Big Sky Standings after Week 8

[webfan]

Thats like 2008 when Weber State beat Cal Poly then had to go to Montana. That limits a coference's sucess overall. Its like they're saying "at least one of you' won't go any further".

[uofmman1122]

I do have one question, though. With the extra round, will the "no intraconference games" rule still only apply to the first round (when 12 teams have byes), or will it apply to the first 2 rounds (since the second round is the old first round).

If team A and team B from the same conference are in the same bracket:

They can't play in the first round for sure. The second round depends on whether or not one of them played in round one.

If A played in round 1, and B had a bye, they can play in round 2.

If they both had a bye, they can't play until round 3.

[native]

Not when they have to play in Missoula this year.

MSU gets the AQ if they win out, which would include a win over the Griz.

If the Griz win out, they would need EWU to lose one more conference game to get the AQ.

If EWU wins out, they would need MSU to lose one more conference game for the AQ.

The Big Sky playoff chances are a little more precarious. Montana, Montana State and Eastern Washington have already played 8 games but only have 5 DI wins each, so none of these teams can afford to lose more than one of their remaining games. Three is the maximum possible number of BSC teams which will finish with 7 DI wins, but it is quite possible that only two BSC teams will finish with the 7 wins.

With no ranked opponents remaining on the schedule, EWU has the easiest path to the BSC title and autobid.

The Montanas control their own destinies but both must face a dangerous Weber and each other.

Northern Arizona must win out to garner 7 DI wins, and has arguably the hardest path to the playoffs. There is NO margin for error for the Lumberjacks, who must make a clean sweep of Sac State, Weber and Portland State at home, and travel to Northern Colorado.

Weber State can still afford to lose one remaining game and still end up with 7 DI wins, but with Texas Tech still on the schedule that means they must win out against UM, MSU and NAU. Beating NAU will knock the Lumberjacks out of contention. If Weber manages to beat either of the Montanas, the loser MUST beat the remaining Montana to get to 7 DI wins. If Weber miraculously beats both Montanas, then whichever loses the Montana Bowl is knocked out.

[Mvemjsunpx]

The Big Sky playoff chances are a little more precarious. Montana, Montana State and Eastern Washington have already played 8 games but only have 5 DI wins each, so none of these teams can afford to lose more than one of their remaining games. Three is the maximum possible number of BSC teams which will finish with 7 DI wins, but it is quite possible that only two BSC teams will finish with the 7 wins.

No, it's not; there can be 4. If EWU loses no more than once, the MSU/UM loser wins the rest, the MSU/UM winner wins at least 1 of the other 2, & NAU wins out, then each of those 4 will have 7 DI wins.

Only 3 can get 7 DI wins if Weber gets to 7 DI wins, since they play NAU & both Montanas (NAU & the Griz/Cat loser couldn't get there).

There's also a scenario where the Big Sky would have just 3 teams with 7 DI wins, but could still get 4 playoff teams. In this situation, EWU, MSU, UM, & NAU would tie for first @ 6-2, but EWU would lose to Southern Utah so they wouldn't have 7 DI wins. EWU would get the auto-bid while the other 3 would have 7 DI wins (assuming Montana beats NoDak), leaving the door open for 4 playoff entries.

[native]

The Big Sky playoff chances are a little more precarious. Montana, Montana State and Eastern Washington have already played 8 games but only have 5 DI wins each, so none of these teams can afford to lose more than one of their remaining games. Three is the maximum possible number of BSC teams which will finish with 7 DI wins, but it is quite possible that only two BSC teams will finish with the 7 wins.

No, it's not; there can be 4. If EWU loses no more than once, the MSU/UM loser wins the rest, the MSU/UM winner wins at least 1 of the other 2, & NAU wins out, then each of those 4 will have 7 DI wins.

Only 3 can get 7 DI wins if Weber gets to 7 DI wins, since they play NAU & both Montanas (NAU & the Griz/Cat loser couldn't get there).

There's also a scenario where the Big Sky would have just 3 teams with 7 DI wins, but could still get 4 playoff teams. In this situation, EWU, MSU, UM, & NAU would tie for first @ 6-2, but EWU would lose to Southern Utah so they wouldn't have 7 DI wins. EWU would get the auto-bid while the other 3 would have 7 DI wins (assuming Montana beats NoDak), leaving the door open for 4 playoff entries.

