2022 Elections Thread

[AZGrizFan]

If you don't understand the word " determinant," then you should not be voting.

I understand what "determinant" means. There are two ways of looking at it. If something is absolutely determinant, that means A means B in every case. If something is probablisticly determinant, that means that in any given case A is likely to mean B.

When you talk about being more informed, no, person A being more informed than person B does not mean person A will vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican in every case. But i think it does mean that, in each randomly selected case, person A being more informed than person B means person A is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican.

The bottom line proposition is that being more informed makes it more likely that a randomly selected person is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican. And, actually, it's pretty obvious. I just happen to be on a board where a number of people are in denial about that.

Your 2nd paragraph is fucking gobbledegook. Word salad. Complete garbage.

[UNI88]

I understand what "determinant" means. There are two ways of looking at it. If something is absolutely determinant, that means A means B in every case. If something is probablisticly determinant, that means that in any given case A is likely to mean B.

When you talk about being more informed, no, person A being more informed than person B does not mean person A will vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican in every case. But i think it does mean that, in each randomly selected case, person A being more informed than person B means person A is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican.

The bottom line proposition is that being more informed makes it more likely that a randomly selected person is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican. And, actually, it's pretty obvious. I just happen to be on a board where a number of people are in denial about that.

Your 2nd paragraph is fucking gobbledegook. Word salad. Complete garbage.

Yep! A truly more informed person wouldn't vote Democrat or Republican.

[Ivytalk]

Your 2nd paragraph is fucking gobbledegook. Word salad. Complete garbage.

Yep! A truly more informed person wouldn't vote Democrat or Republican.

And there would be better third-party options than the Libertarians (which are now in a factional civil war) or the Greens (who was that old broad that Ganny voted for?).

[CID1990]

Boy those Hispanics sure are getting less and less educated aren’t they?


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[Ibanez]

If you don't understand the word " determinant," then you should not be voting.

I understand what "determinant" means. There are two ways of looking at it. If something is absolutely determinant, that means A means B in every case. If something is probablisticly determinant, that means that in any given case A is likely to mean B.

When you talk about being more informed, no, person A being more informed than person B does not mean person A will vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican in every case. But i think it does mean that, in each randomly selected case, person A being more informed than person B means person A is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican.

The bottom line proposition is that being more informed makes it more likely that a randomly selected person is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican. And, actually, it's pretty obvious. I just happen to be on a board where a number of people are in denial about that.

You're not an intelligent person, otherwise you would have spelled "probabilistically" correctly. You should not be voting.

[Ibanez]

Your 2nd paragraph is fucking gobbledegook. Word salad. Complete garbage.

Yep! A truly more informed person wouldn't vote Democrat or Republican.

THANK YOU!

[BDKJMU]

Yep! A truly more informed person wouldn't vote Democrat or Republican.

THANK YOU!

And who did you vote for last election?

[Ibanez]

THANK YOU!

And who did you vote for last election?

Biden. However my vote didn't matter due to the Electoral College and i'm in MAGA country. I could've voted for John Wilkes Booth and it would've had the same weight. At least I didn't vote for a mob associated, scumbag piece of shit like Trump.

The difference between us is that I know the guy I voted for is woefully inept and ill-equipped for the task and I'm man enough to admit it.

[BDKJMU]

And who did you vote for last election?

Biden. However my vote didn't matter due to the Electoral College and i'm in MAGA country. I could've voted for John Wilkes Booth and it would've had the same weight. At least I didn't vote for a mob associated, scumbag piece of shit like Trump.

The difference between us is that I know the guy I voted for is woefully inept and ill-equipped for the task and I'm man enough to admit it.

Trump and Biden weren’t the only 2 on your ballot.

Yep! A truly more informed person wouldn't vote Democrat or Republican.

THANK YOU!

Pot meet kettle.

[kalm]

Your 2nd paragraph is fucking gobbledegook. Word salad. Complete garbage.

Yep! A truly more informed person wouldn't vote Democrat or Republican.

An informed person would understand the duopolistic nature of the system. They can vote major party recognizing and accepting this current reality or throw a protest vote at a 3rd party. Informed and intelligent in both cases.

Bottom line…another instance where kalm has been right on here for years. And I’m kind of stupid.

[Ibanez]

Biden. However my vote didn't matter due to the Electoral College and i'm in MAGA country. I could've voted for John Wilkes Booth and it would've had the same weight. At least I didn't vote for a mob associated, scumbag piece of shit like Trump.

