The Ukraine Crisis

[Skjellyfetti]

Yeah, pretty sure Seattle and SD won't give ISW a second glance - they're convinced it's BS.

Maybe they'll give Moscow Times a chance. One of the only independent newspapers that hasn't been shut down (yet) in Russia.

Explainer: Why is Russia Trying So Hard to Capture the Small Ukrainian City of Bakhmut?

What appeal does Bakhmut hold for the Russian Armed Forces?
Seizing Bakhmut would give Russia a small, strategic foothold to launch a wider offensive against the Ukrainian-held cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk to the north.

Bakhmut also sits on a crucial highway that runs diagonally through Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

But Russia’s focus on the city has nonetheless baffled analysts, who point out that the battle to take Bakhmut has cost Moscow dearly in both men and equipment.

“No one really understands the significance of Bakhmut,” said defense analyst Konrad Muzyka of Poland-based Rochan Consulting.

“No one can really explain… why Russians are fighting so ferociously for it.”

One possible reason for Russia pouring so many men and resources into the battle is that it has become a question of military prestige — after months of trying to take the city, Moscow is reluctant to admit defeat.

Russian forces have been attempting to seize Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region for at least seven months. But in recent weeks, the battle in and around the city has become one of the fiercest of the nine-month war in Ukraine.

Bakhmut, which sits above a vast salt mine and is famed for its Soviet-era winery, has been badly damaged — and in parts totally destroyed — by constant shelling.

Russia’s determination to take Bakhmut has puzzled many observers, who question Moscow’s huge commitment of resources to the fight despite the city’s relative lack of strategic significance.

The Moscow Times considers why the Kremlin might be so keen to capture the city.

“Russia has been fighting for such a long time, they think they may as well do everything they can to capture Bakhmut,” Muzyka told The Moscow Times.

Which Russian troops are leading the assault?

The fighting is being led by Russian mercenary company Wagner, backed up by Russian artillery, units of mobilized soldiers and air power.

Headed by Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner employs mercenaries, including thousands recruited from Russian prisons, and has seen its profile rise greatly since the invasion of Ukraine began.

“When Wagner conducts attacks [in Bakhmut], the first wave is former inmates, the second is Russian mobilized servicemen, then the third wave is regular Wagner troops,” Muzyka said.

However, the head-on assaults carried out by Russian forces in and around Bakhmut have, so far, been largely repelled by the Ukrainian military.

“It’s like a conveyor belt,” one Ukrainian machine-gunner deployed in Bakhmut said in an interview with the Financial Times last week.

What does Wagner have to gain from seizing Bakhmut?

Following a number of embarrassing setbacks in recent months, the Russian military appears to be under growing pressure from the Kremlin for battlefield success.

Should Wagner finally capture Bakhmut, it would mark a significant victory for the mercenary group and boost Prigozhin’s reputation domestically, according to Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian security at University College London.

“There used to be something of a military rationale when the Russians were trying to advance … but it has long since been more about bloody-mindedness and Prigozhin’s desire — need — for a victory,” Galeotti told The Moscow Times.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/12/ ... mut-a79672


They'll also dismiss this as BS. Pretty much confirming that only Russian state media (or their megaphones) are legit.






Edit:
ISW from September dumbfounded that Russia was devoting so many resources trying to take insignificant Bakhmut instead of defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson. Oops!

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

[SeattleGriz]

Not sure if it will shake out this way, but Will's been pretty good on his predictions. Nothing deep of course, but more big picture.

This is what I assume Russia would call victory.

[UNI88]

Not sure if it will shake out this way, but Will's been pretty good on his predictions. Nothing deep of course, but more big picture.

This is what I assume Russia would call victory.

Seems pretty sloppy.

His words contradict the image. Chernihiv, Sumy and Poltava are shown to be part of what will be Ukraine but he says there will be military occupation and referendums.

Those Russian Nazis would need to approximately quadruple the amount of territory they control in order to establish the fascist state of Novorussia.

Hungary's going to take a small chunk of Ukraine? Are they leaving NATO and the EU? Their economy will crater and they can join Russia and Belarus in the breadline.

[Skjellyfetti]

They control all of Crimea and Donetsk. That's it. They almost control all of Luhansk, but not quite anymore.

