Mvemjsunpx wrote:I think you're overrating MSU.
EWU is probably being overrated by most, but I don't see them being 4-7.
I doubt Montana is going to lose every coin flip, and I don't see them losing to EWU if they're a 4-7 team.
Other than that, it all makes sense.
MSU was a hard one to rate, It'll be interesting to see how their new coach will get this Bobcat team prepared for the new season, MSU still has a lot of talent, though their defense needs to improve. MSU has a lot of 50/50 games. I can see MSU losing to both UND and Eastern, but gave them the edge due to being played in Bobcat Stadium.
In my opinion, with that schedule Eastern is going to have to be crazy good to keep from going 3-8 on the season.
Montana was tough as well, it would all depend on if Montana is a lot like they were last year, it almost seemed like there were two or three different Montana teams last year. However Montana got a great recruiting class, but most recruits usually take at least a year to get fully into the system.
There were a few 50/50 games for UM for me to, most notably the Cal Poly and EWU games, the reason I have the Griz losing both is. A. Cal Poly has a knack for beating the Griz, including 2 straight, plus it's in SLO.
B. Montana hasn't won in Cheney since 2008, and it's a game the Eagles and their fans get hyped up for, sets up for a down game for the Griz.
Of course like all preseason predictions, they mean diddly, they are just fun conversation.
Hey Ryan, I think you've done a good job on this overall but allow me to nit pick and correct on something that people just can't seem to get right.
The Griz are 15-4 against Cal Poly overall. We lost in the waning seconds last year...should not have, but did succumb to a real good team after a bit of an emotional game the week prior. In other words, that record would look woeful at best were it not for the two game win streak that Cal Poly is on so let's not get carried away with Cal Poly having a knack for beating us.
It is at their house, I too give CP the edge. Great team when they are up and they give us that courtesy every time so I agree with your assessment, just not the reasoning.
Wildcat Ryan wrote:
MSU was a hard one to rate, It'll be interesting to see how their new coach will get this Bobcat team prepared for the new season, MSU still has a lot of talent, though their defense needs to improve. MSU has a lot of 50/50 games. I can see MSU losing to both UND and Eastern, but gave them the edge due to being played in Bobcat Stadium.
In my opinion, with that schedule Eastern is going to have to be crazy good to keep from going 3-8 on the season.
Montana was tough as well, it would all depend on if Montana is a lot like they were last year, it almost seemed like there were two or three different Montana teams last year. However Montana got a great recruiting class, but most recruits usually take at least a year to get fully into the system.
There were a few 50/50 games for UM for me to, most notably the Cal Poly and EWU games, the reason I have the Griz losing both is. A. Cal Poly has a knack for beating the Griz, including 2 straight, plus it's in SLO.
B. Montana hasn't won in Cheney since 2008, and it's a game the Eagles and their fans get hyped up for, sets up for a down game for the Griz.
Of course like all preseason predictions, they mean diddly, they are just fun conversation.
Hey Ryan, I think you've done a good job on this overall but allow me to nit pick and correct on something that people just can't seem to get right.
The Griz are 15-4 against Cal Poly overall. We lost in the waning seconds last year...should not have, but did succumb to a real good team after a bit of an emotional game the week prior. In other words, that record would look woeful at best were it not for the two game win streak that Cal Poly is on so let's not get carried away with Cal Poly having a knack for beating us.
It is at their house, I too give CP the edge. Great team when they are up and they give us that courtesy every time so I agree with your assessment, just not the reasoning.
I basically just based it off the series since 2008, where the series is 4-3 Griz. They are one of only 4 teams the Griz haven't totally owned since 2008 the others being Eastern who actually leads the Griz 5-4, SUU who the Griz have played 3 times and lead 2-1 and Weber which is 5-3 in favor of Montana, all the other records of the Griz vs everyone are not quite as close.
