Week #10 FCS Sagarin Ratings

[Keenan]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1.William & Mary
2.Delaware
3.Villanova
4.Eastern Washington
5.Wofford
6.Appalachian State
7.New Hampshire
8.Sacramento State
9.Stephen F. Austin
10.Montana State
11.Western Illinois
12.Massachusetts
13.Northern Arizona
14.Jacksonville State
15.Northern Iowa
16.Montana
17.Georgia Southern
18.Chattanooga
19.Robert Morris
20.North Dakota State
21.James Madison
22.South Alabama
23.Richmond
24.Furman
25.Southern Utah
26.South Dakota State
27.Pennsylvania
28.Elon
29.Cal Poly-SLO
30.Jacksonville
31.Weber State
32.Samford
33.Central Arkansas
34.Missouri State
35.SE Missouri State
36.McNeese State
37.Maine
38.Lehigh
39.Indiana State
40.Liberty
41.Rhode Island
42.Portland State
43.Sam Houston State
44.Dayton
45.Old Dominion
46.Youngstown State
47.Murray State
48.Eastern Kentucky
49.Illinois State
50.Central Connecticut
51.Northwestern State
52.Southern Illinois
53.Harvard
54.UC Davis
55.South Dakota
56.Grambling
57.Yale
58.Albany
59.Duquesne
60.Bethune-Cookman
61.Bryant
62.Texas Southern
63.North Dakota
64.Texas State
65.Wagner
66.Colgate
67.Drake
68.Fordham
69.Dartmouth
70.Tennessee-Martin
71.Monmouth
72.Northern Colorado
73.Georgia State
74.Brown
75.Stony Brook
76.Western Carolina
77.Tennessee Tech
78.SE Louisiana
79.SC State
80.Coastal Carolina
81.Holy Cross
82.Jackson State
83.San Diego
84.Nicholls State
85.Alabama State
86.Prairie View A&M
87.Columbia
88.Idaho State
89.Alcorn State
90.Towson
91.Eastern Illinois
92.Sacred Heart
93.Lamar
94.Citadel
95.Ark.-Pine Bluff
96.Georgetown
97.Lafayette
98.Tennessee State
99.Florida A&M
100.Gardner-Webb
101.St.Francis-PA
102.Hampton
103.Morehead State
104.VMI
105.Austin Peay
106.Cornell
107.Davidson
108.Charleston Southern
109.Marist
110.Butler
111.Princeton
112.Campbell
113.Presbyterian
114.Alabama A&M
115.Bucknell
116.Norfolk State
117.Morgan State
118.Savannah State
119.Southern Univ.
120.Delaware State
121.NC Central
122.Miss.Valley State
123.NC A&T
124.Valparaiso
125.Howard

[Keenan]

According to Sagarin:

Most Overrated teams in human polls are
35.SE Missouri State
40.Liberty
60.Bethune-Cookman
79.SC State

Most Underrated teams in human polls are
3.Villanova
8.Sacramento State
13.Northern Arizona
19.Robert Morris

[expandspanos]

Sagarin doesn't ever seem to make much sense. We beat the then #1 team in the country, beat Mcneese at their place on our 5 game road trip, which included hanging with Fresno State at halftime, and we put more yards and points on them than Cincinnatti, that was one of our three losses, and we are #29 and Sacramento State is #8 WTF IS THIS CRAP? Yes, Sac did beat NAU good, but they're record is 4-4.. Sagarin is junk.

[ToTheLeft]

Sagarin doesn't ever seem to make much sense. We beat the then #1 team in the country, beat Mcneese at their place on our 5 game road trip, which included hanging with Fresno State at halftime, and we put more yards and points on them than Cincinnatti, that was one of our three losses, and we are #29 and Sacramento State is #8 WTF IS THIS CRAP? Yes, Sac did beat NAU good, but they're record is 4-4.. Sagarin is junk.

1. Then number 1 means nothing to computers. That's one good thing about them, it evaluates the win based on where the team is now, not preseason projections.

2. Sac State is way too high, but that happens. South Alabama is way too high, too. They're computers, now and then there's a way to get around the system. Nova is too high, too. Oh well.

3. You lost to Texas State.

[CPAlum]

CP does not seem to move on this poll...win or loose....I guess its consistant

[JBB]

I think one of the problems is giving a game result the same weight throughout the season. I really dont think the first game should be counted the same as the last in the final judgment. The last 2 should be full weight, the next 2 half weight and the rest 1/4 weight. Im not sure if he does that, but its something I have thought about and its something I use in my own systems.

As I see it, if one of your opponents gets a huge upset you stand to gain and that gain is reflected the rest of the year.

Its a very solid rating system though but does have a few anomalies.

[CPAlum]

I think one of the problems is giving a game result the same weight throughout the season. I really dont think the first game should be counted the same as the last in the final judgment. The last 2 should be full weight, the next 2 half weight and the rest 1/4 weight. Im not sure if he does that, but its something I have thought about and its something I use in my own systems.

