Whatever you take from that "both sides" discussion, one thing is clear: What has happened over the past 16 years is not consistent with what the climate models projected.Some climate scientists, such as Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, last week dismissed the significance of the plateau, saying that 15 or 16 years is too short a period from which to draw conclusions.
Others disagreed. Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’.
Even Prof Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ – factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun. However, he said he was still convinced that the current decade would end up significantly warmer than the previous two.
I think a lot of people talk about scenarios projected by climate models as though there is reason to think there should be a lot of certainty associated with them. There isn't. They are not validated models nor can they ever BE validated models. That is why the IPCC Physical Science Basis report uses the term "projection" rather than "prediction" (see http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_dat ... /ch10.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;). It's a bit of semantics to keep them from violating the rules by making "predictions" with unvalidated models.
Kind of like they pay lip service to the rule about having to have experiments to infer cause and effect by saying that unequivocal "attribution"of climate change to particular causes (such as human activity) would require experiments that are not possible. That's where they spend a few words saying they can't really say what's causing whatever they talk about then launch into tens of thousands of words used essentially to do what they just said they can't do.
