2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[JohnStOnge]

Well, every scientific poll I'm aware of indicated that the majority of the People who watched each debate thought Clinton won. And that's where the winning and losing is in those political "debates."

I'm not the only one that says that. Here's one example of an article pointing it out:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hilla ... 2016-10-20

As for really winning on substance, I think she did that too. Trump is a buffoon. She was far more knowledgeable than him and it showed.

She didn’t win the debates, John

She would have done better in the general ... and she might well have won the election if she had decided not to participate in any debates with Trump, and had instead spent that time campaigning in the rust belt.

Saying she won the debates is an exercise in idiocy because there is no real quantitative way to say it... it is based purely on opinions - you own as well as others.

Any serious candidate is a debate loser the moment they step on stage with Trump - for precisely the reasons you list. He isn’t just a buffoon. He makes buffoons out of anyone debating him (see Marco Rubio). That is particularly easy to do with someone who already has a mountain of ethical and dishonest baggage trailing behind her.

I think that is completely wrong. She didn't lose because of the debates. I think there were many factors in her loss. I think the biggest one is that she made that fateful decision to use a private e mail server. That led to her being under FBI investigation through much of the campaign and having Comey drop that bomb shortly before the election. There were also Russian efforts to suppress voting for her among groups that have voted Democrat in recent history.

When I say that the majority of people who watched each debate thought she won that is not...well..debatable. That's what happened. And Trump did not make a Buffoon out of Clinton. Anyway, in political terms, if the majority of people who watched a debate think Clinton won the debate she won the debate. And that's what happened each time.

As of the day after the third debate Clinton was up on Trump by 6 percentage points in the RCP average of polls. Comey came out with his last minute thing and the gap narrowed to 1.9 percentage points on November 2. Comey said "all clear" very late and the gap increased to 3.3 on the day prior to election day. But the damage was done.

I think it very likely that if the election had been held on the day following the date of the last debate Clinton would've won easily. Yes, I am talking about overall popular vote and not the electoral college. But it is clear that Clinton was in a lot better position immediately following the debates than she was after Comey did his thing late.

[Ivytalk]

Prove it, and show your work. This is an 8-Hour take-home.

Here is one example: The Republicans think they can make hay over Democrats wanting "socialized medicine." But a solid majority of Americans support going to a singer payer system.

https://www.kff.org/slideshow/public-op ... -coverage/



I'd say the "mainstream" position is support for going to a system whereby all Americans would get their health insurance from a single government plan.

Then there's gun control. https://www.apnews.com/99e6a9b480a947eab6da194697b8a303.

Overall, 6 in 10 Americans support a ban on AR-15 rifles and similar semiautomatic weapons.

Immigration. Just Google "poll on border wall." The mainstream opposes it.

Abortion. Do I even need to do anything with that one?

Look, I do not favor a single payer system. I do not favor a ban on semi automatic weapons. I am VERY anti abortion. But the reality is what it is. The Republicans are doing pretty well right now in terms of relative position of power because of our system that allows for minority influence. There's the Senate. There's the Electoral College. There's the success they've had at gerrymandering.

But there is no question that they are the minority party in terms of public sentiment and in terms of positions on major issues. And I don't think it's all that close.

Did you even read the small print in the link, John, much less the other graphs in the poll? Even according to Kaiser, support for single-payer could erode quickly, once people find out that they couldn’t keep their health coverage or have to pay higher taxes to get single-payer. Even the note in the bar graph shows that the question has been worded “Medicare for All” since early last year, thus skewing the results in favor of a guvmint plan. The belief in the free lunch remains strong in America. Sanders and Warren are tripping over each other’s dicks pandering to it. I don’t know why you feel compelled to keep pleading your own tepid support for conservative positions. Given your TDS, you really don’t have any ideological core any more — if you ever did, which I doubt.

[css75]

She didn’t win the debates, John

She would have done better in the general ... and she might well have won the election if she had decided not to participate in any debates with Trump, and had instead spent that time campaigning in the rust belt.

Saying she won the debates is an exercise in idiocy because there is no real quantitative way to say it... it is based purely on opinions - you own as well as others.

Any serious candidate is a debate loser the moment they step on stage with Trump - for precisely the reasons you list. He isn’t just a buffoon. He makes buffoons out of anyone debating him (see Marco Rubio). That is particularly easy to do with someone who already has a mountain of ethical and dishonest baggage trailing behind her.

