Playoff Picture as of Right Now....

[SloStang]

If Cal Poly wins out they would finish at 6-2 in the Big Sky with a win over #3 EWU. Their two conference losses would be to #12 ranked Montana on the road in OT and a 3 point loss to #14 ranked NAU. Unfortunately Cal Poly's overall record would be 7-5, but it is against an all DI schedule an included two FBS games (Fresno State and Colorado State). Cal Poly's only bad loss is to Yale. They would more than likely be left out, but an argument could be made for them. They would have the 7 DI wins required, a good conference record in a top FCS conference and a win against a top 5 team.

[AZGrizFan]

SH, you may want to do some more homework.

Yeah, Ga. Southern shouldn't have even been listed. Coastal/Chas. So. is still undecided and even then, as much as I hate to say it, don't expect either to advance very far.

Pioneer, two teams...HAHAHAHA. Don't make me laugh.

SC State - See Ga Southern. They shouldn't have been listed.

Not to mention SWAC doesn't even play in the playoffs.

[AZGrizFan]

If Cal Poly wins out they would finish at 6-2 in the Big Sky with a win over #3 EWU. Their two conference losses would be to #12 ranked Montana on the road in OT and a 3 point loss to #14 ranked NAU. Unfortunately Cal Poly's overall record would be 7-5, but it is against an all DI schedule an included two FBS games (Fresno State and Colorado State). Cal Poly's only bad loss is to Yale. They would more than likely be left out, but an argument could be made for them. They would have the 7 DI wins required, a good conference record in a top FCS conference and a win against a top 5 team.

Well if they get left out you can blame your AD.

[Ibanez]

Yeah, Ga. Southern shouldn't have even been listed. Coastal/Chas. So. is still undecided and even then, as much as I hate to say it, don't expect either to advance very far.

Pioneer, two teams...HAHAHAHA. Don't make me laugh.

SC State - See Ga Southern. They shouldn't have been listed.

Not to mention SWAC doesn't even play in the playoffs.

I didn't even see that Conference. Did he really include them?

[Ibanez]

SWAC

Jackson State - Probable. Must win out. Alcorn State could play spoiler.
AL State - Possible. Must win out AND hope Alcorn State upsets Jackson State.
Alcorn State - Out. Must win out and hope AL State loses twice.
Southern - Out. Committed to Bayou Classic vs. Grambling State 11/30.
Prairie View A&M - Out. Three or more conference losses in SWAC doesn't cut it.

Damn dude.

[Grizalltheway]

SWAC

Jackson State - Probable. Must win out. Alcorn State could play spoiler.
AL State - Possible. Must win out AND hope Alcorn State upsets Jackson State.
Alcorn State - Out. Must win out and hope AL State loses twice.
Southern - Out. Committed to Bayou Classic vs. Grambling State 11/30.
Prairie View A&M - Out. Three or more conference losses in SWAC doesn't cut it.

Damn dude.

Yeah, I totally missed that until now, too. I don't know if there's any fixing that kind of stupid.

[Ibanez]

Damn dude.

Yeah, I totally missed that until now, too. I don't know if there's any fixing that kind of stupid.

[AZGrizFan]

Yeah, I totally missed that until now, too. I don't know if there's any fixing that kind of stupid.

And not to mention he completely ripped off my post from 3 days earlier in starting this thread in the first place.

[AZGrizFan]

SWAC

Jackson State - Probable. Must win out. Alcorn State could play spoiler.
AL State - Possible. Must win out AND hope Alcorn State upsets Jackson State.
Alcorn State - Out. Must win out and hope AL State loses twice.
Southern - Out. Committed to Bayou Classic vs. Grambling State 11/30.
Prairie View A&M - Out. Three or more conference losses in SWAC doesn't cut it.

Damn dude.

And, does the Pioneer Football conference have an autobid?

[Ibanez]

And not to mention he completely ripped off my post from 3 days earlier in starting this thread in the first place.

Monkey see, monkey do.

[dbackjon]

Damn dude.

And, does the Pioneer Football conference have an autobid?

Pioneer - yes

[dal4018]

Tennessee St defenders have not shown up the past two weekends and the starting QB German is out with a major injury better hope he along with the defense make a recovery if the Tigers are to win the OVC and make noise in the playoffs

There's no way they're gonna win the OVC (EIU basically has that sewn up). They need to turn things around in a hurry to get an at-large bid.

Agreed they need German and the defense to make a quick recovery Butler is getting smoked!!!!

[dal4018]

And, does the Pioneer Football conference have an autobid?

Pioneer - yes

The SWAC gave up their auto bid a full decade ago.

[89Hen]

And, does the Pioneer Football conference have an autobid?

