My 2010 UNI game by game predictions/breakdown

[clenz]

I'm working on this right now. I'm going to go through every UNI game, give my thoughts on the game, series background, and give a prediction. I'm starting this now so that once I have the games done I can post them, instead of trying to save them (I'm at work right now) and get them to my computer at home.

I have the SFA game done, but won't post it until it's proper order in the line up. In Word the one is a page long, so these could be long.


09/11/10 vs. North Dakota State* UNI-Dome (Cedar Falls, Iowa) 4:05 p.m. CT
09/18/10 vs. Stephen F. Austin (Hall of Fame) UNI-Dome (Cedar Falls, Iowa) 4:05 p.m. CT
09/25/10 at Iowa State Ames, Iowa TBA
10/02/10 vs. South Dakota State* (Family Weekend) UNI-Dome (Cedar Falls, Iowa) 4:05 p.m. CT
10/09/10 at Southern Illinois* Carbondale, Ill. 2:00 p.m. CT
10/16/10 at South Dakota Vermillion, S.D. 4:05 p.m. CT
10/23/10 vs. Illinois State* (Homecoming) UNI-Dome (Cedar Falls, Iowa) 4:05 p.m. CT
10/30/10 at Youngstown State* Youngstown, Ohio 1:00 p.m. ET
11/06/10 at Indiana State* Terre Haute, Ind. 3:05 p.m. ET
11/13/10 vs. Missouri State* (Senior Day) UNI-Dome (Cedar Falls, Iowa) 4:05 p.m. CT
11/20/10 at Western Illinois* Macomb, Ill. 1:00 p.m. CT

[clenz]

09/11/10 vs. North Dakota State

Series History: UNI leads 24-18
10-18-08 – UNI 23 NDSU 13 – game at UNI
10-10-09 – UNI 42 NDSU 27 – game at NDSU
Last game played between the two before NDSU joined the MVFC, 1982.
Total points scored UNI 806 NDSU 682.

My thoughts:

Well, I hate the fact that we open the season with two byes, you know that already. The only thing worse than using both of your byes before the season actually starts is opening with a conference foe; not just a conference foe, but one who will have games played under their belt. Alas, that is what UNI is to deal with this year.

This is turning into a true, and heated, rivalry between the fan bases. These two teams go back to the 1930’s in terms of games, when both were part of the Division 2 North Central Conference and the Mid-Continent Conference.

UNI has really controlled the games the last two years. Statically the games may have been even (don’t remember off of the top of my head), but UNI dictated how the games played out the last two years.

This game is a bit of a mind-boggler for me. NDSU should have a good o-line this year, which should create a good running game. Their QB situation is still up in the air and unproven. How this new defense UNI runs plays against the run will be the key to this game. UNI is going with a 3-4 look this year. I’m not a huge fan of the 3-4, but it seems to be working elsewhere in the conference.

My prediction:

While NDSU may have an advantage on the ground I’m not convinced they can come back from a deficit because of their QB situation. If UNI is able to jump out to a 10-0 or 14-0 lead, and NDSU can’t throw the ball, this game will be over quickly. However, NDSU will likely be able to kill clock if they get out in front of any game this year.

UNI 27
NDSU 17


UNI 1-0 (1-0)

[clenz]

09/18/10 vs. Stephen F. Austin

Series History: UNI leads 5-2
9-2-95 – UNI 7 SFA 26 – game at SFA
9-14-96 – UNI 38 SFA 12 – game at UNI
9-26-98 - UNI 14 SFA 10 – game at SFA
9-23-00 – UNI 37 SFA 30 – game at UNI
9-21-02 – UNI 31 SFA 24 – game at UNI
9-18-03 – UNI 38 SFA 24 – game at SFA
9-18-04 – UNI 21 SFA 24 – game at UNI

Total points scored UNI 186 SFA 150.

My thoughts:

I’m not sure what to make of this game right now. To be honest I don’t know a whole lot about SFA outside of the fact they have a QB, Jeremy Moses, that was recently named one of the 10 best QB’s for 2010 in the FCS by The Sporting News. I know that they have gone from 0-11 in their coaches first year to making the quarterfinals last year. I also know that their team likes to go out and have a couple drinks before the game, see the photos from Red’s in Missoula before the afore mentioned quarterfinal game (ended in a 51-0 blowout loss). Honestly, that is where my knowledge of them ends.