So when I said knack for beating the Griz, I was basing those stats since 2008, but I can understand why that may have sounded like a stupid comment, since I didn't say in my comment how I was basing it on the series since 2008
Ursus A. Horribilis wrote:
Hey Ryan, I think you've done a good job on this overall but allow me to nit pick and correct on something that people just can't seem to get right.
The Griz are 15-4 against Cal Poly overall. We lost in the waning seconds last year...should not have, but did succumb to a real good team after a bit of an emotional game the week prior. In other words, that record would look woeful at best were it not for the two game win streak that Cal Poly is on so let's not get carried away with Cal Poly having a knack for beating us.
It is at their house, I too give CP the edge. Great team when they are up and they give us that courtesy every time so I agree with your assessment, just not the reasoning.
I basically just based it off the series since 2008, where the series is 4-3 Griz. They are one of only 4 teams the Griz haven't totally owned since 2008 the others being Eastern who actually leads the Griz 5-4, SUU who the Griz have played 3 times and lead 2-1 and Weber which is 5-3 in favor of Montana, all the other records of the Griz vs everyone are not quite as close.
So when I said knack for beating the Griz, I was basing those stats since 2008, but I can understand why that may have sounded like a stupid comment, since I didn't say in my comment how I was basing it on the series since 2008
If what I've heard is true, Stitt is switching personnel to implement his offense right away. I heard the Griz have 50 new players this year. There might be some learning curve with that many new players.
I like our new coach, but like a new recruit, it will take a few years to really know how effective he is. He seems to be placing a priority on defense, seems to have brought in a fair amount of talent - several defensive transfers. Our defense was young last year. Another year of experience and more emphasis on fundamentals should help them. I'll be disappointed with a 6-5 record this year, but it's certainly possible.
NAU has shown to be a pretty good home team the last few seasons but they can't continue to go 2-4 on the road and expect to earn a playoff berth. I'll reserve judgement until the Lumberjacks start winning some tough games on the road.
AZGrizFan wrote:
Did you watch last year's game? That's a hell of a gap to close in one year.
Like I said before, it's a 50/50 game, one that Montana can win just as easliy as lose, Home field helps in a lot of ways, Montana fans should know this more than most. And yes, I can say that I watched part of the game, until it got incredibly lopsided and I turned to a different game.
I watched UM beat NDSU, then turn around and lose to Cal Poly, Watched Montana escape Pocatello with a win thanks to a botched ISU snap then the following week watched them curbstomp EWU. I watched Weber get curbstomped by Southern Utah only to win in Missoula the next week. I also watched a bad Northern Colorado almost beat EWU in Greeley.
What I guess Im saying is nothing is certain anymore.
I wouldn't say UNC was bad last season. We had our first winning season since moving up. I wouldn't say we were that good either, perhaps average.
Wildcat Ryan wrote:
Like I said before, it's a 50/50 game, one that Montana can win just as easliy as lose, Home field helps in a lot of ways, Montana fans should know this more than most. And yes, I can say that I watched part of the game, until it got incredibly lopsided and I turned to a different game.
I watched UM beat NDSU, then turn around and lose to Cal Poly, Watched Montana escape Pocatello with a win thanks to a botched ISU snap then the following week watched them curbstomp EWU. I watched Weber get curbstomped by Southern Utah only to win in Missoula the next week. I also watched a bad Northern Colorado almost beat EWU in Greeley.
What I guess Im saying is nothing is certain anymore.
I wouldn't say UNC was bad last season. We had our first winning season since moving up. I wouldn't say we were that good either, perhaps average.
That's right. And when you are 3 time defending Big sky champ you get everyone's best game...week in and week out.
Wildcat Ryan wrote:
Like I said before, it's a 50/50 game, one that Montana can win just as easliy as lose, Home field helps in a lot of ways, Montana fans should know this more than most. And yes, I can say that I watched part of the game, until it got incredibly lopsided and I turned to a different game.
I watched UM beat NDSU, then turn around and lose to Cal Poly, Watched Montana escape Pocatello with a win thanks to a botched ISU snap then the following week watched them curbstomp EWU. I watched Weber get curbstomped by Southern Utah only to win in Missoula the next week. I also watched a bad Northern Colorado almost beat EWU in Greeley.
