Сделаем Америку снова великой! Trump - Russia megathread

[Chizzang]

Wow...
what a sh!t sandwich

[CID1990]

So.

The Russian M.O. is blackmail. It's what they do.

Since the Trumpers colluded with the Russians to throw the election, we should be expecting the Russians to data dump some evidence any minute now given that Trump isn't holding up his end of the deal

[Chizzang]

So.

The Russian M.O. is blackmail. It's what they do.

Since the Trumpers colluded with the Russians to throw the election, we should be expecting the Russians to data dump some evidence any minute now given that Trump isn't holding up his end of the deal

Who knew that American politics could get so fascinating...
Trump absolutely makes things more exciting

It doesn't even matter if you're for him or against him or whatever
Because he's only in it for himself so it's automatically entertaining from any angle

[Skjellyfetti]

FBI obtained FISA warrant to monitor former Trump adviser Carter Page

The FBI obtained a secret court order last summer to monitor the communications of an adviser to presidential candidate Donald Trump, part of an investigation into possible links between Russia and the campaign, law enforcement and other U.S. officials said.

The FBI and the Justice Department obtained the warrant targeting Carter Page’s communications after convincing a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge that there was probable cause to believe Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power, in this case Russia, according to the officials.

This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump campaign adviser was in touch with Russian agents. Such contacts are now at the center of an investigation into whether the campaign coordinated with the Russian government to swing the election in Trump’s favor.

Page has not been accused of any crimes, and it is unclear whether the Justice Department might later seek charges against him or others in connection with Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The counterintelligence investigation into Russian efforts to influence U.S. elections began in July, officials have said. Most such investigations don’t result in criminal charges.

The officials spoke about the court order on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss details of a counterintelligence probe.

During an interview with the Washington Post editorial page staff in March 2016, Trump identified Page, who had previously been an investment banker in Moscow, as a foreign policy adviser to his campaign. Campaign spokeswoman Hope Hicks later described Page’s role as “informal.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 724b58ff9b

[CID1990]

FBI obtained FISA warrant to monitor former Trump adviser Carter Page

The FBI obtained a secret court order last summer to monitor the communications of an adviser to presidential candidate Donald Trump, part of an investigation into possible links between Russia and the campaign, law enforcement and other U.S. officials said.

The FBI and the Justice Department obtained the warrant targeting Carter Page’s communications after convincing a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge that there was probable cause to believe Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power, in this case Russia, according to the officials.

This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump campaign adviser was in touch with Russian agents. Such contacts are now at the center of an investigation into whether the campaign coordinated with the Russian government to swing the election in Trump’s favor.

Page has not been accused of any crimes, and it is unclear whether the Justice Department might later seek charges against him or others in connection with Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The counterintelligence investigation into Russian efforts to influence U.S. elections began in July, officials have said. Most such investigations don’t result in criminal charges.

The officials spoke about the court order on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss details of a counterintelligence probe.

During an interview with the Washington Post editorial page staff in March 2016, Trump identified Page, who had previously been an investment banker in Moscow, as a foreign policy adviser to his campaign. Campaign spokeswoman Hope Hicks later described Page’s role as “informal.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 724b58ff9b

Hey Skelly

Ive got news for you (spoiler: youre gonna be disappointed)

Failure to register as a foreign agent with certain countries (gonna clue you in here- there are approximately 5, 6, 7 of them.... maybe more, maybe less....)

AUTOMATICALLY triggers an investigation

Worst case scenario for Trump associates: failure to register as a foreign agent. And thats if they REALLY piss off the FBI through non-cooperation, etc

Hang it up, Bubba. If the Trumpers had been coordinating with The Bear we would know it already


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Skjellyfetti]

Let's wait for everything to come out in the wash and then spin won't be possible or necessary

[GannonFan]

Let's wait for everything to come out in the wash and then spin won't be possible or necessary

It seems terribly long for anything to come out, assuming there's something to come out. If what you posted is correct, and they had a warrant to listen in to Page, that was back in the summer. We're almost 10 months out now from the "crime" and there was a Democratic control of the Executive branch for 6 of those months. Why hasn't there been any charges so far? It's not like you need to build a huge case here - if they have this guy or Flynn on record saying that they are working with a foreign power then it should be a slam dunk. Yet, they haven't dunked it yet, despite getting close to a year from when they should've had evidence that there was a crime.