I would think that if they have one of the best QB’s they have to have a decent o-line to protect him, and some decent targets to throw the ball at. Even the best QB’s can look like trash without a cast around them. Most years, the thought of going against a QB like this would scare me shitless leading up to the game. However, as of right now (granted it is still early, and teams just finished up spring camp) the I am not too scared of facing him. UNI has faced the best that the FCS has to offer over the past couple years: Flacco, Dieker, Santos, Shepard (if you don’t know the name learn it, the kid was impressive and rewrote USD’s record books). Most of them have had pretty damn good passing numbers against UNI. However, that was when we played this soft Tampa 2 zone and didn’t bring any heat. With the new defensive scheme that looks to be in place, the pass defense should be much improved. That and we return 6 LB’s that saw PT and 3 or 4 starters/players who saw significant PT in the CB/S roles.

My Prediction:
Jeremy Moses gets his yards, because that is what good QB’s do. However, I think the yards are kept below his season average. UNI’s blitz/coverage schemes are just enough of a wrinkle to force an INT or two and a couple errant throws. UNI’s offense does just enough to help the defense keep Moses off of the field.

UNI 28
SFA 24

UNI 2-0 (1-0)

[clenz]

09/25/10 at Iowa State

Series History: Iowa State leads 4-18-3
9-4-04 - UNI 0 ISU 23 – game at ISU
9-30-06 - UNI 27 ISU 28 – game at ISU
9-8-07 - UNI 24 ISU 13– game at ISU

My Thoughts:

I like this game for UNI. Iowa State isn’t a great program. UNI completely handled ISU in 2007. In 2006 The Panthers led 21-7 at the half. UNI led 27-21 after a 22-yard field
goal with only 2:20 remaining in the game. However, Iowa State drove 74 yards in six plays and scored to take a 28-27 lead with 1:05 to go. The Panthers then drove into Cyclone territory and with: 06 left in the game, Wingert’s 51-yard field goal missed wide left to let ISU escape, 28-27. Had that kick been 2 yards to the right UNI has won 2 straight against ISU.

Granted, from the looks of this ISU program under new coach Paul Rhoads they aren’t the same team they were. The won a bowl game last year and finished over .500. Even with that I’m not sure that Iowa State should be the clear favorite in this game. I’m sure to Vegas they will be because they are an FBS school taking on a FCS school. While ISU holds the all time series 4-18-3, UNI has had some more recent success against ISU winning 3 of the last 8 games against them. That may not sound impressive, but when it is an FCS vs. FBS (BCS conference team) it takes on a new meaning…even if that FBS team is ISU.

My prediction:

I would love to see a bye week before this game. I think if we get that we win. However Iowa State will be on their 4th game in 4 weeks, and this game is sandwiched between two B12 conference games for ISU. I doubt they look past UNI, but it very well could happen. If they look past UNI, the Panthers take it. I’m making my pick based on ISU won’t overlook UNI

UNI 17
ISU 20

UNI 2-1 (1-0)

[clenz]

10/02/10 vs. South Dakota State

Series History: UNI leads 25-17-2
9-16-06 - UNI 27 SDSU 17 - game at UNI
9-15-07 - UNI 31 SDSU 17 - game at SDSU
9-20-08 UNI 34 SDSU 20 - game at UNI
10-24-09 UNI 14 SDSU 24 - game at SDSU

My Thoughts:

Revenge is the first think that comes to mind for this game. SDSU took out UNI, and I think broke the Panthers spirits last year at Hobo Days in Brookings. The weather was crappy, the field was even worse (come on now, you are D1 now get a decent field. I played on high school fields in November after snow and sleet better than what you have up there). SDSU controlled the game, but I don’t believe the dominated the game. They forced UNI into some mistakes, but UNI really gave that game to SDSU with all the of the mental mistakes. UNI clearly didn’t want to be there, and SDSU took full advantage of it with a huge, drunk, and rowdy crowd.

