CAA Predictions Week 8

[BDKJMU]

Well, seeing as how there isn't a CAA prediction thread yet, figured I'd start one:

Game of the Week: UD (7-0/4-0) @ W&M 5-1/3-1: UD by 1-7 points.

JMU (4-2/1-2) @ Nova(4-2/2-1) 24-10 (assuming a Szczur who won’t be close to 100% plays (he may be more of a decoy). If he doesn’t, Nova 21-10. Well, before the season this was one of the 3 games I picked JMU to lose. If JMU wasn’t so banged up, I’d predict a close one. But with likely 7-8 starters out (from Aug), looks like slim chance for the Dukes.

UNH (4-3/2-2)-UMass (4-2/2-1)by 1-7. Before last Saturday, I would have picked UMass by a couple of TDs. Now after last week with UNH having a big win @ JMU and UMass laying an egg at home to a UR team playing their 4th string QB, I’m thinking this could go either way at I guess the neutral Gillette. Tossup. But I have to pick one of them, so I’ll take the team coming off a tough loss over the team coming off a big win.

Towson (1-5/0-3)@ Richmond (3-3/1-2) by 1-7 points. Towson has had an off week since giving JMU a scare. They only lost to UMass by 14 the prior week. They are improving. A Towson upset wouldn't surprise me here, as UR is using their what, 3rd or 4th string QB? UR's defense wins this one again for them.

Maine (2-5/1-3)@ URI (2-4/1-2) by 1-7 points

Across the board, this looks to be the most competitive week of the season so far in the CAA. Thing is, of the 5 losers I've picked, the only one that I've picked to lose by more than a TD, and the only one that would surprise me in winning, is JMU.

[93henfan]

Delaware 21, Wm & Mary 19
Villanova 24, JMU 13
Richmond 20, Towson 13
URI 20, Maine 17
UMass 23, New Hampshire 21
ODU 31, Ga State 17

[Mvemjsunpx]

Delaware @ W&M
JMU @ Nova
UNH vs. UMass
Towson @ Richmond
Maine @ URI

[bluehenbillk]

UD 23 W&M 21
VU 24 JMU 14
UMass 19 UNH 17
UR 16 TU 7
URI 27 Maine 20

[Col Hogan]

Maine at Rhode Island - Black Bears by a narrow margin
Delaware at William & Mary - The Tribe defense wins the game
Massachusetts at New Hampshire (Neutral Site) - Blind homerism
Towson at Richmond - The Spider defense stifles
James Madison at Villanova - I almost pushed on this one, it will be close

[SunCoastBlueHen]

Delaware 27, Wm & Mary 21 - I have a feeling the Devlin will have a big day.
JMU 14, Villanova 10 - I think the JMU defense rises to the challenge with their backs against the wall.
Richmond 10, Towson 7 - not overly sure about this game, but it should be a low scoring affair.
Maine 21, URI 17 - Improved URI squad keeps this one tight, but the bears pull it out late.
UMass 24, New Hampshire 14 - UNH has had a bit of a Jekyl and Hyde season thus far, so this one is hard to predict.
ODU ???, Ga State ??? - I'll care more about this game in the coming years.

[kdinva]

W&M 26, Delaware 24
Villanova 27, JMU 13
UMass 24, New Hampshire 17
Richmond 20, Towson 16
Maine 27, Rhode Island 24

[andy7171]

W&M 21, Delaware 13 - The Tribe hands Delaware their first L.
Villanova 17, JMU 10 - Hard to pick against Nova at home, and JMU is coming off two poor performances in a row
UMass 24, New Hampshire 21 - UMass takes care of business after a bad loss at home vs Richmond
Towson 24, Richmond 17 - Admiral Akbar said it best...IT'S A TRAP!!!
Maine 10, Rhode Island 9 - this game is a toss up to me, could go either way

[89Hen]

Delaware 31 - Wm & Mary 17
Villanova 28 - JMU 14
Richmond 17 - Towson 14
URI 24 - Maine 17
UMass 27 - New Hampshire 24
ODU 42 - Ga State 10

[State Line Liquors]

Maine at Rhode Island - URI spent alot of emotional bankroll in the loss last week.

Delaware at William & Mary - This game makes me nervous, but UD is DEEP.

Massachusetts at New Hampshire - programs headed in opposite directions at this juncture in the season

Towson at Richmond - Richmond gets a defensive TD that's the advantage

James Madison at Villanova - Defense wins championships, but you need a semblance of offense to be a CAA winner

[Fact]

This year's JMU team reminds me a lot of '08 UD

[GannonFan]

This year's JMU team reminds me a lot of '08 UD

I agree - just no playmakers on offense. I'm not sure JMU makes the playoffs, and that's even with a VA Tech win on the resume. Imagine that.

