Hey here's a Southland playoff selection scenario for you

[JohnStOnge]

I know most of you guys think the Southland is pretty much limited to Sam Houston State and Central Arkansas. But take a look at what would happen in the unlikely event that both Nicholls State and McNeese State win their last two games:

Nicholls State would be 7-4 with 7 D-I wins. They would have beaten Central Arkansas, which they play next week. They were seen on national TV during their first game losing a nail biter by 2 at Georgia. Another loss was by 1 in overtime to South Alabama. So two close losses to FBS teams. And South Alabama, while not great, is 4-4 with a win over Mississippi State.

McNeese would be disadvantaged at 7-4 by having only 6 D-I wins. But they beat Nicholls State which would be a "quality" win to add to a second win over Sam Houston State. At first glance one would say Nicholls State has the more impressive resume overall if it came down to having to choose only one of the two to get in. But McNeese will have beaten Nicholls State 38-13 head to head. And three of their four losses would've been by 8, 3, and 7 points.

Of course the likelihood is that McNeese will lose to Sam Houston State and Nicholls State will lose to Central Arkansas. And having both underdogs win is particularly unlikely. But I don't think the underdog winning either one of those games would be the biggest upset ever.

[kalm]

They'd have shot with wins over UCA and SHSU, but might need one more quality win to get passed several MVFC and CAA teams with the same record.

For example, SDSU could finish 7-4 with 3 top 25 wins over NDSU, YSU, and WIU. Stony Brook could finish 7-4 with wins over Richmond, UND, and Albany.

Even NAU might beat them out. They'd finish on a 6 game winning streak and have victories over UND, Montana, and Weber.

[JohnStOnge]

They'd have shot with wins over UCA and SHSU, but might need one more quality win to get passed several MVFC and CAA teams with the same record.

For example, SDSU could finish 7-4 with 3 top 25 wins over NDSU, YSU, and WIU. Stony Brook could finish 7-4 with wins over Richmond, UND, and Albany.

Even NAU might beat them out. They'd finish on a 6 game winning streak and have victories over UND, Montana, and Weber.

What all this does is once again put the lie to the idea that having a playoff diminishes the regular season. There are a bunch of games between now and the end the season that are going to have playoff ramifications. Games to determine who ends up getting in and games to determine who the seeds are.

[YoUDeeMan]

I know most of you guys think the Southland is pretty much limited to Sam Houston State and Central Arkansas. But take a look at what would happen in the unlikely event that both Nicholls State and McNeese State win their last two games:

Nicholls State would be 7-4 with 7 D-I wins. They would have beaten Central Arkansas, which they play next week. They were seen on national TV during their first game losing a nail biter by 2 at Georgia. Another loss was by 1 in overtime to South Alabama. So two close losses to FBS teams. And South Alabama, while not great, is 4-4 with a win over Mississippi State.

McNeese would be disadvantaged at 7-4 by having only 6 D-I wins. But they beat Nicholls State which would be a "quality" win to add to a second win over Sam Houston State. At first glance one would say Nicholls State has the more impressive resume overall if it came down to having to choose only one of the two to get in. But McNeese will have beaten Nicholls State 38-13 head to head. And three of their four losses would've been by 8, 3, and 7 points.

Of course the likelihood is that McNeese will lose to Sam Houston State and Nicholls State will lose to Central Arkansas. And having both underdogs win is particularly unlikely. But I don't think the underdog winning either one of those games would be the biggest upset ever.

McNeese was a speed bump. 56 points...and it could very easily have been more.

[JohnStOnge]

I know most of you guys think the Southland is pretty much limited to Sam Houston State and Central Arkansas. But take a look at what would happen in the unlikely event that both Nicholls State and McNeese State win their last two games:

Nicholls State would be 7-4 with 7 D-I wins. They would have beaten Central Arkansas, which they play next week. They were seen on national TV during their first game losing a nail biter by 2 at Georgia. Another loss was by 1 in overtime to South Alabama. So two close losses to FBS teams. And South Alabama, while not great, is 4-4 with a win over Mississippi State.

McNeese would be disadvantaged at 7-4 by having only 6 D-I wins. But they beat Nicholls State which would be a "quality" win to add to a second win over Sam Houston State. At first glance one would say Nicholls State has the more impressive resume overall if it came down to having to choose only one of the two to get in. But McNeese will have beaten Nicholls State 38-13 head to head. And three of their four losses would've been by 8, 3, and 7 points.

Of course the likelihood is that McNeese will lose to Sam Houston State and Nicholls State will lose to Central Arkansas. And having both underdogs win is particularly unlikely. But I don't think the underdog winning either one of those games would be the biggest upset ever.

McNeese was a speed bump. 56 points...and it could very easily have been more.

Yes McNeese has had a weakness in the secondary. Nevertheless, after falling behind 28-3, they put themselves back in position to have a chance to win by scoring to draw to within 6 at 49-43 with 6:57 left in the game. Honestly I only know that because I'm reading box score because I got hacked off early by McNeese once again showing that it was going to make brain dead errors to hurt itself. In a game with defenses struggling it's important to get off the field when you can. McNeese held Sam Houston to 3 and out on its first possession. Then Sam Houston got one first down to about midfield on its second possession and McNeese stopped them on third down. But the McNeese linebacker who made the tackle pushed the Sam Houston player then when the official came over to caution him he mouthed off to the official. 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and few plays later Sam Houston scored on a 28 yard touchdown pass.

It's been like that all year. I honestly think that if they hadn't been doing that kind of crap along with unforced turnovers they'd have gone into the Sam Houston game 8-1. And even in that blowout loss to Central Arkansas they opened the game putting themselves behind the 8 ball by fumbling the ball away on their first two possessions.

Could they have won last night by avoiding mistakes? I don't know but having the only turnover of the game and having 7 penalties for 70 yards vs. Sam Houston State's 2 for 20 yards sure as heck didn't help. And frankly I think the fact that the final margin was 13 and that they got back to within 6 with 6:57 left makes the idea that they had a chance to win if they didn't shoot themselves in the foot plausible.

Also that game last night confirmed what I thought about Sam Houston State vs. Central Arkansas. Central Arkansas has a physical, effective and balanced offense and a dominant defense. Sam Houston State has a high scoring offense but they don't run the ball that well. It's all passing. And they are downright weak on defense. McNeese has not run the ball well this year as they have some offensive line issues and they got 217 yards at 6.6 yards per carry last night. The game will be at Sam Houston State but Central Arkansas sure appears to be a more complete team right now. It's basically going to be solid passing game + solid running game + dominant run defense + dominant pass defense vs. VERY strong passing game + weak everywhere else. Should be interesting.

[JohnStOnge]

So it's up to Nicholls State if the Southland wants a shot at a third playoff berth. But it's going to be awfully tough. I watched Central Arkansas yesterday. They had 6 turnovers and 12 penalties for 126 yards and still beat Stephen F. Austin by 20 points (34-14) on the road. The Jacks hd 3 turnovers and 8 penalties for 64 yards.

One way to look at it is that Central Arkansas needs to tighten things up and not make so many mistakes. But when you're -3 in the giveaway takeaway stat and have 12 penalties for 126 yards and STILL win by 20 points that's saying something about how superior you were as a football team.