Obama's Cooking the Books

[BlueHen86]

You're welcome Mr. Guy who knows a guy...

Hey, I have the courage of my connections. Let me know if you want a guy who knows his grain futures!

Will do. I haven't heard from my frozen concentrated orange juice guy in a while.

[Ivytalk]

Hey, I have the courage of my connections. Let me know if you want a guy who knows his grain futures!

Will do. I haven't heard from my frozen concentrated orange juice guy in a while.

Be careful, 86! or they'll repossess your Bentley and the kids won't go to college!

[CitadelGrad]

I was surprised to hear that 114K jobs can drop the rate .3%. I thought it would take a much more significant jump in jobs to get to that number.

Edit: oh yeah, the Labor dept. realized their July and August numbers were understated suddenly too.

Something fishy going on here. 114k jobs accounts for well less than 1 tenth of 1% of the employed, yet the unemployment rate drops 3 tenths of 1%. Something doesn't smell right here.

You're right. They used the household survey figure, which has a much smaller sample and historically has been very inaccurate. It's all bullshit, but the lefties are sucking Obama's cock again only a couple of days after his debate humiliation.

[JohnStOnge]

Remember, it's a statistical estimate. It can be off without being falsified. As I said in another thread, the margin of error around a statistical estimate usually reported is a 95 percent confidence interval. That means that before the sample was taken you were 95 percent confident that the true value is somewhere within that margin of error.

But once you take the sample the result can be outside of that. In fact you'd expect it to be outside of that about one in every 20 times. We see statistics issued by government all the time and we tend to think they're the Gospel truth but they're not. They're Gospel estimates. And the nature of statistical estimation is such that there are going to be times when they are WAY off.

Doesn't matter though. It helps Obama for now. But if it IS one of those instances in which it's off and it's off on the low side Obama might get whacked when the next estimate comes out because if this one was way off low he could end up with the impression that the unemployment rate rose significantly in October when that estimate comes out a few days before the election even if the rate didn't change at all.

[Tod]

Remember, it's a statistical estimate. It can be off without being falsified. As I said in another thread, the margin of error around a statistical estimate usually reported is a 95 percent confidence interval. That means that before the sample was taken you were 95 percent confident that the true value is somewhere within that margin of error.

But once you take the sample the result can be outside of that. In fact you'd expect it to be outside of that about one in every 20 times. We see statistics issued by government all the time and we tend to think they're the Gospel truth but they're not. They're Gospel estimates. And the nature of statistical estimation is such that there are going to be times when they are WAY off.

Doesn't matter though. It helps Obama for now. But if it IS one of those instances in which it's off and it's off on the low side Obama might get whacked when the next estimate comes out because if this one was way off low he could end up with the impression that the unemployment rate rose significantly in October when that estimate comes out a few days before the election even if the rate didn't change at all.

Probably be too late by then. This is the last one that matters.

[Ivytalk]

Remember, it's a statistical estimate. It can be off without being falsified. As I said in another thread, the margin of error around a statistical estimate usually reported is a 95 percent confidence interval. That means that before the sample was taken you were 95 percent confident that the true value is somewhere within that margin of error.

But once you take the sample the result can be outside of that. In fact you'd expect it to be outside of that about one in every 20 times. We see statistics issued by government all the time and we tend to think they're the Gospel truth but they're not. They're Gospel estimates. And the nature of statistical estimation is such that there are going to be times when they are WAY off.

Doesn't matter though. It helps Obama for now. But if it IS one of those instances in which it's off and it's off on the low side Obama might get whacked when the next estimate comes out because if this one was way off low he could end up with the impression that the unemployment rate rose significantly in October when that estimate comes out a few days before the election even if the rate didn't change at all.

Probably be too late by then. This is the last big lie that matters.

FIFY.

[Tod]

Probably be too late by then. This is the last big lie that matters.

FIFY.

Golly-gee-dang you're clever.

[blueballs]

I spoke with an old professor yesterday morning about this and he pointed out something I thought was pretty interesting... He said previously the biggest difference between the household survey and NFP was 3X, this survey was approximately 8X, then started laughing.

Take from that what you will...

[kalm]

I spoke with an old professor yesterday morning about this and he pointed out something I thought was pretty interesting... He said previously the biggest difference between the household survey and NFP was 3X, this survey was approximately 8X, then started laughing.

Take from that what you will...

Never trust the dudes in ivory towers?