The Most Accurate Poll Says.......

[Gil Dobie]

Straight from Paris France.

Obama leads Romney 49-42 percent in latest Reuters/Ipsos survey

Reuters

The daily tracking poll said Obama had 49 percent support to 42 percent for Romney among likely voters. Ipsos interviewed 1,194 registered voters online for the survey.

The result showed the race basically holding where it has been for days with Obama enjoying an advantage over the former Massachusetts governor.

Obama got a bump in support from his Democratic National Convention earlier this month and Romney was hurt by the leak of a video from a private fundraiser he held in May in which he said 47 percent of Americans were dependent on government and unlikely to support him.

The Romney campaign argues that its internal data shows that the race is much closer than most polls are showing.

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for likely voters.

[HI54UNI]

Registered voters. Online poll.

[Skjellyfetti]

Registered voters. Online poll.

Fox News 9/27/2012: Obama +5. Likely voters. Telephone.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interac ... ee-speech/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gallup 9/26/2012: Obama +6. Registered voters. Telephone.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bloomberg 9/24/2012: Obama +6. Likely voters. Telephone.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rhMzOK9Gexhs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

















Liberal media!!! Romney is really winning, guys!!!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkPyseb8tWo[/youtube]

[HI54UNI]

[Chizzang]

Anybody with two active brain cells to rub together knows already this isn't going to be much of a contest

[Baldy]

I can't believe you people actually believe Obama is up by 8-12 points in these 'polls' in the swing states.

Yeah.....first time in recorded history that the incumbent is surging while the economy is collapsing.

[BlueHen86]

I can't believe you people actually believe Obama is up by 8-12 points in these 'polls' in the swing states.

Yeah.....first time in recorded history that the incumbent is surging while the economy is collapsing.

Probably more like 4 to 6 points. Romney is a horrible candidate, he seems to do everything wrong.

Obama is more likable and will get the black vote (with good turnout) no matter what.

[Baldy]

I can't believe you people actually believe Obama is up by 8-12 points in these 'polls' in the swing states.

Yeah.....first time in recorded history that the incumbent is surging while the economy is collapsing.

Probably more like 4 to 6 points. Romney is a horrible candidate, he seems to do everything wrong.

Obama is more likable and will get the black vote (with good turnout) no matter what.

Saw the numbers last night, but I'm too lazy to look them up now. Many of the polls have Obama up 8-12 points in the swing states. That's laughable.

That is the point, 86...the black vote will be strong, but nothing like it was in 2008, not even close. All these polls are using the assumption that the turnout will be like it was in 08...again, not even close. If anything, the turnout will be much closer to the 2010 midterms than 2008, and those two models are polar opposites of each other.

[BDKJMU]

Registered voters. Online poll.

Fox News 9/27/2012: Obama +5. Likely voters. Telephone.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interac ... ee-speech/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gallup 9/26/2012: Obama +6. Registered voters. Telephone.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bloomberg 9/24/2012: Obama +6. Likely voters. Telephone.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rhMzOK9Gexhs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Rasmussen Daily Tracking 9/27: Romney 46, Obama 46

"....Obama has a one- or two-point lead in each of the Key Three States in this year’s election, Ohio, Florida and Virginia. The president is also up by three in Wisconsin and up two in Nevada. Romney is now up two in Colorado and ahead by three in Iowa and New Hampshire. All these states remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. The president has big leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania....."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[BlueHen86]

Probably more like 4 to 6 points. Romney is a horrible candidate, he seems to do everything wrong.

Obama is more likable and will get the black vote (with good turnout) no matter what.

Saw the numbers last night, but I'm too lazy to look them up now. Many of the polls have Obama up 8-12 points in the swing states. That's laughable.

That is the point, 86...the black vote will be strong, but nothing like it was in 2008, not even close. All these polls are using the assumption that the turnout will be like it was in 08...again, not even close. If anything, the turnout will be much closer to the 2010 midterms than 2008, and those two models are polar opposites of each other.

The problem for Romney is that his vote turn out probably won't be strong either. People were pissed at the Dems in the 2010 mid-term elections, they aren't as pissed at Obama now.

I don't think Obama wins the swing states by 8 to 12 points. Common sense tells me that Florida is a toss-up, but I do think Obama is ahead right now.

