Big Sky Predictions 11-14

[SuperHornet]

Here's what I'm looking at. We have five teams under consideration (SUU, PSU, NAU, UM, EWU). All others are out of it. I'll go in inverse order of record.

EWU - (6-4/5-2 BSC) Losses to OR, UNI, NAU, and UM. No signature wins. Significant late-season downturn. Must win vs. PSU. Complete shock here.

UM - (6-4/5-2 BSC) Losses to CP and Liberty. Signature win vs. defending D-I champ NDSU. Must win vs. MSU AND get national help.

NAU - (7-3, 5-2 BSC) Losses to AZ, UM, and UCD. A D-II win, so only 6 D-I wins currently. Must win vs. SUU AND get national help. If history is any indicator, if both win, UM will get the help, and NAU will be left out.

PSU - (8-2, 5-2 BSC) Losses to UND and UNC. Signature win vs. Wazzu. FCS credit will counterbalance the bad UNC loss. The UND loss isn't all that bad. PSU is probable even with a loss to EWU, and still a threat to claim a mid-level seed if they win.

SUU - (7-3, 6-4 BSC) Losses to US (close), SDSU, and PSU (close). Win vs. D-II. Only 6 D-I wins. Must beat NAU to get in.

Individually, that's it. The only one I would think is a no-brainer is PSU. The D-II games look bad, particularly for those on the bubble. They'd have done better scheduling a D-II power or a FBS flunkie (yes, I know that there aren't many of those in our area, likely only SJSU). I see one definite, and no more than three. If it's only one, it's PSU. The next most likely are EWU and NAU, though SUU is definitely in the hunt. UM is most likely done.

[kalm]

Here's what I'm looking at. We have five teams under consideration (SUU, PSU, NAU, UM, EWU). All others are out of it. I'll go in inverse order of record.

EWU - (6-4/5-2 BSC) Losses to OR, UNI, NAU, and UM. No signature wins. Significant late-season downturn. Must win vs. PSU. Complete shock here.

UM - (6-4/5-2 BSC) Losses to CP and Liberty. Signature win vs. defending D-I champ NDSU. Must win vs. MSU AND get national help.

NAU - (7-3, 5-2 BSC) Losses to AZ, UM, and UCD. A D-II win, so only 6 D-I wins currently. Must win vs. SUU AND get national help. If history is any indicator, if both win, UM will get the help, and NAU will be left out.

PSU - (8-2, 5-2 BSC) Losses to UND and UNC. Signature win vs. Wazzu. FCS credit will counterbalance the bad UNC loss. The UND loss isn't all that bad. PSU is probable even with a loss to EWU, and still a threat to claim a mid-level seed if they win.

SUU - (7-3, 6-4 BSC) Losses to US (close), SDSU, and PSU (close). Win vs. D-II. Only 6 D-I wins. Must beat NAU to get in.

Individually, that's it. The only one I would think is a no-brainer is PSU. The D-II games look bad, particularly for those on the bubble. They'd have done better scheduling a D-II power or a FBS flunkie (yes, I know that there aren't many of those in our area, likely only SJSU). I see one definite, and no more than three. If it's only one, it's PSU. The next most likely are EWU and NAU, though SUU is definitely in the hunt. UM is most likely done.

A 7-4 UND would have a better resume than EWU, NAU, or SUU at 7-4.

In: PSU

Win and in: UM, UND, SUU, NAU

Likely win and in: EWU