Baker's Dozen - 13 games that have most playoff implication

[dbackjon]

Below I detail the 13 games I think have the most chance of having playoff implications.

Note - I purposefully have omitted games that should be no contest - like SIU @ Indiana State, etc.


The games listed are in no particular order...

1) Montana - Weber State:
Why important - Montana playing for BSC crown, seed. Weber still has shot at title, needs this for at- large credentials.

2) Stephen F. Austin @ Texas State
Why important - Both teams still have shot at SLC crown, SFA playing for home game. With loss, Texas State can hang up the season.

3) South Dakota State @ Youngstown State
Why important - Both teams still in auto-bid hunt. SDSU needs to avoid let down before SIU game. YSU needs to win out for serious at-large consideration.

4) App State @ Furman
Why important - Furman needs this to remain in playoff eligibility. Lose this, and at Auburn the following week, and another Purple team sits home. A loss here, and @ Elon in two weeks and App could be home as well.

5) UMass @ Maine
Why important -Lose here, and UMass becomes a long shot for the playoffs.

6) Albany @ Central Connecticut State
Why important - Winner in driver's seat for NEC crown, keeps faint at-large hopes alive. Loser can achieve neither.

7) Lehigh @ Colgate
Why important - Can Colgate right the ship? Lehigh is ahead of Colgate in the PL standings, both can still win the auto-bid. Lehigh has to win out to get to the playoffs.

8) Morgan State @ FAMU
Why important - Loser drops any hope of playoffs - slim chance of winning MEAC, no shot at at-large.

9) UC-Davis @ Southern Utah
Why important - Davis needs this to remain in contention for at-large. SUU is looking for a winning season and respect

10) Holy Cross @ Fordham
Why important - Holy Cross can't let down after beating Colgate. After Fordham, HC has Lehigh and Lafayette.

11) Illinois State @ Missouri State
Why important - Missouri State is looking for first winning season in a while, and holds out playoff hopes with a run to end season.

12) Elon @ Wofford
Why important - Elon can't afford to overlook the Terriers - if they do, any hope of a seed is gone.

13) Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State
Why important - NAU needs this win to stay alive in BSC and at-large consideration. Lose, and they are done.

[SDHornet]

9) UC-Davis @ Southern Utah
Why important - Davis needs this to remain in contention for auto-bid. SUU is looking for a winning season and respect

Does the Great West receive an auto-bid? I always thought they were a conference member short of meeting the requirement.

13) Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State
Why important - NAU needs this win to stay alive in BSC and at-large consideration. Lose, and they are done.

If Sac State comes out and plays hard, this could be a very good game. Looking at the season totals, both defenses have struggled against the pass. This could very well turn into a shoot out. Also NAU will be looking to avoid another season ending slump.

[native]

...

1) Montana - Weber State:
Why important - Montana playing for BSC crown, seed. Weber still has shot at title, needs this for at- large credentials.

9) UC-Davis @ Southern Utah
Why important - Davis needs this to remain in contention for auto-bid. SUU is looking for a winning season and respect...

Nice thread concept!

Corrections:

1) With a win, Weber earns a great deal more than at-large credentials. It earns first place in the BSC title race with only one conference game left to play.

9) No team from the Great West, including UCD, is in contention for the auto bid. By winning out, Davis has a remote chance at an at-large invitation.

[Mvemjsunpx]

This week is severely lacking in marquee games.

[AZGrizFan]

This week is severely lacking in marquee games.

Seriously? I think the first four games listed in Jon's analysis are HUGE....and having FOUR huge games is more than most weekends.

[Mvemjsunpx]

This week is severely lacking in marquee games.

Seriously? I think the first four games listed in Jon's analysis are HUGE....and having FOUR huge games is more than most weekends.

In each of those games—except UM/Weber, which is without question the game of the week—one team is a clear favorite over their opponent. An upset is possible in those games, but pretty unlikely. The possibility of Furman, YSU, or Texas State making the playoffs looks pretty remote given how they've played.

UM/Weber is the only top-25 battle of the week and none of the other games involving top-25 teams look like real tossups. To me, the second (albeit distant second) most interesting game of the week is Albany/CCSU, but that doesn't have much in the way of playoff implications.

[dbackjon]

Brain Fart on Great West - this is what happens when you do this late...

[dbackjon]

In the three that you are dismissing, the favorite is on the road - which can be a great equalizer.

[SunCoastBlueHen]

Jon,

Did you omit JMU @ UD because you think the game will not be competitive, or because you think Delaware does not have a legit shot at making the playoffs?

[andy7171]

Jon,

Did you omit JMU @ UD because you think the game will not be competitive, or because you think Delaware does not have a legit shot at making the playoffs?

Pretty sure he only allows himself to include one CAA game. The anti East Coast Bias.

[dbackjon]

Scbh. Not competitive

[mcveyrl]

Scbh. Not competitive

Do you think NAU @ Sac. St. will be competitive?

