Big Sky Playoff Teams: 2?3?4?

[kalm]

4 seems too unlikely since we wont have 3 8 win teams. next yr with the 4 new schools we could see 4.

The MVFC got 3 in at 7-4 last year.

9-2 cats, 8-3 griz, 7-4 eagles and hornets, if it were to happen, wouldn't be a stretch

[Mvemjsunpx]

3 teams make it: Montana, MSU, Sac.


UM & MSU will win out until they face off in Bozeman, which means they'd both get in regardless of the outcome.

I think Sac will win out. I'm guessing they would still get in at 7-4 if they lose once.

Weber will lose to both Montanas, so they're out. PSU has to win out—which they won't—so they're out. EWU will lose to Sac & probably Cal Poly, so they're out.

[∞∞∞]

I think Weber could definitely beat Montana State and possibly Montana (although I'll give the edge to UM since it's at Wa-Griz). WSU's a tough road game for the Bobcats and when WSU's clickin', they've looked like a top 10 team. Problem with the Wildcats is that you don't know what you're gonna get...very jekyll and hyde.

[SuperHornet]

With how we are playing right now, I am betting we drop 2 of our last 5 and miss the playoffs at the hands of the Cats again.

I really hope I am wrong but our performance at ISU leads me to believe that we won't beat some of the better teams with our offense the way it is.

First road shut out since 2005 and Utah writes them off for the rest of the season. Give Kemp the starting job and this team will make noise in the playoffs.

I didn't know Jack was available.

[Mvemjsunpx]

With how we are playing right now, I am betting we drop 2 of our last 5 and miss the playoffs at the hands of the Cats again.

I really hope I am wrong but our performance at ISU leads me to believe that we won't beat some of the better teams with our offense the way it is.

First road shut out since 2005 and Utah writes them off for the rest of the season.

Exactly. A bunch of Griz fans think UM looked terrible even though they won by more points than most everyone predicted.

Give Kemp the starting job and this team will make noise in the playoffs.

Don't agree with this, at least not yet. Kemp looked much better as a WR against ISU than he did as a QB (7 carries, 2 yds.). I still question if Kemp can do well in passing situations; I have yet to see him just drop back, scan the defense, and make a throw.

Johnson looked much better against the Bengals than he did against Sac. His first-half decision making was questionable, but that TD to Gratton was an awesome throw. His decision making was good in the second half and he finally figured out how to sit back & wait for someone to get open.

[AZGrizFan]

First road shut out since 2005 and Utah writes them off for the rest of the season.

Exactly. A bunch of Griz fans think UM looked terrible even though they won by more points than most everyone predicted.

Give Kemp the starting job and this team will make noise in the playoffs.

Don't agree with this, at least not yet. Kemp looked much better as a WR against ISU than he did as a QB (7 carries, 2 yds.). I still question if Kemp can do well in passing situations; I have yet to see him just drop back, scan the defense, and make a throw.

Johnson looked much better against the Bengals than he did against Sac. His first-half decision making was questionable, but that TD to Gratton was an awesome throw. His decision making was good in the second half and he finally figured out how to sit back & wait for someone to get open.

Kemp is a difference-maker at WR. Also like the Sambrano/Moutra WR reverse play....

[GrizFanStuckInUtah]

First road shut out since 2005 and Utah writes them off for the rest of the season.

Exactly. A bunch of Griz fans think UM looked terrible even though they won by more points than most everyone predicted.

It wasn't the point spread that made me think there was a lot of room for improvement, it was they way they couldn't get the job done. If we have to rely on McKnight to kick field goals to win, it is going to be a long second half of the season. I think the players and coaching staff came away from the game with a lot of the same feelings from reading the paper so that is a good thing.

[Big McLargehuge]

Kemp is a difference maker, regardless of where he plays.

I'd still rather see him at QB than a banged-up Jordy, though.


I think we'll see 3 for sure, and unlikely 4. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the season goes with everyone, aside from MSU, knocking each other out early in the conference schedule.

[Mvemjsunpx]

It wasn't the point spread that made me think there was a lot of room for improvement, it was they way they couldn't get the job done. If we have to rely on McKnight to kick field goals to win, it is going to be a long second half of the season. I think the players and coaching staff came away from the game with a lot of the same feelings from reading the paper so that is a good thing.