[Skjellyfetti]

FBI investigations aren't known for being quick.

They just created a special section at FBI headquarters for the investigation.
4/4/17:

The FBI is planning to create a special section based at its Washington headquarters to co-ordinate its investigation of Russian activities designed to influence the 2016 presidential election, according to a person familiar with the plan.

The move, a sign of how seriously the bureau is taking allegations of Russian meddling in American politics, is also aimed at giving FBI director James Comey greater visibility into the investigation’s granular details. “It’s meant to surge resources,” said one FBI agent.

https://www.ft.com/content/40498d94-155 ... e067d5072c

We're almost 10 months out now from the "crime" and there was a Democratic control of the Executive branch for 6 of those months. Why hasn't there been any charges so far?

6 months would be an incredibly short time to thoroughly investigate something like this. Even if they had a slam dunk... it would appear to be politically motivated at best. A coup at worst.

This isn't going to be over any time soon. Arguing it should have been over 4 months ago is pretty ridiculous.

[CID1990]

FBI investigations aren't known for being quick.

They just created a special section at FBI headquarters for the investigation.
4/4/17:

The FBI is planning to create a special section based at its Washington headquarters to co-ordinate its investigation of Russian activities designed to influence the 2016 presidential election, according to a person familiar with the plan.

The move, a sign of how seriously the bureau is taking allegations of Russian meddling in American politics, is also aimed at giving FBI director James Comey greater visibility into the investigation’s granular details. “It’s meant to surge resources,” said one FBI agent.

https://www.ft.com/content/40498d94-155 ... e067d5072c

We're almost 10 months out now from the "crime" and there was a Democratic control of the Executive branch for 6 of those months. Why hasn't there been any charges so far?

6 months would be an incredibly short time to thoroughly investigate something like this. Even if they had a slam dunk... it would appear to be politically motivated at best. A coup at worst.

This isn't going to be over any time soon. Arguing it should have been over 4 months ago is pretty ridiculous.

The overall investigation is looking into the entire picture of Russian meddling in the election. Along the way, they'll try to establish whether or not Trump officials aided the Russians- right now they don't have much. They could threaten to throw a failure to register charge at Flynn to see if he opens up about what went on with the Trump campaign, and here's the thing: they probably already have. In fact, it's almost certain. That's another reason I believe you're going to be sorely disappointed at the end of this

This entire case encompasses a lot more than just whether or not the Russians had help- expanding the scope and resources is not an indicator that anyone helped or coordinated with the Russians

[Skjellyfetti]

right now they don't have much.

How do you know this, though?

Every week you say we've seen everything they have. If they had something, they would have leaked it by now.

Every week it's more dripping...

I don't think we have anywhere near a full picture of their info.

They could threaten to throw a failure to register charge at Flynn to see if he opens up about what went on with the Trump campaign, and here's the thing: they probably already have. In fact, it's almost certain.

Why would his lawyer put out a press release saying they're seeking immunity?

If the FBI was interested in granting him immunity, certainly going public like that wouldn't be a part of it? No?

[CID1990]

right now they don't have much.

How do you know this, though?

Every week you say we've seen everything they have. If they had something, they would have leaked it by now.

Every week it's more dripping...

I don't think we have anywhere near a full picture of their info.

They could threaten to throw a failure to register charge at Flynn to see if he opens up about what went on with the Trump campaign, and here's the thing: they probably already have. In fact, it's almost certain.

Why would his lawyer put out a press release saying they're seeking immunity?

If the FBI was interested in granting him immunity, certainly going public like that wouldn't be a part of it? No?

I know this because I know how this stuff works and I use logic. You should stop hyperventilating and try it.

Flynn's offer of testimony in exchange for immunity was a result of that- which is why I'm nearly certain the FBI has already suggested that they can charge him on the Turkey thing. The fact that the FBI hasn't offered him immunity is because right now the Turkey payment is all they have, and the FBI knows Flynn knows nothing about cooperation with the Russians on the election, at least in his own sphere

There could be information that none of us knows yet, but based on what we do know, and the behavior of the FBI and the main players in this thing- it all points to that the Russians did tamper with public opinion during the elections, and team Trump didn't coordinate with them.

[Chizzang]

How do you know this, though?

Every week you say we've seen everything they have. If they had something, they would have leaked it by now.

