Grizalltheway wrote:
Don't worry, your Jacks will probably **** the bed again against SUU and the question will be moot.
And you gave me exactly what I should expect after asking a legitimate question, gatw.
PS - Right back at you with the sh***ing the bed prediction next week in Missoula. Griz getting their first win of the season against a conference foe with a winning record in an elimination rivalry game may be asking a lot? Griz defense is stout. Bobcats offense is prolific. This is far from a gimme.
Grizalltheway wrote:Griz/cat is rarely a high scoring affair. I'm thinking something in the 28-24 range, depending on whether JJ plays and how close to 100% he is.
mtjack wrote:Should FCS teams get rewarded more for beating higher ranked competition or punished more for lower ranked competition? I'm not trying to hide which two teams I'm talking about here, either.
mtjack, that is a fair question. Everything depends upon the specifics, and the committee's alternatives (how many others & just whom are they) when selecting their at large choices. However in general, I believe a quality win helps more than a bad loss hurts. The committee also seems to reward playing a tougher schedule rather than a weak one. As a result, an 8-4 Big Sky team likely gets the nod over the 9-3 Patriot league team everytime.
To their credit the Lumberjacks have a couple of very good wins. Yet NAU's problem isn't dropping a couple against mid-tier competition, or a bad loss holding them back. I think the cumulative weight of three bad losses is a potentially fatal problem. The losses don't guarantee they are out, but it will drag down their chances against other 8-4 teams in the mix. In short, you can keep the faith but don't bet the farm.
mtjack wrote:Should FCS teams get rewarded more for beating higher ranked competition or punished more for lower ranked competition? I'm not trying to hide which two teams I'm talking about here, either.
mtjack, that is a fair question. Everything depends upon the specifics, and the committee's alternatives (how many others & just whom are they) when selecting their at large choices. However in general, I believe a quality win helps more than a bad loss hurts. The committee also seems to reward playing a tougher schedule rather than a weak one. As a result, an 8-4 Big Sky team likely gets the nod over the 9-3 Patriot league team everytime.
To their credit the Lumberjacks have a couple of very good wins. Yet NAU's problem isn't dropping a couple against mid-tier competition, or a bad loss holding them back. I think the cumulative weight of three bad losses is a potentially fatal problem. The losses don't guarantee they are out, but it will drag down their chances against other 8-4 teams in the mix. In short, you can keep the faith but don't bet the farm.
Grizalltheway wrote:Not if they don't get the auto. I think they have one too many losses to bad, bad teams.
Who do you have in ahead of them? I think it boils down to 3 out of SFA, NAU, Bucknell, Bryant, and BCU.
I can't put a team in that lost to South Dakota (their only d1 win of the year), Northern Colorado and North Dakota in the same season in the playoffs no matter how you want to spin it
kalm wrote:
Who do you have in ahead of them? I think it boils down to 3 out of SFA, NAU, Bucknell, Bryant, and BCU.
I can't put a team in that lost to South Dakota (their only d1 win of the year), Northern Colorado and North Dakota in the same season in the playoffs no matter how you want to spin it
clenz wrote:
I can't put a team in that lost to South Dakota (their only d1 win of the year), Northern Colorado and North Dakota in the same season in the playoffs no matter how you want to spin it
Grizzlies1982 wrote:
mtjack, that is a fair question. Everything depends upon the specifics, and the committee's alternatives (how many others & just whom are they) when selecting their at large choices. However in general, I believe a quality win helps more than a bad loss hurts. The committee also seems to reward playing a tougher schedule rather than a weak one. As a result, an 8-4 Big Sky team likely gets the nod over the 9-3 Patriot league team everytime.
To their credit the Lumberjacks have a couple of very good wins. Yet NAU's problem isn't dropping a couple against mid-tier competition, or a bad loss holding them back. I think the cumulative weight of three bad losses is a potentially fatal problem. The losses don't guarantee they are out, but it will drag down their chances against other 8-4 teams in the mix. In short, you can keep the faith but don't bet the farm.