I think this year is different. Talent wise SDSU isn’t better than UNI. The game will be in the dome. The weather will be perfect – 70 degrees with no wind, no precipitation, a perfect playing surface, and no drunk bunnies running around. Coach Farley isn’t happy with the performance against SDSU last year, and he wants to let them know about it this year. Assuming there is no hang over from the ISU game I fully expect UNI to do SDSU what they have 3 of the previous 4 years.

My prediction:

UNI 31
SDSU 17

[guinzone]

YSU fans are looking forward to the Northern Iowa game the most this season at home! With a new coaching staff in town, we are hoping that will be enough to get us over the UNI hump!

http://www.letsgoguins.com/component/po ... 010-season" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[JayJ79]

Well, I hate the fact that we open the season with two byes

Two byes?!?
is that a dig on NDSU? Sure, we've owned them since they've joined the conference, but I'd hardly call it a "bye".


I know the "FCS Schedules" posted here all start with Aug. 28th, but there are zero FCS teams playing that week, and I'm pretty sure the official start of the season isn't until Sept. 4th this year (or at least the week of Sept. 4th, as there are some games played on 9/2 or 9/3). So we really only have one bye week to start the season. But yes, that still sucks.

[89Hen]

Clenz, we get it. UNI is going 10-1 and winning the NC.

[clenz]

Clenz, we get it. UNI is going 10-1 and winning the NC.

Um...no...wait until I finish.

[guinzone]

Clenz, we get it. UNI is going 10-1 and winning the NC.

Um...no...wait until I finish.

Yeah 9-2 with your first loss to YSU in a decade.

[grizzaholic]

Clenz, we get it. UNI is going 10-1 and winning the NC.

Clenz, good looking breakdown so far.


89Hen,

[clenz]

10/09/10 at Southern Illinois

Series History: UNI leads 15-13
11-11-06 UNI 23 SIU 47 - game at SIU
10-13-07 UNI 30 SIU 24 - game at UNI
9-27-08 UNI 24 SIU 27 - game at SIU
10-17-09 UNI 20 SIU 27 - game at UNI
Home team won every game from 1997-2008. SIU first road team to win a game in 2009.

My thoughts:

I hope the home team loses this year as well, obviously. I can’t put into words my dislike for SIU in any sport. Since 1997 only 4 times have games been decided by more than one score (1999, 2000, 2002, and 2006). SIU opens their new stadium this year, so maybe the bad mojo from that old dump is gone. I want to win this game so badly I can’t express it enough. However, so does SIU. This game will be their homecoming this year, couple that with being in the new stadium and that place is going to be f****** rocking! The thing that helps UNI this year is that we are tucked into what looks like a tough 4 game stretch, @YSU, @ISUR, UNI, SDSU.

The Flying Egyptian Baby Eating Dogs return 4 all conference performers on offense, and 3 on defense. One of the defenders, Korey Lindsey, might be the best returning player in the conference. For all that SIU brings back, they lost a WHOLE lot from last year. With Deji being gone from that SIU offense, I can’t see SIU’s run game being as efficient. I know McIntosh had good numbers last year, but I can’t see them being that good with him being the feature back. This will put the game on Dieker’s arm. Hopefully UNI can bring pressure from the edge.

My Prediction:
UNI 20
SIU 24

UNI 3-2 (2-1)

[Thumper 76]

10/02/10 vs. South Dakota State

Series History: UNI leads 25-17-2
9-16-06 - UNI 27 SDSU 17 - game at UNI
9-15-07 - UNI 31 SDSU 17 - game at SDSU
9-20-08 UNI 34 SDSU 20 - game at UNI
10-24-09 UNI 14 SDSU 24 - game at SDSU

My Thoughts:

Revenge is the first think that comes to mind for this game. SDSU took out UNI, and I think broke the Panthers spirits last year at Hobo Days in Brookings. The weather was crappy, the field was even worse (come on now, you are D1 now get a decent field. I played on high school fields in November after snow and sleet better than what you have up there). SDSU controlled the game, but I don’t believe the dominated the game. They forced UNI into some mistakes, but UNI really gave that game to SDSU with all the of the mental mistakes. UNI clearly didn’t want to be there, and SDSU took full advantage of it with a huge, drunk, and rowdy crowd.