Pioneer - yes

[CPAlum]

If Cal Poly wins out they would finish at 6-2 in the Big Sky with a win over #3 EWU. Their two conference losses would be to #12 ranked Montana on the road in OT and a 3 point loss to #14 ranked NAU. Unfortunately Cal Poly's overall record would be 7-5, but it is against an all DI schedule an included two FBS games (Fresno State and Colorado State). Cal Poly's only bad loss is to Yale. They would more than likely be left out, but an argument could be made for them. They would have the 7 DI wins required, a good conference record in a top FCS conference and a win against a top 5 team.

My bet is that if....big if......they win out they would get in. It would be nice to see them win out even if they didn't make it. To me the biggest disappointment for the year is that Cal Poly's defense is pretty outstanding. They have talent....it just hasn't been their year. Last year the schedule and the ball bounced their way. This year the schedule and the ball got away from them

[93henfan]

Leave They alone. Bullies.

[Ibanez]

I'm suprised SH didn't call AppState and GaSouth probably contenders or sleeper teams.

[89Hen]

I'm too lazy to find it, but surely somebody must have done a quick synopsis of who is left?

[grizzaholic]

I'm too lazy to find it, but surely somebody must have done a quick synopsis of who is left?

Delaware is out.

[89Hen]

These are the realistic teams as far as I can see...

Big Sky
Eastern Washington 9-2
Northern Arizona 8-2
Montana 9-2
Southern Utah 8-3
Montana State 7-4

Big South
Coastal Carolina 10-1
Charleston Southern 10-2

CAA
Maine 10-1
Towson 9-2
New Hampshire 6-4
Delaware 7-4
William & Mary 7-4

MEAC
Bethune-Cookman 9-2
South Carolina State 8-3

MVFC
North Dakota State 10-0
Youngstown State 8-3
South Dakota State 7-4

NEC
Only the auto, don't care who it is

OVC
Eastern Illinois 10-1
Tennessee State 9-3
(JSU can also get to 9-3 but lost to TSU so they are done)

Patriot
Lehigh 8-2/Lafayette 4-6 winner
Fordham 10-1

Pioneer
Only the auto, don't care who it is

Southern
Chattanooga 8-3
Samford 7-4

Southland
Southeastern Louisiana 9-2
McNeese State 9-2
Sam Houston State 8-3

So that's 28 teams right there for 24 spots. If you are a bubble team, you are rooting for:

NAU > SUU
Montana > Montana State
Villanova > Delaware
Maine > UNH
Richmond > W&M
YSU > SDSU
Elon > Samford
Norfolk > SCSt

[vutomcat]

[quote{
For the peanut gallery: do you know of anyone with enough historical rep and on enough of a current roll to get an at-large at 7-5? I presume, as per usual, that barring an AQ, a 6-win record, while technically "eligible," won't be anywhere near enough to get it done.[/quote]


Both Villanova and Northern Iowa fit this description and have a small chance to get in with impressive wins this week and a lot of help from teams also under consideration. Both teams SOS is very high - top 10 in SRS.

[89Hen]

These are the realistic teams as far as I can see...

[vutomcat]

These are the realistic teams as far as I can see...

I see 6 teams on this list with 4 losses. That makes them potential 5 loss teams with a loss this weekend. By process of elimination, if that happens, I mean if at least 5 of them lose won't a 5 loss team make the playoffs? None of them are playing each other...

A few of these 4 loss teams like SDSU, Delaware, UNH and Montana State will be going into their games as underdogs. So, I remain hopeful with an upset or two one or two teams with 5 losses will at least be considered and if that's the case I think Nova has as strong a resume as any 5 loss team.

Unless your list is missing some contenders, but it looks pretty comprehensive to me. thanks for putting it together.

[89Hen]

I see 6 teams on this list with 4 losses. That makes them potential 5 loss teams with a loss this weekend. By process of elimination, if that happens, I mean if at least 5 of them lose won't a 5 loss team make the playoffs? None of them are playing each other...

A few of these 4 loss teams like SDSU, Delaware, UNH and Montana State will be going into their games as underdogs. So, I remain hopeful with an upset or two one or two teams with 5 losses will at least be considered and if that's the case I think Nova has as strong a resume as any 5 loss team.

Unless your list is missing some contenders, but it looks pretty comprehensive to me. thanks for putting it together.

It's not missing any realistic contenders. All of the four loss teams are in jeopardy if they lose and in the case of UNH, they're definitely out. Honestly, I wouldn't classify an 8-4 Delaware as anything but needing help. You keep clinging to the articles in SN and hope for the best. At least your optimism provides for some extra enjoyment for you on Saturday.

How about this, if EVERY one of these hits...

NAU > SUU
Montana > Montana State
Villanova > Delaware
Maine > UNH
Richmond > W&M
YSU > SDSU
Elon > Samford
Norfolk > SCSt

I will give you a 0.1% chance of getting a bid.

[vutomcat]

Major progress made!

If I can move a Hen fan 0.1% for Nova the sky is the limit with the committtee!