Bucknell beats Colgate, they will be 9-2. The ? is, does a 7-4 vs Div I Big Sky get a bid over a 9-2 Patriot or an 8-2 vs Div I NEC? I don't know.
Last edited by BDKJMU on Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I think Charleston Southern is the best of those possible 4th. choices given how they've looked since losing to Coastal, but not getting to 7 DI wins could hurt them.
Then again, were we assuming Idaho State was the 3rd. choice (after UM & MSU)?
Bucknell beats Colgate, they will be 9-2. The ? is, does a 7-4 vs Div I Big Sky get a bid over a 9-2 Patriot or an 8-2 vs Div I NEC? I don't know.
I don't "know" but have a strong hunch. In your example the 7-4 Big Sky (or CAA, or MVFC) would get in over an 8-2 NEC or 9-2 Patriot league teams about 9 out of 10 times. The perceived weakness of those conferences sets their bar extra high. So to overcome that handicap, the exception would be in a year where the NEC / Patriot teams had either huge quality OOC wins to hang their hat on, or only FBS type losses marring their record.
BDKJMU wrote:
Bucknell beats Colgate, they will be 9-2. The ? is, does a 7-4 vs Div I Big Sky get a bid over a 9-2 Patriot or an 8-2 vs Div I NEC? I don't know.
I don't "know" but have a strong hunch. In your example the 7-4 Big Sky (or CAA, or MVFC) would get in over an 8-2 NEC or 9-2 Patriot league teams about 9 out of 10 times. The perceived weakness of those conferences sets their bar extra high. So to overcome that handicap, the exception would be in a year where the NEC / Patriot teams had either huge quality OOC wins to hang their hat on, or only FBS type losses marring their record.
It's not just the conference difference. Bryant & Bucknell have weak schedules even beyond that fact.
Grizzlies1982 wrote:
I don't "know" but have a strong hunch. In your example the 7-4 Big Sky (or CAA, or MVFC) would get in over an 8-2 NEC or 9-2 Patriot league teams about 9 out of 10 times. The perceived weakness of those conferences sets their bar extra high. So to overcome that handicap, the exception would be in a year where the NEC / Patriot teams had either huge quality OOC wins to hang their hat on, or only FBS type losses marring their record.
It's not just the conference difference. Bryant & Bucknell have weak schedules even beyond that fact.
And Bryant's best wins are Maine, Stony Brook, and Bucknell.
CPAlum wrote:Its amazing to me that Montana is ranked as high as they are and is even in the conversation of a playoff team
Montana does not look like a playoff team to me
EWU and MSU from the Big Sky....nobody else deserves to be there.
And after the Griz win on Saturday? Then what?
Montana's reputation seems to get them lots of extra love I'm guessing they'd get in.
Fair to note If Montana and Cal Poly win this weekend they'd both have 7 D1 wins. Cal Poly does not deserve a spot but has the same D1 win total and beat the snot out of the Griz...make of that what you will
AZGrizFan wrote:
And after the Griz win on Saturday? Then what?
Montana's reputation seems to get them lots of extra love I'm guessing they'd get in.
Fair to note If Montana and Cal Poly win this weekend they'd both have 7 D1 wins. Cal Poly does not deserve a spot but has the same D1 win total and beat the snot out of the Griz...make of that what you will
Fair point, but Montana wouldn't have any "bad" losses if they finish 8-4. Finishing 1-2 with a loss to 1-9 Davis is not the best way to impress the committee.
Montana's reputation seems to get them lots of extra love I'm guessing they'd get in.
Fair to note If Montana and Cal Poly win this weekend they'd both have 7 D1 wins. Cal Poly does not deserve a spot but has the same D1 win total and beat the snot out of the Griz...make of that what you will
Fair point, but Montana wouldn't have any "bad" losses if they finish 8-4. Finishing 1-2 with a loss to 1-9 Davis is not the best way to impress the committee.
I agree...Cal Poly pissed their season away last Saturday....no excuses.
