So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by kalm »

JohnStOnge wrote:
He deserves a 3rd term. :coffee:

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I've consistently posted over the years that I think people ascribe too much of a cause and effect relationship between what happens with the economy and who the President is at the time. I also posted, after Obama was elected and before he took office, that he was in good shape because people do tend to think there's a relationship and he was taking over at or near the bottom of an economic oscillation. It was pretty much guaranteed that things had to get better in terms of economic statistics regardless of who the President was. Also he was pretty much guaranteed to be somewhat insulated from being perceived as "at fault."

I've always maintained that people should think about the long term effects of who is in power and what they're doing to the system. What is the long term direction in which that person or party wants to point? You look at someone like Obama, who has stated that he doesn't think the Warren Court went far enough because it didn't establish a doctrine of "positive rights" and you don't want him that that office doing, among other things, nominating Supreme Court Justices. Or at least you shouldn't.
See Reagan. :nod:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by houndawg »

JohnStOnge wrote:
He deserves a 3rd term. :coffee:

Jan 2009 Today

7,949 The DOW 16,459

7.8% Unemployment 6.7%

-5.4% GDP Growth 4.1%

9.8% Deficit GDP 3.3%

37.7 Consumer Confidence 78.1
I've consistently posted over the years that I think people ascribe too much of a cause and effect relationship between what happens with the economy and who the President is at the time. I also posted, after Obama was elected and before he took office, that he was in good shape because people do tend to think there's a relationship and he was taking over at or near the bottom of an economic oscillation. It was pretty much guaranteed that things had to get better in terms of economic statistics regardless of who the President was. Also he was pretty much guaranteed to be somewhat insulated from being perceived as "at fault."

I've always maintained that people should think about the long term effects of who is in power and what they're doing to the system. What is the long term direction in which that person or party wants to point? You look at someone like Obama, who has stated that he doesn't think the Warren Court went far enough because it didn't establish a doctrine of "positive rights" and you don't want him that that office doing, among other things, nominating Supreme Court Justices. Or at least you shouldn't.
It will take decades to recover from the miserable debacle of the Bush admin. :ohno:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by JohnStOnge »

See Reagan.
I like the direction Reagan wanted to take. I do think he fell short in certain areas. Sometimes his fault. Sometimes not.

Like he nominated Robert Bork for the Supreme Court. Had Bork gotten on the court things would be far different...and better...than they are now in many areas. The reason is that after Bork's nomination failed he nominated Sandra Day O'Conner and she was a complete disaster. I think a number of very critical Supreme Court decisions would've gone the other way had Bork gotten on the Court.

I think Reagan at least slowed the trend toward more and more controlling central government to some extent for some time. I think he did want to dramatically chop back the Federal government. I think if he could've waved a wand and had what he wanted we wouldn't have the Social Security system right now and a lot of other cherished benefits programs would be gone as well. I think that on balance it's better from my standpoint than it would've been if Carter and/or Mondale had been in office during those years.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by houndawg »

JohnStOnge wrote:
See Reagan.
I like the direction Reagan wanted to take. I do think he fell short in certain areas. Sometimes his fault. Sometimes not.

Like he nominated Robert Bork for the Supreme Court. Had Bork gotten on the court things would be far different...and better...than they are now in many areas. The reason is that after Bork's nomination failed he nominated Sandra Day O'Conner and she was a complete disaster. I think a number of very critical Supreme Court decisions would've gone the other way had Bork gotten on the Court.

I think Reagan at least slowed the trend toward more and more controlling central government to some extent for some time. I think he did want to dramatically chop back the Federal government. I think if he could've waved a wand and had what he wanted we wouldn't have the Social Security system right now and a lot of other cherished benefits programs would be gone as well. I think that on balance it's better from my standpoint than it would've been if Carter and/or Mondale had been in office during those years.
Reagan spent like a drunken sailor. He wouldn't get past the primary today.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by 93henfan »

houndawg wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I like the direction Reagan wanted to take. I do think he fell short in certain areas. Sometimes his fault. Sometimes not.

Like he nominated Robert Bork for the Supreme Court. Had Bork gotten on the court things would be far different...and better...than they are now in many areas. The reason is that after Bork's nomination failed he nominated Sandra Day O'Conner and she was a complete disaster. I think a number of very critical Supreme Court decisions would've gone the other way had Bork gotten on the Court.