The difference between us is that I know the guy I voted for is woefully inept and ill-equipped for the task and I'm man enough to admit it.

Trump and Biden weren’t the only 2 on your ballot.

THANK YOU!

Pot meet kettle.

You're right - I could've voted for someone else that would've have equal weight to Biden winning York County and South Carolina.


We're all hypocrites - i'm man enough to admit it.

[houndawg]

Your 2nd paragraph is fucking gobbledegook. Word salad. Complete garbage.

Yep! A truly more informed person wouldn't vote Democrat or Republican.

People aren't voting for, they're voting against

[JohnStOnge]

I understand what "determinant" means. There are two ways of looking at it. If something is absolutely determinant, that means A means B in every case. If something is probablisticly determinant, that means that in any given case A is likely to mean B.

When you talk about being more informed, no, person A being more informed than person B does not mean person A will vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican in every case. But i think it does mean that, in each randomly selected case, person A being more informed than person B means person A is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican.

The bottom line proposition is that being more informed makes it more likely that a randomly selected person is more likely to vote Democrat as opposed to voting Republican. And, actually, it's pretty obvious. I just happen to be on a board where a number of people are in denial about that.

Your 2nd paragraph is fucking gobbledegook. Word salad. Complete garbage.

No, it is not. In my line of work I sometimes deal with deterministic models and I sometimes deal with probabilistic models. A deterministic model says that if X happens Y will exactly Z. A single exact Z will happen. 100%. No variation. X completely determines what Y will be.

A probabilistic model says that if X happens there is a a probability distribution as to what Z will be. If it's a binary thing like, say, vote Democrat or vote Republican, you can say something like, "If I randomly select a Black person who is going to vote in the next election, there is a 90% chance that the person I select will vote Democrat."

I think that being among the most informed in our society does not make it certain that a randomly selected person from that group will vote for a Democrat before they vote for a Republican. But I do think it makes it more likely. And it think the probability is something like 60%.

[AZGrizFan]

Your 2nd paragraph is fucking gobbledegook. Word salad. Complete garbage.

No, it is not. In my line of work I sometimes deal with deterministic models and I sometimes deal with probabilistic models. A deterministic model says that if X happens Y will exactly Z. A single exact Z will happen. 100%. No variation. X completely determines what Y will be.

A probabilistic model says that if X happens there is a a probability distribution as to what Z will be. If it's a binary thing like, say, vote Democrat or vote Republican, you can say something like, "If I randomly select a Black person who is going to vote in the next election, there is a 90% chance that the person I select will vote Democrat."

I think that being among the most informed in our society does not make it certain that a randomly selected person from that group will vote for a Democrat before they vote for a Republican. But I do think it makes it more likely. And it think the probability is something like 60%.

It’s gobbledegook because you are STILL conflating education with “being informed” or “intelligence”. And your argument shifts more than the sands of the Sahara.

[JohnStOnge]

I'm not even going to go back and see if anyone caught something I left myself open on before I post this. I'll just tell a story.

Back when I favored Republicans, the fact that post grads consistently vote Democrat bugged me. But, back then, people at the highest income levels reported in exit polls consistently voted Republican. I knew IQ is correlated both with education and income. So I started trying to find out which correlation was stronger.

Alas, I was forced to admit that there is a stronger correlation between education level and IQ than there is between income and IQ. After I posted something I thought I might need to find some documentation of that. And it was HARD. But I finally found something It's at https://www.emilkirkegaard.dk//en/wp-co ... search.pdf.

Here is a key quote:

As expected, intelligence is positively correlated with education, occupation, and income; the sample size weighted and corrected correlations ( p) are .56, .43, and .20, respectively

So there it is: Support for saying that education is more highly correlated with intelligence than income is. And if you do a find on "IQ" you can see that they are referring to intelligence as measured by IQ.

It was a frustrating search. Harder than it was when I looked into it the first time. I did find a couple of cases where people used hypothetical examples of correlations to discuss methods and their hypothetical examples had education as being more highly correlated with IQ than income is. That tells me that that's what's expected. But it took me a while to find someone actually discussing the correlations.

Bottom line: When you look at things like exit polls or pre election polls, know that both education and income are correlated with IQ. But education is the better indicator of the two.

[JohnStOnge]

No, it is not. In my line of work I sometimes deal with deterministic models and I sometimes deal with probabilistic models. A deterministic model says that if X happens Y will exactly Z. A single exact Z will happen. 100%. No variation. X completely determines what Y will be.

