Playoffs: Where we stand (10/31)

[Mike Johnson]

Out of the 4 Big Sky teams that need to win out (against FCS competition) to be eligible and likely to be selected into the 16, I think EWU has the best odds (@SUU, @NAU), with MSU right behind (@PSU, Sac, #2UM) and Weber in third (NAU, #?Cal Poly).

On the road at NAU or home against NAU? At SUU (which lost by one point at Cal Poly) or home against Cal Poly? I don't see much daylight between EWU and WSU in what they have to do. Personally, I rather have the must win games at home than on the road.

I think MSU having to beat PSU on the road and home against Sacramento State and Montana is far harder than either the other two.

[slulionsfan]

Didn't see anywhere in the thread where this is just about "at-large" bids...secondly, I don't see it as a "wild confluence of events" at all...we play two of the last three at home, including SFA and McNeese still has to play Texas State and UCA...they could easily lose one of those...and we match up very well with SFA...not making a prediction one way or the other, we still have to play NW State on the road next week, but we're still very much in the mix.

I think you have come up with the perfect definition of "wild confluence of events" here when you start describing what you MUST do to gain the autobid...

Odds are against your team...

If you consider even odds a "wild confluence" then so be it.

[LastMinuteman]

Do you take the 3 loss MVFC team or 4 loss Deleware, UMass or Cal Poly?

Cal Poly is out, they have a Division II win and can't get to 7. Delaware also has a Division II win and will be out if they have 1 more loss (dropping to 4 losses overall). UMass would still be in the discussion at 7-4, but I'd say UMass's best hope involves EWU losing at NAU, not getting picked over a 8-3 UNI team.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Jesus H Christ Bench.............................spot on.


I know what is for sure - at least one undeserving team is going to get an at-large this year. I hope its a team from a power conference and not a team with a patsy schedule.

Maybe it will be a team like Montana St that bids 200K to host a 1st round game, and they can buy their bid again like they did several years ago!!

The bids aren't opened until after the field is selected so how could they have bought their way in?


Great work again Bench. Very nice job and a great read my friend.

[Gil Dobie]

Do you take the 3 loss MVFC team or 4 loss Deleware, UMass or Cal Poly?

3 loss mvfc or Bsc

Just say the MVFC has UNI at 8-3, lets compare records vs DI teams

UNI 8-3 vs DI, and 8-2 vs FCS

Best outcome for each of the Big Sky teams, and NAU loses to Mississippi. This is the best record each team could possibly have otherwise. They won't finish this way because NAU plays Weber St & EWU etc.

Weber St 7-4 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
EWU 7-3 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
NAU 7-4 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
MSU 7-3 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS

The only common opponent is South Dakota with Montana St.
UNI won 66-7
Montana St won 31-24 in OT

IMO, the 8-3 MVFC team gets selected, but who knows.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Out of the 4 Big Sky teams that need to win out (against FCS competition) to be eligible and likely to be selected into the 16, I think EWU has the best odds (@SUU, @NAU), with MSU right behind (@PSU, Sac, #2UM) and Weber in third (NAU, #?Cal Poly).

On the road at NAU or home against NAU? At SUU (which lost by one point at Cal Poly) or home against Cal Poly? I don't see much daylight between EWU and WSU in what they have to do. Personally, I rather have the must win games at home than on the road.

I think MSU having to beat PSU on the road and home against Sacramento State and Montana is far harder than either the other two.

I'm glad that both of our remaining games are on the road. The Cal game aside, EWU has played outstanding football on the road this year and horrible at home.

Home
WOU - Let D-II hang around for 3 quarters before putting them away, Nichols with 2 picks
UNC - Offense was pathetic... only put up 16 against the Bears.
WSU - Committed 4 Fumbles, 3 INTs, only 1 TD.
MSU - Defense allowed nearly 600 yards of offense.

Away (or neutral)
Sac - Put up near record 56 points, Jones had 190 yards rushing, 4 TDs
ISU - 38-3, Jones had 168 yards rushing and 3 TDs
UM - Outplayed Montana in 1st Downs, rushing yards, passing yards, total yards, and TOP. No turnovers, only lost by 7.
PSU - Picked off PSU 5 times, kept them out of the endzone, over 400 yards passing, 47-10 final.

[danefan]

Maybe it will be a team like Montana St that bids 200K to host a 1st round game, and they can buy their bid again like they did several years ago!!

The bids aren't opened until after the field is selected so how could they have bought their way in?


Great work again Bench. Very nice job and a great read my friend.

I didn't mean that statement as the major conference would "buy there way in". I hope a major conference gets the bid, because there is HUGE gap between the upper conferences and the mid-level conferences this yaer. HUGE!