It was a bit strange how the team got 7 turnovers, but only 6 of their 33 points came off turnovers. They did a lot better offensively when they weren't getting turnovers than when they were.


I have noticed a couple systemic things in the Griz offense the last few weeks that I don't like, though:

1. Why is the coaching staff treating Dan Moore like he's a feature back? He isn't; he's a "3 yards & a cloud of dust" back. Moore is averaging 3.0 ypc, but has received 15 carries-per-game the last 3 weeks. Peter Nguyen is averaging 5.5 ypc, but has received just 6 carries-per-game over that span. Give the ball to Moore less and to Nguyen & Canada more.

2. Why do the Griz keep handing it to Moore on 2nd. & long? He isn't likely to pick up 5 or 6 yards unless the O-Line is completely dominating the other team. I thought poor 2nd. down play-calling (& execution) was the biggest reason for the inconsistency in Pocatello.

[WeberAlum02]

2 BSC make it, MSU and WSU

I like your thinking. But wouldn't Weber need to beat MSU for that to happen? Or are you predicting a Wildcat win in Missoula?

[Wildcat Ryan]

2 BSC make it, MSU and WSU

I like your thinking. But wouldn't Weber need to beat MSU for that to happen? Or are you predicting a Wildcat win in Missoula?

Cant it be both?

[weberwildcat]

2 BSC make it, MSU and WSU

I like your thinking. But wouldn't Weber need to beat MSU for that to happen? Or are you predicting a Wildcat win in Missoula?

we really need to beat a montana this yr. if montana plays like they did in pocatello they will lose to us in missoula but that isnt gonna happen. not sure what happened in poca but they cant play that bad at home.

[cats2506]

2 BSC make it, MSU and WSU

I like your thinking. But wouldn't Weber need to beat MSU for that to happen? Or are you predicting a Wildcat win in Missoula?

um loses to WSU and MSU

[weberwildcat]

I like your thinking. But wouldn't Weber need to beat MSU for that to happen? Or are you predicting a Wildcat win in Missoula?

um loses to WSU and MSU

i hope your right. i think with our turnover margin it isnt out of the question. lately we have lost a lot of games because of that very reason.


big sky:
weber +6 (1.2 per game)
msu +2
um +1
psu 0
unc -1
ewu -3
sac -3
isu -4
nau -4

40% of our games played so far were against FBS.

[Silenoz]

1 or 2...

Assuming no 6-5 teams are somehow in line for an at-large...

[Silenoz]

I like your thinking. But wouldn't Weber need to beat MSU for that to happen? Or are you predicting a Wildcat win in Missoula?

um loses to WSU and MSU

Someone go to the effort of finding all of his UM predictions. I guarantee he has us at 3-4 wins for the season

[SuperHornet]

As of right now....

MSU -- Autobid unless they lose BotW.
UM -- Currently 6-2, all D-I. They drop a game due to WOU in two weeks. That leaves two counters, Weber and the BotW. The Griz will NOT lose both. Given a 7-3 D-I record with an OUTSTANDING conference slate, I just can't see a snub here. And if they somehow win out, that's the autobid, crazy as that sounds now. Either way, UM is in.
EWU -- Must win out. Don't want to say likely given that the next two games are against PSU and CP. But entirely in the realm of possibility. And if that happens, 7-4 and on an INCREDIBLE hot streak, I say EWU would be in. Any loss, however, and they're done.
Sac -- Too Jeckyll and Hyde. Must win out to even be considered. However, there will be deserving teams back East with the same record. Gut feeling: Sac is done.
Weber -- Four games left with two likely wins. However, before those two are a tough MT stretch. Weber is done as I can't see them beating BOTH.

NAU/ISU/UNC -- Mathematically eliminated. NAU can get to six wins, but lose one as it was a D-II. Besides, even if that counted, NAU will NOT be the first 6-5 to get a bid. (If it EVER happens, it would likely be a CAA team with a horrendously hard OOC schedule.) ISU and UNC can't even get to six wins.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

EWU will lose to Sac & probably Cal Poly, so they're out.

[Mvemjsunpx]

As of right now....