Every week it's more dripping...

I don't think we have anywhere near a full picture of their info.




Why would his lawyer put out a press release saying they're seeking immunity?

If the FBI was interested in granting him immunity, certainly going public like that wouldn't be a part of it? No?

I know this because I know how this stuff works and I use logic. You should stop hyperventilating and try it.

Flynn's offer of testimony in exchange for immunity was a result of that- which is why I'm nearly certain the FBI has already suggested that they can charge him on the Turkey thing. The fact that the FBI hasn't offered him immunity is because right now the Turkey payment is all they have, and the FBI knows Flynn knows nothing about cooperation with the Russians on the election, at least in his own sphere

There could be information that none of us knows yet, but based on what we do know, and the behavior of the FBI and the main players in this thing- it all points to that the Russians did tamper with public opinion during the elections, and team Trump didn't coordinate with them.

We'll see...

[Skjellyfetti]

There could be information that none of us knows yet, but based on what we do know, and the behavior of the FBI and the main players in this thing- it all points to that the Russians did tamper with public opinion during the elections, and team Trump didn't coordinate with them.

I'm not hyperventilating. I'm enjoying watching this onion unravel. It's like House of Cards with Michael Scott instead of Frank Underwood.

I know it won't be resolved for a couple of years.

Just posting articles as they come.


Curious why you've shifted from there being a lot of smoke regarding collusion:

There's a shitload of smoke around two issues-
Trump campaign hacks coordinating with Wikileaks or the Russians

To "based on what we know... Trump team didn't coordinate with them."

What did I miss?

Two weeks you think there's a lot of smoke. Now you say "it all points to" no collusion.

[CID1990]

There could be information that none of us knows yet, but based on what we do know, and the behavior of the FBI and the main players in this thing- it all points to that the Russians did tamper with public opinion during the elections, and team Trump didn't coordinate with them.

I'm not hyperventilating. I'm enjoying watching this onion unravel. It's like House of Cards with Michael Scott instead of Frank Underwood.

I know it won't be resolved for a couple of years.

Just posting articles as they come.


Curious why you've shifted from there being a lot of smoke regarding collusion:

There's a shitload of smoke around two issues-
Trump campaign hacks coordinating with Wikileaks or the Russians

To "based on what we know... Trump team didn't coordinate with them."

What did I miss?

Two weeks you think there's a lot of smoke. Now you say "it all points to" no collusion.

That's because stuff happens, Jelly

It was an evolving situation that led me to bet that Susan Rice was playing games - and this one is evolving too

two things- Flynn's behavior, and the administration's behavior towards Russia. It has become quite clear that the Trump admin owes Russia nothing. (I'm sure you'll enjoy the Spandos-esque conspiracy theories coming from the media... and of course now a member of Congress or two)

There *might* still be an individual impropriety or two on the part campaign operatives, but those will be in the area of accepting consulting payments like Flynn. There's not going to be any coordination


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kalm]

I'm not hyperventilating. I'm enjoying watching this onion unravel. It's like House of Cards with Michael Scott instead of Frank Underwood.

I know it won't be resolved for a couple of years.

Just posting articles as they come.


Curious why you've shifted from there being a lot of smoke regarding collusion:



To "based on what we know... Trump team didn't coordinate with them."

What did I miss?

Two weeks you think there's a lot of smoke. Now you say "it all points to" no collusion.

That's because stuff happens, Jelly

It was an evolving situation that led me to bet that Susan Rice was playing games - and this one is evolving too

two things- Flynn's behavior, and the administration's behavior towards Russia. It has become quite clear that the Trump admin owes Russia nothing. (I'm sure you'll enjoy the Spandos-esque conspiracy theories coming from the media... and of course now a member of Congress or two)

There *might* still be an individual impropriety or two on the part campaign operatives, but those will be in the area of accepting consulting payments like Flynn. There's not going to be any coordination


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So just a campaign manager paid 10's of millions, an oil exec turned foreign policy advisory, and a national security advisor?

Thank god!

[Chizzang]

If this were the black guy...
The Republican Senate would be burning the white House to the ground right now

But lets all just cool down here
The 6 new Goldman Sachs chiefs now in charge will get to the bottom of this



If it wasn't so hilarious...