[State Line Liquors]

This year's JMU team reminds me a lot of '08 UD

I agree - just no playmakers on offense. I'm not sure JMU makes the playoffs, and that's even with a VA Tech win on the resume. Imagine that.

JMU is better both offensively and defensively than 2008 UD. JMU is 2nd in the conference in total defense, right now. They both struggle to put points on the board, and that's pretty much where the similarities end IMO.

JMU is in every football game they play because of that defense.

[Fact]

That Delaware team had a really good defense, especially given the fact that EVERYONE was getting injured.

[bluehenbillk]

That Delaware team had a really good defense, especially given the fact that EVERYONE was getting injured.

Well just wait a couple weeks until you see this year's edition.

[AppStateAlumQC]

Delaware @ W&M
JMU @ Villanova
UNH vs. UMass
Towson @ Richmond
Maine @ URI

[AZGrizFan]

Delaware @ W&M
JMU @ Villanova
UNH vs. UMass
Towson @ Richmond
Maine @ URI

You are correct sir!

[GannonFan]

I agree - just no playmakers on offense. I'm not sure JMU makes the playoffs, and that's even with a VA Tech win on the resume. Imagine that.

JMU is better both offensively and defensively than 2008 UD. JMU is 2nd in the conference in total defense, right now. They both struggle to put points on the board, and that's pretty much where the similarities end IMO.

JMU is in every football game they play because of that defense.

Why is JMU better on offense than that '08 UD team? Both didn't/don't have a quality QB (Dudzik is just no threat back there to throw or run), JMU's offensive line isn't dominant, and they don't throw the ball anyway so regardless of what they have at WR (which isn't much) it doesn't matter. They play great defense, but like UD's defense in '08, the longer the year drags on with the defense carrying all the burden, even a great defense can start to get tired and scored on. It could be a long stretch run for JMU's defense knowing they're playing by themselves out there every game.

[JMUDuke2002]

JMU is better both offensively and defensively than 2008 UD. JMU is 2nd in the conference in total defense, right now. They both struggle to put points on the board, and that's pretty much where the similarities end IMO.

JMU is in every football game they play because of that defense.

Why is JMU better on offense than that '08 UD team? Both didn't/don't have a quality QB (Dudzik is just no threat back there to throw or run), JMU's offensive line isn't dominant, and they don't throw the ball anyway so regardless of what they have at WR (which isn't much) it doesn't matter. They play great defense, but like UD's defense in '08, the longer the year drags on with the defense carrying all the burden, even a great defense can start to get tired and scored on. It could be a long stretch run for JMU's defense knowing they're playing by themselves out there every game.

The difference between the two in my mind is that after 6 games in '08, Delaware was 2-4, not 4-2 with a win over VA Tech and we beat UD by 34 while this year they beat us by 3. JMU's defense is better than UD's was in 08. The problem is offense, and we all know it. If JMU had their '08 offense with this defense, I'd be making my plans to go to Frisco right now. Unfortunately, I'm now planning on being at home through the playoffs cheering on another CAA team to win the title, well as long as it isn't Richmond.

BTW, just because I'll be at the game -- JMU 21 VU 13. If I wasn't going to the game, JMU 13 VU 21.

As for the rest:
Delaware @ W&M - WM is overrated, UD is not. This one won't even be close.
UNH vs. UMass - UNH is good and still playing for their playoff lives.
Towson @ Richmond - Towson is playing tough the past two weeks. Spiders are down. I TU pulls it out.
Maine @ URI - Battle of Future NEC champs. Maine's too tough.

[andy7171]

Holy crap!

[JMUDuke2002]

Holy crap!

I give respect where it is due. I really think TU may be turning the corner--I could be wrong. But they played UMass and JMU very tough. I think they are capable of beating a depleted Richmond.

[BDKJMU]

JMU is better both offensively and defensively than 2008 UD. JMU is 2nd in the conference in total defense, right now. They both struggle to put points on the board, and that's pretty much where the similarities end IMO.

JMU is in every football game they play because of that defense.

Why is JMU better on offense than that '08 UD team? Both didn't/don't have a quality QB (Dudzik is just no threat back there to throw or run), JMU's offensive line isn't dominant, and they don't throw the ball anyway so regardless of what they have at WR (which isn't much) it doesn't matter. They play great defense, but like UD's defense in '08, the longer the year drags on with the defense carrying all the burden, even a great defense can start to get tired and scored on. It could be a long stretch run for JMU's defense knowing they're playing by themselves out there every game.