A probabilistic model says that if X happens there is a a probability distribution as to what Z will be. If it's a binary thing like, say, vote Democrat or vote Republican, you can say something like, "If I randomly select a Black person who is going to vote in the next election, there is a 90% chance that the person I select will vote Democrat."

I think that being among the most informed in our society does not make it certain that a randomly selected person from that group will vote for a Democrat before they vote for a Republican. But I do think it makes it more likely. And it think the probability is something like 60%.

It’s gobbledegook because you are STILL conflating education with “being informed” or “intelligence”. And your argument shifts more than the sands of the Sahara.

No it doesn't. When you look at things that are not actual testing of individuals that give some insight into IQ, education level is the best indicator you are going to get. There is a highly significant correlation between educational attainment and intelligence. It's a better predictor of IQ than, say, income is.

I don't have data on being "informed." But do you seriously doubt that, if we were to design some test with respect to being informed about what's going on in the nation and the world right now, that people with graduate degrees would score higher on it on average than people who never attended college would? Do you seriously doubt that it would be WAY higher?

I think most reasonable people understand that being more educated generally means being more informed. But it's probabilistic. Define informed in any reasonable way and design a test for it. Say you are going to randomly select one person with a graduate degree and one person who never attended college The odds are that the person who got the graduate degree is going to score higher. And it's a high probability. But it's not 100%.

[AZGrizFan]

It’s gobbledegook because you are STILL conflating education with “being informed” or “intelligence”. And your argument shifts more than the sands of the Sahara.

No it doesn't. When you look at things that are not actual testing of individuals that give some insight into IQ, education level is the best indicator you are going to get. There is a highly significant correlation between educational attainment and intelligence. It's a better predictor of IQ than, say, income is.

I don't have data on being "informed." But do you seriously doubt that, if we were to design some test with respect to being informed about what's going on in the nation and the world right now, that people with graduate degrees would score higher on it on average than people who never attended college would? Do you seriously doubt that it would be WAY higher?

I think most reasonable people understand that being more educated generally means being more informed. But it's probabilistic. Define informed in any reasonable way and design a test for it. Say you are going to randomly select one person with a graduate degree and one person who never attended college The odds are that the person who got the graduate degree is going to score higher. And it's a high probability. But it's not 100%.

This is the last time I’m going to say this: INTELLIGENCE <> BEING “INFORMED”

Most reasonable people understand THAT.

[JohnStOnge]

Really, guys, this thing of arguing that the people who got graduate degrees and who are the educational attainment group that tends to vote most strongly Democrat aren't more informed...by any reasonable standard as to what informed is...than the people who never attended college and who are the educational attainment group that tends to vote most strongly Republican are is pretty ridiculous. And you know it's ridiculous.

Any REASONABLE person would concede that, on average, people who have graduate degrees are more intelligent and also more informed as to what is going on in the world on average than people who never attended college are. Yes, I know the populist impulse is to try to say other wise. But c'mon. Be real.

[JohnStOnge]

No it doesn't. When you look at things that are not actual testing of individuals that give some insight into IQ, education level is the best indicator you are going to get. There is a highly significant correlation between educational attainment and intelligence. It's a better predictor of IQ than, say, income is.

I don't have data on being "informed." But do you seriously doubt that, if we were to design some test with respect to being informed about what's going on in the nation and the world right now, that people with graduate degrees would score higher on it on average than people who never attended college would? Do you seriously doubt that it would be WAY higher?

I think most reasonable people understand that being more educated generally means being more informed. But it's probabilistic. Define informed in any reasonable way and design a test for it. Say you are going to randomly select one person with a graduate degree and one person who never attended college The odds are that the person who got the graduate degree is going to score higher. And it's a high probability. But it's not 100%.

This is the last time I’m going to say this: INTELLIGENCE <> BEING “INFORMED”

Most reasonable people understand THAT.

if what you meant by using "<>" is that being more intelligent does not equal being more informed: Not in every case. But I am confident that if you were to design a test you feel gauges the level to which people are informed as to what is going on in the world around them, there would be a strong correlation between IQ and the score on that test. There would also be a strong correlation between educational attainment level and the score on that test.

And I think you really know that.

[JohnStOnge]

Boy those Hispanics sure are getting less and less educated aren’t they?


