Ivytalk wrote:CID1990 wrote:
We are natural allies given that our interests intersect in many more ways than they diverge.
China is a large part of that, and the fact that we are not economic competitors is another. In terms of the trajectory of the 20th century, the 100 years since the fall of the Romanov is not all that significant. There was a LOT of pro-American sentiment in Russia prior to 1917' but remember that there was also a lot of pro-American sentiment in Russia in the 1980s. American made blue jeans were the hottest item in Moscow, American pop culture was informing Russian pop culture, etc. When the wall came down we had the easiest foreign relations opportunity in the history of our country and we blew it.
When the Soviet Union broke apart, we immediately began courting every single former Soviet Republic, except one- Russia. We took the Soviet Union down in an economic sense, and then while Muscovites were standing in bread lines, we were courting the entirety of Eastern Europe for NATO membership, and offering nothing to Russia in terms of assistance in governance or economics. Russia was literally an anarchic state without the bomb throwers, and that is the fastest route to oligarchy.
Russia is a "natural" ally in terms of the fact that our "enmity" was solely created by our own actions. If we to had not expanded NATO, it could be argued that there would be no Vladimir Putin. Sergey Lavrov is the standard bearer of a populist anti-American movement among Russians young and old who harbor a lot of resentment towards America not because of our relations from 1920-1990, but because of our actions since 1990. Vladimir Putin is just the manifestation of the populist movement in Russia. Boris Yeltsin wasn't a Cold War apparatchik and his successors wouldn't have been, either had WE not been acting like the Cold War was still in full swing.
There are a million and one reasons why will will never have many friends in the Levant or in China. There is literally no rational reason for our enmity with Russia. Keep sanctions in place for now (as a lever for future nuclear disarmament without cheating), and simultaneously ramp down NATO's presence and influence in Eastern Europe. Take advantage of Russia's highly educated tech sector to locate a few high end businesses there in return for economic reforms (weakening the oligarchs)- and we'll have our natural ally in 15 years. They will also leave Ukraine alone with little to no prodding. All we need is a few good faith efforts.
Don't go all soft on us because Russians are hard people, Ivy. There are plenty of abhorrent people in the world who we prop up and the Russians are nowhere near as bad.
I don't know what you mean by "going all soft" on this subject, CID. I disagree with several points that you make, but I'll keep it respectful. Yeltsin may have been a corrupt buffoon, but he was a long-time CCCP member and Order of Lenin winner who named -- you guessed it -- Putin as his desired successor. While several former Warsaw Pact countries have joined NATO, not a single former Soviet republic has come on board, except the Baltic States -- where Russians are ethnic minorities. Most of those former republics are thugocracies themselves, still within the Russian geopolitical orbit. While you cite pop culture and blue jeans as optimistic signs for a future rapprochement with Russia, you don't address my point (made in another post) about a fundamental cultural difference: the historical weakness of private property rights in Russia. Centuries of serfdom are difficult to overcome. Richard Pipes cited that weakness as one factor in the Bolsheviks' rise to power, and it has hampered Russian economic development to this day. Outside of the energy sector, where Russia benefits from an abundance of natural resources, I can't think of a single business segment where Russia has prospered since 1990. Given the shrinking Russian population and its limited purchasing power, why would US manufacturing (or tech, for that matter) companies flock to relocate there?
In sum, I'm fundamentally more skeptical about long-term Russia-US relations than you are. I'm also not sanguine about teaming up with Russia against China, although there have been certain tensions between Russia and China in the energy and weapons sectors. Recall the 2001 "friendship treaty" between Russia and China, raised by China just last year in the escalating tensions about the South China Sea. I will agree with you and Cluck that meddling in the affairs of sovereign nations should be avoided where possible. Peace, out.
Ivy, it is very strange that you think that relocating American businesses to Russia, and Russian private property rights, as the important...errr...cultural...factors in improving relations.
When did Poland have fantastic private property rights? Saudi Arabia? Heck, the Americas were settled, not so long ago, by the edicts from European royalty, who doled out property to their politically connected friends (does the name William Penn mean anything to you)? And speaking of property rights, America isn't that far removed from slavery.
Yes, we've come a long way...but let's not pretend we've been angels on that path.
My mother traveled to Russia for three weeks and found the people there very friendly. Now, her group was in tourist areas, but she was surprised by their knowledge of history and the breadth of their conversations. It was much more open than she expected it to be. Their connection to Europe is real. Sure, they were taken on a different path by their leaders...but they are little different from us. Unlike Muslins, or folks from other cultures, if you took a poll, you would not have most Russians saying people should die or burn at the stake because they insult Mohammed/Jesus/or women's rights.
The real problem is that the entrenched Russia politcal/business elite are a bit more ruthless than ours. But, to be fair, they watch the West try to steal their markets and overthrow, sometimes by violence, their natural allies. Yes, despite your reluctance to publicly acknowledge what we, as a government, and as individuals, do kill people to get our way. And not on a small scale. All in the name of democrac...wait...I still can't finish writing something like that without laughing.
We threaten, maim, murder, and torture people to get our way. We have done those things, and we still do. The Banana Republics weren't named for their generous public food distribution drives for their countries' people. We actively support, and maintain, governments that make Russia look like choir boys.
So don't toss out some idea that we could not get along with the Russians when we are in bed with many different cultures and despots around the world. The only reason we don't have better relations with Russia is that our business leaders don't like the fact that the Russian leadership won't let us walk all over them...they like their control. And there is the little profitability matter of propping up the idea that there is a big, bad, enemy out there.
The Russian people, however, if given the chance, would warm up to us rather quickly.
