Blue Wave 2018

[JohnStOnge]

When has Trump not been under water in approval ratings:


I think he's something like 47/43 now, but 6 months ago he was around 53-54 disapprove

Never. But he's not at 47/43 now. By the ABC News Washington Post poll I cited he is at 53% disapprove and 43% approve and in the overall RCP average he is at 52.7% disapprove and 43.5% approve. Six months ago today he was at 54.1% disapprove and 42.5% approve.

He won the electoral college running against a candidate that was under FBI investigation much of the way then had the FBI drop a bomb on her near the end. He is not a strong candidate. I said it before but it bears repeating: If Obama could have run for a third term Obama would have destroyed him.

Now, Obama was a very good candidate. So it's not likely the Democrats can come up with somebody like that. I can only recall three really good Presidential candidates in my adult lifetime: Reagan, Clinton, and Obama. But if they can come up with at least a DECENT one they should be able to beat Trump.

As far as the mid terms go: I think there is high confidence that more people will vote Democrat in both the House elections and the Senate elections. But I think the Republicans will probably win the Senate and whether the Democrats win the House or not is a toss up due to the gerrymandering.

So I think we are at substantial risk of having a situation where more people voted for the Democrat in the most recent Presidential election, more people voted for Democrats in the most recent House election, and more people voted for Democrats in the most recent Senate election yet Republicans will control all three.

[Ivytalk]

So I think we are at substantial risk of having a situation where more people voted for the Democrat in the most recent Presidential election, more people voted for Democrats in the most recent House election, and more people voted for Democrats in the most recent Senate election yet Republicans will control all three.

Better summon the Cajun Navy.

[JohnStOnge]

You know, I used to be very skeptical of the assertion but at some point one has to start considering the possibility that Republicans really ARE trying to prevent groups that tend to vote Democrat from voting:

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/13/65712581 ... ing-places

If so it can only work for so long. At some point, if the Republicans don't actually convince non Whites to vote for them, they are going to be permanently removed from power. All they're doing by doing stuff like this is pissing people they will need in the future off.

[AZGrizFan]

You know, I used to be very skeptical of the assertion but at some point one has to start considering the possibility that Republicans really ARE trying to prevent groups that tend to vote Democrat from voting:

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/13/65712581 ... ing-places

If so it can only work for so long. At some point, if the Republicans don't actually convince non Whites to vote for them, they are going to be permanently removed from power. All they're doing by doing stuff like this is pissing people they will need in the future off.

Really? You don’t think record black employment, record Hispanic employment, record low # of blacks on welfare, record # of black start up businesses, wage growth, etc., etc....those aren’t things that will “convince nonwhites” to vote for Republicans?

[JohnStOnge]

You know, I used to be very skeptical of the assertion but at some point one has to start considering the possibility that Republicans really ARE trying to prevent groups that tend to vote Democrat from voting:

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/13/65712581 ... ing-places

If so it can only work for so long. At some point, if the Republicans don't actually convince non Whites to vote for them, they are going to be permanently removed from power. All they're doing by doing stuff like this is pissing people they will need in the future off.

Really? You don’t think record black employment, record Hispanic employment, record low # of blacks on welfare, record # of black start up businesses, wage growth, etc., etc....those aren’t things that will “convince nonwhites” to vote for Republicans?

First let me say that we all know none of those things are due to Trump or the Republicans. But I understand that whoever is in the power tends to get credit for such things.

However, there is absolutely no indication that Republicans have been able to change the basic direction of things when it comes to who non Whites vote. There may be some minor variation. But the standard thing is that somewhere around 70% of non Whites are going to vote Democrat.

There's a reason why Republicans find it necessary to try to suppress the non White vote.

[JohnStOnge]

I was thinking about Republicans, non Whites, and whether or not the economy being good has changed or is likely to significantly change the picture. So I looked up a few things.

First of all I looked up how Trump and the Republicans did among Blacks and Hispanics in some recent polls. I looked at the YouGov poll because it is frequently updated and provides breakdowns and I looked at the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll because the ABC News/Washington Post poll is the one I consider to be the best poll.

In the most recent YouGov poll, conducted October 14 - 16, 6% of Blacks and 23% of Hispanics approve of Trump's job. 5% of Blacks and 36% of Hispanics said they plan to vote Republican in the Congressional election.

In the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted October 8 - 11, 7% of Blacks and 29% of Hispanics approve of Trump's job. That poll doesn't break down race by all groups, but it has 25% of non Whites planning to vote Republican.

Then I looked at how Blacks and Hispanics voted in the 1984 Presidential Election. I did that because that was an election season during which Ronald Reagan was perceived to have really turned the economy around. Morning in America and all that. Unlike today's situation in which the economy was doing well before Trump got elected and the argument is over whether or not it's even more good now than it was before, the situation with Reagan was that the economy was in crisis and it turned around during his first term.