Russia better get to work.

[SeattleGriz]

They control all of Crimea and Donetsk. That's it. They almost control all of Luhansk, but not quite anymore.

Russia better get to work.

As many have stated, Russia is building up forces for some sort of "push", although I keep wondering if they will go hardcore or just keep inching along.

Ukraine is down big time on weaponry and troops, so Russia might simply be happy with NATO sending more Ukrainians into the artillery buzzsaw.

In regards to ISW, you see Bill Kristol is involved with them? He's pretty much a Lincoln Project guy. For years said he would help conservatives achieve their goals, then hated Trump when he did what Kristol had promised but never delivered. I have no clue if they put out accurate accounts...hell, I have no idea if the guys I read are accurate. I only know Western Media lost my trust a long time ago. I trust them as far as I could throw them.

[SeattleGriz]

Not sure if it will shake out this way, but Will's been pretty good on his predictions. Nothing deep of course, but more big picture.

This is what I assume Russia would call victory.

Seems pretty sloppy.

His words contradict the image. Chernihiv, Sumy and Poltava are shown to be part of what will be Ukraine but he says there will be military occupation and referendums.

Those Russian Nazis would need to approximately quadruple the amount of territory they control in order to establish the fascist state of Novorussia.

Hungary's going to take a small chunk of Ukraine? Are they leaving NATO and the EU? Their economy will crater and they can join Russia and Belarus in the breadline.

I assume he meant referendums only in the blue areas they currently don't control, specifically the Odessa and Chernigov regions. You know, the parts that historically have been more accepting of Russia.

What strategically do you see from that map? To me it's obvious Russia does not want anyone near the Black Sea.

[UNI88]

Seems pretty sloppy.

His words contradict the image. Chernihiv, Sumy and Poltava are shown to be part of what will be Ukraine but he says there will be military occupation and referendums.

Those Russian Nazis would need to approximately quadruple the amount of territory they control in order to establish the fascist state of Novorussia.

Hungary's going to take a small chunk of Ukraine? Are they leaving NATO and the EU? Their economy will crater and they can join Russia and Belarus in the breadline.

I assume he meant referendums only in the blue areas they currently don't control, specifically the Odessa and Chernigov regions. You know, the parts that historically has been more accepting of Russia.

What strategically do you see from that map? To me it's obvious Russia does not want anyone near the Black Sea.

He specifically states that Kremlin sources announce Chernihiv (in the green) will be annexed into Russia if referendums so choose and that would seem to presuppose military occupation. He follows that up saying "expect Sumy and Poltava to follow. They're also in the green.

I'm not sure he would know his asshole from a hole in the ground.

[SeattleGriz]

I assume he meant referendums only in the blue areas they currently don't control, specifically the Odessa and Chernigov regions. You know, the parts that historically has been more accepting of Russia.

What strategically do you see from that map? To me it's obvious Russia does not want anyone near the Black Sea.

He specifically states that Kremlin sources announce Chernihiv (in the green) will be annexed into Russia if referendums so choose and that would seem to presuppose military occupation. He follows that up saying "expect Sumy and Poltava to follow. They're also in the green.

I'm not sure he would know his asshole from a hole in the ground.

Ah, I see. Had to actually clink into to read what areas.

Yep. A buffer of between the EU and Russia. That actually comports better with what Putin wanted at the beginning of the SMO.

[Skjellyfetti]

Ah, I see. Had to actually clink into to read what areas.

Yep. A buffer of between the EU and Russia. That actually comports better with what Putin wanted at the beginning of the SMO.

That makes no sense. Or you finally realize your feint theory was bullshit because it seems hard to reconcile both of them as being some sort of coherent strategy.

They pushed deep into Chernihiv and Sumy at the beginning of the invasion. They reached the outskirts of Kyiv by pushing from the east from those oblasts.



But, they abandoned all their gains - because it was just a feint.

But, really, they ultimately want the entirety of those oblasts as a buffer and will end up wanting to take them later (TBD on real Sumy/Chernihiv offensive).

WAT

[SeattleGriz]

Ah, I see. Had to actually clink into to read what areas.