[CID1990]

That's because stuff happens, Jelly

It was an evolving situation that led me to bet that Susan Rice was playing games - and this one is evolving too

two things- Flynn's behavior, and the administration's behavior towards Russia. It has become quite clear that the Trump admin owes Russia nothing. (I'm sure you'll enjoy the Spandos-esque conspiracy theories coming from the media... and of course now a member of Congress or two)

There *might* still be an individual impropriety or two on the part campaign operatives, but those will be in the area of accepting consulting payments like Flynn. There's not going to be any coordination


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So just a campaign manager paid 10's of millions, an oil exec turned foreign policy advisory, and a national security advisor?

Thank god!

Yes, that's about it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Skjellyfetti]

Last August, a handwritten ledger surfaced in Ukraine with dollar amounts and dates next to the name of Paul Manafort, who was then Donald Trump's campaign chairman.

Ukrainian investigators called it evidence of off-the-books payments from a pro-Russian political party — and part of a larger pattern of corruption under the country's former president. Manafort, who worked for the party as an international political consultant, has publicly questioned the ledger's authenticity.

Now, financial records newly obtained by The Associated Press confirm that at least $1.2 million in payments listed in the ledger next to Manafort's name were actually received by his consulting firm in the United States. They include payments in 2007 and 2009, providing the first evidence that Manafort's firm received at least some money listed in the so-called Black Ledger.

The two payments came years before Manafort became involved in Trump's campaign, but for the first time bolster the credibility of the ledger. They also put the ledger in a new light, as federal prosecutors in the U.S. have been investigating Manafort's work in Eastern Europe as part of a larger anti-corruption probe.

Separately, Manafort is also under scrutiny as part of congressional and FBI investigations into possible contacts between Trump associates and Russia's government under President Vladimir Putin during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. The payments detailed in the ledger and confirmed by the documents obtained by the AP are unrelated to the 2016 presidential campaign and came years before Manafort worked as Trump's unpaid campaign chairman.

https://apnews.com/20cfc75c82eb4a67b94e624e97207e23

Paul Manafort to register as foreign agent

President Donald Trump's former campaign chairman Paul Manafort will register with the Justice Department as a foreign agent for lobbying work he did on behalf of political interests in Ukraine, led at the time by a pro-Russian political party, his spokesman said Wednesday.

Manafort is the second Trump campaign adviser to have to register as a foreign agent since the election. The confirmation that he intends to register comes as the Trump administration has been facing heavy scrutiny over the foreign ties of former campaign advisers and other Trump associates.

By registering retroactively, Manafort will be acknowledging that he failed to properly disclose his work to the Justice Department as required by federal law.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/p ... ine-237179

[JohnStOnge]

[

It was an evolving situation that led me to bet that Susan Rice was playing games -

You do realize that you have not been shown to be correct about that, right? I mean, there was this spate of stuff about that then there was another spate of stuff about it not really being anything and that nothing out of the ordinary happened with respect to Susan Rice.

I'm not saying you've been shown to be incorrect. But as far as I can tell you certainly haven't been shown to be correct either.

[CID1990]

[

It was an evolving situation that led me to bet that Susan Rice was playing games -

You do realize that you have not been shown to be correct about that, right? I mean, there was this spate of stuff about that then there was another spate of stuff about it not really being anything and that nothing out of the ordinary happened with respect to Susan Rice.

I'm not saying you've been shown to be incorrect. But as far as I can tell you certainly haven't been shown to be correct either.

I was correct in nailing down who was doing the unmasking, Erkel

UH OH let me head off the Jelly/JSO Semantic Express by correcting myself and saying she was REQUESTING the unmasking... cool?

Try to keep up

Whether what she was up to was inappropriate or not remains to be seen

[Skjellyfetti]

Whether what she was up to was inappropriate or not remains to be seen

And, if there was nothing inappropriate - then there's no story.

As I said in our original back-and-forth on it.

It's possible it came from a cabinet member. But, it would have had to be approved by the FBI or NSA as relevant to the investigation, no?

If the White House forced the NSA to unmask someone's name, against their wishes or against standard procedures... then it is certainly a scandal. But, I'm not seeing any smoke here. Are you?

If the NSA only unmasked names relevant to the FBI investigation according to standard procedures... what is the scandal?

[BDKJMU]

Whether what she was up to was inappropriate or not remains to be seen

And, if there was nothing inappropriate - then there's no story.

