CAA Forecast - James Madison

[jstclmet]

The Pluses:

1. 13 Starters returning (7 Off + 6 Def).
2. O/L returns @ 3/5's strength with LT 6'4 300, LG Walker 6'3 325, & RG Brooks 6'3 385.
3. Off backup skill players are experienced and capable.

The negatives:
1. The loss of RL (aka Superman) will hurt as he accounted for more than half of JMU's total yardage last year.
2. JMU's LB & secondary corp are very thin.
3. JMU's taken hits personnel wise for a variety of reasons and cannot afford too many more losses.

The Questions:
1. The QB job is Dudzik's to lose, although Thorpe is giving him a good run for the money. Once JMU starts playing, they will not have a Bye week.
1a. What week will Dudzik lose his job to Thorpe??
1b. Will Dudzik lose his job due to injury or ineffective play??

2. Last year, JMU was able to snatch victory from defeat with last second heroics. Will JMU's forturnes be reversed this year?? In other words, will JMU be able to protect a lead??

The Schedule:

9/5 Bye

9/12 Sat @ Maryland. JMU plays the Terps tough for a half trailing 7 - 10, but the Terps pull away late enroute to a 27 - 7 win.

9/19 Sat vs VMI. JMU sprints out to a 31 - 10 win in front of the home crowd as Dudzil looks brilliant both running and passing.

9/26 Sat @ Liberty. On the road against Defending Big South Champ, Liberty. The Flames want to show the world that they can play with the big guys and erupt early 13 - 10 HT lead. However, JMU plays keep away with it's running game in addition to scoring to 2nd half TD's to win 24 - 20.

10/3 Sat @ Hofstra. The Dukes travel to Long Island to find an inspired Pride team. The Pride battles valiantly but comes up short 21 - 17 as JMU proves to be too strong and fast for the Pride to contain.

10/10 Sat vs Richmond. Family weekend, and a game where the visitor usually wins. With the score tied @ 21 - 21 with seconds remaining, UR kicks the winnng FG to keep the visitor win streak alive.

10/17 Sat. vs Villanova. Homecoming. JMU is currently enjoying a 3 game win streak vs the Cats. The Cats come out clawing first to take a 14 - 0 lead, but the Dukes battle back to go into HT tield @ 14 each. At the end of 3, the dukes take a 24 - 21 lead. However, the Cats run off 10 unaswered in the 4th with their passing game to give the Dukes their 2nd home loss in as many weeks 31 - 24.

10/24 Sat. @ William & Mary. For the 3rd week in a row, the Dukes face a top 25 team from the CAA South. The Tribe is fired up as they have not beaten the Dukes in 4 years. The Tribe is also coming of a Bye week and is rested, and needs this win as they try and make the playoffs. Having no Bye week, fatigue begins to show on the Dukes as they go down 21 - 24.

10/31 Sat @ Delaware. In a packed house at the "Tub", everyone in attendance watches a nip & tuck battle as these warriors fight it out on the field. As UD drives to get into position for the game winning FG, a late TO gives the ball back to JMU who runs out the clock and wins 28 - 27.

11/7 vs Maine. Needing to win to keep its playoff hopes alive, The Dukes explode for 45 points enroute to a 45 - 17 win.

11/14 @ UMass. Smelling blood in Amherst. The Dukes again needing the win outmuscles the Minuteman for a 20 - 17 road victory.

11/21 vs Towson. Not leaving anything to chance, JMU dominates this game from beginning to end for a 38 -14 win and winners of it's last 4 to prove to the playoff committee they belong.

Overall 7 - 4, CAA 5 - 3....but is it enough????

[JMU DJ]

Haha, I like your Richmond analysis... the last home game I attended vs Richmond we lost on a last second 40+ yard field goal into the wind....


It's going to be a tough season... I think it all depends on how Dudzik/Thorpe come out. I've seen the QB change a few times... from Rascatti to Landers at JMU... from David Greene to DJ Shockley to Matt Stafford at UGA... it can work out really well and Dudzik has shown he can play under pressure in big games. I'm still up in the air about how I think we will finish this season...

[BDKJMU]

Haha, I like your Richmond analysis... the last home game I attended vs Richmond we lost on a last second 40+ yard field goal into the wind....

It's going to be a tough season... I think it all depends on how Dudzik/Thorpe come out. I've seen the QB change a few times... from Rascatti to Landers at JMU... from David Greene to DJ Shockley to Matt Stafford at UGA... it can work out really well and Dudzik has shown he can play under pressure in big games. I'm still up in the air about how I think we will finish this season...

DJ, what year was that? Unless it was 00' or 02' that had to be prior to 93'.

[BDKJMU]

Keep in mind this is the same guy who predicted JMU to go 6-5 last season.

[JMU DJ]

DJ, what year was that? Unless it was 00' or 02' that had to be prior to 93'.

I was thinking W&M 04'... got em mixed up for some reason. I was thinking the 05' home game loss to Richmond. I can't recall how that finished, but I don't think it was pretty.

[wideright82]

Keep in mind this is the same guy who predicted JMU to go 6-5 last season.

He game them more credit this year than I would....

[dbackjon]

8-3.

[DukeJack]

Remembering this guy is the one who predicted 6-5 last year, I promised myself I wouldn't read this. Still, an even-handed and realistic appraisal of our season. Sir, my apologies.

Since the CAA review was published, we have lost one more on offense/defense and I'm afraid this could easily be 6-5 this year. Our already thin linebacking corps lost another plus a two-deep, any more there could shatter our season. A few months ago I optimistically predicted an 8-3 season, but we've had too many problems since then for me to believe it.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Other than Big Sky the CAA is the conference that I get to watch the most football for other than McNeese which I get to watch all of their games on replay and I think 8-3 is about right. I could see one more win as easily as I can see one more loos for them. I think the analysis was pretty fair but I just can't see JMU losing two in a row at home and even more unlikely to me is them losing three in a row. If they do lose to Richmond and Villanova then I feel real sorry for W&M as there is lot of hatred between those two teams anyway from what I understand from the JMU peops I met in 2004 anyway.

[BDKJMU]

Other than Big Sky the CAA is the conference that I get to watch the most football for other than McNeese which I get to watch all of their games on replay and I think 8-3 is about right. I could see one more win as easily as I can see one more loos for them. I think the analysis was pretty fair but I just can't see JMU losing two in a row at home and even more unlikely to me is them losing three in a row. If they do lose to Richmond and Villanova then I feel real sorry for W&M as there is lot of hatred between those two teams anyway from what I understand from the JMU peops I met in 2004 anyway.

Bingo. Jmu hasn't lost more than one game at home in 7 years, since 02', the last time JMU had a losing season. JMU at home since 03':
03': 5-1 (lost to 8-4 Northeastern, were 1-5 on the road that year, 6-6 overall)
04' 5-1 (lost 27-24 on last 2nd field goal to W&M who JMU beat in semis)
05' 5-1 (lost to quarterfinal UR team 18-15)
06' 5-0
07' 5-1 (lost to semifinal UR team 17-16)
08' 8-1 (lost to Montana in semis)

Thats 33-5 since 03'. JMU won't lose more than one at home this season.

[JMUpurplehazed]

I think freshman QB Justin Thorpe gets time against Maryland and makes the most of it...Mickey Matthews can't keep him off the field by game four and Justin Thorpe ends his JMU career with at least one NC ring...JMU has had passers, JMU has had runners, JMU now has a QB that can pass and run and he is a freshman. JMU continues to be a solid top 10 for years to come...the new double decker stadium is going to be sick and recruiting which is good now, gets better.