Coronavirus COVID-19

[89Hen]

[89Hen]

Meanwhile on the left.

[SeattleGriz]

I see Melbourne has hit a new high with COVID cases. If they would only get serious, they could turn the corner.

[Ivytalk]

I went to a Georgia Southern “blue-out” once.

[89Hen]

89Henette's public school is having a LOT of new cases of Covid in the students and faculty and they are NOT being reported.

[UNI88]

I went to a Georgia Southern “blue-out” once.

Is that what they call a blue balls teabag?

[SeattleGriz]

This was actually in the original post. Not being snarky with you.

Attack rate column for numbers: 89 for vaxxed (4-6 months after vaccination), 93 for unvaxxed

Shouldn't come as a big surprise as these studies are showing this all over the place and probably why Israel recommends boosters at 6 months.

4-6 months is a lot better for those at risk, as opposed to no protection unvaccinated.

I think the anti-vaxxers are too focused on covid cases, and the stats should focus on covid hospitalizations, vaxxed versus unvaxxed. This way we would know if the vaccine is actually protecting people against Covid.

Obviously don't know if this an extreme outlier, but this is why I keep repeating that I hope the US doesn't follow the UK and Israel.

[JohnStOnge]

I just did a thing to try to look for association between state by state vaccination rate and state by state case rate while accounting for incubation period. What I did was take the number of new cases reported at WorldoMeters for each State yesterday, September 29 and calculate a per million population rate. Then I looked up the median incubation period for COVID-19. According to CDC it's 4 to 5 days. I used 5 days. So I went to the thing you can see by doing the Google search https://www.google.com/search?q=Alabama ... CA0&uact=5 and got the vaccination rate for each State as of 5 days prior to September 29 (September 24).

Then I calculated a Pearson correlation coefficient for September 29 cases per million population rate vs. September 24 vaccination rate.

I did have to use the September 21 vaccination rate for Washington because the latest date for which I could see a vaccination rate was then.

The Pearson coefficient is -0.460330599. That is significant at more than 99.9% confidence. So there is a highly significant association such that case rates tend to be lower when vaccination rates are higher.

Since it's observational it doesn't infer cause and effect. Other things could be going on. For example: it could be that people in States with higher vaccination rates could also be more likely to do other things, like social distancing and mask wearing, that reduce risk. But it's consistent with the belief that the vaccines work. No matter how you slice it, States with higher vaccination rates tended to have lower case rates.

I do expect this kind of association to wane soon. That is because it looks like this Delta variant wave is starting to wane overall. I have seen plenty of public health talking heads say that on TV and I can see that appears to be happening based on the graphs available at Worldometers. Hopefully there will not be any future waves.

Note: If I exclude Washington because a September 24 vaccination rate was not available, the coefficient is -0.458995605 and the significance level remains >99.9%.

One last thing: In the past I have used vaccination rates as of the day of the case rate. I don't think that makes much difference. For example, the Alabama vaccination rate on September 24 was 41.8% and it was 42.5% on September 29. But I thought I should try to make SOME effort to account for the incubation period.

[CID1990]

I just did a thing to try to look for association between state by state vaccination rate and state by state case rate while accounting for incubation period. What I did was take the number of new cases reported at WorldoMeters for each State yesterday, September 29 and calculate a per million population rate. Then I looked up the median incubation period for COVID-19. According to CDC it's 4 to 5 days. I used 5 days. So I went to the thing you can see by doing the Google search https://www.google.com/search?q=Alabama ... CA0&uact=5 and got the vaccination rate for each State as of 5 days prior to September 29 (September 24).

Then I calculated a Pearson correlation coefficient for September 29 cases per million population rate vs. September 24 vaccination rate.

I did have to use the September 21 vaccination rate for Washington because the latest date for which I could see a vaccination rate was then.

The Pearson coefficient is -0.460330599. That is significant at more than 99.9% confidence. So there is a highly significant association such that case rates tend to be lower when vaccination rates are higher.

Since it's observational it doesn't infer cause and effect. Other things could be going on. For example: it could be that people in States with higher vaccination rates could also be more likely to do other things, like social distancing and mask wearing, that reduce risk. But it's consistent with the belief that the vaccines work. No matter how you slice it, States with higher vaccination rates tended to have lower case rates.

I do expect this kind of association to wane soon. That is because it looks like this Delta variant wave is starting to wane overall. I have seen plenty of public health talking heads say that on TV and I can see that appears to be happening based on the graphs available at Worldometers. Hopefully there will not be any future waves.

Note: If I exclude Washington because a September 24 vaccination rate was not available, the coefficient is -0.458995605 and the significance level remains >99.9%.