I think Reagan at least slowed the trend toward more and more controlling central government to some extent for some time. I think he did want to dramatically chop back the Federal government. I think if he could've waved a wand and had what he wanted we wouldn't have the Social Security system right now and a lot of other cherished benefits programs would be gone as well. I think that on balance it's better from my standpoint than it would've been if Carter and/or Mondale had been in office during those years.
Reagan spent like a drunken sailor. He wouldn't get past the primary today.
:nod:

Very telling here. Reagan and Dubya both kickstarted massive federal spending sprees. So did FDR, but we sort of had a World War and such:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by houndawg »

93henfan wrote:
houndawg wrote:
Reagan spent like a drunken sailor. He wouldn't get past the primary today.
:nod:

Very telling here. Reagan and Dubya both kickstarted massive federal spending sprees. So did FDR, but we sort of had a World War and such:
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'93 be layin' the wood to the conksuckers. :oops:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by Vidav »

SuperHornet wrote:
93henfan wrote:Forgive me for having a photographic memory, but...

Gas prices went from around 60 cents to over a dollar/gal under Carter. They pretty much stayed around a dollar, give or take 20 cents, through Reagan, Bush the Elder, and Clinton. Toward the end of Clinton's second term, gas dipped below a dollar. Under Bush it skyrocketed over $3/gal (global demand and the rise of China and India) and then dipped just under $2/gal again at the end of Bush the Younger's second term due to a decrease in worldwide demand due to a shitty global economy. Now we're back in the low $3's again.

So gas is basically triple what it cost in 1980. Aren't most things?
Low $3s, my foot. Our best price in town just went back back over $3.40.
mrklean wrote:The last time Regular unleaded Gas hit 4.00/ Gal. Bush was in Office. In fact, Look at Gas prices before and after Katrina.
Hogwash. We've hit $4 SEVERAL times under Obama.
It's around $3.14 here and that is only recently. Last week was $3.04. I can't remember the last time it was over $4. You should move somewhere better.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by houndawg »

Vidav wrote:
SuperHornet wrote:
Low $3s, my foot. Our best price in town just went back back over $3.40.



Hogwash. We've hit $4 SEVERAL times under Obama.
It's around $3.14 here and that is only recently. Last week was $3.04. I can't remember the last time it was over $4. You should move somewhere better.
This. 38 million people, their worst drought in a looonng time, and the Central Valley will not be getting any water from the feds this year. Why would you stay in a shithole like that? Hell, I saw the light 30 years ago.

Gas about $3.25 right now. All hail mighty Obama, the compassionate, the merciful..... :notworthy:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by JohnStOnge »

93 be layin' the wood to the conksuckers.
No because the branch of government responsible for spending is the Congress. Also appropriations bills are initiated in the House. The Democrats controlled the House of Representatives for 51 of the 68 years represented on that chart and controlled both Houses of Congress for 45 of the 68 years (Republicans did that for 15).

Reagan, as an example, always had a Democrat House and, though the majority of Senators were Republican in his first term, it was a narrow margin. Never more than by 8 seats. He never had a filibuster proof majority. He did not control spending.

Another thing is that what you see in that graph could basically be due to a scenario in which our system has increased a tendency towards a positive exponential increase so that WHOEVER is in office is just going to have to try to manage the rate to some extent but is not going to be able to do anything about the basic trend.

You go into debt and can't make ends meet. So you borrow to make ends meet. Meanwhile spending continues to increase and you have to go farther down that road. A scenario in which that kind of system inevitably results in a trend towards an positive exponential increase in debt is very plausible. It's like the figure below. What governs it is the underlying function. Nobody came in and changed anything at the point where the slope starts to increase dramatically. It's just the nature of the "system."

It could be that the exponential increase will continue unless the system is fundamentally changed. There could be some points at which things level off for a while or down tic a little. But the basic trend may persist. And by the system changing I mean get rid of the idea that government has to take care of everybody. Get rid of concepts like Medicare, Universal Health Care and, yes, Social Security. Because if you don't think Social Security is part of the problem and is going to become a much bigger part of the problem fairly soon down the road you are falling for a shell game.

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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by 93henfan »

But the chart I posted is not exponential at all. It clearly spiked in WWII, remained relatively flat for 35 years, exploded under Reagan, tapered and actually reversed under Clinton, and exploded again under Bush.