MSU -- Autobid unless they lose BotW.
UM -- Currently 6-2, all D-I. They drop a game due to WOU in two weeks. That leaves two counters, Weber and the BotW. The Griz will NOT lose both. Given a 7-3 D-I record with an OUTSTANDING conference slate, I just can't see a snub here. And if they somehow win out, that's the autobid, crazy as that sounds now. Either way, UM is in.
EWU -- Must win out. Don't want to say likely given that the next two games are against PSU and CP. But entirely in the realm of possibility. And if that happens, 7-4 and on an INCREDIBLE hot streak, I say EWU would be in. Any loss, however, and they're done.
Sac -- Too Jeckyll and Hyde. Must win out to even be considered. However, there will be deserving teams back East with the same record. Gut feeling: Sac is done.
Weber -- Four games left with two likely wins. However, before those two are a tough MT stretch. Weber is done as I can't see them beating BOTH.

NAU/ISU/UNC -- Mathematically eliminated. NAU can get to six wins, but lose one as it was a D-II. Besides, even if that counted, NAU will NOT be the first 6-5 to get a bid. (If it EVER happens, it would likely be a CAA team with a horrendously hard OOC schedule.) ISU and UNC can't even get to six wins.

It's looking like the Cal Poly/EWU game will be for a playoff spot.

Weber controls their own destiny, but given the opponents it looks more like their destiny is a losing season.

Sac has a good shot if they win out. An FBS win often carries (disproportionate) weight in people's minds & the CAA teams are beating each other up—Delaware and W&M are already out of the running and Richmond is on life support. There were four 7-4 at-larges in 2010.

[EWURanger]

Right now the safe bet would be on only two Big Sky teams getting in (MSU, Montana). Sac and EWU still have really outside shots to make it in. It becomes really interesting if both teams find a way to win out with both teams at 7 Division I wins. I'm not sure what would happen there.....it would be hard to keep Sac out with the FBS win, but at the same time I don't think they'd hold the defending champs out with a string of 7 straight wins and the head to head against Sac.

All pure speculation, anyway, as EWU still has 3 difficult games remaining and desperately needs to get some guys healthy for any hope of building on this momentum. Sac has a pretty favorable remaining schedule with 3 of 4 games at home. NAU will be a tough one, even at home, and they have to play @ Portland.

[uofmman1122]

BSC teams in order of playoff bid likelihood:

Montana State - 6 DI wins - 3 games to get 1 win.
- With ISU on the schedule, it's pretty much guaranteed they'll be in the playoffs again this year. Losing their last 3 would be the collapse of the century, but it's good for them that it won't happen. I think they'll only lose one game, if they even lose at all.

Playoff Probability: 98%

Montana - 6 DI wins - 2 games to get 1 win.
- With DII Western Oregon on the schedule, next week against Weber is basically a playoff play-in game. Win, and we're in. Losing next week would make it definitely tough to get in, considering we travel to BSC #1 MSU in the last week for our playoff lives. I think the Griz can win that game, but beating Weber would give us added insurance. At least we have them at home.

Playoff Probability: 50%

Eastern Washington - 4 DI wins - 3 games to get 3 wins.
- Of the 3 teams on the bubble in must-win situations, Eastern has the best shot to get in. Their hardest games are behind them, and they showed yesterday @ Sac State that they can play with anyone, despite the horrid injury situation. Toughest remaining game is Cal Poly, but if BLM can put on a show like he did today, there's no reason they lose another game before the playoffs. They can win out and not affect the other teams on the bubble.

Playoff Probability: 45%

Sac State - 3 DI wins - 4 games to get 4 wins.
- The Hornets' schedule seems favorable for them to get in, but they must win 4 games in a row, maybe without their starting QB Flemming, depending on the injury situation. Toughest remaining team is PSU, since they have been rather inconsistent on the road this year. Win out, and they likely make the playoffs, not having an effect on the other bubble teams.

Playoff Probability: 30%

Weber State - 3 DI wins - 4 games to get 4 wins.
- Weber could be on the outside looking in at this point. Not because their team is bad, or because they don't want it, but losing to SUU yesterday took away their one lifeline loss. Now it's win out, or you're out. The bad news is that they have the hardest remaining schedule in the Big Sky. First at Montana, where they haven't won since 1986, then immediately the following week at home against the BSC #1 Bobcats. Not to mention that they have to travel to PSU two weeks later to finish the year. Even if they beat one Montana team, it's highly unlikely that they beat both.

