Playoff Projections- Nov. 8

[native]

You think in the minds of the selection committee that a 7-3 (DI) EWU has a better shot than a 7-4 WSU with the head-to-head win on the road against the Eagles? You think that EWU's DII win counts for something in the minds of the selection committee?

Head to head counts in determining the AQ if there's a tie within the conference. The selection committee will select the best available teams from the remaining field. Included in that is record, signature wins, but also performance against other playoff contender teams. WSU got crushed by Montana and beat at home by MSU. EWU got beat at home by WSU, but beat MSU, and played a very close game with Montana. I'm not the committee, but I'd say EWU's performance warrants an at large over Weber.

Head to head will count in the committee's musings, but will not be the only factor. The remaining two games are important to both EWU and Weber.

[Col Hogan]

Why would a 7 - 3 EWU or a 7 - 4 Weber have a better shot than a 7 - 4 UMass with a quality win over a current top 10 FCS team???

Coin toss.

Agreed

[kalm]

The same thing occurrs with a 7-4 NAU and an 8-3 MSU with a win against the Griz.

And what if MSU is in the mix with an 8-3 EWU and a 7-4 Weber?

Native's right - coin toss.

[native]

The same thing occurrs with a 7-4 NAU and an 8-3 MSU with a win against the Griz.

And what if MSU is in the mix with an 8-3 EWU and a 7-4 Weber?

Native's right - coin toss.

If Northern Arizona stays true to form and implodes for the remainder of the season, it is entirely likely that both Eastern Washington and Weber will end the season with 7 DI wins. Tough call, but in this scenario, I do not see the selection committee limiting the Big Sky to only the autobid. Of course, it depends on the performance of the other bubble teams.

LOTS of credible bubble teams this year:
Weber
Eastern Washington
UMass
Delaware
Liberty
McNeese
FAMU
...

[Screamin_Eagle174]

The same thing occurrs with a 7-4 NAU and an 8-3 MSU with a win against the Griz.

And what if MSU is in the mix with an 8-3 EWU and a 7-4 Weber?

Native's right - coin toss.

If Northern Arizona stays true to form and implodes for the remainder of the season, it is entirely likely that both Eastern Washington and Weber will end the season with 7 DI wins. Tough call, but in this scenario, I do not see the selection committee limiting the Big Sky to only the autobid. Of course, it depends on the performance of the other bubble teams.

LOTS of credible bubble teams this year:
Weber
Eastern Washington
UMass
Delaware
Liberty
McNeese
FAMU
...

The next two weeks and selection Sunday will be very interesting!

[kalm]

If Northern Arizona stays true to form and implodes for the remainder of the season, it is entirely likely that both Eastern Washington and Weber will end the season with 7 DI wins. Tough call, but in this scenario, I do not see the selection committee limiting the Big Sky to only the autobid. Of course, it depends on the performance of the other bubble teams.

LOTS of credible bubble teams this year:
Weber
Eastern Washington
UMass
Delaware
Liberty
McNeese
FAMU
...

The next two weeks and selection Sunday will be very interesting!

Among other scenarios, an 11-0 Montana, 8-3 EWU, 7-4 Weber, 7-4 MSU, and 5-6 Sac st. and NAU looks pretty damn good and the conference GPI would be in the top 3. A similar breakdown would happen with MSU and EWU at 8-3.

I still say there's a chance the Big Sky gets 3 in, especially if UNI were to lose one of its two remaining or at the expense of the Southland becoming a 1 bid.

[POTTNUZ]

I THINK SCSU HAS A CHANCE TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME. THEY ARE REALLY GOOD THIS YEAR!!! IN MY OPINION IF FAMU MAKES THE PLAYOFFS THEY WILL GET CLOBBERED CUZ THEIR DEF SUCKS. OFFENSE IS GOOD BUT DEFENSE SUCKS. I KNOW EVERYONE WILL SAY THE MEAC SUCKS AND THEY DON'T DESERVE TO BE IN THE PLAYOFFS, BUT WHO KNOWS THEY MIGHT SUPRISE YA!

[ToTheLeft]

3 from the Big Sky would be a scheduling nightmare... you have to send two of those three east, and bring someone to Montana... I think that alone is enough to make the committee hesitant. EWU would have to travel very, very far to find a host, as would Weber, and only one of them could go to the Southland champ, if the Southland champ is even going to try and host. EWU @ SIU and Weber @ McNeese (just as examples) with an east coast team flying to Montana is a TON of travel.

[kalm]

3 from the Big Sky would be a scheduling nightmare... you have to send two of those three east, and bring someone to Montana... I think that alone is enough to make the committee hesitant. EWU would have to travel very, very far to find a host, as would Weber, and only one of them could go to the Southland champ, if the Southland champ is even going to try and host. EWU @ SIU and Weber @ McNeese (just as examples) with an east coast team flying to Montana is a TON of travel.