I think this year is different. Talent wise SDSU isn’t better than UNI. The game will be in the dome. The weather will be perfect – 70 degrees with no wind, no precipitation, a perfect playing surface, and no drunk bunnies running around. Coach Farley isn’t happy with the performance against SDSU last year, and he wants to let them know about it this year. Assuming there is no hang over from the ISU game I fully expect UNI to do SDSU what they have 3 of the previous 4 years.

My prediction:

UNI 31
SDSU 17

I like how you blame the field, fans and UNI beating themselves for losing, and how it had nothing to do with the actual SDSU TEAM that beat your asses last year. Very Bisonesque of you.

But I won't argue against your prediction too much because historically we do SUCK DICK at the UNI dome, regardless of how good our team is. Personally I think this is going to be fixed this year, but even if its not I doubt it will be a blowout like you predict, but this is your prediciton thread not mine so I won't judge.

[Thumper 76]

Clenz, we get it. UNI is going 10-1 and winning the NC.

Can't blame a fan of a good team for thinking they should win most if not all of their games on their schedule.

[clenz]

10/02/10 vs. South Dakota State

Series History: UNI leads 25-17-2
9-16-06 - UNI 27 SDSU 17 - game at UNI
9-15-07 - UNI 31 SDSU 17 - game at SDSU
9-20-08 UNI 34 SDSU 20 - game at UNI
10-24-09 UNI 14 SDSU 24 - game at SDSU

My Thoughts:

Revenge is the first think that comes to mind for this game. SDSU took out UNI, and I think broke the Panthers spirits last year at Hobo Days in Brookings. The weather was crappy, the field was even worse (come on now, you are D1 now get a decent field. I played on high school fields in November after snow and sleet better than what you have up there). SDSU controlled the game, but I don’t believe the dominated the game. They forced UNI into some mistakes, but UNI really gave that game to SDSU with all the of the mental mistakes. UNI clearly didn’t want to be there, and SDSU took full advantage of it with a huge, drunk, and rowdy crowd.

I think this year is different. Talent wise SDSU isn’t better than UNI. The game will be in the dome. The weather will be perfect – 70 degrees with no wind, no precipitation, a perfect playing surface, and no drunk bunnies running around. Coach Farley isn’t happy with the performance against SDSU last year, and he wants to let them know about it this year. Assuming there is no hang over from the ISU game I fully expect UNI to do SDSU what they have 3 of the previous 4 years.

My prediction:

UNI 31
SDSU 17

I like how you blame the field, fans and UNI beating themselves for losing, and how it had nothing to do with the actual SDSU TEAM that beat your asses last year. Very Bisonesque of you.

But I won't argue against your prediction too much because historically we do SUCK DICK at the UNI dome, regardless of how good our team is. Personally I think this is going to be fixed this year, but even if its not I doubt it will be a blowout like you predict, but this is your prediciton thread not mine so I won't judge.

If that is the way it came off I apologize. SDSU was the better team that day. You came out, put a quick stop to UNI and along with a combination of the weather/conditions, SDSU as a team, and the crazy atmosphere put a quick end to any real chance we had that game. Yes, I do feel the conditions of the field played a factor in the out come of the game. Yes, both teams played on them. However, SDSU was used to the footing as they play on grass much more than UNI does. Just the same that the old astro-turf that the UNIDome had played a home field advantage to UNI most times. That said, I don't believe that is what cost UNI the game. UNI cost UNI the game. We were a mentally weak team last year. Look at all the talent we had and look how we finished the season. That game was the perfect storm, to use the cliche, to put UNI away. Yet as badly as UNI played we were still there until the end of the game. SDSU clearly had more heart for the game, but UNI had more talent which is what kept us in the game.

[clenz]

It also seems you skipped the second half of the first paragraph.

"SDSU controlled the game, but I don’t believe the dominated the game. They forced UNI into some mistakes, but UNI really gave that game to SDSU with all the of the mental mistakes. UNI clearly didn’t want to be there, and SDSU took full advantage of it with a huge, drunk, and rowdy crowd."