Playoff Probability: 5%

At best, I think the BSC will have 3 teams. Realistically, there might only be one, though. Are the Bobcats that much better than the rest of the Big Sky, or will someone knock them off and claim a share of the title?

[EWURanger]

Remaining schedules.

Montana State: Currently 7-1, 6-0 BSC.

vs Idaho State - The return of Kramer to Bobcat Stadium adds a little intrigue to this game, but the Bengals will be out-classed in this one. Not much else to say here, it will be a rout in Bozo.

@ Weber State - Interesting game. MSU probably wins this one, but it could be a close game. Advantage MSU.

vs Montana - These games are unpredictable. We will know more over the next couple of weeks, but Cats should be the favorites at home for this one. Cats will benefit from having the bye after playing a very physical Weber State going into Cat-Griz on 11/19.

Most likely record: 10-1, 8-0 BSC. Number 2-4 seed.


Montana: Currently 6-2, 5-1 BSC.

vs. Weber State - This will be a battle. Weber will not be any pushover, but they generally tend to come up short in Missoula. UM should be able to gut out a close win at home.

vs. Western Oregon - One thousand lashes for O'Day for scheduling this dumbass game. If the Griz somehow manage to miss the playoffs again at 7-4, this will be why. There isn't much else to say about this game, other than the fact that UM should be able to rest starters going into the bye the week before Cat-Griz. I'm not sure how much of an advantage it will be if UM's starters haven't seen a lot of PT for the previous two weeks before they play the Cats, though.

@ Montana State - For Montana to win, they need to continue to develop their vertical passing game and get a little more creative offensively. Their offense is difficult to watch at times, but then also shows flashes of brilliance. MSU's weakness defensively is their suspect secondary, but UM may have a difficult time exploiting that with their current offensive schemes. Advantage to MSU at home, but it could be close with the Griz having about a 40% chance to win.

Most likely record: 8-3 (With one non-counter), 6-2 BSC. Opening round playoff game at home, then travel.


Eastern Washington: Currently 4-4, 4-2 BSC.

vs. Portland State - EWU desperately needs to hang onto the momentum they have gathered the past four games and find a way to beat Portland State in their last game of the season at Roos Field. To do that, Mitchell will need to continue his great performances in the last three games, and the Eags absolutely must find a way to get more bodies healthy. If they can hang on to beat PSU, then they have the much-needed bye going into the Cal-Poly game. EWU may have a slight advantage playing at home, where they are currently 10-1 on the red turf.

@ Cal-Poly - This game could be for a playoff spot. Cal-Poly hasn't been great offensively, and is weak against the pass. EWU has been weak against the run. Toss-up. Will probably come down to TO's.

@ Idaho State - Again, we will know more over the next two weeks, but EWU should win this game. It will be interesting to watch the top two passing offenses in the Big Sky.....this game could last 5 hours.

Most likely record: 6-5, 6-2 BSC.


Sacramento State: Currently 3-4, 2-3 BSC.

vs. NAU - This game might come down to whether or not Flemming can play. Sac's dual-QB system was effective at times against EWU with Flemming out, but I don't know whether they will win many games doing that. NAU is balanced offensively and should be able to exploit Sac's small-ish secondary. Toss-up, with slight advantage to Sac being at home.

@ Portland State - Most difficult game on the remaining schedule. Another toss-up, with slight advantage to PSU at home.

vs. Idaho State - Sac State should win this game handily.

vs. UC Davis - Sac State should be favored, but nothing is a given in this rivalry.

Most likely record: 6-5, 4-4 BSC.


Weber State: Currently 3-4, 3-1 BSC.

@ Montana - Weber has an outside shot to win this game if they can stop the run and execute on offense better than they did this week. Montana, however, is difficult for anyone to beat at home. Advantage Griz.

vs. Montana State - Weber, just like EWU and Sac State, have the unenviable position of having to play MSU the week after the Griz. Advantage MSU, even on the road.

vs. NAU - Toss-up. NAU has played some good teams close, but haven't figured out how to win those close games.

@ Portland State - Toss-up.

Most likely record: 5-6, 5-3 BSC.