[CatMom]

[Appaholic]

I think you have come up with the perfect definition of "wild confluence of events" here when you start describing what you MUST do to gain the autobid...

Odds are against your team...

If you consider even odds a "wild confluence" then so be it.

Even odds? Guess you're speaking in a "on-any-given-day,-a-team-can-win" odds, not the Vegas style....in Vegas (ie; normal speak) odds are against SELA getting the autobid as it isn't entirely in your control....even if you win out, you don't get the bid...someone else has to lose....ie; "wild confluence of events"...let's not trip on semantics on a football site....it was not meant as a slight towards SELA, but more a recognition that SELA does not solely control it's own destiny....

[bench]

If you consider even odds a "wild confluence" then so be it.

Even odds? Guess you're speaking in a "on-any-given-day,-a-team-can-win" odds, not the Vegas style....in Vegas (ie; normal speak) odds are against SELA getting the autobid as it isn't entirely in your control....even if you win out, you don't get the bid...someone else has to lose....ie; "wild confluence of events"...let's not trip on semantics on a football site....it was not meant as a slight towards SELA, but more a recognition that SELA does not solely control it's own destiny....

I think that sums it up nicely.

[slulionsfan]

If you consider even odds a "wild confluence" then so be it.

Even odds? Guess you're speaking in a "on-any-given-day,-a-team-can-win" odds, not the Vegas style....in Vegas (ie; normal speak) odds are against SELA getting the autobid as it isn't entirely in your control....even if you win out, you don't get the bid...someone else has to lose....ie; "wild confluence of events"...let's not trip on semantics on a football site....it was not meant as a slight towards SELA, but more a recognition that SELA does not solely control it's own destiny....

We'll agree to disagree on this one...the point of my initial response was that we're very much in the mix for the autobid and happen to be in better shape than Texas State is...they were mentioned in the original post and we were not...if you were merely speaking of who has a chance at an at-large should they win out and not get the autobid, then I apologize for the confusion.

[JayJ79]

Of the stragglers, I think the ones that the rest of the field would least like to see get in would be UD and UNI.

Yes, the rest of the field would rather face Pioneer teams.

[kalm]

3 loss mvfc or Bsc

Just say the MVFC has UNI at 8-3, lets compare records vs DI teams

UNI 8-3 vs DI, and 8-2 vs FCS

Best outcome for each of the Big Sky teams, and NAU loses to Mississippi. This is the best record each team could possibly have otherwise. They won't finish this way because NAU plays Weber St & EWU etc.

Weber St 7-4 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
EWU 7-3 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
NAU 7-4 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
MSU 7-3 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS

The only common opponent is South Dakota with Montana St.
UNI won 66-7
Montana St won 31-24 in OT

IMO, the 8-3 MVFC team gets selected, but who knows.

I've mentioned this in another thread, but beyond the "any team with less than 7 DI wins will be in serious jeopardy of not being considered for an at-large bid" soft requirement, I would like to think the committee takes the time in considering the quality of DI wins. One of UNI's "DI" wins was against St. Francis, PA from the NEC, a 2-6 team from a conference that this year offers 28 scholarships. By comparison Montana State and EWU played DII's Dixie State and Western Oregon of the NWAC which offer 24 scholarships (DII schools can offer to 36). Dixie is 4-5 and Western Oregon is 5-4 in a conference that features #1 ranked Central Washington who has a couple of FCS wins in the past few years including a 3 point loss at Montana two years ago.

I would submit that if the committee does their homework, UNI's extra DI win in your scenario is not a black and white issue in comparing two teams. In truth their team and conference GPI would have more to do with them getting the nod. For that matter their near upset of Iowa should have more impact.

[JayJ79]

Just say the MVFC has UNI at 8-3, lets compare records vs DI teams

UNI 8-3 vs DI, and 8-2 vs FCS

Best outcome for each of the Big Sky teams, and NAU loses to Mississippi. This is the best record each team could possibly have otherwise. They won't finish this way because NAU plays Weber St & EWU etc.

Weber St 7-4 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
EWU 7-3 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
NAU 7-4 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
MSU 7-3 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS

The only common opponent is South Dakota with Montana St.
UNI won 66-7
Montana St won 31-24 in OT

IMO, the 8-3 MVFC team gets selected, but who knows.

I've mentioned this in another thread, but beyond the "any team with less than 7 DI wins will be in serious jeopardy of not being considered for an at-large bid" soft requirement, I would like to think the committee takes the time in considering the quality of DI wins. One of UNI's "DI" wins was against St. Francis, PA from the NEC, a 2-6 team from a conference that this year offers 28 scholarships. By comparison Montana State and EWU played DII's Dixie State and Western Oregon of the NWAC which offer 24 scholarships (DII schools can offer to 36). Dixie is 4-5 and Western Oregon is 5-4 in a conference that features #1 ranked Central Washington who has a couple of FCS wins in the past few years including a 3 point loss at Montana two years ago.