You're not very good at interpreting graphs.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by Skjellyfetti »

93henfan wrote: Image
The left shoulder and head of an head-and-shoulder pattern in 90s and 00s. :shock:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by JohnStOnge »

93henfan wrote:But the chart I posted is not exponential at all. It clearly spiked in WWII, remained relatively flat for 35 years, exploded under Reagan, tapered and actually reversed under Clinton, and exploded again under Bush.

You're not very good at interpreting graphs.
It's not going to be a perfect exponential curve but look at the exponential curve. It is relatively flat to a point then "explodes." Also, the Clinton Administration is the point at which Republicans assumed control of both houses of Congress for the first time since 1953. The few years we had when there was a budget surplus were years during which the Republicans controlled both houses of Congress.

Look at your graph and contemplate the fact that the Republicans gained control of both Houses of Congress in 1995. That coincides to the point at which things started to flatten out then even decline for a couple of years.

Now, it's true that the Republicans also controlled both Houses of Congress later when things started moving up again. But if you're going to look for an association between the point at which things started to flatten out in the 1990s it's not when Clinton took office. It's when the Republicans took control of Congress.

In any case, in spite of that brief respite, the overall picture is not that far off of an underlying positive exponential curve.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by BlueHen86 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
93henfan wrote:But the chart I posted is not exponential at all. It clearly spiked in WWII, remained relatively flat for 35 years, exploded under Reagan, tapered and actually reversed under Clinton, and exploded again under Bush.

You're not very good at interpreting graphs.
It's not going to be a perfect exponential curve but look at the exponential curve. It is relatively flat to a point then "explodes." Also, the Clinton Administration is the point at which Republicans assumed control of both houses of Congress for the first time since 1953. The few years we had when there was a budget surplus were years during which the Republicans controlled both houses of Congress.

Look at your graph and contemplate the fact that the Republicans gained control of both Houses of Congress in 1995. That coincides to the point at which things started to flatten out then even decline for a couple of years.

Now, it's true that the Republicans also controlled both Houses of Congress later when things started moving up again. But if you're going to look for an association between the point at which things started to flatten out in the 1990s it's not when Clinton took office. It's when the Republicans took control of Congress.

In any case, in spite of that brief respite, the overall picture is not that far off of an underlying positive exponential curve.
No it doesn't, according to that graph, 1999 is when things flattened out.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by JohnStOnge »

No it doesn't, according to that graph, 1999 is when things flattened out.
I think things went downward in 1999. I think the point at which the upward slope started to flatten out was around 1995. The rate of increase started slowing around then. Then it actually decreased in 1999 and 2000 before turning upward again and kind of eliminating any hope of stemming the increase.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by 89Hen »

dbackjon wrote:And, as others have noted, gas was very high during most of Dubya's term.
As much fail as there was trying to pretend gas wasn't high at the end of W's term, you pushed the lying to a new level. :coffee:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by 93henfan »

89Hen wrote:
dbackjon wrote:And, as others have noted, gas was very high during most of Dubya's term.
As much fail as there was trying to pretend gas wasn't high at the end of W's term, you pushed the lying to a new level. :coffee:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by BlueHen86 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
No it doesn't, according to that graph, 1999 is when things flattened out.
I think things went downward in 1999. I think the point at which the upward slope started to flatten out was around 1995. The rate of increase started slowing around then. Then it actually decreased in 1999 and 2000 before turning upward again and kind of eliminating any hope of stemming the increase.
We must not be looking at the same graph. I'm looking at the graph that 93henfan posted. A nice bar graph with dates listed.

Your graph is nice, but with no dates it might as well reflect the time that Mr. Slate gave Fred a big raise at the quarry.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by SuperHornet »

houndawg wrote:
SuperHornet wrote:
Low $3s, my foot. Our best price in town just went back back over $3.40.



Hogwash. We've hit $4 SEVERAL times under Obama.
We haven't. :coffee:
:bs:

You obviously haven't taken any trips out to Cali. I just saw gas over $4 today in Stockton. (For premium, anyway.)
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by JohnStOnge »

We must not be looking at the same graph. I'm looking at the graph that 93henfan posted. A nice bar graph with dates listed.

Your graph is nice, but with no dates it might as well reflect the time that Mr. Slate gave Fred a big raise at the quarry.
My graph is just a general one of a positive exponential function.

In the graph 93henfan posted the deficit clearly went down in 1998 and 1999. Before that it appears to have been flat or close to flat in 1996 and 1997.