PSU, NAU, UNC, ISU = eliminated.

[grizzaholic]

Remaining schedules.

Montana State: Currently 7-1, 6-0 BSC.

vs Idaho State - The return of Kramer to Bobcat Stadium adds a little intrigue to this game, but the Bengals will be out-classed in this one. Not much else to say here, it will be a rout in Bozo.

@ Weber State - Interesting game. MSU probably wins this one, but it could be a close game. Advantage MSU.

vs Montana - These games are unpredictable. We will know more over the next couple of weeks, but Cats should be the favorites at home for this one. Cats will benefit from having the bye after playing a very physical Weber State going into Cat-Griz on 11/19.

Most likely record: 10-1, 9-0 BSC. Number 2-4 seed.


Montana: Currently 6-2, 5-1 BSC.

vs. Weber State - This will be a battle. Weber will not be any pushover, but they generally tend to come up short in Missoula. UM should be able to gut out a close win at home.

vs. Western Oregon - One thousand lashes for O'Day for scheduling this dumbass game. If the Griz somehow manage to miss the playoffs again at 7-4, this will be why. There isn't much else to say about this game, other than the fact that UM should be able to rest starters going into the bye the week before Cat-Griz. I'm not sure how much of an advantage it will be if UM's starters haven't seen a lot of PT for the previous two weeks before they play the Cats, though.

@ Montana State - For Montana to win, they need to continue to develop their vertical passing game and get a little more creative offensively. Their offense is difficult to watch at times, but then also shows flashes of brilliance. MSU's weakness defensively is their suspect secondary, but UM may have a difficult time exploiting that with their current offensive schemes. Advantage to MSU at home, but it could be close with the Griz having about a 40% chance to win.

Most likely record: 8-3 (With one non-counter), 6-2 BSC. Opening round playoff game at home, then travel.


Eastern Washington: Currently 4-4, 4-2 BSC.

vs. Portland State - EWU desperately needs to hang onto the momentum they have gathered the past four games and find a way to beat Portland State in their last game of the season at Roos Field. To do that, Mitchell will need to continue his great performances in the last three games, and the Eags absolutely must find a way to get more bodies healthy. If they can hang on to beat PSU, then they have the much-needed bye going into the Cal-Poly game. EWU may have a slight advantage playing at home, where they are currently 10-1 on the red turf.

@ Cal-Poly - This game could be for a playoff spot. Cal-Poly hasn't been great offensively, and is weak against the pass. EWU has been weak against the run. Toss-up. Will probably come down to TO's.

@ Idaho State - Again, we will know more over the next two weeks, but EWU should win this game. It will be interesting to watch the top two passing offenses in the Big Sky.....this game could last 5 hours.

Most likely record: 6-5, 6-2 BSC.


Sacramento State: Currently 3-4, 2-3 BSC.

vs. NAU - This game might come down to whether or not Flemming can play. Sac's dual-QB system was effective at times against EWU with Flemming out, but I don't know whether they will win many games doing that. NAU is balanced offensively and should be able to exploit Sac's small-ish secondary. Toss-up, with slight advantage to Sac being at home.

@ Portland State - Most difficult game on the remaining schedule. Another toss-up, with slight advantage to PSU at home.

vs. Idaho State - Sac State should win this game handily.

vs. UC Davis - Sac State should be favored, but nothing is a given in this rivalry.

Most likely record: 6-5, 4-4 BSC.


Weber State: Currently 3-4, 3-1 BSC.

@ Montana - Weber has an outside shot to win this game if they can stop the run and execute on offense better than they did this week. Montana, however, is difficult for anyone to beat at home. Advantage Griz.

vs. Montana State - Weber, just like EWU and Sac State, have the unenviable position of having to play MSU the week after the Griz. Advantage MSU, even on the road.

vs. NAU - Toss-up. NAU has played some good teams close, but haven't figured out how to win those close games.

@ Portland State - Toss-up.

Most likely record: 5-6, 5-3 BSC.

PSU, NAU, UNC, ISU = eliminated.