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In spite of the fact that I posted the a single result from a quality poll showing that it is close between Democrats and Republicans among hispanics for the 2022 mid terms, there is no indication of significant progress for Republicans among hispanics overall. All of the other polls I looked at looked pretty much status quote. There is more variation in the hispanic vote than there in the black vote historically. But it's historically been around 2:1 for Democrats and all indications are it is going to be near that in 2022.

That doesn't mean things don't look bad for the Democrats. But, right now, this Republican thing where they think they are making major inroads with respect to hispanics appears to be a pipe dream.

[AZGrizFan]

This is the last time I’m going to say this: INTELLIGENCE <> BEING “INFORMED”

Most reasonable people understand THAT.

if what you meant by using "<>" is that being more intelligent does not equal being more informed: Not in every case. But I am confident that if you were to design a test you feel gauges the level to which people are informed as to what is going on in the world around them, there would be a strong correlation between IQ and the score on that test. There would also be a strong correlation between educational attainment level and the score on that test.

And I think you really know that.

Intelligence <> IQ <> Informed level. It’s as simple as that. I know someone who’s a Mensa member, has a photographic memory, but is too stupid to wash her dishes so she throws them away and buys new ones. Many, many many of the most informed people I know and most successful people I know are HS graduates. The trash being pumped out of our colleges and universities is in no way raising the level of “intelligence” to the point that you think it is. Not even close. And even if it was, doesn’t change the fact that intelligence has ZERO bearing on how informed someone is outside of their field of study. ZERO.

[houndawg]

if what you meant by using "<>" is that being more intelligent does not equal being more informed: Not in every case. But I am confident that if you were to design a test you feel gauges the level to which people are informed as to what is going on in the world around them, there would be a strong correlation between IQ and the score on that test. There would also be a strong correlation between educational attainment level and the score on that test.

And I think you really know that.

Intelligence <> IQ <> Informed level. It’s as simple as that. I know someone who’s a Mensa member, has a photographic memory, but is too stupid to wash her dishes so she throws them away and buys new ones. Many, many many of the most informed people I know and most successful people I know are HS graduates. The trash being pumped out of our colleges and universities is in no way raising the level of “intelligence” to the point that you think it is. Not even close. And even if it was, doesn’t change the fact that intelligence has ZERO bearing on how informed someone is outside of their field of study. ZERO.

Why do you think that the reason she throws them out is because she's too stupid to clean them as opposed to some more likely reason?

[CID1990]

Boy those Hispanics sure are getting less and less educated aren’t they?


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In spite of the fact that I posted the a single result from a quality poll showing that it is close between Democrats and Republicans among hispanics for the 2022 mid terms, there is no indication of significant progress for Republicans among hispanics overall. All of the other polls I looked at looked pretty much status quote. There is more variation in the hispanic vote than there in the black vote historically. But it's historically been around 2:1 for Democrats and all indications are it is going to be near that in 2022.

That doesn't mean things don't look bad for the Democrats. But, right now, this Republican thing where they think they are making major inroads with respect to hispanics appears to be a pipe dream.

This post is not going to age well but youve had a lot of those


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[AZGrizFan]

Intelligence <> IQ <> Informed level. It’s as simple as that. I know someone who’s a Mensa member, has a photographic memory, but is too stupid to wash her dishes so she throws them away and buys new ones. Many, many many of the most informed people I know and most successful people I know are HS graduates. The trash being pumped out of our colleges and universities is in no way raising the level of “intelligence” to the point that you think it is. Not even close. And even if it was, doesn’t change the fact that intelligence has ZERO bearing on how informed someone is outside of their field of study. ZERO.

Why do you think that the reason she throws them out is because she's too stupid to clean them as opposed to some more likely reason?

Because it’s my sister, numbnuts.

[houndawg]

if what you meant by using "<>" is that being more intelligent does not equal being more informed: Not in every case. But I am confident that if you were to design a test you feel gauges the level to which people are informed as to what is going on in the world around them, there would be a strong correlation between IQ and the score on that test. There would also be a strong correlation between educational attainment level and the score on that test.

And I think you really know that.

Intelligence <> IQ <> Informed level. It’s as simple as that. I know someone who’s a Mensa member, has a photographic memory, but is too stupid to wash her dishes so she throws them away and buys new ones. Many, many many of the most informed people I know and most successful people I know are HS graduates. The trash being pumped out of our colleges and universities is in no way raising the level of “intelligence” to the point that you think it is. Not even close. And even if it was, doesn’t change the fact that intelligence has ZERO bearing on how informed someone is outside of their field of study. ZERO.

I never said I thought it was raising anything