One last thing: In the past I have used vaccination rates as of the day of the case rate. I don't think that makes much difference. For example, the Alabama vaccination rate on September 24 was 41.8% and it was 42.5% on September 29. But I thought I should try to make SOME effort to account for the incubation period.

I disagree. You have misread your statistics.


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[JohnStOnge]

I think the anti-vaxxers are too focused on covid cases, and the stats should focus on covid hospitalizations, vaxxed versus unvaxxed. This way we would know if the vaccine is actually protecting people against Covid.

Obviously don't know if this an extreme outlier, but this is why I keep repeating that I hope the US doesn't follow the UK and Israel.

Since I live in Louisiana I follow what's going on with the Louisiana Department of Health website on COVID-19. As I type it says that, for the week of 9/16 through 9/22, 86% of cases and 81% of deaths were among people that were not fully vaccinated. It also says that 85% of current hospitalizations are among people that are not fully vaccinated.

Based on vaccination rate as of 9/16, that translates to a randomly selected person in Louisiana who was not fully vaccinated being 4.38 times as likely to be a case for that week and 3.3 times as likely to be a death than a randomly selected fully vaccinated person was. And based on current vaccination rate, it translates into a randomly selected person who is not fully vaccinated being 3.5 times as likely to be hospitalized as a randomly selected fully vaccinated person is.

That may not seem like a lot. But remember that there have been a lot of natural infections at this point. As of May 29 the CDC estimated that about 36% of the US population had been infected. It's 4 months later now, plus it's reasonable to think Louisiana's infection rate has been higher than the national rate. So we're not comparing fully vaccinated vs. not fully vaccinated among a population where nobody was previously infected with COVID-19. It is clear that, at this point, vaccination is significantly (and I'm talking about practical significance...not statistical significance) reducing the risk in the State I'm living in. Absolutely no doubt.

Well I guess I could include the qualification that this is observational. So you could have something like the likelihood of people being fully vaccinated also being more likely to be more careful in general being a factor. But, as a practical matter, any reasonable person is going to conclude that vaccination is significantly reducing the risk.

[CID1990]

Obviously don't know if this an extreme outlier, but this is why I keep repeating that I hope the US doesn't follow the UK and Israel.

Since I live in Louisiana I follow what's going on with the Louisiana Department of Health website on COVID-19. As I type it says that, for the week of 9/16 through 9/22, 86% of cases and 81% of deaths were among people that were not fully vaccinated. It also says that 85% of current hospitalizations are among people that are not fully vaccinated.

Based on vaccination rate as of 9/16, that translates to a randomly selected person in Louisiana who was not fully vaccinated being 4.38 times as likely to be a case for that week and 3.3 times as likely to be a death than a randomly selected fully vaccinated person was. And based on current vaccination rate, it translates into a randomly selected person who is not fully vaccinated being 3.5 times as likely to be hospitalized as a randomly selected fully vaccinated person is.

That may not seem like a lot. But remember that there have been a lot of natural infections at this point. As of May 29 the CDC estimated that about 36% of the US population had been infected. It's 4 months later now, plus it's reasonable to think Louisiana's infection rate has been higher than the national rate. So we're not comparing fully vaccinated vs. not fully vaccinated among a population where nobody was previously infected with COVID-19. It is clear that, at this point, vaccination is significantly (and I'm talking about practical significance...not statistical significance) reducing the risk in the State I'm living in. Absolutely no doubt.

Well I guess I could include the qualification that this is observational. So you could have something like the likelihood of people being fully vaccinated also being more likely to be more careful in general being a factor. But, as a practical matter, any reasonable person is going to conclude that vaccination is significantly reducing the risk.

Wronge, as usual


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[Col Hogan]

[kalm]

And tiktok videos posted to Twitter accurately describes the information sourcing for most anti-vaxxer/mandators.

[89Hen]

And tiktok videos posted to Twitter accurately describes the information sourcing for most anti-vaxxer/mandators.

Somebody got their feewings hurt.

[andy7171]

And tiktok videos posted to Twitter accurately describes the information sourcing for most anti-vaxxer/mandators.

Somebody got their feewings hurt.

[kalm]

And tiktok videos posted to Twitter accurately describes the information sourcing for most anti-vaxxer/mandators.

Somebody got their feewings hurt.

I weep for the stupidity of this once great nation

[AZGrizFan]

Somebody got their feewings hurt.

I weep for the stupidity of this once great nation

You ain't kidding. the past 8 months have been an absolute embarrassment.

[BDKJMU]

Love how the packed stadiums with no masks drives the left batshit crazy..

[SeattleGriz]

Love how the packed stadiums with no masks drives the left batshit crazy..

