Most Difficult Path to the Big Sky Championship???

[native]

Five Big Sky teams remain in contention (theoretically) for at least a share the conference championship and a trip to the post season. Perhaps it is not likely, but all five could finish tied with each other with identical 6-2 conference records.

At 7-0 (4-0 BSC), with no losses, three high quality wins, and the two conference bottom feeders still on the menu, Montana can stumble across the finish line and still make the post-season. Very few expect them to stumble, either at home against a strong Weber State or on the road at a possibly undermanned Montana State. So, UM is not a choice in the poll.

Weber State (5-3, 5-1) already has three losses and only a single "quality" win, over EWU. The Wildcats win the BSC conference title and autobid outright if they win out, but must travel to Missoula this weekend before returning home to host Northern Arizona on the 14th and Cal Poly on the 21st of November, arguably the three most difficult games of their FCS season. According to the current power ratings, WSU is favored over NAU and CP, but not against UM.

Northern Arizona (5-2, 4-1) has the advantage of having already faced Montana, but the disadvantage of losing that hard fought game, albeit in overtime. NAU beat MSU in Bozeman, but must still face both Weber and Eastern Washington. The Lumberjacks will be in the catbird's seat if WSU falls at Montana this weekend, but must travel to Ogden for the chance to vanquish their rivals after an even more grueling and risky road trip to Ole Miss the week prior to the Weber game.

Eastern Washington (5-3, 4-2) has already lost arguably the two most difficult FCS games on the schedule, to WSU and UM, but pulled off the win against Montana State in Cheney. The Eagles must travel to Flagstaff for the final game of the regular season, meanwhile hoping for a number of conference rivals to lose. Does the NCAA decision to lift EWU's post season ban give the Eagles new lease on life? Is EWU relegated to playing the role of spoiler? If they win out but still miss the autobid, will their resume be good enough for an at-large bid?

Montana State (4-3, 2-2) pulled off the upset over Weber State but then lost at home to NAU and on the road at EWU. It is never too late for the Bobcats to redeem their honor by beating their hated cross-state rivals, Montana, when hosting the Griz in Bozeman for the final game of the regular season. The path to a conference championship is more daunting, and completely out of their control. For MSU to win the conference championship and BSC autobid, they not only have to win out, beating UM. The 'cats must also hope that Weber loses once in two remaining conference contests, and that UM, NAU and EWU each lose twice.

[dbackjon]

EWU is now eligible.


Montana State needs the most help

[GOKATS]

The Bobcats have a great chance to win out with 3 of 4 at home, but it would take losses by others to make them a contender. If they finish 6-2 8-3 with a win over the griz and a strong finish they should get a good look as an at-large.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

The Bobcats have a great chance to win out with 3 of 4 at home, but it would take losses by others to make them a contender. If they finish 6-2 8-3 with a win over the griz and a strong finish they should get a good look as an at-large.

I think MSU would almost be a lock for an at large if they won out, at 8-3 with wins over two ranked squads, Weber and Montana, and a close loss to pretty-much ranked EWU.

BUT, I think it's about 95% that MSU will lose to either Sac or UM, possibly both.

[GOKATS]

The Bobcats have a great chance to win out with 3 of 4 at home, but it would take losses by others to make them a contender. If they finish 6-2 8-3 with a win over the griz and a strong finish they should get a good look as an at-large.

I think MSU would almost be a lock for an at large if they won out, at 8-3 with wins over two ranked squads, Weber and Montana, and a close loss to pretty-much ranked EWU.

BUT, I think it's about 95% that MSU will lose to either Sac or UM, possibly both.

And I think it's about 98% that EWU will lose to either PSU or NAU, possibly both.

[kalm]

Toss up.

You might also have to consider what happens to Poly and Davis. If they both lose one more each, they're out. They both play each other, and Poly who has the better resume still has to travel to Weber. So if there's no GWC at-large, do you think that might increase the chances of a third BSC team getting in?

A 11-0 or 10-1 Montana, 8-3 or 7-4 Weber with only one or two FCS losses, and an 8-3 EWU, NAU, or MSU would mean a very strong conference and worthy of consideration for 3 bids.

I also think that Weber still has a chance of getting an at-large with a 7-4 record finishing 2nd in the Big Sky. They would be tied with an 8-3 EWU and winning that head to head or if they beat NAU who also finishes no better than 7-4.

But if Weber were to lose 2 out 3, that would open the door for the other three one of which would most likely finish 8-3 with at least a tie for 2nd in the BSC.

All I know is that at this point, if Eastern wins out we will finish 8-3 and no worse than 3rd in a very good conference, and quite possibly second. I like our chances if that occurrs.

[kalm]

I think MSU would almost be a lock for an at large if they won out, at 8-3 with wins over two ranked squads, Weber and Montana, and a close loss to pretty-much ranked EWU.

BUT, I think it's about 95% that MSU will lose to either Sac or UM, possibly both.

And I think it's about 98% that EWU will lose to either PSU or NAU, possibly both.

I think it's about a 75% chance that Screamin's assertion is more likely.

[GOKATS]

And I think it's about 98% that EWU will lose to either PSU or NAU, possibly both.

I think it's about a 75% chance that Screamin's assertion is more likely.

And I think it's about a 99.999% chance that you're both full of shit...................

[native]

Toss up.

You might also have to consider what happens to Poly and Davis. If they both lose one more each, they're out. They both play each other, and Poly who has the better resume still has to travel to Weber. So if there's no GWC at-large, do you think that might increase the chances of a third BSC team getting in?

A 11-0 or 10-1 Montana, 8-3 or 7-4 Weber with only one or two FCS losses, and an 8-3 EWU, NAU, or MSU would mean a very strong conference and worthy of consideration for 3 bids.

I also think that Weber still has a chance of getting an at-large with a 7-4 record finishing 2nd in the Big Sky. They would be tied with an 8-3 EWU and winning that head to head or if they beat NAU who also finishes no better than 7-4.

But if Weber were to lose 2 out 3, that would open the door for the other three one of which would most likely finish 8-3 with at least a tie for 2nd in the BSC.

All I know is that at this point, if Eastern wins out we will finish 8-3 and no worse than 3rd in a very good conference, and quite possibly second. I like our chances if that occurrs.

Nice analysis, kalm. I hope the Big Sky gets three to the post-season, but I have my doubts.

[Grizaholic17]

Now, Everyone did this record wise and voted for the Cats...But I am counting them out as contenders unless they have a huge turn around. I said that EWU and NAU both are going to have to really key in on their final teams to get a shot at that auto-bid.

[weberwildcat]

I'm excited to see EWU play now that the ban has been lifted.

PSU at home then @ SUU and @ NAU

Watch out yall!

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I'm excited to see EWU play now that the ban has been lifted.

PSU at home then @ SUU and @ NAU

Watch out yall!

Technically the PSU game is a "home" game, but I'm really glad it's in Seattle at Qwest. The team has been playing pretty subpar at home all year... We let D-II WOU hang with us for two quarters, we didn't do JACK on offense against UNC (turnovers saved us), we shit our pants against Weber and coughed up the ball way too many times, and played from behind against MSU most of the game before putting it together. Against FCS competition, Jones hasn't rushed over a 100 yards in Cheney yet. For some reason EWU plays much better on the road (1st quarter vs. Cal, ISU, Sac, UM), so I'm excited about our chances playing the last 3 games at Qwest Field, @ SUU and then @ NAU.