What I guess Im saying is nothing is certain anymore.
I wouldn't say UNC was bad last season. We had our first winning season since moving up. I wouldn't say we were that good either, perhaps average.
UNC was also a very opportunistic last season. They were always ready to pounce on any mistakes and made you pay for them by scoring an easy touchdown.
As far as I'm concerned, Portland State needs to prove that last season wasn't a fluke, that Barnum is beginning to turn the program around and make it relevant in the Big Sky. I don't think he was expecting as dramatic a season as we had last year, but I can't help feeling that now everybody has higher expectations, won't except anything less than a 9-10 win season and end up highly seeded in the playoffs.
CaseyOrourke wrote:As far as I'm concerned, Portland State needs to prove that last season wasn't a fluke, that Barnum is beginning to turn the program around and make it relevant in the Big Sky. I don't think he was expecting as dramatic a season as we had last year, but I can't help feeling that now everybody has higher expectations, won't except anything less than a 9-10 win season and end up highly seeded in the playoffs.
I just hope our new crop of Portland fans don't expect us to go in and win against both San Jose and the Big Dubya (and be disappointed if we don't). With how weak the schedule is, we probably won't be hosting a playoff game this year, even with a 9-10 win season.
CaseyOrourke wrote:As far as I'm concerned, Portland State needs to prove that last season wasn't a fluke, that Barnum is beginning to turn the program around and make it relevant in the Big Sky. I don't think he was expecting as dramatic a season as we had last year, but I can't help feeling that now everybody has higher expectations, won't except anything less than a 9-10 win season and end up highly seeded in the playoffs.
I just hope our new crop of Portland fans don't expect us to go in and win against both San Jose and the Big Dubya (and be disappointed if we don't). With how weak the schedule is, we probably won't be hosting a playoff game this year, even with a 9-10 win season.
I just checked out your schedule and holy crap! You guys avoid both Montanas (not that the Cats are likely to be better than middle of the pack), UND, and NAU. Plus, your two toughest conference games, Poly and EWU, are at home.
I like 8-3 as it's tough to run the table in conference. That could still potentially get you hosting a first round game but 9-2 would be a lock to host at least one. (Although I don't blame any Viking fan for not trusting the committee with what happened in 2006?)
JALMOND wrote:
I just hope our new crop of Portland fans don't expect us to go in and win against both San Jose and the Big Dubya (and be disappointed if we don't). With how weak the schedule is, we probably won't be hosting a playoff game this year, even with a 9-10 win season.
I just checked out your schedule and holy crap! You guys avoid both Montanas (not that the Cats are likely to be better than middle of the pack), UND, and NAU. Plus, your two toughest conference games, Poly and EWU, are at home.
I like 8-3 as it's tough to run the table in conference. That could still potentially get you hosting a first round game but 9-2 would be a lock to host at least one. (Although I don't blame any Viking fan for not trusting the committee with what happened in 2006?)
Good to see you back, J!
Its why some of us here were pushing Roundtree to schedule NDSU that first game instead of CWU. Even if it was going to be on the road (most likely) it would have given us a cushion win or lose, and probably given us a shot at hosting again, should we go 7-1 in conference. Now we probably have to win one of our FBS payouts to have a shot. And we could have flown to Fargo as we are probably busing to every game except SUU.
With Ryan's predictions, I'd say we are on the road first round at either NAU or playing someone in the Valley on the road.
