FCS Composite top 25 and Conference Ratings

[JohnStOnge]

From http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; . Yes I know, as was discussed last year when we looked at the final composite ranking, that there are very questionable outliers. Like for instance right now one system, Smart, has Sam Houston State rated 56th. Plenty of reason for thinking that is a questionable system. In FCS it has Portland State ranked #1 and 0-4 Northern Colorado ranked #3. In FBS it has Louisville ranked #1 and Alabama ranked #18. You would think its creator would wonder if maybe there is a serious problem with his system and try to correct things but it is what it is. Looks bad. It's not included in Todd Beck's tracking of how well power rating systems do (http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;). Maybe there's a reason for that.

However, the composite uses 44 systems including some human polls so outliers like that should have minimal effect. So here we go:

TOP 25

1. North Dakota State (4-0)
2. Northern Iowa (4-0)
3. Towson State (5-0)
4. Eastern Illinois (4-1)
5. Sam Houston State (4-1)
6. Coastal Carolina (5-0)
7. Maine (4-1)
8. Bethune Cookman (3-1)
9. Villanova (2-2)
10. Fordham (5-0)
11. Eastern Washington (2-2)
12. McNeese State (4-1)
13. Harvard (2-0)
14. Williwam & Mary (3-1)
15. Northern Arizona (3-1)
16. Tennessee Martin (3-1)
17. Georgia Southern (3-1)
18. Southern Utah (4-1)
19. Tennessee State (4-1)
20. Central Arkansas (2-2)
21. Youngstown State (4-1)
22. South Dakota State (3-2)
23. Cal Poly SLO (2-2)
24. Wofford (2-2)
25. Old Dominion 3-2)

CONFERENCE RATINGS

1. Missouri Valley
2. Colonial Athletic
3. Southland
4. Ohio Valley
5. Big Sky
6. Southern
7. Big South
8. Ivy
9. Mid Eastern Athletic
10. FCS Independents
11. Patriot
12. Northeast
13. Southwestern Athletic
14. Pioneer

Some weird things have happened this season. Like Stephen F. Austin beating Montana State one week then losing to Prairie View, which lost to Southern after Southern lost by 55-14 to Northwestern State, the next. Like Tennessee Martin beating Central Arkansas. Like Eastern Illinois beating both San Diego State (in a blowout) and Southern Illinois. Plus losing by only 43-39 on the road to Northern Illinois looks pretty darned good too right now. And then there's that thing with Big South teams causing issues.

It really has been an interesting and somewhat unusual season so far, I think.

[89Hen]

You would think its creator would wonder if maybe there is a serious problem with his system and try to correct things but it is what it is. Looks bad.

Ask them... then duck.

[uofmman1122]

6. Coastal Carolina (5-0)
7. Maine (4-1)
8. Bethune Cookman (3-1)
11. Eastern Washington (2-2)
13. Harvard (2-0)
16. Tennessee Martin (3-1)
18. Southern Utah (4-1)
19. Tennessee State (4-1)

[JohnStOnge]

6. Coastal Carolina (5-0)
7. Maine (4-1)
8. Bethune Cookman (3-1)
11. Eastern Washington (2-2)
13. Harvard (2-0)
16. Tennessee Martin (3-1)
18. Southern Utah (4-1)
19. Tennessee State (4-1)

Explain. The only one of those that stands out to me as notably questionable is Bethune Cookman. I looked at their results and there's not a whole lot to go on. They beat a FBS but it was Florida International and they're really bad this year. They lost big to Florida State but, heck, that could happen to anybody in FCS. They beat Tennessee State, which is otherwise undefeated, but not a lot to go on in Tennessee State's other games either.

[89Hen]

I would say Dolphin looks to be the best of the bunch:

1. Towson
3. Villanova
6. William and Mary
7. Maine
8. Old Dominion
9. Richmond
11. Stony Brook
18. JMU

[Grizalltheway]

Explain. The only one of those that stands out to me as notably questionable is Bethune Cookman. I looked at their results and there's not a whole lot to go on. They beat a FBS but it was Florida International and they're really bad this year. They lost big to Florida State but, heck, that could happen to anybody in FCS. They beat Tennessee State, which is otherwise undefeated, but not a lot to go on in Tennessee State's other games either.

Coastal is not the 6th best team in the country, and Montana unequivocally belongs in the top 25.

[89Hen]

Coastal is not the 6th best team in the country.

You're just not used to seeing them up there. It's a changing of the old guard. At least that's what I've been told.

[Ibanez]

Coastal is not the 6th best team in the country.

You're just not used to seeing them up there. It's a changing of the old guard. At least that's what I've been told.

This. Get used to it. Some teams are going to rise up in the ranks just as others fall. It's ok. Schools like AppState and Montana can't be at the top forever.


And how is the Southern Conference ranked ahead of the Big South when the Big South has been crushing them all season? The SoCon will continue to fall apart next season when they get VMI.