Dear Big Sky Conference,

Though you have 3 deserving teams, the travel is just too hard and expensive for us offer a third bid. Better luck next year.

Toodles,

NCAA





MSU could out bid a number of schools to host as an at-large. They average around 13,000 in attendance. That's what happened in 2005 when EWU went to UNI, and Montana and MSU hosted first round games. Besides, they'd more than likely have to fly a Southland at-large team somewhere any way.

[ToTheLeft]

I'm not saying it would be right. I'm just saying it wouldn't surprise me for that to be a reason. Not an official reason, of course, but a reason.

[JayJ79]

I still say there's a chance the Big Sky gets 3 in, especially if UNI were to lose one of its two remaining or at the expense of the Southland becoming a 1 bid.

If UNI loses to WIU at home next week, they don't deserve the playoffs anyway.
Though closing out the regular season at Illinois State could be a bit more challenging if UNI makes some of the same mistakes they've made in the past month

[Screamin_Eagle174]

3 from the Big Sky would be a scheduling nightmare... you have to send two of those three east, and bring someone to Montana... I think that alone is enough to make the committee hesitant. EWU would have to travel very, very far to find a host, as would Weber, and only one of them could go to the Southland champ, if the Southland champ is even going to try and host. EWU @ SIU and Weber @ McNeese (just as examples) with an east coast team flying to Montana is a TON of travel.

Dear Big Sky Conference,

Though you have 3 deserving teams, the travel is just too hard and expensive for us offer a third bid. Better luck next year.

Toodles,

NCAA


MSU wasn't in the 2005 playoffs...




MSU could out bid a number of schools to host as an at-large. They average around 13,000 in attendance. That's what happened in 2005 when EWU went to UNI, and Montana and MSU hosted first round games. Besides, they'd more than likely have to fly a Southland at-large team somewhere any way.

MSU wasn't in the 2005 playoffs.

[kalm]

My bad. I was conflating 2005 and 2006. Still, MSU could host.

[CatMom]

Indeed this weekend will clarify the SLC. If SFA wins out and TXST does likewise, TXST will get the conference titled based on head to head. HOWEVER, In the SLC the team that has not been to the playoffs the longest gets the auto, so that would be SFA. It sucks, but that's the way they do it. So where would that leaveTXST? Would the committee pass over TXST in favor of McNeese if TXST beat UCA, SFA and MSU?

IF SELA wins out and TXST wins out SELA gets the auto bid (with only 6 DI wins) and we would be 8-3, having beaten the same teams as above. Does TXST still get overlooked?

I already see that SFA's NAIA win carries more weight in the polls (as part of that 7-2 record) than our loss to # 6 TCU (yeah it's a loss but we are feeling better about it as the season goes on because:
Some TCU stats... they are 9-0... and still no one has scored more than 17 points on them except for our 21 points so far this season and in case someone drops "well, they beat us by 35 points tho"

#6 TCU has beaten...
Colorado State by 38 points
Brigham Young by 31 points
UNLV by 41 points
& San Diego State by 43 points)

I'm putting the cart before the horse here but, just wondering.

[Grizo406]

My bad. I was conflating 2005 and 2006. Still, MSU could host.

I love it when someone uses "conflating" in a sentence!

Nice job, kalm!

[Screamin_Eagle174]

My bad. I was conflating 2005 and 2006. Still, MSU could host.

I love that EWU grads are so fucking smart!

Nice job, guys

Thank you, Grizo!

[kalm]

Sorry, I was using a bit of both seasons and conflating just happened to fit better than morphing or confusing.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Sorry, I was using a bit of both seasons and conflating just happened to fit better than morphing or confusing.

100 post mark. Congrats. Now vote in the poll!

[McNeese75]

Indeed this weekend will clarify the SLC. If SFA wins out and TXST does likewise, TXST will get the conference titled based on head to head. HOWEVER, In the SLC the team that has not been to the playoffs the longest gets the auto, so that would be SFA. It sucks, but that's the way they do it. So where would that leaveTXST? Would the committee pass over TXST in favor of McNeese if TXST beat UCA, SFA and MSU?

IF SELA wins out and TXST wins out SELA gets the auto bid (with only 6 DI wins) and we would be 8-3, having beaten the same teams as above. Does TXST still get overlooked?

I already see that SFA's NAIA win carries more weight in the polls (as part of that 7-2 record) than our loss to # 6 TCU (yeah it's a loss but we are feeling better about it as the season goes on because:
Some TCU stats... they are 9-0... and still no one has scored more than 17 points on them except for our 21 points so far this season and in case someone drops "well, they beat us by 35 points tho"

#6 TCU has beaten...
Colorado State by 38 points
Brigham Young by 31 points
UNLV by 41 points
& San Diego State by 43 points)

I'm putting the cart before the horse here but, just wondering.

