
-UR 7-3/5-2 upset W&M are mortal lock. Lose and hope to get in.
-VU 6-4/5-2 upset JMU and are mortal lock either with the AQ, or sole possession of 2nd place. Lose and are done.
-UNH 6-4/4-3 beat Maine and likely in, lose and are done.
-TU 6-4/4-3 beat URI and hope to get in, lose and are done.

[BDKJMU]

VU @ JMU 31-28

UD @ Elon 13-10
If UD hasn’t mailed it in then I think they grind out a win. On the other hand they may have shot their wad vs JMU last week, and if they have mailed it in then Elon could roll them by double digits..

URI @ TU 31-13

W&M @ UR 31-27

Maine @ UNH 24-14
McDonnell is 12-1 vs Cosgrove..

Albany @ SBU 13-10

[bluehenbillk]

All the favorites:

Elon
W&M
JMU
UNH
SBU
TU

[89Hen]

JMU 31 - villanova 20
W&M 27 - Richmond 20
Elon 47 - Delaware 0
UNH 31 - Maine 19
Stony 23 - Albany 13
Towson 34 - URI 13

[BDKJMU]

JMU 31 - villanova 20
W&M 27 - Richmond 20
Elon 47 - Delaware 0
UNH 31 - Maine 19
Stony 23 - Albany 13
Towson 34 - URI 13

[89Hen]

JMU 31 - villanova 20
W&M 27 - Richmond 20
Elon 47 - Delaware 0
UNH 31 - Maine 19
Stony 23 - Albany 13
Towson 34 - URI 13

I think I've been wrong 9 of 10 weeks on Elon so...

[LeadBolt]

W&M. Just. Needs. To. Take. Care. Of. Business.

[BDKJMU]

In the unlikely event that there are four 7-4 CAA here’s what I think the pecking order would be:

-VU would be 7-4/6-2 & in 2nd place behind W&M with back to back wins over UR and JMU. A virtual lock.

-UNH: 7-4/5-3 if beat Maine at home. Lost to W&M, beat UR, so either 0-1 or 1-1 vs playoff teams.
Didn’t play JMU, VU, or TU. So of the top 6 CAA teams, of the other 5, missed 3 of them. Bad losses @ UD by 14 and @ SBU by 25. Would end the season on a 4 game winning streak, and that combined with their 11 year straight playoff streak & last 2 straight seasons in the semis would rightly or wrongly, put them ahead of TU in the committee’s eyes I think.

-TU: 7-4/5-3 if beat URI at home. Would be anywhere from 0-2 to 2-2 vs playoff teams:
-JMU lost to by 3 TDs, W&M lost by 2 TDs.
-TU beat a possible playoff VU in Oct by 7
-TU beat a possible NEC AQ STFU by 15 back in Sept.
If TU at 7-4/5-3 doesn’t get in a 24 team field Ambrose will probably blow a gasket like he did in 12’ after not getting in a 20 team field at 7-4/6-2 with 2 I-A losses.

-UR: 7-4/5-3 if lose to W&M at home. Would be 1-2 or 1-3 vs playoff teams (won @ JMU by 10, lost @ UNH by 5, lost @ VU by 1). Would have ended the season on a 3 game losing streak.

Yep. UR won & VU lost which meant the finals CAA playoff pecking order (not CAA standings per se) was
JMU (9-2/6-2)
UR (8-3/6-2)
W&M (8-3/6-2)
UNH (7-4/5-3) (one of last 4 teams in)
TU (7-4/5-3) (one of last 2 teams out)

Since VU lost to JMU and StFU lost to Duquesne TU ended up being 0-2 vs CAA playoffs losing handily to JMU & W&M & didn't play UR & UNH + had the bad loss to Elon. According to the selection committee were one of the last 2 teams left out along with 7-4 ND...

[BDKJMU]

VU @ JMU 31-28

UD @ Elon 13-10
If UD hasn’t mailed it in then I think they grind out a win. On the other hand they may have shot their wad vs JMU last week, and if they have mailed it in then Elon could roll them by double digits..

URI @ TU 31-13

W&M @ UR 31-27

Maine @ UNH 24-14
McDonnell is 12-1 vs Cosgrove..

Albany @ SBU 13-10

JMU 38, VU 29.. (had 34-27 on JMU board)..

UD 14, Elon 10. 1 point off!

TU 38, URI 21

UNH 22, Maine 8

UR 20, W&M 9..

SBU 20, Albany 2

[89Hen]

JMU 31 - villanova 20 (38-29)
W&M 27 - Richmond 20 (9-20)
Elon 47 - Delaware 0 (10-14) it worked
UNH 31 - Maine 19 (22-6)
Stony 23 - Albany 13 (20-2)
Towson 34 - URI 13 (38-21)