[griz8791]

. . . vs. Western Oregon - One thousand lashes for O'Day for scheduling this dumbass game. If the Griz somehow manage to miss the playoffs again at 7-4, this will be why. There isn't much else to say about this game, other than the fact that UM should be able to rest starters going into the bye the week before Cat-Griz. I'm not sure how much of an advantage it will be if UM's starters haven't seen a lot of PT for the previous two weeks before they play the Cats, though. . . .

This. Plus he is utterly unapologetic about scheduling these ****ing games.

[weberwildcat]

As of the end of Week 8 (OCT 23)

Remaining schedules.

Montana State: Currently 7-1, 6-0 BSC.

vs Idaho State - The return of Kramer to Bobcat Stadium adds a little intrigue to this game, but the Bengals will be out-classed in this one. Not much else to say here, it will be a rout in Bozo.

@ Weber State - Interesting game. MSU probably wins this one, but it could be a close game. Advantage MSU.

vs Montana - These games are unpredictable. We will know more over the next couple of weeks, but Cats should be the favorites at home for this one. Cats will benefit from having the bye after playing a very physical Weber State going into Cat-Griz on 11/19.

Most likely record: 10-1, 9-0 BSC. Number 2-4 seed.


Montana: Currently 6-2, 5-1 BSC.

vs. Weber State - This will be a battle. Weber will not be any pushover, but they generally tend to come up short in Missoula. UM should be able to gut out a close win at home.

vs. Western Oregon - One thousand lashes for O'Day for scheduling this dumbass game. If the Griz somehow manage to miss the playoffs again at 7-4, this will be why. There isn't much else to say about this game, other than the fact that UM should be able to rest starters going into the bye the week before Cat-Griz. I'm not sure how much of an advantage it will be if UM's starters haven't seen a lot of PT for the previous two weeks before they play the Cats, though.

@ Montana State - For Montana to win, they need to continue to develop their vertical passing game and get a little more creative offensively. Their offense is difficult to watch at times, but then also shows flashes of brilliance. MSU's weakness defensively is their suspect secondary, but UM may have a difficult time exploiting that with their current offensive schemes. Advantage to MSU at home, but it could be close with the Griz having about a 40% chance to win.

Most likely record: 8-3 (With one non-counter), 6-2 BSC. Opening round playoff game at home, then travel.


Eastern Washington: Currently 4-4, 4-2 BSC.

vs. Portland State - EWU desperately needs to hang onto the momentum they have gathered the past four games and find a way to beat Portland State in their last game of the season at Roos Field. To do that, Mitchell will need to continue his great performances in the last three games, and the Eags absolutely must find a way to get more bodies healthy. If they can hang on to beat PSU, then they have the much-needed bye going into the Cal-Poly game. EWU may have a slight advantage playing at home, where they are currently 10-1 on the red turf.

@ Cal-Poly - This game could be for a playoff spot. Cal-Poly hasn't been great offensively, and is weak against the pass. EWU has been weak against the run. Toss-up. Will probably come down to TO's.

@ Idaho State - Again, we will know more over the next two weeks, but EWU should win this game. It will be interesting to watch the top two passing offenses in the Big Sky.....this game could last 5 hours.

Most likely record: 6-5, 6-2 BSC.


Sacramento State: Currently 3-4, 2-3 BSC.

vs. NAU - This game might come down to whether or not Flemming can play. Sac's dual-QB system was effective at times against EWU with Flemming out, but I don't know whether they will win many games doing that. NAU is balanced offensively and should be able to exploit Sac's small-ish secondary. Toss-up, with slight advantage to Sac being at home.

@ Portland State - Most difficult game on the remaining schedule. Another toss-up, with slight advantage to PSU at home.

vs. Idaho State - Sac State should win this game handily.

vs. UC Davis - Sac State should be favored, but nothing is a given in this rivalry.

Most likely record: 6-5, 4-4 BSC.


Weber State: Currently 3-4, 3-1 BSC.

@ Montana - Weber has an outside shot to win this game if they can stop the run and execute on offense better than they did this week. Montana, however, is difficult for anyone to beat at home. Advantage Griz.

vs. Montana State - Weber, just like EWU and Sac State, have the unenviable position of having to play MSU the week after the Griz. Advantage MSU, even on the road.

vs. NAU - Toss-up. NAU has played some good teams close, but haven't figured out how to win those close games.

@ Portland State - Toss-up.

Most likely record: 5-6, 5-3 BSC.