The tie break you are referring only applies to a 3 way tie. Head to head rules when two teams are tied.

You have a big game this weekend, don't look to far down the road too soon

[slycat]

I THINK SCSU HAS A CHANCE TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME. THEY ARE REALLY GOOD THIS YEAR!!! IN MY OPINION IF FAMU MAKES THE PLAYOFFS THEY WILL GET CLOBBERED CUZ THEIR DEF SUCKS. OFFENSE IS GOOD BUT DEFENSE SUCKS. I KNOW EVERYONE WILL SAY THE MEAC SUCKS AND THEY DON'T DESERVE TO BE IN THE PLAYOFFS, BUT WHO KNOWS THEY MIGHT SUPRISE YA!

I would not want to play SCSU in the first round.

[CatMom]

Indeed this weekend will clarify the SLC. If SFA wins out and TXST does likewise, TXST will get the conference titled based on head to head. HOWEVER, In the SLC the team that has not been to the playoffs the longest gets the auto, so that would be SFA. It sucks, but that's the way they do it. So where would that leaveTXST? Would the committee pass over TXST in favor of McNeese if TXST beat UCA, SFA and MSU?

IF SELA wins out and TXST wins out SELA gets the auto bid (with only 6 DI wins) and we would be 8-3, having beaten the same teams as above. Does TXST still get overlooked?

I already see that SFA's NAIA win carries more weight in the polls (as part of that 7-2 record) than our loss to # 6 TCU (yeah it's a loss but we are feeling better about it as the season goes on because:
Some TCU stats... they are 9-0... and still no one has scored more than 17 points on them except for our 21 points so far this season and in case someone drops "well, they beat us by 35 points tho"

#6 TCU has beaten...
Colorado State by 38 points
Brigham Young by 31 points
UNLV by 41 points
& San Diego State by 43 points)

I'm putting the cart before the horse here but, just wondering.

The tie break you are referring only applies to a 3 way tie. Head to head rules when two teams are tied.

You have a big game this weekend, don't look to far down the road too soon

That's why I put that last part about the cart in there.
You gonna be there? I won 2 tickets to the game at our watch party last night. Saves me some money

[McNeese75]

The tie break you are referring only applies to a 3 way tie. Head to head rules when two teams are tied.

You have a big game this weekend, don't look to far down the road too soon

That's why I put that last part about the cart in there.
You gonna be there? I won 2 tickets to the game at our watch party last night. Saves me some money

Yep, we will be there. Driving in to SA on Friday. I will pick up tickets tomorrow

[BlueHen86]

If Delaware wins it's last 2 games, I have no doubt that they will be in the playoffs at 8-3.

They play at Navy and at Villanova and will likely be underdogs in both games. I'm glad that Navy beat Notre Dame on Saturday, they may be in for a let down against the Hens.

Villanova is a rivalry and anything can happen.

I don't expect the Hens to win out and make the playoffs (they are far more likely to finish 0-2), but I haven't thrown in the towel just yet.

[ToTheLeft]

My picks (based on predictions of future events):

CAA: William and Mary
Big Sky: Montana
MEAC: SCSU
MVC: SIU
OVC: EIU
PAT: Lafayette
SOCON: Elon
Southland: S.F.A.

At-Larges:
Villanova
Richmond
New Hampshire
South Dakota State
McNeese State
Appalachian State
Liberty
UNI

Those Missing Out:
Weber State- Loses to Cal Poly
Eastern Washington- Loses to SUU
Montana State- Loses to Griz
Northern Arizona- Loses to EWU
Delaware- Loses to Navy, beats Nova

Brackets

EIU at #1 SIU
Richmond at App

UNH at #4 Elon
Lafayette at Nova

SFA at #2 Griz
McNeese at SDSU

Liberty at #3 William and Mary
SCSU at UNI

I am a noob at the brackets, but I tried at least... haha.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

My picks (based on predictions of future events):

CAA: William and Mary
Big Sky: Montana
MEAC: SCSU
MVC: SIU
OVC: EIU
PAT: Lafayette
SOCON: Elon
Southland: S.F.A.

At-Larges:
Villanova
Richmond
New Hampshire
South Dakota State
McNeese State
Appalachian State
Liberty
UNI

Those Missing Out:
Weber State- Loses to Cal Poly
Eastern Washington- Loses to SUU
Montana State- Loses to Griz
Northern Arizona- Loses to EWU
Delaware- Loses to Navy, beats Nova

Brackets

EIU at #1 SIU
Richmond at App

UNH at #4 Elon
Lafayette at Nova

SFA at #2 Griz
McNeese at SDSU

Liberty at #3 William and Mary
SCSU at UNI

I am a noob at the brackets, but I tried at least... haha.

Praying for a miracle dog eat dog finish out west huh?



Not gonna happen. One team will emerge from the clutter and be in the playoffs