Quality Losses

Football Championship Subdivision discussions
htownbearkat
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by htownbearkat »

JohnStOnge wrote:
But then the pokes would of been beat by stoney brook in NY in the play in game and it would not of been close. I like how you explain closes win and losses. funny how much they differ when apologizing for your teams closes losses vs SHSUs close wins.
You know, in this case I'm trying to argue that Sam Houston has a quality win in blowing out McNeese State. I look at both close wins and close losses. If you beat a team 50-0 that's different information than beating that team by one point. And if you lose to a team by one point that's different information than losing to a team by 50 points.

Sam Houston State was the best team in the Southland Conference this year even if it didn't get the automatic bid. It did not dominate the conference to the same extent as it it did last year in that last year the BearKats were not challenged at all. Did not even have a close game. This year they had a conference loss to UCA and had a very competitive game with SFA that I think (after watching it on TV) could've gone either way.

McNeese State was 4 points from tying for the conference championship, finishing 9-2, and going to the playoffs. The difference between that and what we McNeese fans have to live with is giving up a 1st down on a 4th and 11 situation to Southeastern Louisiana then giving up a two point conversion at the end of the game and UCA coverting a 4th and 10, successfully recovering an onside kick, then kicking a 47 yard field goal. The margin between a very successful season and a very disappointing one was very thin. McNeese State was obviously capable of beating both those teams and, as I said, is probably about equivalent in caliber to UCA. Had they had those two 1 point games go their way I don't think they'd be in a play in game. They'd probably be in about the same spot as UCA is.

The margin between Sam Houston State making the playoffs and not making it was fairly thin too because the fact that they scheduled two games against BCS league teams meant they couldn't afford more than one conference loss. You and I both know they could very well have lost that game against SFA. If a fan didn't know the recent history and didn't know Sam Houston State came in highly favored he'd have thought he was watching two very evenly matched teams play. Credit to Sam Houston State for making the plays and winning the game. But that game was competitive enough so that one play could've made the difference in who won and who lost.

Sam Houston State obviously belongs in the playoffs and has a shot. I don't think they're as good as you think they are but that's to be expected.
really wish the cowboys could of beat UCA, would of been better for both of us. The bearkats started very slow this year. i think there was a bit of a hangover from the NC game. As noted the schedule was awful and after the 4th quarter let down at UCA there was no room for error. As much as I would of like a seed, i dont think we can complain too much with our position in the bracket. I do think UCA got the short end of the stick though.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by uofmman1122 »

I think SHSU should be favored in every game unless they play somewhere really cold.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by JohnStOnge »

really wish the cowboys could of beat UCA, would of been better for both of us. The bearkats started very slow this year. i think there was a bit of a hangover from the NC game. As noted the schedule was awful and after the 4th quarter let down at UCA there was no room for error. As much as I would of like a seed, i dont think we can complain too much with our position in the bracket. I do think UCA got the short end of the stick though.
You know I thought about how narrow the margin between elation and despair can be in football some more after that last post. I really think it's possible UCA would not have made the playoffs if it had not won that game at McNeese. They don't get that onside kick or the field goal attempt goes maybe a foot farther to the right and they lose that game. If everything else happens the same both McNeese and them end up tied for second in the conference and 8-3 overall. But McNeese has a win over a FBS team that's doing well this year. UCA has a win over Sam Houston State but McNeese won the head to head. If the committee limits the Southland to two teams it's going to be McNeese.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by slulionsfan »

The difference between that and what we McNeese fans have to live with is giving up a 1st down on a 4th and 11 situation to Southeastern Louisiana on a fake punt then giving up a two point conversion at the end of the game and UCA coverting a 4th and 10, successfully recovering an onside kick, then kicking a 47 yard field goal.
Breaks in a game even out ... you failed to mention McNeese also converted a fake punt on a 4th and 27 that led to three points right before the half, not to mention got the ball on that possession when we fumbled while driving inside McNeese's 30 ... that's at least a six point swing in McNeese's favor and if we just line up in a punt safe defense, they probably just punt the ball and we run out the first half clock ... we also fumbled at our own 20 to set up McNeese's second TD ... I understand the point you're arguing and I agree beating McNeese is a high quality win for any FCS program but we earned our W that night ... the McNeese loss to UCA was more of a fluke because they it came down to a freak bounce of the ball.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by gobears14 »