I said SDSU controlled the game. SDSU forced UNI to make some of the mistakes that they did. That caused UNI to beat themselves later in the game.

[clenz]

Also, I'm working on getting the rest of the season done. I should have them all up by noon tomorrow.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I would think that if they have one of the best QB’s they have to have a decent o-line to protect him, and some decent targets to throw the ball at. Even the best QB’s can look like trash without a cast around them. Most years, the thought of going against a QB like this would scare me shitless leading up to the game. However, as of right now (granted it is still early, and teams just finished up spring camp) the I am not too scared of facing him. UNI has faced the best that the FCS has to offer over the past couple years: Flacco, Meyer, Dieker, Santos, Shepard (if you don’t know the name learn it, the kid was impressive and rewrote USD’s record books). Most of them have had pretty damn good passing numbers against UNI. However, that was when we played this soft Tampa 2 zone and didn’t bring any heat. With the new defensive scheme that looks to be in place, the pass defense should be much improved. That and we return 6 LB’s that saw PT and 3 or 4 starters/players who saw significant PT in the CB/S roles.

FIFY.

[Thumper 76]

It also seems you skipped the second half of the first paragraph.

"SDSU controlled the game, but I don’t believe the dominated the game. They forced UNI into some mistakes, but UNI really gave that game to SDSU with all the of the mental mistakes. UNI clearly didn’t want to be there, and SDSU took full advantage of it with a huge, drunk, and rowdy crowd."

I said SDSU controlled the game. SDSU forced UNI to make some of the mistakes that they did. That caused UNI to beat themselves later in the game.

Sorry I got pissy bout that Just a bit touchy when people say stuff like that since we get it all the time from those jack-offs from up north and from all the Minnesota pricks last year. Good write ups by the way, putting some good work into them.

[i_got_a_fever]

It also seems you skipped the second half of the first paragraph.

"SDSU controlled the game, but I don’t believe the dominated the game. They forced UNI into some mistakes, but UNI really gave that game to SDSU with all the of the mental mistakes. UNI clearly didn’t want to be there, and SDSU took full advantage of it with a huge, drunk, and rowdy crowd."

I said SDSU controlled the game. SDSU forced UNI to make some of the mistakes that they did. That caused UNI to beat themselves later in the game.

Sorry I got pissy bout that Just a bit touchy when people say stuff like that since we get it all the time from those jack-offs from up north and from all the Minnesota pricks last year. Good write ups by the way, putting some good work into them.

I was about ready to flip out as well, I am getting so tired of the we beat ourselves BS that every team in the country uses when they lose to us, especially from ndsu, Georgia Southern, Minnesota, some UNI fans. It's just stupid. People just can't except that we just happen to be a much better team now in FCS then we ever were in DII. People can't except that we happen to defend our home field very well. It's just getting old.

[SDHornet]

I started working on something similar this week for Sac State that I will post on SacBuzz sometime before the season starts. Good read clenz.

[clenz]

10/16/10 at South Dakota

Series History: UNI leads 23-17-1
9-6-08 UNI 24 USD 13 - game at UNI
9-12-09 UNI 66 USD 7 – game at UNI
Previous game before 2008 was 1982.

My Thoughts:
This is the return game in the 2-1 OOC schedule for these two. I wouldn’t be shocked to see UNI and USD play each other again in the future, but not until USD improves as a program. This is also another renewal of an old D2 North Central Conference rivalry, both teams were NCC from 1935-1977 (UNI’s years in the NCC).

Last year’s game was a complete waste of time to be honest. USD scored on their first play, a flea flicker of 70 yards, and then was shut down (only had 200 yards in the game). UNI scored 66 straight points to end the game, including 45 straight to end the first half. Pat Grace through for 445 yards - in the first half.

I don’t expect this year’s game to get that out of hand. UNI was on a complete steam roll early in the year last year. This game is also at USD, which should help USD some, but not enough. Without Noah Shepard I don’t know what USD’s offense will be able to do next season. Looking at the team awards they gave out they all seemingly went to seniors. I don’t know if that is just the way it is, or if they really were a senior laden team.

