UPDATED 9:50 a.m. EDT: The nation's unemployment rate dropped to the lowest it has been in almost four years in September, giving President Barack Obama a potential upbeat talking point as the presidential race heads into the final innings.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September, a decline of 0.3 percentage point and the lowest since January 2009. The government said the economy created 114,000 jobs, about as expected, and generated 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated.
White House to contractors: Hold off on layoff warnings (Until AFTER the election)
CNN Money ^ | 28 September 2012 | Jeanne Sahadi
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The White House on Friday told government contractors worried about fiscal cliff spending cuts to hold off on warning employees about possible layoffs.
The government said it would cover legal costs if contractors are forced to slash their payrolls because of the looming $109 billion in automatic cuts next year and are alleged to have violated the WARN Act.
....
Defense contractors in particular have warned for months that the upcoming sequester would cost jobs in their industry. And Lockheed Martin's CEO has said publicly he may be forced to issue notice this fall of possible layoffs in 2013.
If other contractors follow suit, there could be a rash of layoff notices spooking employees right before Election Day.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair or fucking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. Al Swearengen http://www.whirligig-tv.co.uk/tv/childr ... bronco.wav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The celebration over adding 114,000 jobs in one month is a bit misplaced, no? Especially considering it continues the trend of less and less job growth month after month. At this rate the papers will be able to stop posting the number of jobs added and instead just list the names of the newly employed - at no increase in article length.
It's good news for him. If you're a Republican you can hope the spin I heard today during the panel discussion at the end of Fox News' Special Report this afternoon proves true. It's interesting because they had a guy from the Washington Post on the panel and he also agreed that the scenario discussed could unfold.
The idea is that the estimate of the number of jobs created should have resulted in an increase in the unemployment rate instead of a decrease. So the results of the two surveys seem to conflict. The jobs created survey was described as based on a far larger and sounder sample so the inclination is to believe it to be more reliable. As they described it, they get the jobs created numbers from businesses and survey one third of them.
So the risk for Obama is that the unemployment estimate was a statistical aberration. That does happen. A statistical estimate like that has a margin of error reported...usually a 95% confidence interval. But it can theoretically be off a lot more than that. And if that's the case and we're really at an unemployment rate more in line with what would be expected from the jobs created estimate the odds are that the next estimate will look bad. Doesn't have to. But since today's' reported estimate would be an outlier the odds are that the next one will be closer to the true population parameter. Also, if it is a statistical aberration, we could see an upward revision to the estimate before the election.
So there's a risk, from the Obama camp's standpoint, that the unemployment information that comes out right before the election will look bad.
Of course one mitigating factor is that a lot of people are voting early so getting a bad unemployment rate report a few days before the election wouldn't hurt as much as it would if everybody voted on election day.
All that said, I wrote on that other board when Obama was first elected that he was stepping into a good situation politically because he got in right when things were really bad. Odds were good that things would get better before 4 years were up regardless of what he did and did not do. A President who inherits a good economy has, I think, a much riskier situation because the odds are pretty good that there will be a disturbance in four years. Not as good as they are that they'll improve within four years when the economy is down, but still pretty good.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star? Deep Purple: No One Came
The White House on Friday told government contractors worried about fiscal cliff spending cuts to hold off on warning employees about possible layoffs.
The government said it would cover legal costs if contractors are forced to slash their payrolls because of the looming $109 billion in automatic cuts next year and are alleged to have violated the WARN Act.
....
Defense contractors in particular have warned for months that the upcoming sequester would cost jobs in their industry. And Lockheed Martin's CEO has said publicly he may be forced to issue notice this fall of possible layoffs in 2013.
If other contractors follow suit, there could be a rash of layoff notices spooking employees right before Election Day.
Yeah that's pretty bad and obviously political. Tell businesses to violate the law then say you'll cover them for any consequences using taxpayers' money. All because you don't want layoff notices going out shortly before an election.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star? Deep Purple: No One Came
Cap, it continues to amaze me that you actually support that guy. It makes no sense at all.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star? Deep Purple: No One Came
Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair or fucking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. Al Swearengen http://www.whirligig-tv.co.uk/tv/childr ... bronco.wav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Bronco wrote:-
You might be right on it being over
If you missed the debate the other night here's a quick replay
I hope you aren't hanging your hopes on the debate. By many accounts John Kerry won the first debate against Dubya in 2004.
Romney won the first round of a three round fight (which might turn out to be an exhibition fight since there is no guarantee that winning the debates means that a candidate will win the election).
Bronco wrote:-
You might be right on it being over
If you missed the debate the other night here's a quick replay
I hope you aren't hanging your hopes on the debate. By many accounts John Kerry won the first debate against Dubya in 2004.
Romney won the first round of a three round fight (which might turn out to be an exhibition fight since there is no guarantee that winning the debates means that a candidate will win the election).
Bronco is living in his Conk fantasy land where women don't vote, are chained to the bed and the stove and who must service men or be killed.
BlueHen86 wrote:
I hope you aren't hanging your hopes on the debate. By many accounts John Kerry won the first debate against Dubya in 2004.
Romney won the first round of a three round fight (which might turn out to be an exhibition fight since there is no guarantee that winning the debates means that a candidate will win the election).
Bronco is living in his Conk fantasy land where women don't vote, are chained to the bed and the stove and who must service men or be killed.
Bronco is a Muslim?
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
- Thomas Jefferson, in letter to William S. Smith, 1787
BlueHen86 wrote:
I hope you aren't hanging your hopes on the debate. By many accounts John Kerry won the first debate against Dubya in 2004.
Romney won the first round of a three round fight (which might turn out to be an exhibition fight since there is no guarantee that winning the debates means that a candidate will win the election).
Bronco is living in his Conk fantasy land where women don't vote, are chained to the bed and the stove and who must service men or be killed.
He seemed awfully quiet for a while, until Romney won the debate and now he's all over the place. Romney is Bronco's viagra.
Bronco needs to understand it's 'election' not 'erection', but either way, if it lasts more than 4 weeks I hope Bronco sees a doctor.
Cap'n Cat wrote:I met Bronco in Montana several years ago. He's a super guy - funny, friendly. But, in the final analysis, he's a Conk.
He's a dumb squat if he thinks that anybody's vote is changing because of these debates. He may be a dumb squat anyway.
There is a small percent of undecideds, the outcome of the debates and the buzz surrounding the outcome of the debates may affect their votes. If Obama losses all three debates it may swing some undecideds to Romney and it may keep some Obama voters home on election day.
Winning the debate was good for Romney. It may not be enough, and it was only one debate, but it definitely helped him.