[BlueHen86]

Fox News 9/27/2012: Obama +5. Likely voters. Telephone.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interac ... ee-speech/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gallup 9/26/2012: Obama +6. Registered voters. Telephone.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bloomberg 9/24/2012: Obama +6. Likely voters. Telephone.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rhMzOK9Gexhs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Rasmussen Daily Tracking 9/27: Romney 46, Obama 46

"....Obama has a one- or two-point lead in each of the Key Three States in this year’s election, Ohio, Florida and Virginia. The president is also up by three in Wisconsin and up two in Nevada. Romney is now up two in Colorado and ahead by three in Iowa and New Hampshire. All these states remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. The president has big leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania....."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... cking_poll" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don't buy the 46-46 number, but that isn't important. I think Rasmussen is pretty close with his assessment of the individual states. Obama is ahead, but it's not a blowout.

[BDKJMU]

Well, we're 40 days out. The polls won't really start to matter until after the 1st debate. That is next Wed.

[BlueHen86]

Well, we're 40 days out. The polls won't really start to matter until after the 1st debate. That is next Wed.

I don't think the debates matter anymore. The networks prop them up because they want you to watch, but once the debate is over the spin-meisters take over and tell you how well their guy did and the lemmings buy it.

But 40 days is a long time, a lot can happen, I agree that it is too early to get worried about the polls. It is fun tracking them though.

[kalm]

I can't believe you people actually believe Obama is up by 8-12 points in these 'polls' in the swing states.

Yeah.....first time in recorded history that the incumbent is surging while the economy is collapsing.

Which should tell you exactly how terrible of a candidate Romney is. He should be up by a gazillion at this point. He might possibly be worse as a candidate than McCain. Obama is just like Bush on the big issues...unfortunately, so is Romney. It doesn't really matter who wins. It's the system.

[Skjellyfetti]

The polls won't really start to matter until after the 1st debate. That is next Wed.

Debates don't typically have much effect on the election.

If you're confident that Romney is in a dead heat or will win... want to make a wager on the outcome?

[Baldy]

I can't believe you people actually believe Obama is up by 8-12 points in these 'polls' in the swing states.

Yeah.....first time in recorded history that the incumbent is surging while the economy is collapsing.

Which should tell you exactly how terrible of a candidate Romney is. He should be up by a gazillion at this point. He might possibly be worse as a candidate than McCain. Obama is just like Bush on the big issues...unfortunately, so is Romney. It doesn't really matter who wins. It's the system.

I agree, Romney is a weak candidate, but we see how bad of a president the last great candidate turned out to be.

The problem is that Obama steps on his dick everyday, but that isn't what gets reported.

[Chizzang]

The problem is that Obama steps on his dick everyday, but that isn't what gets reported.

What PLANET are you on...?
Every word that Obama says is reported (globally)
Every action is microscopically dissected by every news outlet

I'm not voting for Obama and I'm a Liberal, yes he's that bad...
(Mr. Johnson please stand up) But for the love of Pete Baldy you sound like a petulant child
We get it - you don't like him - but it's nowhere near as bad as you spin it

[Seahawks08]

The problem is that Obama steps on his dick everyday, but that isn't what gets reported

And the funny thing is Bush did the same AND got reported.

And then he won reelection!

[Baldy]

The problem is that Obama steps on his dick everyday, but that isn't what gets reported.

What PLANET are you on...?
Every word that Obama says is reported (globally)
Every action is microscopically dissected by every news outlet

I'm not voting for Obama and I'm a Liberal, yes he's that bad...
(Mr. Johnson please stand up) But for the love of Pete Baldy you sound like a petulant child
We get it - you don't like him - but it's nowhere near as bad as you spin it

Yes Chizz, it's not nearly that bad....things are so much better than everyone thinks.

49% of Americans are receiving some sort of a government handout. Less Americans are in the workforce than there were 4 years ago, the latest GDP was revised from a horrible 1.7%, to an abysmal 1.3%, 43 months of unemployment over 8%. Etc, etc, etc, etc. Nothing at all to see here.

Everything he says is reported? Everything?

For two weeks Obama stared into the TV cameras and read off his teleprompter that the terrorist attack at the US consulate in Benghazi was nothing more than a "spontaneous" protest that got out of hand. The facts are that it was a preplanned, coordinated terrorist attack by Al-Qaeda on the anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attack. The sad part is that they are still trying to pin these attacks on some video shot on an iphone and posted on youtube.

AND, I haven't even mentioned the other violent protests at embassies in Egypt, Yemen, Sudan, Tunisia, etc. This is the most catastrophic failure of American foreign policy in decades, and all we hear from the alphabet media is crickets.

You got it Chizzy, it's not nearly as bad as I'm making it out to be.

[kalm]

What PLANET are you on...?
Every word that Obama says is reported (globally)
Every action is microscopically dissected by every news outlet

I'm not voting for Obama and I'm a Liberal, yes he's that bad...
(Mr. Johnson please stand up) But for the love of Pete Baldy you sound like a petulant child
We get it - you don't like him - but it's nowhere near as bad as you spin it

Yes Chizz, it's not nearly that bad....things are so much better than everyone thinks.