My Prediction:
This is a trap game for UNI. The week after the ISU, SDSU, and SIU set and the week before a revenge game, and homecoming, against Illinois State. Assuming there is no mental let down UNI should walk away with this one.

UNI 45
USD 17


UNI 4-2 (2-1)

[clenz]

10/23/10 vs. Illinois State (Homecoming)

Series History: UNI leads 17-9
11-18-06 UNI 38 ISUR 13 - game at UNI
9-29-09 UNI 23 ISUR 13 - game at ISUR
10-11-08 UNI 31 ISUR 17 - game at UNI
11-21-09 UNI 20 ISUR 22 - game at ISUR

My Thoughts:
This is the last revenge game of the season, and I think the players returning from last year will want this one the most of all the games. Last year’s final week loss cost UNI a birth in the playoffs. That loss put UNI at 7-4 instead of 8-3, and many believed an 8-3 UNI team was a lock. Sadly UNI decided not to show up for the last game of the season until late in the fourth quarter, then decided not to show up for the minute and let ISUR drive down the field. ISUR wanted that game more, even though they really had nothing to play for outside of keeping UNI out of the playoffs and their own pride. On top of all of that this is homecoming at UNI.

On the flip side ISUR does return some pretty impressive numbers from last season:
Yards .................................................... 88.5%
All-Purpose Yards ............................... 50.6%
Rushing Yards .................................... 60.4%
Passing Yards ................................... 100.0%
Receiving Yards .................................. 51.7%
Tackles ................................................. 70.1%
Sacks ................................................... 36.0%
Interceptions ....................................... 64.3%


My Prediction:
UNI on homecoming is too much for the birds

UNI 28
ISUR20

[clenz]

10/30/10 at Youngstown State
Series History: UNI leads 18-6
10-21-06 UNI 31 YSU 23 - game at YSU
10-27-07 UNI 14- YSU 13 - game at UNI
10-25-08 UNI21 YSU 20 - game at YSU
11-7-09 UNI 28 YSU 7 - game at UNI

My Thoughts:
YSU hasn’t beaten UNI since the year 2000. I believe Cap’n may still have had hair at that point. There have been some close games the past couple years. It took a 14 point 4th quarter in 2007 to beat YSU, and a freshman making a start on the road, along with some luck to beat them again in 2008. Last year things returned to normal with UNI winning by a more comfortable margine.

YSU has to win one of these games soon. The new staff at YSU seems to have the fan base as excited as they have been in a long time. The thing that worries me about this game is the time of kick off. It is a noon kick off in the Central Time zone. UNI is used to late afternoon kick offs. This seems like a minor thing, and it may be just a minor thing. However, athletes have routines. If players are used to a late afternoon kicks off and then a noon game comes up 700 miles away, and 3.5 states away, that rhythm is really messed with.

My prediction:
UNI 27
YSU 20

[clenz]

11/06/10 at Indiana State

Series History: UNI leads 22-4
10-14-06 UNI 34 ISUB 14 - game at ISUB
11-10-07 UNI 68 ISUB 14 - game at UNI
11-15-08 UNI 28 ISUB 0 - game at ISUB
10-3-09 UNI 62 ISUB 7 - game at UNI

My Thoughts:
Indiana State needs some help in so many areas it isn’t really funny anymore. I pull for them every week they don’t play UNI. I think they are making strides in the right direction, however small they might be. UNI owns ISUB, then again so do many schools. UNI has outscored ISUB 841-404 in the series history, and hasn’t beaten UNI since 2002. Before 2002 their only other wins against UNI came in 1990, 1988, and 1983. Heck, outside of those 4 wins ISUB hasn’t even been close to beating UNI. Only 6 times has the UNI/ISUB game been within one score – in 2003UNI won by 8, in 1998 UNI won by 3, 1997 UNI won by 8, 1994 UNI won by 1, 1993 won by 7, and 1989 was a 3 point game. The average score of these games is 33-15 in favor of UNI.

On the plus side for ISUB, the game is in Indiana this year.

My Prediction:
UNI 48
ISUB 7


UNI 7-2 (5-1)