I think that is completely wrong. She didn't lose because of the debates. I think there were many factors in her loss. I think the biggest one is that she made that fateful decision to use a private e mail server. That led to her being under FBI investigation through much of the campaign and having Comey drop that bomb shortly before the election. There were also Russian efforts to suppress voting for her among groups that have voted Democrat in recent history.

When I say that the majority of people who watched each debate thought she won that is not...well..debatable. That's what happened. And Trump did not make a Buffoon out of Clinton. Anyway, in political terms, if the majority of people who watched a debate think Clinton won the debate she won the debate. And that's what happened each time.

As of the day after the third debate Clinton was up on Trump by 6 percentage points in the RCP average of polls. Comey came out with his last minute thing and the gap narrowed to 1.9 percentage points on November 2. Comey said "all clear" very late and the gap increased to 3.3 on the day prior to election day. But the damage was done.

I think it very likely that if the election had been held on the day following the date of the last debate Clinton would've won easily. Yes, I am talking about overall popular vote and not the electoral college. But it is clear that Clinton was in a lot better position immediately following the debates than she was after Comey did his thing late.

You are right about the debates not costing her the election. She lost because:

Raunchy personality
Arrogance
Calling the American public deplorable
Open borders advocate
Poor campaign management
Lots of bad history from Whitewater thru Benghazi
0 accomplishments as Senator and Sec of State
Couldn’t manage a marriage

These are just a few, others feel free to add.

[JohnStOnge]

Well, every scientific poll I'm aware of indicated that the majority of the People who watched each debate thought Clinton won. And that's where the winning and losing is in those political "debates."

I'm not the only one that says that. Here's one example of an article pointing it out:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hilla ... 2016-10-20

As for really winning on substance, I think she did that too. Trump is a buffoon. She was far more knowledgeable than him and it showed.

Clinton clearly won all three of her debates with Trump

For the 1st debate, of the 5 polls listed by wiki, Trump won 1, 1 was a tie, and a 3rd had Clinton winning by only 1 percentage point. Clinton won the other 2. Only 1 of the 5 had her winning decisively.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Un ... al_debates
So no, Clinton didn’t ‘clearly’ win the 1st debate.

Ok. In the Wiki article you linked this is what I'm seeing about the first debate:

Writing on September 28, FiveThirtyEight found that every scientific poll so far suggests that voters thought Hillary Clinton performed better than Donald Trump in the debate.[38] A CNN/ORC poll of debate viewers found that 62% believed Clinton won, compared to 27% for Trump.[39] A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling found that 51% thought Clinton won the debate, while 40% thought Trump won.[40] A YouGov poll found that 57% of Americans declared Clinton the winner, while 30% declared Trump the winner.[41] A Politico/Morning Consult poll showed that 49% of likely voters thought that Clinton won the debate, while 26% thought that Trump won, and 25% were undecided.[42] Echelon Insights polling showed that Clinton won the debate 48-22, and that the debate made 41% of respondents more likely to vote for Clinton while 29% were more likely to vote for Trump.[43] A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 56% of Americans thought Clinton did better, while 26% thought Trump did.[44] An NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll shows that 52% of likely voters who followed the debate chose Clinton was the winner, 21% chose Trump, and 26% did not choose either candidate.[45] A Gallup poll showed that more respondents thought Clinton did a better job than Trump by a margin of 61% to 27%.[46] A Fox News poll shows that 61% of respondents thought that Clinton won the debate while 21% said Trump did.[47] An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that 53% of respondents thought that Clinton won the debate while 18% said Trump did.[48] A CBS News poll shows that 32% of likely voters say that they thought better of Clinton after watching the debate, but only 10% of voters said that they thought better of Trump afterward.[49]

A panel of Los Angeles Times analysts consisting of Doyle McManus and two others found that Clinton won all six of the debate segments.[50] Among swing-state party officials and strategists surveyed by Politico, 79% agreed that Trump did not win the debate.[51]

I'm not getting where you're getting what you're saying.

[JohnStOnge]

Here is one example: The Republicans think they can make hay over Democrats wanting "socialized medicine." But a solid majority of Americans support going to a singer payer system.

https://www.kff.org/slideshow/public-op ... -coverage/



I'd say the "mainstream" position is support for going to a system whereby all Americans would get their health insurance from a single government plan.

Then there's gun control. https://www.apnews.com/99e6a9b480a947eab6da194697b8a303.



Immigration. Just Google "poll on border wall." The mainstream opposes it.

Abortion. Do I even need to do anything with that one?