1.Weber State__________7-1_____8-3_____ The Curse of John L. Smith should finally be exorcised 2.Northern Arizona ____7-1_____8-3_____ Can Cookus avoid the sophomore slump? 3.Portland State________7-1_____9-2_____ Will San Jose State decide their playoff fate? 4.Montana _____________7-1_____9-2_____ The easy home firewall should guarantee a winning record, at least 5.North Dakota ________6-2_____8-3_____ Will having a real name keep them from being snubbed? 6.Eastern Washington__5-3_____5-6_____ They have too many question marks to survive that suicidal schedule 7.Northern Colorado___4-4_____6-5_____ They'll still go 6-5, but with a real non-conference schedule this time 8.Southern Utah _______3-5_____4-7_____ The T-Birds only lost 4 defensive starters, but 3 of them went to the NFL 9.Cal Poly _____________2-6_____3-8_____ Could Tim Walsh's days be numbered? 10.Sacramento State ___2-6_____3-8 _____ Baby steps, Hornet fans… baby steps 11.Montana State_______1-7_____3-8_____ New coach, 4 new OL starters, 1 good def. player, 0 Prukops… that's a lot to overcome 12.UC Davis ____________1-7_____2-9_____ Tough league slate may make Aggie progress seem like a mirage 13.Idaho State __________0-8_____1-10____ On paper, this team looks awful
1.Weber State__________7-1_____8-3_____ The Curse of John L. Smith should finally be exorcised 2.Northern Arizona ____7-1_____8-3_____ Can Cookus avoid the sophomore slump? 3.Portland State________7-1_____9-2_____ Will San Jose State decide their playoff fate? 4.Montana _____________7-1_____9-2_____ The easy home firewall should guarantee a winning record, at least 5.North Dakota ________6-2_____8-3_____ Will having a real name keep them from being snubbed? 6.Eastern Washington__5-3_____5-6_____ They have too many question marks to survive that suicidal schedule 7.Northern Colorado___4-4_____6-5_____ They'll still go 6-5, but with a real non-conference schedule this time 8.Southern Utah _______3-5_____4-7_____ The T-Birds only lost 4 defensive starters, but 3 of them went to the NFL 9.Cal Poly _____________2-6_____3-8_____ Could Tim Walsh's days be numbered? 10.Sacramento State ___2-6_____3-8 _____ Baby steps, Hornet fans… baby steps 11.Montana State_______1-7_____3-8_____ New coach, 4 new OL starters, 1 good def. player, 0 Prukops… that's a lot to overcome 12.UC Davis ____________1-7_____2-9_____ Tough league slate may make Aggie progress seem like a mirage 13.Idaho State __________0-8_____1-10____ On paper, this team looks awful
I must admit, I like your picks a heck of a lot more than mine.
Best Rushing Offense - Cal Poly
Worst Rushing Offense - Eastern Washington
Best Passing Offense - Northern Arizona
Worst Passing Offense - Cal Poly
Best Overall Offense - Northern Arizona
Worst Overall Offense - Idaho St.
Best Run Defense - North Dakota
Worst Run Defense - Idaho St.
Best Pass Defense - Portland St.
Worst Pass Defense - Cal Poly
Best Overall Defense - Weber St.
Worst Overall Defense - Idaho St.
Best Special Teams - Portland St.
Worst Special Teams - Idaho St.
Best Quarterback - Case Cookus (NAU)
Best Running Back - John Santiago (UND)
Best Wide Receiver - Cooper Kupp (EWU)
Best Tight End - Josh Cook (ISU)
Best WR/TE Corps - Eastern Washington
Best Offensive Lineman - J.P. Flynn (MSU)
Best Offensive Line - Montana
Best Defensive Lineman - Caleb Kidder (UMT)
Best Defensive Line - Montana
Best Linebacker - Mac Bignell (MSU)
Best LB Corps - North Dakota
Best Defensive Back - Xavier Coleman (PSU)
Best Secondary - Portland St.