49% of Americans are receiving some sort of a government handout. Less Americans are in the workforce than there were 4 years ago, the latest GDP was revised from a horrible 1.7%, to an abysmal 1.3%, 43 months of unemployment over 8%. Etc, etc, etc, etc. Nothing at all to see here.

Everything he says is reported? Everything?

For two weeks Obama stared into the TV cameras and read off his teleprompter that the terrorist attack at the US consulate in Benghazi was nothing more than a "spontaneous" protest that got out of hand. The facts are that it was a preplanned, coordinated terrorist attack by Al-Qaeda on the anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attack. The sad part is that they are still trying to pin these attacks on some video shot on an iphone and posted on youtube.

AND, I haven't even mentioned the other violent protests at embassies in Egypt, Yemen, Sudan, Tunisia, etc. This is the most catastrophic failure of American foreign policy in decades, and all we hear from the alphabet media is crickets.

You got it Chizzy, it's not nearly as bad as I'm making it out to be.

All of this has been reported - at least on MSNBC, Yahoo News, CNN, etc.

And violent protests of embassies at destabilized or client states is the most catastrophic failure of American foreign policy in decades? Wow.



I can see we are now entering the Hannity "unhinged" stage of Obama's imminent victory. But don't worry conks, he's really not that much different than Mitt. It won't make much difference.

[bluehenbillk]

At first I thought this election would be a blow out for Obama - then over the summer Mitt made a run, but now it looks as though it'll be a fairly easy win for BHO.

[Baldy]

Yes Chizz, it's not nearly that bad....things are so much better than everyone thinks.

49% of Americans are receiving some sort of a government handout. Less Americans are in the workforce than there were 4 years ago, the latest GDP was revised from a horrible 1.7%, to an abysmal 1.3%, 43 months of unemployment over 8%. Etc, etc, etc, etc. Nothing at all to see here.

Everything he says is reported? Everything?

For two weeks Obama stared into the TV cameras and read off his teleprompter that the terrorist attack at the US consulate in Benghazi was nothing more than a "spontaneous" protest that got out of hand. The facts are that it was a preplanned, coordinated terrorist attack by Al-Qaeda on the anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attack. The sad part is that they are still trying to pin these attacks on some video shot on an iphone and posted on youtube.

AND, I haven't even mentioned the other violent protests at embassies in Egypt, Yemen, Sudan, Tunisia, etc. This is the most catastrophic failure of American foreign policy in decades, and all we hear from the alphabet media is crickets.

You got it Chizzy, it's not nearly as bad as I'm making it out to be.

All of this has been reported - at least on MSNBC, Yahoo News, CNN, etc.

And violent protests of embassies at destabilized or client states is the most catastrophic failure of American foreign policy in decades? Wow.



I can see we are now entering the Hannity "unhinged" stage of Obama's imminent victory. But don't worry conks, he's really not that much different than Mitt. It won't make much difference.

It has been reported as an attack because of a youtube video.

I didn't know Sydney Australia, Sri Lanka, Casablanca, Amsterdam, London, Paris, Belgium, Istanbul, etc. were all destabilized or client states. Thanks for clearing that up for me.



Who would have ever thought in 2008-2009 that in 2012 the US would be more hated in the Muslim world under Obama than it was under W. Wow...
Yeah, Obama's "foreign policy" has been a catastrophic failure.

[GannonFan]

At first I thought this election would be a blow out for Obama - then over the summer Mitt made a run, but now it looks as though it'll be a fairly easy win for BHO.

I agree that it's looking like an easy win for Obama - it won't be a blowout, because things are far too polarized for it to be a real blowout, but he'll go to bed early election night without any worries. Romney is just a horrible candidate. Obama doesn't seem to have a clue on how to fix the economy, and there's no indication that the next four years will be any better than the past four have been, but Romney has done nothing to win voters to his side. This is a Carter-like election with a severly weakened incumbent sitting on one of the worst economic records of this century and the GOP trots out a Bob Dole-like candidate and runs a Goldwater-like campaign to boot. Even casting a protest vote against Obama by voting for Romney would be hard to justify as he's been that bad of a candidate.

[BlueHen86]

Romney needs to do something soon. If he continues to trail in the polls the RNC and GOP supporters may view him as a lost cause and start channeling money into more winnable races. The GOP may lose the White House, but there is still a chance in the Senate.

[Skjellyfetti]

If he continues to trail in the polls

Or you could just convince yourself he's actually ahead in the polls.