Look, I do not favor a single payer system. I do not favor a ban on semi automatic weapons. I am VERY anti abortion. But the reality is what it is. The Republicans are doing pretty well right now in terms of relative position of power because of our system that allows for minority influence. There's the Senate. There's the Electoral College. There's the success they've had at gerrymandering.

But there is no question that they are the minority party in terms of public sentiment and in terms of positions on major issues. And I don't think it's all that close.

Did you even read the small print in the link, John, much less the other graphs in the poll? Even according to Kaiser, support for single-payer could erode quickly, once people find out that they couldn’t keep their health coverage or have to pay higher taxes to get single-payer. Even the note in the bar graph shows that the question has been worded “Medicare for All” since early last year, thus skewing the results in favor of a guvmint plan. The belief in the free lunch remains strong in America. Sanders and Warren are tripping over each other’s dicks pandering to it. I don’t know why you feel compelled to keep pleading your own tepid support for conservative positions. Given your TDS, you really don’t have any ideological core any more — if you ever did, which I doubt.

Americans favor a single payer plan. If you tell them you want to create that they will support it. If you tell them that government will take care of it they won't give a shit if they don't get to keep their private insurance. I guarantee you that most people have had issues with their private insurance. If you tell them, "Don't worry. Government will take care of it" most of them will favor that idea.

[css75]

Did you even read the small print in the link, John, much less the other graphs in the poll? Even according to Kaiser, support for single-payer could erode quickly, once people find out that they couldn’t keep their health coverage or have to pay higher taxes to get single-payer. Even the note in the bar graph shows that the question has been worded “Medicare for All” since early last year, thus skewing the results in favor of a guvmint plan. The belief in the free lunch remains strong in America. Sanders and Warren are tripping over each other’s dicks pandering to it. I don’t know why you feel compelled to keep pleading your own tepid support for conservative positions. Given your TDS, you really don’t have any ideological core any more — if you ever did, which I doubt.

Americans favor a single payer plan. If you tell them you want to create that they will support it. If you tell them that government will take care of it they won't give a **** if they don't get to keep their private insurance. I guarantee you that most people have had issues with their private insurance. If you tell them, "Don't worry. Government will take care of it" most of them will favor that idea.

I hope you get single payer, but anyone with smarts does not want that, why do you think Canadiens come here? Single payer will totally destroy health care as we know it. It is too bad peoples, who want it, can’t have it without forcing it on those of us who know what it is about.


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[CID1990]

Did you even read the small print in the link, John, much less the other graphs in the poll? Even according to Kaiser, support for single-payer could erode quickly, once people find out that they couldn’t keep their health coverage or have to pay higher taxes to get single-payer. Even the note in the bar graph shows that the question has been worded “Medicare for All” since early last year, thus skewing the results in favor of a guvmint plan. The belief in the free lunch remains strong in America. Sanders and Warren are tripping over each other’s dicks pandering to it. I don’t know why you feel compelled to keep pleading your own tepid support for conservative positions. Given your TDS, you really don’t have any ideological core any more — if you ever did, which I doubt.

Americans favor a single payer plan. If you tell them you want to create that they will support it. If you tell them that government will take care of it they won't give a **** if they don't get to keep their private insurance. I guarantee you that most people have had issues with their private insurance. If you tell them, "Don't worry. Government will take care of it" most of them will favor that idea.

You are seriously misjudging the 180 million people who:

1) have private insurance

2) have visited the DMV and know that Aetna can do health insurance better than the DMV

Most polling shows that support for single payer drops way off when you factor for loss of private insurance AND significantly higher taxes on the middle class. That’s a fact.



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[BDKJMU]

Here is one example: The Republicans think they can make hay over Democrats wanting "socialized medicine." But a solid majority of Americans support going to a singer payer system.

https://www.kff.org/slideshow/public-op ... -coverage/


I'd say the "mainstream" position is support for going to a system whereby all Americans would get their health insurance from a single government plan.

“...The poll found that Americans initially support “Medicare-for-all,” 56 percent to 42 percent..::

But if they were told that a government-run system could lead to delays in getting care or higher taxes, support plunged to 26 percent and 37 percent, respectively. Support fell to 32 percent if it would threaten the current Medicare program....”
https://apnews.com/4516833e7fb644c9aa8bcc11048b2169

We’ve been over this multiple times before.
https://championshipsubdivision.com/for ... 0#p1228799

[BDKJMU]

Americans favor a single payer plan. If you tell them you want to create that they will support it. If you tell them that government will take care of it they won't give a **** if they don't get to keep their private insurance. I guarantee you that most people have had issues with their private insurance. If you tell them, "Don't worry. Government will take care of it" most of them will favor that idea.