[Grizalltheway]

You're just not used to seeing them up there. It's a changing of the old guard. At least that's what I've been told.

This. Get used to it. Some teams are going to rise up in the ranks just as others fall. It's ok. Schools like AppState and Montana can't be at the top forever.


And how is the Southern Conference ranked ahead of the Big South when the Big South has been crushing them all season? The SoCon will continue to fall apart next season when they get VMI.

How 'bout you wait until you actually win a playoff game before you go declaring a new world order?

[Ibanez]

This. Get used to it. Some teams are going to rise up in the ranks just as others fall. It's ok. Schools like AppState and Montana can't be at the top forever.


And how is the Southern Conference ranked ahead of the Big South when the Big South has been crushing them all season? The SoCon will continue to fall apart next season when they get VMI.

How 'bout you wait until you actually win a playoff game before you go declaring a new world order?

How bout you stop being a crusty, bitter old man.

Back in my day, the queers stayed in New York and the coons were in the field!!

[Grizalltheway]

How 'bout you wait until you actually win a playoff game before you go declaring a new world order?

How bout you stop being a crusty, bitter old man.

Back in my day, the queers stayed in New York and the coons were in the field!!

You're 5 years older than me, dork.

[Ibanez]

How bout you stop being a crusty, bitter old man.

Back in my day, the queers stayed in New York and the coons were in the field!!

You're 5 years older than me, dork.

Yeah, but, you know what I was sayin.

[89Hen]

You're just not used to seeing them up there. It's a changing of the old guard. At least that's what I've been told.

This. Get used to it. Some teams are going to rise up in the ranks just as others fall. It's ok. Schools like AppState and Montana can't be at the top forever.

Exactly. When a UD falls, there's a JMU or Towson or Villanova or W&M or Richmond or UNH to take their place. When a Montana falls, there's an EWU or Montana State or Weber to take their place. When a UNI falls, there's an NDSU or SIU or YSU or SDSU to take their place. See, it's new teams all the time. However, some teams/conferences need to win post-season before I put them in my top 10. I don't know how many times a team like Jacksonville State, EKU, SCSt, etc... have to dupe the pollsters before they catch on.

[uofmman1122]

This. Get used to it. Some teams are going to rise up in the ranks just as others fall. It's ok. Schools like AppState and Montana can't be at the top forever.

Exactly. When a UD falls, there's a JMU or Towson or Villanova or W&M or Richmond or UNH to take their place. When a Montana falls, there's an EWU or Montana State or Weber to take their place. When a UNI falls, there's an NDSU or SIU or YSU or SDSU to take their place. See, it's new teams all the time. However, some teams/conferences need to win post-season before I put them in my top 10. I don't know how many times a team like Jacksonville State, EKU, SCSt, etc... have to dupe the pollsters before they catch on.

This.

[bucs90]

You're just not used to seeing them up there. It's a changing of the old guard. At least that's what I've been told.

This. Get used to it. Some teams are going to rise up in the ranks just as others fall. It's ok. Schools like AppState and Montana can't be at the top forever.


And how is the Southern Conference ranked ahead of the Big South when the Big South has been crushing them all season? The SoCon will continue to fall apart next season when they get VMI.

Agree. People just aren't used to seeing a name like Coastal or Garnder Webb up there.

And you are absolutely right. The Big South goes 7-1 vs the SoCon, and if not for a blocked field goal by Furman vs PC, they'd be 8-0. And the SoCon is rated higher???

The Big South may not have the history the SoCon has. But we are ranking them RIGHT NOW, now all-time or historical rankings. And in 2013 only, the Big South has shown it is far better than the SoCon. 7-1 speaks for itself.

[JohnStOnge]

Exactly. When a UD falls, there's a JMU or Towson or Villanova or W&M or Richmond or UNH to take their place. When a Montana falls, there's an EWU or Montana State or Weber to take their place. When a UNI falls, there's an NDSU or SIU or YSU or SDSU to take their place. See, it's new teams all the time. However, some teams/conferences need to win post-season before I put them in my top 10. I don't know how many times a team like Jacksonville State, EKU, SCSt, etc... have to dupe the pollsters before they catch on.

I know it's tough to disregard what's happened in the playoffs in previous years. That's why I thought Sam Houston State was going to get crushed by the first power conference team it played in 2011. It's because that's what had been happening to Southland teams even when they really dominated the conference like McNeese did in 2007.

But I don't see how one can not, for example, give an Eastern Illinois credit at this point of the season in spite of how long it's been since a OVC team won a playoff game. I mean, they beat San Diego State by 40-19. They beat Southern Illinois on the road. And the most impressive effort of all may have been losing by only 43-39 to Northern Illinois. I mean, Northern Illinois gave Iowa its only loss so far of the season and beat Purdue 55-24.

As hard as it is you have to, I think, look at what a team has done THIS season so far. And this season so far Eastern Illinois has been impressive.