OK, you're right, m! But that's a precarious scenario! Betweeen Weber,Portland and Northern Colorado, I think at least one will beat Northern Arizona.

[kalm]

No, it's not; there can be 4. If EWU loses no more than once, the MSU/UM loser wins the rest, the MSU/UM winner wins at least 1 of the other 2, & NAU wins out, then each of those 4 will have 7 DI wins.

Only 3 can get 7 DI wins if Weber gets to 7 DI wins, since they play NAU & both Montanas (NAU & the Griz/Cat loser couldn't get there).

There's also a scenario where the Big Sky would have just 3 teams with 7 DI wins, but could still get 4 playoff teams. In this situation, EWU, MSU, UM, & NAU would tie for first @ 6-2, but EWU would lose to Southern Utah so they wouldn't have 7 DI wins. EWU would get the auto-bid while the other 3 would have 7 DI wins (assuming Montana beats NoDak), leaving the door open for 4 playoff entries.

OK, you're right, m! But that's a precarious scenario! Betweeen Weber,Portland and Northern Colorado, I think at least one will beat Northern Arizona.

I don't.

[weberwildcat]

OK, you're right, m! But that's a precarious scenario! Betweeen Weber,Portland and Northern Colorado, I think at least one will beat Northern Arizona.

I don't.

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19444" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NAU's Herrick didn't play against the Griz because of a broken thumb. This is devastating to the Jacks if he is out for the year. If he doesn't play I don't think we can assume they will beat Sac, Weber and PSU.

[mlbowl]

I don't.

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19444" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NAU's Herrick didn't play against the Griz because of a broken thumb. This is devastating to the Jacks if he is out for the year. If he doesn't play I don't think we can assume they will beat Sac, Weber and PSU.

Last time I checked, Herrick wasn't playing defense. NAU's defense is pretty good Oh, and their passing offense, at least against us, was a lot of high percentage passing plays. Their backup QB was more than capable

[kalm]

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19444" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NAU's Herrick didn't play against the Griz because of a broken thumb. This is devastating to the Jacks if he is out for the year. If he doesn't play I don't think we can assume they will beat Sac, Weber and PSU.

Last time I checked, Herrick wasn't playing defense. NAU's defense is pretty good Oh, and their passing offense, at least against us, was a lot of high percentage passing plays. Their backup QB was more than capable

+1

Their back up was fairly impressive against us too.

[GrizFanStuckInUtah]

Man, all the games were incredibly close this weekend in the Sky, 4,3,3,2 were this score differences in all the games.

[webfan]

Man, all the games were incredibly close this weekend in the Sky, 4,3,3,2 were this score differences in all the games.

There is more parity in the BSC this year than I can remember.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19444" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NAU's Herrick didn't play against the Griz because of a broken thumb. This is devastating to the Jacks if he is out for the year. If he doesn't play I don't think we can assume they will beat Sac, Weber and PSU.

Last time I checked, Herrick wasn't playing defense. NAU's defense is pretty good Oh, and their passing offense, at least against us, was a lot of high percentage passing plays. Their backup QB was more than capable

Another +1. Their backup almost beat the Griz in WGS. Mistake-prone teams like Weber, PSU and Sac will have trouble against NAU's D.

[Mvemjsunpx]

OK, you're right, m! But that's a precarious scenario! Betweeen Weber,Portland and Northern Colorado, I think at least one will beat Northern Arizona.

I don't.

Neither do I. I also believe EWU & UM will win out while MSU will lose only to the Griz.

Additionally, I think Weber will lose out & end up 4-7.

[clenz]

The best we can do (and what we probably WILL do) is 7-4. That gets adjusted to 6-4 when the committee takes out D-II WOU.

Conclusion? Barring some major shakeups in the next few weeks, we're toast.

Thank you, EWU....

Win more and you don't have to worry about EWU....

[Mvemjsunpx]

NAU's Herrick didn't play against the Griz because of a broken thumb. This is devastating to the Jacks if he is out for the year. If he doesn't play I don't think we can assume they will beat Sac, Weber and PSU.

Is it?

• Efficiency Rating
  
  Herrick - 123.3
  Stangel - 122.6

Pretty mediocre & not much difference. Plus most of Stangel's passes came against Montana, who has the best pass defense in the conference.

I don't know if Stangel is actually equal to Herrick (my suspicion is that he's less capable of tough throws, but less likely to turn it over), but Herrick hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire this year.