I'll admit we got really lucky against mcneese, but i'd argue that if the SFA game wasn't in a total monsoon (it was ridiculous if you saw it) we could have won that game...instead we lost by 5 in the 4th quarter in a back and forth game with a ton of turnovers. Thats football...i guess it evens out. Honestly we could have gone 7-4 this year but every team has close games.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by slulionsfan »

I'm not so sure the monsoon didn't keep UCA in it vs SFA ... SFA turned the ball over 7 times to 4 for UCA ... UCA scored 16 defensive points, including a late safety with 4 seconds on the clock, and had 7 more set up inside SFA's 10 via turnover ... total offense was heavily in SFA's favor, 467 to 217 ... I'd say you're lucky it wasn't a blowout.
gobears14 wrote:I'll admit we got really lucky against mcneese, but i'd argue that if the SFA game wasn't in a total monsoon (it was ridiculous if you saw it) we could have won that game...instead we lost by 5 in the 4th quarter in a back and forth game with a ton of turnovers. Thats football...i guess it evens out. Honestly we could have gone 7-4 this year but every team has close games.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by CatMom »

slulionsfan wrote:I'm not so sure the monsoon didn't keep UCA in it vs SFA ... SFA turned the ball over 7 times to 4 for UCA ... UCA scored 16 defensive points, including a late safety with 4 seconds on the clock, and had 7 more set up inside SFA's 10 via turnover ... total offense was heavily in SFA's favor, 467 to 217 ... I'd say you're lucky it wasn't a blowout.
gobears14 wrote:I'll admit we got really lucky against mcneese, but i'd argue that if the SFA game wasn't in a total monsoon (it was ridiculous if you saw it) we could have won that game...instead we lost by 5 in the 4th quarter in a back and forth game with a ton of turnovers. Thats football...i guess it evens out. Honestly we could have gone 7-4 this year but every team has close games.
Not necessarily. I posted on another thread where TXST gave up 508 yds passing to SFA in 2007 but won 52-29. Give up all the yards you want as long as you keep them outside the 20's.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by CID1990 »

There is nothing quality about a loss.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by BlueHen86 »

CID1990 wrote:There is nothing quality about a loss.
:nod:
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by kalm »

BlueHen86 wrote:
CID1990 wrote:There is nothing quality about a loss.
:nod:
There is in when you're comparing losses.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by 89Hen »

89Hen wrote:
DMoo531 wrote:I am confused how SHSU and was selected...
Seriously, you're still on this? SHSU was 8-3, was runner-up last year and brought a bunch of fans to Frisco. This isn't rocket science. You need to let this go.
You still confused Moo? 8-)
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by bluehenbillk »

Montana St got blown away for the 2nd year in a row - ugh.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by Brock Landers »

bluehenbillk wrote:Montana St got blown away for the 3rd year in a row - ugh.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by grizzaholic »

bluehenbillk wrote:Montana St got blown away for the 2nd year in a row - ugh.
Was anyone besides MSU fans surprised????
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by BlackFalkin »

I was. Msu could've won that game if their qb and db's didn't eat laxatives for breakfast.
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by grizzaholic »

BlackFalkin wrote:I was. Msu could've won that game if their qb and db's didn't eat laxatives for breakfast.
Since when do they NOT eat laxatives for breakfast in the playoffs?
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Re: Quality Losses

Post by Brock Landers »

BlackFalkin wrote:I was. Msu could've won that game if their qb and db's didn't eat laxatives for breakfast.
And their O-line. And their special teams. And Ash. Basically everyone.
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