JMU DJ makes his mid-week NC lean

[JMU DJ]

So, sounds like people from both sides are selling the other team short so I decided to do some analytical analysis.


First up - Villanova:


Average Points Scored : 32
Average Points Allowed: 13.6
Average Margine of Victory: 18.4
Rush YPG: 232.4
Pass YPG: 145.6
Total YPG: 378.0

Games allowing over 100 rush yards - 3
Games allowing over 300 pass yards - 4 (two games in the 290's)
Pass Yards Allowed Total : 3371
Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 240.8
Pass TDs Allowed: 14
Defensive Interceptions: 18
Rush Yards Allowed Total: 941
Rush Yards Allowed Per Game: 67.21
Rush TDs Allowed: 8
Total TDs Allowed: 22
Total Yards Allowed Per Game: 308.01
Total Sacks: 37
Turn Over Margin: 1
Total Offensive Turnovers: 12 (8 Fumble, 4 INT)
TFL: 70
Sacks Allowed: 36

Defensive Ranking: 29
Offensive Ranking: 27

As of 11/23/09 - Victories against opponents with top 25 GPI - 7:
#2 Richmond
#5 William & Mary (twice)
#8 New Hampshire
#17 James Madison
#18 Delaware
#20 Penn


Now - Montana:


Average Points Scored : 36.9
Average Points Allowed: 18.7
Average Margine of Victory: 18.1
Rush YPG: 154.9
Pass YPG: 240.4
Total YPG: 395.3


Games allowing over 100 rush yards - 6
Games allowing over 300 pass yards - 6
Pass Yards Allowed Total : 3575
Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 255.4
Pass TDs Allowed: 20
Defensive Interceptions: 25
Rush Yards Allowed Total: 1279
Rush Yards Allowed Per Game: 91.36
Rush TDs Allowed: 10
Total TDs Allowed: 31
Total Yards Allowed Per Game: 346.71
Total Sacks: 22
Turn Over Margin: 1.21
Total Offensive Turnovers: 19 (9 Fumble, 10 INT)
TFL: 50
Sacks Allowed: 17


Defensive Ranking: 63
Offensive Ranking: 9


As of 11/23/09 - Victories against opponents with top 25 GPI - 7:
#6 App State
#9 SDSU
#10 EWU
#12 Weber St
#16 SFA
#19 Montana St
#22 NAU




IMO, both teams have played similar competition... I'd give Montana the edge in offensive production, they seem to have more balanced passing and rush attack while Nova seems to rely more heavily on the Run than the pass. Villanova gets the nod in the defensive category, appear to have a better Rush and Pass defense, allow fewer TDs and put more pressure on the QB/backfield.





So, who do I pick?






































As of Wednesday, December 16th, 2009 (Time Stamped by mensa puzzle of the day calendar and my most current issue of "Science" magazine)... JMU DJ Predicts Villanova will win the FCS National Championship game.


This has absolutely nothing to do with all those stats up there, it's just my brother provided me with this sweet Villanova shirt while AZ has been taking his good ol' time shipping me that Montana hat. My prediction may change later this week pending the speed of shipping from Arizona to Georgia.


... By the way, the answer is 17,22,27,32,37

[andy7171]

You should have Nova playing #8 UNH and #5 W&M twice. F'ing weak CAA scheduling!

[wideright82]

I was hoping you were wrong on the Mensa puzzle, but like a good Jew, you got the damn numbers spot on.

[JMU DJ]

You should have Nova playing #8 UNH and #5 W&M twice. F'ing weak CAA scheduling!

Correct Andy, make that 8 times Nova has played top 25 GPI teams.

[bandl]

You should have Nova playing #8 UNH and #5 W&M twice. F'ing weak CAA scheduling!

Correct Andy, make that 8 times Nova has played top 25 GPI teams.

Your first post says Victories against opponents with top 25 GPI

Ass.

[JMU DJ]

Correct Andy, make that 8 times Nova has played top 25 GPI teams.

Your first post says Victories against opponents with top 25 GPI

Ass.

Well then make it 7 victories... even with the Griz. Besides, like I said... these stats didn't factor into my decision.

[bandl]

So, sounds like people from both sides are selling the other team short so I decided to do some analytical analysis.


First up - Villanova:


Average Points Scored : 32
Average Points Allowed: 13.6
Average Margine of Victory: 18.4
Rush YPG: 232.4
Pass YPG: 145.6
Total YPG: 378.0

Games allowing over 100 rush yards - 3
Games allowing over 300 pass yards - 4 (two games in the 290's)
Pass Yards Allowed Total : 3371
Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 240.8
Pass TDs Allowed: 14
Defensive Interceptions: 18
Rush Yards Allowed Total: 941
Rush Yards Allowed Per Game: 67.21
Rush TDs Allowed: 8
Total TDs Allowed: 22
Total Yards Allowed Per Game: 308.01
Total Sacks: 37
Turn Over Margin: 1
Total Offensive Turnovers: 12 (8 Fumble, 4 INT)
TFL: 70
Sacks Allowed: 36

Defensive Ranking: 29
Offensive Ranking: 27

As of 11/23/09 - Victories against opponents with top 25 GPI - 6:
#2 Richmond
#5 William & Mary
#8 New Hampshire
#17 James Madison
#18 Delaware
#20 Penn


Now - Montana:


Average Points Scored : 36.9
Average Points Allowed: 18.7
Average Margine of Victory: 18.1
Rush YPG: 154.9
Pass YPG: 240.4
Total YPG: 395.3