Yep. A buffer of between the EU and Russia. That actually comports better with what Putin wanted at the beginning of the SMO.

That makes no sense. Or you finally realize your feint theory was bullshit because it seems hard to reconcile both of them as being some sort of coherent strategy.

They pushed deep into Chernihiv and Sumy at the beginning of the invasion. They reached the outskirts of Kyiv by pushing from the east from those oblasts.



But, they abandoned all their gains - because it was just a feint.

But, really, they ultimately want the entirety of those oblasts as a buffer and will end up wanting to take them later (TBD on real Sumy/Chernihiv offensive).

WAT

Do you understand what a feint is? You seem to think land occupied can't be left. Russians were outnumbered 3:1 in addition to those troops being the JV team.

Think about it. Where were all the best Ukrainian troops positioned at the start of this? On the border, shelling the shit out of the E Ukrainian civilians.

If you break past that "line" it forces the Ukrainian troops stationed near the border to have to leave that border to protect the more W part of the country.

Don't you remember the Gulf war when the US feinted an amphibious assault to keep Saddam's troops there? Same principle. If you have to defend territory, it requires troops that then cannot be involved in actual fighting.

Lastly, I don't see any of you guys bothering to show your sources or what they predict. Just weak ass click bait sites saying Russia has lost 3,000 generals and Putin is running from assassination squads because he is so unpopular.

[SeattleGriz]

Ah, I see. Had to actually clink into to read what areas.

Yep. A buffer of between the EU and Russia. That actually comports better with what Putin wanted at the beginning of the SMO.

That makes no sense. Or you finally realize your feint theory was bullshit because it seems hard to reconcile both of them as being some sort of coherent strategy.

They pushed deep into Chernihiv and Sumy at the beginning of the invasion. They reached the outskirts of Kyiv by pushing from the east from those oblasts.



But, they abandoned all their gains - because it was just a feint.

But, really, they ultimately want the entirety of those oblasts as a buffer and will end up wanting to take them later (TBD on real Sumy/Chernihiv offensive).

WAT

I'm also willing to believe Putin thought he could go into those areas and receive local support, but didn't get what he needed and therefore had to leave because he didn't have the resources to keep the land. Therefore, not a feint.

The lack of local support was due to fear of retribution from Ukrainian troops. We've seen that play out quit a bit.

[houndawg]

Invasion?

So then what would you call our actions into Iraq, a special military operation?

This thread is about Ukraine. Which you now seem to agree is an invasion.

[houndawg]

We aren't using military force, Ukraine is using military force against an invader...or.....how can Russia's actions not be justified when this whole thing is Ukraines fault?

Compare, contrast, discuss

Reports are NATO folks are manning/directing the HIMARS we sent them. Is that not direct involvement?

That stopped being an issue when the Russians began deliberately attacking civilians.

[SDHornet]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine ... to-1766108

I read a military analysis that Bakhmut has no strategic relevance. It's a city of 70,000 (now 10,000) that contributes nothing to the battlefield and has no natural resources besides salt mines, which are already plentiful and cheap. It seems like Putin just needs a "win" among the mounting losses and Bakhmut was the easiest option, but it's also proving to not be easy at all. They've been wasting effort for months and still haven't taken it.

And even if do, it'll be at a high cost. Seems like another military blunder to stroke Putin's fragile ego.

edit:

Putin continues to seem unwilling to pursue such a cessation of fighting, however. The Russian military is continuing offensive operations around Bakhmut and is—so far—denying itself the operational pause that would be consistent with best military practice. Putin’s current fixation with continuing offensive operations around Bakhmut and elsewhere is contributing to Ukraine’s ability to maintain the military initiative in other parts of the theater. Ukraine’s continued operational successes depend on Ukrainian forces’ ability to continue successive operations through the winter of 2022-2023 without interruption.[13]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... december-7

(by the way, the Institute for the Study of War is a think tank with some excellent analysis/updates regarding the war).

Then why did Ukraine throw away so many lives defending it?

Also just looking at a map and all the various roads going to different areas in the Donbas says otherwise.

[SDHornet]

Not sure if it will shake out this way, but Will's been pretty good on his predictions. Nothing deep of course, but more big picture.