Thats not true. As far as throwing, 1/2 the time he has someone in his face. And he is completing 52% of his passes (yeah, I know not very good) with 5 TDs, 6 INts. He did have the 2 TD runs vs VT, and he has displayed very good running capability going back to Montana in 08'. 4:35 mark of this video, 70 yard TD run:
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dudzik is an avg passer (maybe below avg for the CAA because so many good QBs, currently 7th in the CAA in pass efficiency, but avg for I-AA) and an above avg runner. Normally for JMU thats good enough. With the OL problems and injuries, its not.

[GannonFan]

Why is JMU better on offense than that '08 UD team? Both didn't/don't have a quality QB (Dudzik is just no threat back there to throw or run), JMU's offensive line isn't dominant, and they don't throw the ball anyway so regardless of what they have at WR (which isn't much) it doesn't matter. They play great defense, but like UD's defense in '08, the longer the year drags on with the defense carrying all the burden, even a great defense can start to get tired and scored on. It could be a long stretch run for JMU's defense knowing they're playing by themselves out there every game.

Thats not true. As far as throwing, 1/2 the time he has someone in his face. And he is completing 52% of his passes (yeah, I know not very good) with 5 TDs, 6 INts. He did have the 2 TD runs vs VT, and he has displayed very good running capability going back to Montana in 08'. 4:35 mark of this video, 70 yard TD run:
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dudzik is an avg passer (maybe below avg for the CAA because so many good QBs, currently 7th in the CAA in pass efficiency, but avg for I-AA) and an above avg runner. Normally for JMU thats good enough. With the OL problems and injuries, its not.

Dudzik's high water mark was that Montana game - no one knew anything about him, he came into a game where JMU was already well behind and likely to lose, and he helped make the game close. Since then, what has he done? I mean no disrespect to the guy, I'm sure he's a great kid, and he's certainly disadvantaged this year playing behind a less than great offensive line, but I don't see why he's anything other than average. He doesn't have a lot of arm strength, he completes a lot of check-down-type passes, and when he runs, unless he has gaping holes, he's not much of a threat. He's like a better Schoenhoft, but really, is that saying much?

[JMUDuke2002]

Thats not true. As far as throwing, 1/2 the time he has someone in his face. And he is completing 52% of his passes (yeah, I know not very good) with 5 TDs, 6 INts. He did have the 2 TD runs vs VT, and he has displayed very good running capability going back to Montana in 08'. 4:35 mark of this video, 70 yard TD run:
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dudzik is an avg passer (maybe below avg for the CAA because so many good QBs, currently 7th in the CAA in pass efficiency, but avg for I-AA) and an above avg runner. Normally for JMU thats good enough. With the OL problems and injuries, its not.

Dudzik's high water mark was that Montana game - no one knew anything about him, he came into a game where JMU was already well behind and likely to lose, and he helped make the game close. Since then, what has he done?

Well, he did beat VA Tech, but you're right that Montana game was his high water mark.

Actually, I'm hoping he'll play better over the last few weeks of his football career. I'm not optimistic but we'll see.

[State Line Liquors]

JMU is better both offensively and defensively than 2008 UD. JMU is 2nd in the conference in total defense, right now. They both struggle to put points on the board, and that's pretty much where the similarities end IMO.

JMU is in every football game they play because of that defense.

Why is JMU better on offense than that '08 UD team? Both didn't/don't have a quality QB (Dudzik is just no threat back there to throw or run), JMU's offensive line isn't dominant, and they don't throw the ball anyway so regardless of what they have at WR (which isn't much) it doesn't matter. They play great defense, but like UD's defense in '08, the longer the year drags on with the defense carrying all the burden, even a great defense can start to get tired and scored on. It could be a long stretch run for JMU's defense knowing they're playing by themselves out there every game.

JMU is at 4 wins already, and both of them were against 'ranked' opponents. They have 5 games left to play. We had 4 wins and all of them were against scrubs. I could probably pull up about 300 facts and figures identifying just how awful we were offensively.

GF, I really don't think this is something we should argue about. Regardless of whether or not Dudzik is good, he's actually a QB. We didn't even have one. The game down at UR that we played in 2008 was the worst offensive performance in the history of Delaware football.

Maybe we look back at Thanksgiving and I have a change of opinion. Based on what I'm seeing now from JMU and I what I know of 2008 at UD, it's really not even close. JMU is in the playoff hunt. We had been eliminated by this week in 2008.