[dbackjon]

Scbh. Not competitive

Do you think NAU @ Sac. St. will be competitive?

More competitive than JMU without dudzik

[mcveyrl]

Do you think NAU @ Sac. St. will be competitive?

More competitive than JMU without dudzik

We still play defense.

What about Elon @ Wofford? Which, by the way, is not nearly as important from a "getting in" standpoint as JMU-UD since the Hens have to sweep Navy and Nova if they lose this one.

[JMU DJ]

More competitive than JMU without dudzik

We still play defense.

What about Elon @ Wofford? Which, by the way, is not nearly as important from a "getting in" standpoint as JMU-UD since the Hens have to sweep Navy and Nova if they lose this one.

Well you see, every game is a big game when it comes to playoff implications for NAU as they will most likely lose two of their last three games. So they really need to win this one order to stay in any sort of contention. Don't try to bring logic into this by pointing out that Wofford stinks too and that Sac St has the same record as JMU with a worse defense. Shame on you McV. Shame.

[dbackjon]

We still play defense.

What about Elon @ Wofford? Which, by the way, is not nearly as important from a "getting in" standpoint as JMU-UD since the Hens have to sweep Navy and Nova if they lose this one.

Well you see, every game is a big game when it comes to playoff implications for NAU as they will most likely lose two of their last three games. So they really need to win this one order to stay in any sort of contention. Don't try to bring logic into this by pointing out that Wofford stinks too and that Sac St has the same record as JMU with a worse defense. Shame on you McV. Shame.

It's my list, dammit!!

[Chizzang]

In the three that you are dismissing, the favorite is on the road - which can be a great equalizer.

BINGO..!!!!

[dbackjon]

All times Arizona

1) Montana - Weber State: Game Time Noon

2) Stephen F. Austin @ Texas State: Game Time Noon

3) South Dakota State @ Youngstown State: Game Time 1:00

4) App State @ Furman - 35-13 at the half. ASU dominating

5) UMass @ Maine - Game Time 12:30

6) Albany @ Central Connecticut State - 23-14 Albany at the Half

7) Lehigh @ Colgate - Lehigh up 10-7 in the first

8) Morgan State @ FAMU - Game Time 1:00 PM

9) UC-Davis @ Southern Utah - Game Time Noon

10) Holy Cross @ Fordham - 14-3 HC in the first

11) Illinois State @ Missouri State - Game Time 11 am

12) Elon @ Wofford - underway

13) Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State - Game Time 2:05

[Col Hogan]

Jon,

Did you omit JMU @ UD because you think the game will not be competitive, or because you think Delaware does not have a legit shot at making the playoffs?

Scbh. Not competitive

I know hindsight is 20/20...but I think you blew this one, jon...no pun intended...

[dbackjon]

Well, I got the non-competitive part right...

[dbackjon]

1) Montana - Weber State: 20-3 Montana - 3rd

2) Stephen F. Austin @ Texas State: 14-7 Texas State - Half

3) South Dakota State @ Youngstown State: 3-3 2nd

4) App State @ Furman - 52-27 FINAL

5) UMass @ Maine - 10-7 Maine Half

6) Albany @ Central Connecticut State - CCSU 31, Albany 29 FINAL

7) Lehigh @ Colgate - Colgate 27-20 - FINAL

8) Morgan State @ FAMU - 14-14 HALF

9) UC-Davis @ Southern Utah - 49-21 3rd

10) Holy Cross @ Fordham - 41-27 HC

11) Illinois State @ Missouri State - 24-14 Illinois State

12) Elon @ Wofford -34-6 Elon

13) Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State - Game Time 2:05

[CatMom]

An upset is possible in those games, but pretty unlikely. The possibility of Furman, YSU, or Texas State making the playoffs looks pretty remote given how they've played.

We live to mystify our minions another week. Our D looked like someone borrowed it from somewhere else. This was a new, improved, fired up, bend don't break D that showed up to today.

[CatMom]

1) Montana - Weber State: 20-3 Montana - 3rd

2) Stephen F. Austin @ Texas State: 28-7 Texas State - FINAL!!!!

3) South Dakota State @ Youngstown State: 3-3 2nd

4) App State @ Furman - 52-27 FINAL

5) UMass @ Maine - 10-7 Maine Half

6) Albany @ Central Connecticut State - CCSU 31, Albany 29 FINAL

7) Lehigh @ Colgate - Colgate 27-20 - FINAL

8) Morgan State @ FAMU - 14-14 HALF

9) UC-Davis @ Southern Utah - 49-21 3rd

10) Holy Cross @ Fordham - 41-27 HC

11) Illinois State @ Missouri State - 24-14 Illinois State

12) Elon @ Wofford -34-6 Elon

13) Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State - Game Time 2:05

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Do you think NAU @ Sac. St. will be competitive?

More competitive than JMU without dudzik