I would submit that if the committee does their homework, UNI's extra DI win in your scenario is not a black and white issue in comparing two teams. In truth their team and conference GPI would have more to do with them getting the nod. For that matter their near upset of Iowa should have more impact.

So using that logic....
why in the world is the NEC getting an autobid next year, when MOST of their wins are against teams with less-than-the-full-complement of scholarships?

[kalm]

I've mentioned this in another thread, but beyond the "any team with less than 7 DI wins will be in serious jeopardy of not being considered for an at-large bid" soft requirement, I would like to think the committee takes the time in considering the quality of DI wins. One of UNI's "DI" wins was against St. Francis, PA from the NEC, a 2-6 team from a conference that this year offers 28 scholarships. By comparison Montana State and EWU played DII's Dixie State and Western Oregon of the NWAC which offer 24 scholarships (DII schools can offer to 36). Dixie is 4-5 and Western Oregon is 5-4 in a conference that features #1 ranked Central Washington who has a couple of FCS wins in the past few years including a 3 point loss at Montana two years ago.

I would submit that if the committee does their homework, UNI's extra DI win in your scenario is not a black and white issue in comparing two teams. In truth their team and conference GPI would have more to do with them getting the nod. For that matter their near upset of Iowa should have more impact.

So using that logic....
why in the world is the NEC getting an autobid next year, when MOST of their wins are against teams with less-than-the-full-complement of scholarships?

I'm sensing a trap with that question, so I will simply answer I don't know. But furthering that same logic, why wouldn't a 1st or 2nd place NEC or Pioneer leauge team with 8 DI wins get more consideration than a 7-4 CAA team with only 7 DI wins?

[JayJ79]

I'm sensing a trap with that question, so I will simply answer I don't know. But furthering that same logic, why wouldn't a 1st or 2nd place NEC or Pioneer leauge team with 8 DI wins get more consideration than a 7-4 CAA team with only 7 DI wins?

Sounds reasonable to me.

But then I hate the CAA.

[danefan]

Just say the MVFC has UNI at 8-3, lets compare records vs DI teams

UNI 8-3 vs DI, and 8-2 vs FCS

Best outcome for each of the Big Sky teams, and NAU loses to Mississippi. This is the best record each team could possibly have otherwise. They won't finish this way because NAU plays Weber St & EWU etc.

Weber St 7-4 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
EWU 7-3 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
NAU 7-4 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS
MSU 7-3 vs D1, and 7-2 vs FCS

The only common opponent is South Dakota with Montana St.
UNI won 66-7
Montana St won 31-24 in OT

IMO, the 8-3 MVFC team gets selected, but who knows.

I've mentioned this in another thread, but beyond the "any team with less than 7 DI wins will be in serious jeopardy of not being considered for an at-large bid" soft requirement, I would like to think the committee takes the time in considering the quality of DI wins. One of UNI's "DI" wins was against St. Francis, PA from the NEC, a 2-6 team from a conference that this year offers 28 scholarships. By comparison Montana State and EWU played DII's Dixie State and Western Oregon of the NWAC which offer 24 scholarships (DII schools can offer to 36). Dixie is 4-5 and Western Oregon is 5-4 in a conference that features #1 ranked Central Washington who has a couple of FCS wins in the past few years including a 3 point loss at Montana two years ago.

I would submit that if the committee does their homework, UNI's extra DI win in your scenario is not a black and white issue in comparing two teams. In truth their team and conference GPI would have more to do with them getting the nod. For that matter their near upset of Iowa should have more impact.

The committee does not even look at non-DI wins, let alone evaluate them to the extent you are asking. Case in point - last year Maine got a bid over W&M because Maine had 8 DI wins and W&M had 7. That was the committee's rationale. Maine's 8th DI was over Iona.

[Benne]

It wouldn't suprise me to see 2 out of the MVC and 2 out of the Big sky selected just to make scheduling for the selection committee easier. If we have an 8-3 out of both, someone is getting woofed.

[JayJ79]

It wouldn't suprise me to see 2 out of the MVC and 2 out of the Big sky selected just to make scheduling for the selection committee easier. If we have an 8-3 out of both, someone is getting woofed.

how does that make scheduling easier?

[Benne]

It wouldn't suprise me to see 2 out of the MVC and 2 out of the Big sky selected just to make scheduling for the selection committee easier. If we have an 8-3 out of both, someone is getting woofed.

how does that make scheduling easier?

Regional opponents. Conference opponents can't meet in the first round.

[JayJ79]

how does that make scheduling easier?

Regional opponents. Conference opponents can't meet in the first round.