Best Kicker - Jonathan Gonzales (PSU)
Best Punter - Tate Lewis (SUU)
Best Ret. Specialist - Ellis Onic (UNC)
Best Return Teams - Northern Colorado
1.Weber State__________7-1_____8-3_____ The Curse of John L. Smith should finally be exorcised 2.Northern Arizona ____7-1_____8-3_____ Can Cookus avoid the sophomore slump? 3.Portland State________7-1_____9-2_____ Will San Jose State decide their playoff fate? 4.Montana _____________7-1_____9-2_____ The easy home firewall should guarantee a winning record, at least 5.North Dakota ________6-2_____8-3_____ Will having a real name keep them from being snubbed? 6.Eastern Washington__5-3_____5-6_____ They have too many question marks to survive that suicidal schedule 7.Northern Colorado___4-4_____6-5_____ They'll still go 6-5, but with a real non-conference schedule this time 8.Southern Utah _______3-5_____4-7_____ The T-Birds only lost 4 defensive starters, but 3 of them went to the NFL 9.Cal Poly _____________2-6_____3-8_____ Could Tim Walsh's days be numbered? 10.Sacramento State ___2-6_____3-8 _____ Baby steps, Hornet fans… baby steps 11.Montana State_______1-7_____3-8_____ New coach, 4 new OL starters, 1 good def. player, 0 Prukops… that's a lot to overcome 12.UC Davis ____________1-7_____2-9_____ Tough league slate may make Aggie progress seem like a mirage 13.Idaho State __________0-8_____1-10____ On paper, this team looks awful
No way Cal Poly goes 2-6 in conference. They were down last year, but the previous three years they went 17-7 in conference. Last season was the exception, not the rule.
SloStang wrote:No way Cal Poly goes 2-6 in conference. They were down last year, but the previous three years they went 17-7 in conference. Last season was the exception, not the rule.
Maybe, but that doesn't change the fact they lost Brown & their top WR and that the defense has a long way to go to be any good. Combine that with a tough schedule and things don't look promising. I did have the 'Stangs losing a couple coin flips to EWU & NoCo, but anything better than 5-6 would be overachieving.
SloStang wrote:No way Cal Poly goes 2-6 in conference. They were down last year, but the previous three years they went 17-7 in conference. Last season was the exception, not the rule.
Maybe, but that doesn't change the fact they lost Brown & their top WR and that the defense has a long way to go to be any good. Combine that with a tough schedule and things don't look promising. I did have the 'Stangs losing a couple coin flips to EWU & NoCo, but anything better than 5-6 would be overachieving.
Mvemjsunpx wrote:
Maybe, but that doesn't change the fact they lost Brown & their top WR and that the defense has a long way to go to be any good. Combine that with a tough schedule and things don't look promising. I did have the 'Stangs losing a couple coin flips to EWU & NoCo, but anything better than 5-6 would be overachieving.
Why would losing this matter to CP?
Well, he had 383 yards and 6 touchdowns—nearly triple anyone else on the team. It's nice to have some sort of pass threat… right? Right?
1.Weber State__________7-1_____8-3_____ The Curse of John L. Smith should finally be exorcised 2.Northern Arizona ____7-1_____8-3_____ Can Cookus avoid the sophomore slump? 3.Portland State________7-1_____9-2_____ Will San Jose State decide their playoff fate? 4.Montana _____________7-1_____9-2_____ The easy home firewall should guarantee a winning record, at least 5.North Dakota ________6-2_____8-3_____ Will having a real name keep them from being snubbed? 6.Eastern Washington__5-3_____5-6_____ They have too many question marks to survive that suicidal schedule 7.Northern Colorado___4-4_____6-5_____ They'll still go 6-5, but with a real non-conference schedule this time 8.Southern Utah _______3-5_____4-7_____ The T-Birds only lost 4 defensive starters, but 3 of them went to the NFL 9.Cal Poly _____________2-6_____3-8_____ Could Tim Walsh's days be numbered? 10.Sacramento State ___2-6_____3-8 _____ Baby steps, Hornet fans… baby steps 11.Montana State_______1-7_____3-8_____ New coach, 4 new OL starters, 1 good def. player, 0 Prukops… that's a lot to overcome 12.UC Davis ____________1-7_____2-9_____ Tough league slate may make Aggie progress seem like a mirage 13.Idaho State __________0-8_____1-10____ On paper, this team looks awful
Anyone want an avatar bet? I think you are overestimating what the 'Cats lost and underestimating what they've done to improve.
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