[89Hen]

The Big South may not have the history the SoCon has. But we are ranking them RIGHT NOW, now all-time or historical rankings. And in 2013 only, the Big South has shown it is far better than the SoCon. 7-1 speaks for itself.

The ACC is 2-2 vs the SEC this year, it's clear they are on par with them.

[JohnStOnge]

Coastal is not the 6th best team in the country, and Montana unequivocally belongs in the top 25.

They're close (26th).

[89Hen]

I know it's tough to disregard what's happened in the playoffs in previous years. That's why I thought Sam Houston State was going to get crushed by the first power conference team it played in 2011. It's because that's what had been happening to Southland teams even when they really dominated the conference like McNeese did in 2007.

But I don't see how one can not, for example, give an Eastern Illinois credit at this point of the season in spite of how long it's been since a OVC team won a playoff game. I mean, they beat San Diego State by 40-19. They beat Southern Illinois on the road. And the most impressive effort of all may have been losing by only 43-39 to Northern Illinois. I mean, Northern Illinois gave Iowa its only loss so far of the season and beat Purdue 55-24.

As hard as it is you have to, I think, look at what a team has done THIS season so far. And this season so far Eastern Illinois has been impressive.

Rankings are pretty much meaningless in I-AA. They will get their chance Thanksgiving weekend if they keep it up. You can't ignore the history of OVC teams being ranked highly but losing in the first round year after year after year. Not sure how many times you have to burn your hand before you stop grabbing the coals.

[JohnStOnge]

The Big South goes 7-1 vs the SoCon, and if not for a blocked field goal by Furman vs PC, they'd be 8-0. And the SoCon is rated higher???

If it's an average of the ratings it could be because the Big South has two teams rated lower than any Southern teams are (Presbyterian at 110 and VMI at 117). The lowest rated team in the Southern is at 101 (Elon). The Big South only has 6 teams so extreme values like 110 and 117 can have a substantial impact.

If you take the average rankings of the two conferences the Southern is rated higher (56.4 vs. 59.5). If you take the median rankings, which reflects no effect from extreme values and is therefore a better indicator of central tendency, the Big South is rated higher (47 vs. 52). Either way you'd say the two teams are close in terms of the strength of the "typical" team from each league.

[clenz]

This. Get used to it. Some teams are going to rise up in the ranks just as others fall. It's ok. Schools like AppState and Montana can't be at the top forever.

Exactly. When a UD falls, there's a JMU or Towson or Villanova or W&M or Richmond or UNH to take their place. When a Montana falls, there's an EWU or Montana State or Weber to take their place. When a UNI falls, there's an NDSU or SIU or YSU or SDSU to take their place. See, it's new teams all the time. However, some teams/conferences need to win post-season before I put them in my top 10. I don't know how many times a team like Jacksonville State, EKU, SCSt, etc... have to dupe the pollsters before they catch on.

Agreed.

It's why I struggled to take the OVC seriously - including EIU right now. The have some nice wins, but SIU and ISUr don't look all that great this year. ISUr is 1-3 with a loss to perennial last place team Missouri State, and SIU looked decent vs Illinois but not really since then. SIU seems to be a 5th or 6th place team in the MVFC and ISUr somewhere between 5 and 7.


That may not be fair to EIU right now, they look very good. However, the OVC is something like 0-21 in the playoffs since 1999.

The CAA, MVFC, SoCon (prior to this year), and Big Sky have proven every year there are multiple title contenders in each, even if the traditional top team isn't there.


That isn't saying that CCU and EIU aren't...it's saying there is a reason human pollsters may be slow to respect them.

[JohnStOnge]

Rankings are pretty much meaningless in I-AA. They will get their chance Thanksgiving weekend if they keep it up. You can't ignore the history of OVC teams being ranked highly but losing in the first round year after year after year. Not sure how many times you have to burn your hand before you stop grabbing the coals.

Rankings are a different thing. The purpose of a championship playoff isn't to identify the best team. It's to crown the last team standing as champion. And it's very possible that the last team standing isn't the best team. They pretty much have to be really good. But they don't have to be the best team.

[EWURanger]

I know the Big Sky has looked like complete crap so far this season, but no way should the OVC be ranked higher. That is a joke.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[89Hen]

Rankings are pretty much meaningless in I-AA. They will get their chance Thanksgiving weekend if they keep it up. You can't ignore the history of OVC teams being ranked highly but losing in the first round year after year after year. Not sure how many times you have to burn your hand before you stop grabbing the coals.

Rankings are a different thing. The purpose of a championship playoff isn't to identify the best team. It's to crown the last team standing as champion. And it's very possible that the last team standing isn't the best team. They pretty much have to be really good. But they don't have to be the best team.

I would prefer to crown the playoff winner as champion and best team than the best team according to a computer. By the time the NC is crowed, I guarantee they will have more wins against highly ranked opponents than anyone.