This is what I assume Russia would call victory.

Seems pretty sloppy.

His words contradict the image. Chernihiv, Sumy and Poltava are shown to be part of what will be Ukraine but he says there will be military occupation and referendums.

Those Russian Nazis would need to approximately quadruple the amount of territory they control in order to establish the fascist state of Novorussia.

Hungary's going to take a small chunk of Ukraine? Are they leaving NATO and the EU? Their economy will crater and they can join Russia and Belarus in the breadline.

Yeah not buying that. The retreat from Kherson pretty much eliminates the Russian ground threat on Odessa. I guess we'll have to revisit this next summer.

[SDHornet]

Yeah, pretty sure Seattle and SD won't give ISW a second glance - they're convinced it's BS.

Maybe they'll give Moscow Times a chance. One of the only independent newspapers that hasn't been shut down (yet) in Russia.

Correct. ISW is just a cover for spooks to push their narrative from the Pentagon. I don't read Russia Times but I'll guess it's the Kremlin's version of ISW.

[SDHornet]

That makes no sense. Or you finally realize your feint theory was bullshit because it seems hard to reconcile both of them as being some sort of coherent strategy.

They pushed deep into Chernihiv and Sumy at the beginning of the invasion. They reached the outskirts of Kyiv by pushing from the east from those oblasts.



But, they abandoned all their gains - because it was just a feint.

But, really, they ultimately want the entirety of those oblasts as a buffer and will end up wanting to take them later (TBD on real Sumy/Chernihiv offensive).

WAT

Do you understand what a feint is? You seem to think land occupied can't be left. Russians were outnumbered 3:1 in addition to those troops being the JV team.

Think about it. Where were all the best Ukrainian troops positioned at the start of this? On the border, shelling the shit out of the E Ukrainian civilians.

If you break past that "line" it forces the Ukrainian troops stationed near the border to have to leave that border to protect the more W part of the country.

Don't you remember the Gulf war when the US feinted an amphibious assault to keep Saddam's troops there? Same principle. If you have to defend territory, it requires troops that then cannot be involved in actual fighting.

Lastly, I don't see any of you guys bothering to show your sources or what they predict. Just weak ass click bait sites saying Russia has lost 3,000 generals and Putin is running from assassination squads because he is so unpopular.

Shut up SG, Russia is going to collapse any day now and they ran out of missiles in March.

[SDHornet]

Interesting, seems like they are laying the groundwork to prep the public on US/NATO troops being on the ground, hhmm....

[Skjellyfetti]

OMG. Royal Marines were sent to escort diplomats from the British embassy before the war broke out.

Writing in the Globe and Laurel, the official publication of the Royal Marines, he described how 350 marines from 45 Commando were sent to escort diplomats from the British embassy at the beginning of the year when it became clear that Russian troops were massing for an invasion.

[houndawg]

They control all of Crimea and Donetsk. That's it. They almost control all of Luhansk, but not quite anymore.

Russia better get to work.

As many have stated, Russia is building up forces for some sort of "push", although I keep wondering if they will go hardcore or just keep inching along.

Ukraine is down big time on weaponry and troops, so Russia might simply be happy with NATO sending more Ukrainians into the artillery buzzsaw.

In regards to ISW, you see Bill Kristol is involved with them? He's pretty much a Lincoln Project guy. For years said he would help conservatives achieve their goals, then hated Trump when he did what Kristol had promised but never delivered. I have no clue if they put out accurate accounts...hell, I have no idea if the guys I read are accurate. I only know Western Media lost my trust a long time ago. I trust them as far as I could throw them.

If by "inching along" you mean targeting civilians, yes.

Inching along cold and hungry while the Ukrainians hammer their supply lines that barely work anyway.... ... and a goddamn shame that Russia's young men and their nation's standard of living have to pay the price for one of history's greatest geopolitical blunders, and this one is going to be ranked with Churchill's Gallipoli and Hitler's opening a second front in Russia...

[SeattleGriz]

As many have stated, Russia is building up forces for some sort of "push", although I keep wondering if they will go hardcore or just keep inching along.

Ukraine is down big time on weaponry and troops, so Russia might simply be happy with NATO sending more Ukrainians into the artillery buzzsaw.