Games allowing over 100 rush yards - 6
Games allowing over 300 pass yards - 6
Pass Yards Allowed Total : 3575
Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 255.4
Pass TDs Allowed: 20
Defensive Interceptions: 25
Rush Yards Allowed Total: 1279
Rush Yards Allowed Per Game: 91.36
Rush TDs Allowed: 10
Total TDs Allowed: 31
Total Yards Allowed Per Game: 346.71
Total Sacks: 22
Turn Over Margin: 1.21
Total Offensive Turnovers: 19 (9 Fumble, 10 INT)
TFL: 50
Sacks Allowed: 17


Defensive Ranking: 63
Offensive Ranking: 9


As of 11/23/09 - Victories against opponents with top 25 GPI - 7:
#6 App State
#9 SDSU
#10 EWU
#12 Weber St
#16 SFA
#19 Montana St
#22 NAU




IMO, both teams have played similar competition... I'd give Montana the edge in offensive production, they seem to have more balanced passing and rush attack while Nova seems to rely more heavily on the Run than the pass. Villanova gets the nod in the defensive category, appear to have a better Rush and Pass defense, allow fewer TDs and put more pressure on the QB/backfield.





So, who do I pick?






































As of Wednesday, December 16th, 2009 (Time Stamped by mensa puzzle of the day calendar and my most current issue of "Science" magazine)... JMU DJ Predicts Villanova will win the FCS National Championship game.


This has absolutely nothing to do with all those stats up there, it's just my brother provided me with this sweet Villanova shirt while AZ has been taking his good ol' time shipping me that Montana hat. My prediction may change later this week pending the speed of shipping from Arizona to Georgia.


... By the way, the answer is 17,22,27,32,37

[nwFL Griz]

You should have Nova playing #8 UNH and #5 W&M twice. F'ing weak CAA scheduling!

Correct Andy, make that 8 times Nova has played top 25 GPI teams.

edit: Bandl beat me to it.


Yeah, but it wasn't how many they played, it was how many they won (so you could have W&M x2, but not UNH). Besides Andy's point about scheduling is ridiculous, since they had zero control over either the conference schedule, or the playoff schedule.

But, I get it, CAA rules.

[bandl]

Your first post says Victories against opponents with top 25 GPI

Ass.

Well then make it 7 victories... even with the Griz. Besides, like I said... these stats didn't factor into my decision.

What's the question to your answer Trabek?

[JMU DJ]

Correct Andy, make that 8 times Nova has played top 25 GPI teams.

Yeah, but it wasn't how many they played, it was how many they won (so you could have W&M x2, but not UNH). Besides Andy's point about scheduling is ridiculous, since they had zero control over either the conference schedule, or the playoff schedule.

But, I get it, CAA rules.

Hey Chaz, did you read my original post?

IMO, both teams have played similar competition...

[JMU DJ]

Well then make it 7 victories... even with the Griz. Besides, like I said... these stats didn't factor into my decision.

What's the question to your answer Trabek?

I meant "even" in the sense that 7 = 7, not in the sense that that Nova will only have 7 wins vs top 25 GPI teams after they play the Griz.

[BDKJMU]

So, sounds like people from both sides are selling the other team short so I decided to do some analytical analysis.


First up - Villanova:
As of 11/23/09 - Victories against opponents with top 25 GPI - 7:
#2 Richmond
#5 William & Mary (twice)
#8 New Hampshire
#17 James Madison
#18 Delaware
#20 Penn

IMO, both teams have played similar competition...

You forgot to mention UNH's win over 9-3 bowl bound Temple.

SOS isn't even close here. Games played vs:
Top 5 GPI: Nova 2, Montana 0
Top 10 GPI: Nova 4, Montana 3
Top 25 GPI: Nova 8, Montana 7
I-A: Nova 1, Montana 0

Div II Nova 0, Montana 1

[JMU DJ]

So, sounds like people from both sides are selling the other team short so I decided to do some analytical analysis.


First up - Villanova:
As of 11/23/09 - Victories against opponents with top 25 GPI - 7:
#2 Richmond
#5 William & Mary (twice)
#8 New Hampshire
#17 James Madison
#18 Delaware
#20 Penn

IMO, both teams have played similar competition...

You forgot to mention UNH's win over 9-3 bowl bound Temple.

SOS isn't even close here. Games played vs:
Top 5 GPI: Nova 2, Montana 0
Top 10 GPI: Nova 4, Montana 3
Top 25 GPI: Nova 8, Montana 7
I-A: Nova 1, Montana 0

Div II Nova 0, Montana 1

Interesting perspective... though I think it was Villanova that beat Temple, who surprisingly had a good season in the MAC


I didn't want to get into comparing the average GPI of the teams played, I assume with URI, Townson, Northeastern and Lehigh... those would balance out with Portland St, Western, Idaho St, No Colorado... I'm sure someone could do the math to prove me wrong and show that Villanova played teams with an average GPI of 1.0 higher than Montana's combined opponents.

Also, as mentioned, Nova lost to one of those top 10 GPI teams... so even though they may have played an extra team, they only came away with 7 wins, same as Montana's 7 wins.

[andy7171]

Correct Andy, make that 8 times Nova has played top 25 GPI teams.

edit: Bandl beat me to it.


Yeah, but it wasn't how many they played, it was how many they won (so you could have W&M x2, but not UNH). Besides Andy's point about scheduling is ridiculous, since they had zero control over either the conference schedule, or the playoff schedule.

But, I get it, CAA rules.

Did this guy just say one of my posts was ridiculous!?!