Yet Mondale beat Reagan by 91% to 9% among Blacks and by 66% to 34% among Hispanics.

I think it is likely that you are pissin' in the wind if you think that Blacks and Hispanics are going to significantly change their Party voting patterns because the declining trend in unemployment that was established well before Trump took office has continued.

But we'll see.

[Gil Dobie]

I was thinking about Republicans, non Whites, and whether or not the economy being good has changed or is likely to significantly change the picture. So I looked up a few things.

First of all I looked up how Trump and the Republicans did among Blacks and Hispanics in some recent polls. I looked at the YouGov poll because it is frequently updated and provides breakdowns and I looked at the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll because the ABC News/Washington Post poll is the one I consider to be the best poll.

In the most recent YouGov poll, conducted October 14 - 16, 6% of Blacks and 23% of Hispanics approve of Trump's job. 5% of Blacks and 36% of Hispanics said they plan to vote Republican in the Congressional election.

In the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted October 8 - 11, 7% of Blacks and 29% of Hispanics approve of Trump's job. That poll doesn't break down race by all groups, but it has 25% of non Whites planning to vote Republican.

Then I looked at how Blacks and Hispanics voted in the 1984 Presidential Election. I did that because that was an election season during which Ronald Reagan was perceived to have really turned the economy around. Morning in America and all that. Unlike today's situation in which the economy was doing well before Trump got elected and the argument is over whether or not it's even more good now than it was before, the situation with Reagan was that the economy was in crisis and it turned around during his first term.

Yet Mondale beat Reagan by 91% to 9% among Blacks and by 66% to 34% among Hispanics.

I think it is likely that you are pissin' in the wind if you think that Blacks and Hispanics are going to significantly change their Party voting patterns because the declining trend in unemployment that was established well before Trump took office has continued.

But we'll see.

It would take a huge event to cause Blacks to vote Republican. Trump and his fit about NFL players taking a knee during the anthem, reinforces that they will remain Dems.

[houndawg]

You know, I used to be very skeptical of the assertion but at some point one has to start considering the possibility that Republicans really ARE trying to prevent groups that tend to vote Democrat from voting:

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/13/65712581 ... ing-places

If so it can only work for so long. At some point, if the Republicans don't actually convince non Whites to vote for them, they are going to be permanently removed from power. All they're doing by doing stuff like this is pissing people they will need in the future off.

Really? You don’t think record black employment, record Hispanic employment, record low # of blacks on welfare, record # of black start up businesses, wage growth, etc., etc....those aren’t things that will “convince nonwhites” to vote for Republicans?

.Wages stagnant, inflation rising...

[AZGrizFan]

Really? You don’t think record black employment, record Hispanic employment, record low # of blacks on welfare, record # of black start up businesses, wage growth, etc., etc....those aren’t things that will “convince nonwhites” to vote for Republicans?

.Wages stagnant, inflation rising...

Literally the exact OPPOSITE is true. Wages are up 5% year over year and inflation has dropped to 2.2%.

Any other #fakenews you got?

[bluehenbillk]

.Wages stagnant, inflation rising...

Where do you get stagnant wages? Time to get a new job pal, there are 6-7 million to pick from....

[HI54UNI]

.Wages stagnant, inflation rising...

Where do you get stagnant wages? Time to get a new job pal, there are 6-7 million to pick from....

Agreed. Places around here that are notorious for having shitty pay are upping their wages so they can find help. Some places are upping by $3-4/hour and/or giving sign on bonuses. Unemployment rate in my county is 1.7%. There's one county in Iowa where it's 1.3%.

Yet we still have people on welfare......

[JohnStOnge]

.Wages stagnant, inflation rising...

Literally the exact OPPOSITE is true. Wages are up 5% year over year and inflation has dropped to 2.2%.

Any other #fakenews you got?

Inflation is low but it didn't drop. See https://www.minneapolisfed.org/communit ... rates-1913. If it ends up at 2.2% for 2018 it'll be the highest rate since 2011. It was 0.1% in 2015, 1.3% in 2016, and 2.1% in 2017.

Also, I don't know where you got the 5% figure from, but I don't think real wages have increased by much. See http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... r-decades/. That's an August article but that's not real long ago and I haven't heard of things changing dramatically.

That's not a blame Trump thing. Rather, it's a things haven't really changed that much thing. The idea that things were really bad then all of a sudden Trump took office and things are now great is just nonsense.

[houndawg]

Where do you get stagnant wages? Time to get a new job pal, there are 6-7 million to pick from....

Agreed. Places around here that are notorious for having shitty pay are upping their wages so they can find help. Some places are upping by $3-4/hour and/or giving sign on bonuses. Unemployment rate in my county is 1.7%. There's one county in Iowa where it's 1.3%.

Yet we still have people on welfare......

You call it welfare others call it the Defense Industry

[Skjellyfetti]

High energy!

[kalm]

High energy!

Standing in line to vote...