In regards to ISW, you see Bill Kristol is involved with them? He's pretty much a Lincoln Project guy. For years said he would help conservatives achieve their goals, then hated Trump when he did what Kristol had promised but never delivered. I have no clue if they put out accurate accounts...hell, I have no idea if the guys I read are accurate. I only know Western Media lost my trust a long time ago. I trust them as far as I could throw them.

If by "inching along" you mean targeting civilians, yes.

Inching along cold and hungry while the Ukrainians hammer their supply lines that barely work anyway.... ... and a goddamn shame that Russia's young men and their nation's standard of living have to pay the price for one of history's greatest geopolitical blunders, and this one is going to be ranked with Churchill's Gallipoli and Hitler's opening a second front in Russia...

You just can't give the whole "killing civilians" up can you, even though you can't back up your statements unlike the media that proved Ukraine has been killing their own through using shitty old Soviet weaponry and the Azov pussies using civilians as shields.

I expected better trolling out of you Cid #2. You sound as bad as Cleets when he tried to talk about Christianity. A mess.

I do appreciate your efforts though. Everyone except my comrade SD is totally butthurt over shit nobody knows the truth about.

[houndawg]

If by "inching along" you mean targeting civilians, yes.

Inching along cold and hungry while the Ukrainians hammer their supply lines that barely work anyway.... ... and a goddamn shame that Russia's young men and their nation's standard of living have to pay the price for one of history's greatest geopolitical blunders, and this one is going to be ranked with Churchill's Gallipoli and Hitler's opening a second front in Russia...

You just can't give the whole "killing civilians" up can you, even though you can't back up your statements unlike the media that proved Ukraine has been killing their own through using shitty old Soviet weaponry and the Azov pussies using civilians as shields.

I expected better trolling out of you Cid #2. You sound as bad as Cleets when he tried to talk about Christianity. A mess.

Ah yes, the recycled Egyptian sun-god myth...

[SeattleGriz]

You just can't give the whole "killing civilians" up can you, even though you can't back up your statements unlike the media that proved Ukraine has been killing their own through using shitty old Soviet weaponry and the Azov pussies using civilians as shields.

I expected better trolling out of you Cid #2. You sound as bad as Cleets when he tried to talk about Christianity. A mess.

Ah yes, the recycled Egyptian sun-god myth...

Dammit. You beat my edit. I was actually giving you props for having some fun with this thread.

[UNI88]

If by "inching along" you mean targeting civilians, yes.

Inching along cold and hungry while the Ukrainians hammer their supply lines that barely work anyway.... ... and a goddamn shame that Russia's young men and their nation's standard of living have to pay the price for one of history's greatest geopolitical blunders, and this one is going to be ranked with Churchill's Gallipoli and Hitler's opening a second front in Russia...

You just can't give the whole "killing civilians" up can you, even though you can't back up your statements unlike the media that proved Ukraine has been killing their own through using shitty old Soviet weaponry and the Azov pussies using civilians as shields.

I expected better trolling out of you Cid #2. You sound as bad as Cleets when he tried to talk about Christianity. A mess.

I do appreciate your efforts though. Everyone except my comrade SD is totally butthurt over shit nobody knows the truth about.

Including you.

CID got tired of kicking your ass, maybe he was worried you'd drag him down to your level and beat him with experience. CID's Bugs Bunny and you and SD are Pete Puma on this thread ...

[SeattleGriz]

You just can't give the whole "killing civilians" up can you, even though you can't back up your statements unlike the media that proved Ukraine has been killing their own through using shitty old Soviet weaponry and the Azov pussies using civilians as shields.

I expected better trolling out of you Cid #2. You sound as bad as Cleets when he tried to talk about Christianity. A mess.

I do appreciate your efforts though. Everyone except my comrade SD is totally butthurt over shit nobody knows the truth about.

Including you.

CID got tired of kicking your ass and was worried you'd drag him down to your level and beat him with experience. CID's Bugs Bunny and you're Pete Puma ...

Agreed. Why do you think I always post predictions? It's a way to go back and see who was right.

Love the bugs bunny gif! A for classic reference.