I was at the Montana Washington game and the stadium was around 1/3 - 1/2 capacity with very few wearing masks. That's a lot of fans that didn't show up to either Montana being a supposedly inferior opponent, OR still worried over catching COVID.

[Gil Dobie]

Love how the packed stadiums with no masks drives the left batshit crazy..

I was at the Montana Washington game and the stadium was around 1/3 - 1/2 capacity with very few wearing masks. That's a lot of fans that didn't show up to either Montana being a supposedly inferior opponent, OR still worried over catching COVID.

Why are you concerned over mask all of a sudden? I've been to Bison games and a concert, many other group events with no mask. I don't feel like I'm making a statement or anything. Just going on with life. You wear a mask, it's your choice. All you anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers keep coming up with BS to justify your choice. Make your choice and live with it.

[SeattleGriz]

I was at the Montana Washington game and the stadium was around 1/3 - 1/2 capacity with very few wearing masks. That's a lot of fans that didn't show up to either Montana being a supposedly inferior opponent, OR still worried over catching COVID.

Why are you concerned over mask all of a sudden? I've been to Bison games and a concert, many other group events with no mask. I don't feel like I'm making a statement or anything. Just going on with life. You wear a mask, it's your choice. All you anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers keep coming up with BS to justify your choice. Make your choice and live with it.

I'm not concerned over masks, just pointing out that it "seemed" the stadium was only half filled due to those fearful of COVID staying away. I base that assumption on the stadium being half full and those that went to the game did not wear masks.

We are still required to wear masks in indoor establishments out here and when that was relaxed before Delta, a shit ton of people still wore them. Like 90% in the grocery store, so I was very surprised to see so few at the game.

I wore a mask out of respect for the guy who took me. When he invited me, I let him know I was not vaccinated and told him that I would understand if it made him uncomfortable and was alright if he took his wife instead. He said we'd just wear masks, so I did. I hate wearing my mask and only do it because I am required.

[SDHornet]

This is information everyone should know by now. Through Aug, 86% of hospitalizations were unvaxxed costing an estimated $5 billion in unnecessary spending. If you care about lock downs, the economy, and whine about mandates you should be pro-vax.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/bri ... f-dollars/

When under 1% of those who contract COVID require hospitalization, I tend to worry more about obesity and chronic illness causing more of a drain on our medical system.

People who simply won't make lifestyle choices need to be vilified!!

[SDHornet]

And tiktok videos posted to Twitter accurately describes the information sourcing for most anti-vaxxer/mandators.

Somebody got their feewings hurt.

[SDHornet]

I was at the Montana Washington game and the stadium was around 1/3 - 1/2 capacity with very few wearing masks. That's a lot of fans that didn't show up to either Montana being a supposedly inferior opponent, OR still worried over catching COVID.

Why are you concerned over mask all of a sudden? I've been to Bison games and a concert, many other group events with no mask. I don't feel like I'm making a statement or anything. Just going on with life. You wear a mask, it's your choice. All you anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers keep coming up with BS to justify your choice. Make your choice and live with it.

We're trying but the gubmint is issuing mandates to fit their agenda regardless of the science and data.

[JohnStOnge]

I was at the Montana Washington game and the stadium was around 1/3 - 1/2 capacity with very few wearing masks. That's a lot of fans that didn't show up to either Montana being a supposedly inferior opponent, OR still worried over catching COVID.

Why are you concerned over mask all of a sudden? I've been to Bison games and a concert, many other group events with no mask. I don't feel like I'm making a statement or anything. Just going on with life. You wear a mask, it's your choice. All you anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers keep coming up with BS to justify your choice. Make your choice and live with it.

I am fully vaccinated but I wear a mask when I am around other people primarily because I don't know, at any given time, if I am infected. Sure, the odds are overwhelmingly against it at any particular moment. But if I am an asymptomatic infection I am a potential vector contributing to the circulation of the virus. Wearing a mask lowers the probability that I will infect someone else if I happen to be carrying the virus.

I do not think it's a matter of just choosing whether or not to put oneself at risk or not. Failing to wear a mask is potentially putting other people at risk and it also impedes efforts to address the problem on a population level. All indications are that, at any given time, there are a whole lot of asymptomatically infected people walking around. They don't know who they are and others don't know who they are.

I think the ideal would be if we could somehow get everybody to think of themselves as all on the same team doing what they can to minimize viral circulation. Wearing a mask around other people in order to reduce the risk of infecting them if you happen to be asymptomatically infected at the time should be part of that.

And I do believe that we would be in a much better place right now if everyone, all along, would have listened to and implemented social distancing and mask-wearing recommendations.