I’ll sit down at the kitchen table with the wife, have a drink, take our leisurely time with it, and check our ballots right there like states with adult voting methods do.

[CAA Flagship]

Standing in line to vote...

I’ll sit down at the kitchen table with the wife, have a drink, take our leisurely time with it, and check our ballots right there like states with adult voting methods do.

....and then take it to the General Store so the guy on the horse can pick it up and deliver it to civilization.

[Col Hogan]

Midterms: Sorry Democrats, voters reject your political correctness for good reason

Democrats are hoping to administer a tough midterm-election blow to the Republicans — akin to the “shellacking” President Barack Obama got from the Tea Party in 2010 — as a means of shutting down President Donald Trump. But it’s looking iffy now, post-Kavanaugh, and if they fail, they’ll have the politically correct culture that has moved from college campuses into the Democratic Party to blame.

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/1726496002

[JohnStOnge]

Midterms: Sorry Democrats, voters reject your political correctness for good reason

Democrats are hoping to administer a tough midterm-election blow to the Republicans — akin to the “shellacking” President Barack Obama got from the Tea Party in 2010 — as a means of shutting down President Donald Trump. But it’s looking iffy now, post-Kavanaugh, and if they fail, they’ll have the politically correct culture that has moved from college campuses into the Democratic Party to blame.

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/1726496002

If you're following the generic ballot polls and the 538 house forecast it doesn't look any more iffy now than it did before the whole Kavanaugh thing.

Trump nominated Kavanaugh on July 9 and the RealClearPolitics average for the House vote had the Democrats up by 7.3 percentage points on that date. As of now it has the Democrats up by 7.7 percentage points. It's bounced around some in the interim but there's nothing to indicate any kind of trend one way or another.

The current 538 forecast page doesn't go back to July 9 but as of August 1 it had the Democrats with a 77.2% chance to win. As of now it's got their chance to win at 85.6%. I'd use the terminology "confidence" rather than "chance" but you can see there's no big trend towards Republicans doing better.

Sometimes I think that media...even media that tend to dislike Trump...like to act like there is evidence of some big change going on when there isn't.

Like for instance I saw a bunch of stories this past weekend making a big deal because the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had Trump at 47% among respondents as compared to 44% last time. But the poll had a 3.3 percentage point margin of error. I'm sure the previous poll had a similar one. What that means is that there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that 47% vs. 44% among the poll respondents means there has been any change at all.

To me it's the same situation as it's been for a long time: I am hopeful. But there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that if the election were held today the Democrats would win the House. It definitely looks like they have a good chance. But it's not a done deal by any means. it's not any more or less a done deal than it was before Kavanaugh was nominated though. There hasn't been any big change in what the polls and forecasts have been saying. There's no evidence of a "Kavanaugh effect" or of a recent change in sentiment.

[JohnStOnge]

And let us remember, when talking about Trump's assault on political correctness, that he lost the popular vote and got a lower percentage of the popular vote than Romney did. Let's also remember that he ran against a weak candidate. Let's remember that all indications are that if he'd have had to run against Obama he'd have gotten blown out worse than Romney and McCain did.

[Col Hogan]

If if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if

[SDHornet]

phpBB [video]

[UNI88]

And let us remember, when talking about Trump's assault on political correctness, that he lost the popular vote and got a lower percentage of the popular vote than Romney did. Let's also remember that he ran against a weak candidate. Let's remember that all indications are that if he'd have had to run against Obama he'd have gotten blown out worse than Romney and McCain did.

Hold on, I get grief for bringing up Hildamort but John can make Obama comparisons? Obama served 2 terms and wasn't eligible, he's ancient history. If Obama had run against Washington, Washington would have crushed him!

[AZGrizFan]

Literally the exact OPPOSITE is true. Wages are up 5% year over year and inflation has dropped to 2.2%.

Any other #fakenews you got?

Inflation is low but it didn't drop. See https://www.minneapolisfed.org/communit ... rates-1913. If it ends up at 2.2% for 2018 it'll be the highest rate since 2011. It was 0.1% in 2015, 1.3% in 2016, and 2.1% in 2017.

Also, I don't know where you got the 5% figure from, but I don't think real wages have increased by much. See http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... r-decades/. That's an August article but that's not real long ago and I haven't heard of things changing dramatically.

That's not a blame Trump thing. Rather, it's a things haven't really changed that much thing. The idea that things were really bad then all of a sudden Trump took office and things are now great is just nonsense.

Jon, I do this shit for a living. Wage growth YOY hasn’t been below 4.3% for over a year. Record low unemployment and record number of vacant jobs. Core inflation down to 2.2% from 2.4% two months ago. Wages ARE outpacing inflation, for the first time in a LONG time.

[CID1990]

“If liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders, then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals will not do.”

David Frum, NYT (last week)

[mainejeff]

Have the Koch Bros. sent buses down to that immigrant caravan to ensure they arrive at the border by Election Day?