Look at the rate of increase in the years before that. You will see that it started to slow down around 1995.

The change does not coincide to the point at which Clinton took office. It coincides to the point at which the Republicans gained control of both houses of Congress.

That doesn't prove there is a cause and effect. But it is the association.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by BlueHen86 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
We must not be looking at the same graph. I'm looking at the graph that 93henfan posted. A nice bar graph with dates listed.

Your graph is nice, but with no dates it might as well reflect the time that Mr. Slate gave Fred a big raise at the quarry.
My graph is just a general one of a positive exponential function.

In the graph 93henfan posted the deficit clearly went down in 1998 and 1999. Before that it appears to have been flat or close to flat in 1996 and 1997.

Look at the rate of increase in the years before that. You will see that it started to slow down around 1995.

The change does not coincide to the point at which Clinton took office. It coincides to the point at which the Republicans gained control of both houses of Congress.

That doesn't prove there is a cause and effect. But it is the association.
You are off by two years. 93's graph appears to be flat for 1998 and 1999, with a drop in 2000 and 2001. Are we really looking at the same graph? :lol:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by BDKJMU »

houndawg wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Well, in all honesty, college football fans associated with a down program typically don't give a new coach more than maybe four years. And it's probably even shorter in the NFL.

Having said that I don't think we know that gasoline prices wouldn't be about where they are now regardless of who had been President since January, 2009. I think there are other reasons for lamenting the fact that Obama is President; not the least of which is the fact that we have developed a population of people that would elect somebody like that.

And no, I'm not talking about the fact that he is a half-breed. I'm talking about his outlook on the role of government and the Constitution as well as the fact that he was totally unqualified for the office. It really said something about the state of the American population that Obama ever got elected President and what was said is not positive.
He deserves a 3rd term. :coffee:

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7,949 The DOW 16,459

7.8% Unemployment 6.7%

-5.4% GDP Growth 4.1%

9.8% Deficit GDP 3.3%

37.7 Consumer Confidence 78.1


Oh those pesky facts....Well done, Mr. President! :thumb:

If he were white you'd be slopping his knob in the Rose Garden, John. :nod:
We'll those all aren't pesky facts. I see you didn't provide a link.

Dow opened at 8279 1/20/09, the morning Barry took office.
http://www.politifact.com/virginia/stat ... ubles-oba/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It isn't 16459. Closed yesterday at 16103. It is way overvalued and headed for a big correction.

And national debt under Barry has exploded from about 10.6 billion when he took office to over 17.4 billion. Close to 7 trillion in 6+ years. On pace to increase by close to 9 trillion in 8 years by the time he leaves office. Contrast that with under big spending Bush went up close to 5 trillion in 8 years (5.7 to 10.6).
http://www.usdebtclock.org" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Govt's unemployment #s have only fallen because millions have dropped out of the workforce and the labor force participation rate is at a 30+ year low.

And just wait till Obamacare kicks in. As bad as it is, Obama can't keep delaying it forever...
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by houndawg »

SuperHornet wrote:
houndawg wrote:
We haven't. :coffee:
:bs:

You obviously haven't taken any trips out to Cali. I just saw gas over $4 today in Stockton. (For premium, anyway.)


So move if you don't like the price of gas in CA. You're going to have bigger problems than gas shortly. :coffee:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by Cap'n Cat »

Conserve, assholes. Get out of the Escalades and Expeditions. Gas ain't never going down appreciably. Live with it.
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by SDHornet »

SuperHornet wrote:
houndawg wrote:
We haven't. :coffee:
:bs:

You obviously haven't taken any trips out to Cali. I just saw gas over $4 today in Stockton. (For premium, anyway.)
Then you're doing it wrong. Haven't paid over $3.40 a gallon for quite a while now. :coffee:
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Re: So Everything's Bush's Fault?!?

Post by SuperHornet »

I didn't say I actually PAID that, SD. I just saw it. My owner's manual says that anything higher than the cheap stuff will damage my engine, so I don't get anything higher than that. ARCO just recently shot up to $3.49 (they were as low as $3.25 before the most recent surge).

My point is that stating that $4 hasn't happened under the current Presidency is a like. If you're stating that the NATIONAL AVERAGE hasn't hit that high, fine. Say so. Just making the bald statement that it hasn't happened is disingenuous at best and deceitful at worst, so you better not whine if you get called on it.

(No, you didn't do that, SD....)
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