kalm wrote:89Hen wrote:
Please provide the list. I only see... UND/Nicholls and SIU with a miracle win (as I mentioned).
Win and in (next opponent, SoS, best wins (.500 or better teams in Massey Top 60, or FBS)
Albany 7-4 @ 5-6 Stony Brook / 3 / UNH, Towson
Towson 7-4 vs 4-6 Elon / 12 / Maine, Citadel
Furman VS Point (DII) / 41 / Chattahooga
Tennessee Martin 7-4 @ 5-5 Kentucky / 47 /
UNI 7-4 VS 1-10 WIU / 4 / Illinois State
SIU 7-4 VS 11-0 NDSU / 28 / UTM, UMASS.
Nicholls 7-4 @ 7-3 SELA / 48 / McNeese, UCA,
SELA 7-3 VS Nicholls / 53 / Central Arkansas
Seventeen locks right now but assuming Furman beats Point that's 18 locks. Assuming UT Martin loses to Kentucky, they are out. SELA VS NIcholls adds one to the locks, making it 19. UNI beating WIU is also a relatively safe bet so call it 20 locks.
Remaining Bubble for four spots based on probable outcomes from this week's games:
KSU 10-2 (close to being a lock but there's precedent for them being not).
SIU 7-5 (No bad losses, bad how much does the committee value the UMASS win?)
Maine 7-5 (Would close on a 5 game win streak, strong SoS, no. bad losses)
The Citadel (FBS win better than UMASS but bad loss to VMI)
Loser of SELA-NIcholls 7-4 or 7-5 (lack of OOC quality wins JSU might be viewed as one for SELA)
McNeese 7-5 (Lost h2h to Nicholls but beat SELA and has a slightly better SoS than both)
UND 7-4 (Solid SoS, but loss to EWU. How much does the committee value the Davis and SHSU wins?)
EWU 7-5 (4 game win streak, highest SoS of this group, bad loss to Idaho, only decent win UND)
Any upsets in the win and in group muddy things further but this group may have an upset or two as well