That actually makes a lot of sense to me....it is kind of addressed in the strength of schedule but your suggestion may be better

[Keenan]

Sagarin doesn't ever seem to make much sense. We beat the then #1 team in the country, beat Mcneese at their place on our 5 game road trip, which included hanging with Fresno State at halftime, and we put more yards and points on them than Cincinnatti, that was one of our three losses, and we are #29 and Sacramento State is #8 WTF IS THIS CRAP? Yes, Sac did beat NAU good, but they're record is 4-4.. Sagarin is junk.

Your good wins are offset by a loss at #64 Texas State and simply playing #101 St.Francis-PA. Anytime you're playing teams in the 100's, you'll never have a great Sagarin rating. Why do you think my Liberty Flames are so low? We play #100,#101,#104,#108,#113 and #118

[expandspanos]

3. You lost to Texas State.

Texas state is 5-4, has beaten Southern Utah and Stephen F Austin, and lost by two points to Nicholls st., what's your point? That's our worst loss.. our other losses came against a very game Southern Utah and Fresno State.. We are 7-3 Sac is 5-4.. this poll sucks.

[ToTheLeft]

3. You lost to Texas State.

Texas state is 5-4, has beaten Southern Utah and Stephen F Austin, and lost by two points to Nicholls st., what's your point? That's our worst loss..

Read Keenan's post. That's just how computers work. They don't reason and think and adapt, they take numbers in and spit numbers out. You can't say "Why are we such and such rank" because they don't listen and don't care.

[ToTheLeft]

I personally have Poly as a top 20 team, so I'm not saying that I believe you're as low as Sagarin says. I also don't have Sac State anywhere near 8th.

[Keenan]

CP does not seem to move on this poll...win or loose....I guess its consistant

Actually, CP has moved a little bit. Cal Poly was ranked as high as #8 in Week 2, but has been falling the past five weeks to a season low of #29 this week. The Mustangs were also ranked #29 last week as well.

[Keenan]

3. You lost to Texas State.

Texas state is 5-4, has beaten Southern Utah and Stephen F Austin, and lost by two points to Nicholls st., what's your point? That's our worst loss.. our other losses came against a very game Southern Utah and Fresno State.. We are 7-3 Sac is 5-4.. this poll sucks.

You should actually be thankful that Sagarin doesn't factor in playing Div.II opponents. Humboldt State anyone?

[expandspanos]

Quite a few FCS teams (including the Grizzlies) end up playing one D-II opponent and Eastern Washington who barely won their game against their D-II, which doesn't seem to matter to anybody.

( Humboldt State turned out to be better than quite a few FCS teams I have seen here in SLO)

Besides, it doesn't count toward our 7 FCS wins, so don't worry.

[CPAlum]

Texas state is 5-4, has beaten Southern Utah and Stephen F Austin, and lost by two points to Nicholls st., what's your point? That's our worst loss.. our other losses came against a very game Southern Utah and Fresno State.. We are 7-3 Sac is 5-4.. this poll sucks.

You should actually be thankful that Sagarin doesn't factor in playing Div.II opponents. Humboldt State anyone?

you think a win would hurt us? Not sure Humboldt is that much worse than 1/3 of Liberty's schedule?

[expandspanos]

I just find it funny that EWU barely beats their D-II and nobody says a thing.

[Keenan]

It's not a matter of winning or losing against Humboldt State. It's how it would hypothetically affect your SOS. Playing a DII would inevitably be weighted worse than playing #125 Howard in FCS. It's not an actual factor however because Sagarin does not account for games played against DII schools. FYI, Liberty does not play a DII for the first time ever this season.

[CPAlum]

It's not a matter of winning or losing against Humboldt State. It's how it would hypothetically affect your SOS. Playing a DII would inevitably be weighted worse than playing #125 Howard in FCS. It's not an actual factor however because Sagarin does not account for games played against DII schools. FYI, Liberty does not play a DII for the first time ever this season.

From a computer poll standpoint you may be right. Cal Poly hears a lot of grief about Texst State (and they should) and Humboldt State. What is a bit irritating is that the HSU game was a win and quite honestly id bet that HSU could knock off several FCS teams at the bottom of that poll.

[kalm]

I just find it funny that EWU barely beats their D-II and nobody says a thing.

"People" have said many things about our win against CWU. But to echo TTL, computers don't talk.

And BTW, CWU is ranked 8th in DII, has a number of good athletes who are drop downs from western FBS and FCS conferences, and has split two games with Humboldt state who Poly beat by only 6.

CWU would be competing for conference titles in the FCS non-power conferences.

[kalm]

I also think Cal Poly should be ranked in the top 20 and should get an at large.

[expandspanos]

I was talking about the comment Keenan made.. we are humans talking in this thread right?

[kalm]

I was talking about the comment Keenan made.. we are humans talking in this thread right?

My bad, and good point. I wonder why Keenan didn't point out your win against St. Francis, PA?

[expandspanos]

Nice one EWU.. Can't wait until we get to play you guys again.

[ToTheLeft]

I was talking about the comment Keenan made.. we are humans talking in this thread right?

My bad, and good point. I wonder why Keenan didn't point out your win against St. Francis, PA?

Which, btw, was a game CP struggled to win. LU beat them by 45.

[Keenan]

My bad, and good point. I wonder why Keenan didn't point out your win against St. Francis, PA?

Which, btw, was a game CP struggled to win. LU beat them by 45.