As I said in our original back-and-forth on it.

It's possible it came from a cabinet member. But, it would have had to be approved by the FBI or NSA as relevant to the investigation, no?

If the White House forced the NSA to unmask someone's name, against their wishes or against standard procedures... then it is certainly a scandal. But, I'm not seeing any smoke here. Are you?

If the NSA only unmasked names relevant to the FBI investigation according to standard procedures... what is the scandal?

That's a big if, and even if that is the case there is the leaking of the names to the press,which is is a scandal in itself, in addition to being criminal, no?

[Skjellyfetti]

That's a big if

And "if she did something inappropriate" is a much bigger if.

and even if that is the case there is the leaking of the names to the press,which is is a scandal in itself, in addition to being crimibal, no?

You're right. That would certainly be acting inappropriately / criminal and would be a YUGE scandal.

I don't think there is any indication Susan Rice was the leaker. After the names were unmasked, they made their rounds among many people. Who knows who leaked it?

[CID1990]

Susan Rice wasn't the leaker.

That's why what she did was likely inappropriate, and also likely that it will be next to impossible to prove (but there are a couple ways to build a strong circumstantial case - but it doesn't matter) - and she's covered by the "rules"

Unmasking names on intercepts alongside the new rule that disseminates those intercepts widely among various agencies (before the Trump admin people replace the Obama admin people) guarantees a leak, without having to do it herself. Unless she was stupid enough to have an email thread about her intentions, she'll skate.

Nefarious in this case or not, this is the prime example of what civil libertarians have been talking about for years- US intel agencies have them means (and the rules to cover their asses) to do whatever they want with intelligence involving incidental intercepts

But there will be some entertaining questioning on the hill before this is all over

Maybe she can get her opportunity to strike this pose too:

[Skjellyfetti]

The FBI last year used a dossier of allegations of Russian ties to Donald Trump's campaign as part of the justification to win approval to secretly monitor a Trump associate, according to US officials briefed on the investigation.

The dossier has also been cited by FBI Director James Comey in some of his briefings to members of Congress in recent weeks, as one of the sources of information the bureau has used to bolster its investigation, according to US officials briefed on the probe.

This includes approval from the secret court that oversees the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to monitor the communications of Carter Page, two of the officials said. Last year, Page was identified by the Trump campaign as an adviser on national security.

Officials familiar with the process say even if the application to monitor Page included information from the dossier, it would only be after the FBI had corroborated the information through its own investigation. The officials would not say what or how much was corroborated.

The dossier first came to light when CNN reported that a summary of it had been presented to President Obama and President-elect Trump back in December by top US Intelligence officials.

The dossier alleges that Page met senior Russian officials as an emissary of the Trump campaign, and discussed quid-pro-quo deals relating to sanctions, business opportunities and Russia's interference in the election. Page has denied meeting the officials named in the dossier and says he never cut any political deals with the Kremlin.

During the campaign, he traveled to Russia in July, where he gave a lecture critical of US policy toward Russia. That trip drew the attention of the FBI and raised concerns about Page's contacts with suspected Russian operatives, according to US officials briefed on the matter. Page has said he made the trip independent of the Trump campaign and his speech reflected his own views.

To obtain court permission to target Page, the FBI and Justice Department would have to present probable cause that he was acting as an agent of a foreign power, including possibly engaging in clandestine intelligence gathering for a foreign government. Comey and other top Justice Department officials would have to sign off on the application, which government officials say involves a rigorous review process.

Then-candidate Trump cited Page last year in an interview as one of his advisers on national security matters. He was officially on the campaign foreign policy team from March 2016 to September 2016. Page calls himself a 'junior member of the team" and Trump officials have said he had no influential role with the campaign.
The FBI became interested in Page, the officials say, in part because of concerns about his interactions with suspected Russian intelligence operatives last year. The Justice Department and FBI haven't accused Page of wrongdoing and it's unclear whether any charges could be brought in the investigation.

The FBI already knew about Page because of his role as a witness in the 2013 federal prosecution of an undercover Russian spy. Prosecutors alleged that the spy had tried to cultivate Page as a source. Page denies he knew he was interacting with a Russian spy.

Page was also among those who met with Russia's ambassador, Sergey Kislyak during the Republican National Convention in 2016.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/18/politics/ ... index.html