If Eastern Illinois gets the OVC autobid, they'll play SIU (bus trip).
Thus, regardless of whether it is BSC 2, MVFC 2; or BSC 1, MVFC 3, they're going to have to fly at least one eastern team out west (or a western team out east). I don't see there being enough of a convenience factor to influence who gets in.

But who knows.

[native]

...In truth their team and conference GPI would have more to do with them getting the nod. ...The committee does not even look at non-DI wins, let alone evaluate them to the extent you are asking...

The point about DII wins has been articulated a dozen different ways to Eagles fans over the past two weeks, but they have become tone deaf and drunk with their own koolaid.

[BlackFalkin]

although I have lots of college football knowledge, I dont know much about FCS playoffs... (ironic right.. ) anyway... I have some questions.

#1 how many auto bids does each conf get specifically? or does it differ every year? if so what is it based on?
#2 why is the fcs expanding to 20 teams ( i think its great btw)
#3 How are teams 'awarded' home games in the playoffs?
#4 Why does the CAA get sooo many teams in every year? & why does everyone else simply except it?


thanks, I really appreciate it

[danefan]

although I have lots of college football knowledge, I dont know much about FCS playoffs... (ironic right.. ) anyway... I have some questions.

#1 how many auto bids does each conf get specifically? or does it differ every year? if so what is it based on?
#2 why is the fcs expanding to 20 teams ( i think its great btw)
#3 How are teams 'awarded' home games in the playoffs?
#4 Why does the CAA get sooo many teams in every year? & why does everyone else simply except it?


thanks, I really appreciate it

1. there are currently 8 autobids ("AQ"). (Patriot, CAA, Big Sky, MEAC, OVC, SLC, SoCon, MVFC). They are supposed to be determined on a yearly basis, but until a few years ago there were only the above 8 teams that had requested an AQ and thus it was a "rubber stamp" exercise. The NEC bucked the trend and became the 9th. They were denied and prompted all the expansion talk and final approval.

2. The playoffs are expanding to 20 teams to accomodate AQ's for the NEC and Big South. The NEC is currently eligible and the Big South will be eligible next year. Essentially the argument was that in every other sport besides FCS football, all eligible conferences get an AQ. That wasn't happening in FCS football and the NCAA decided it should. It has to be 20, instead of 18, because according to the NCAA bylaws at least half of the field must be reserved for at-large bids. So, 10 AQ's must have 10 at-larges and thus 20. It was a huge hurdle for the NEC because it involved adding an additional week of games to the playoffs which costs the NCAA money.

3. Teams are awarded home games in 2 ways. The four seeds are automatically awarded homes games and are paired with teams closest in geography to them. The remaining 8 teams are paired up based on geography and each team submits a "bid" teh NCAA, essentially guaranteeing attendance figures and paying the NCAA a minimum $$$$. The highest bid between the two teams wins.

4. The CAA gets so many teams in because of the way the 8 remaining at-larges are determined. The Selection Committee is tasked by the NCAA to award the remaining 8 at-large bids to the 8 strongest teams. The last couple of years, the 8 strongest teams have included 3 or 4 CAA teams. When it comes to at-larges, conference affiliation is not considered. Just strength of the team's resume. The comittee has issued guidelines for at-large selection which include positives such as wins over FBS teams and negatives such as less than 7 Division I wins.

[kalm]

...In truth their team and conference GPI would have more to do with them getting the nod. ...The committee does not even look at non-DI wins, let alone evaluate them to the extent you are asking...

The point about DII wins has been articulated a dozen different ways to Eagles fans over the past two weeks, but they have become tone deaf and drunk with their own koolaid.

And it has been articulated back each time that 7 DI wins is part of the selection criteria but not neccessarily a black and white issue when comparing two teams once it's established that both have met it. I'm not denying the criteria exists, my quibble is with the rule itself and the assumption made over and over again that a greater amount of DI wins automatically = an at large, no need to look further. If that were the case, the Patriot and NEC would be getting more teams in on a consistent basis than the BSC.

Some east coasters who's teams benefit from the ability of scheduling non-schollie D1's happen to agree with that this needs to be changed. If the committee does not evaluate and compare all wins and losses when deciding between two teams they are not doing their job. Another example would be Montana State getting an at-large in 2006 with a loss to a very good DII Chadron State, but a win agianst FBS Colorado. I'm quite sure they got the bid ahead of several FCS teams with 8 DI wins that year but without as good a resume.

Don't worry Native, a 7-4 Weber team would get the nod instead of an 8-3 EWU because they have the same amount of DI wins and beat EWU head to head. And UNI would not get the nod based on their extra DI win against St. Francis but because of a slightly better resume.

Kool-aid from the Church of Reason and Cult of Fairness in Selecting the Best 8 Teams.