You are seriously misjudging the 180 million people who:

1) have private insurance

2) have visited the DMV and know that Aetna can do health insurance better than the DMV

Most polling shows that support for single payer drops way off when you factor for loss of private insurance AND significantly higher taxes on the middle class. That’s a fact.



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Yep, beat me to it. Something JSO can’t seem to grasp..

[Ivytalk]

Americans favor a single payer plan. If you tell them you want to create that they will support it. If you tell them that government will take care of it they won't give a **** if they don't get to keep their private insurance. I guarantee you that most people have had issues with their private insurance. If you tell them, "Don't worry. Government will take care of it" most of them will favor that idea.

You are seriously misjudging the 180 million people who:

1) have private insurance

2) have visited the DMV and know that Aetna can do health insurance better than the DMV

Most polling shows that support for single payer drops way off when you factor for loss of private insurance AND significantly higher taxes on the middle class. That’s a fact.



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That’s what his own source said, CID! But he won’t believe either of us. Just another example of JSO’s flagrant intellectual dishonesty in twisting facts to back his tiresome TDS narrative.

[CID1990]

You are seriously misjudging the 180 million people who:

1) have private insurance

2) have visited the DMV and know that Aetna can do health insurance better than the DMV

Most polling shows that support for single payer drops way off when you factor for loss of private insurance AND significantly higher taxes on the middle class. That’s a fact.



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That’s what his own source said, CID! But he won’t believe either of us. Just another example of JSO’s flagrant intellectual dishonesty in twisting facts to back his tiresome TDS narrative.

Careful, Ivy

Clittoris might accuse you of dancing backwards for The Donald


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[Ivytalk]

That’s what his own source said, CID! But he won’t believe either of us. Just another example of JSO’s flagrant intellectual dishonesty in twisting facts to back his tiresome TDS narrative.

Careful, Ivy

Clittoris might accuse you of dancing backwards for The Donald


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Mrs. Ivy can tell you that I’m totally incapable of dancing forward, much less backward!

[kalm]

Americans favor a single payer plan. If you tell them you want to create that they will support it. If you tell them that government will take care of it they won't give a **** if they don't get to keep their private insurance. I guarantee you that most people have had issues with their private insurance. If you tell them, "Don't worry. Government will take care of it" most of them will favor that idea.

You are seriously misjudging the 180 million people who:

1) have private insurance

2) have visited the DMV and know that Aetna can do health insurance better than the DMV

Most polling shows that support for single payer drops way off when you factor for loss of private insurance AND significantly higher taxes on the middle class. That’s a fact.



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How many of those 180 million are happy with their private insurance and the system in general? I have a non-employer based cadillac plan that pay 100% of. Deductible isn't bad and the coverage is great. But the system still blows when it comes to billing complexities and wait times.

And of course support drops off if you only ask about higher taxes without mentioning those tax increases would be more than offset by lower premiums and deductibles (if any).

[CID1990]

You are seriously misjudging the 180 million people who:

1) have private insurance

2) have visited the DMV and know that Aetna can do health insurance better than the DMV

Most polling shows that support for single payer drops way off when you factor for loss of private insurance AND significantly higher taxes on the middle class. That’s a fact.



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How many of those 180 million are happy with their private insurance and the system in general? I have a non-employer based cadillac plan that pay 100% of. Deductible isn't bad and the coverage is great. But the system still blows when it comes to billing complexities and wait times.

And of course support drops off if you only ask about higher taxes without mentioning those tax increases would be more than offset by lower premiums and deductibles (if any).

And offset by even worse customer service and inefficiency and less access to long term care?

Refer back to my comments about the DMV. I think I already covered this

For the 100th time.... where does your faith in government come from?

[kalm]

How many of those 180 million are happy with their private insurance and the system in general? I have a non-employer based cadillac plan that pay 100% of. Deductible isn't bad and the coverage is great. But the system still blows when it comes to billing complexities and wait times.

And of course support drops off if you only ask about higher taxes without mentioning those tax increases would be more than offset by lower premiums and deductibles (if any).

And offset by even worse customer service and inefficiency and less access to long term care?

Refer back to my comments about the DMV. I think I already covered this

For the 100th time.... where does your faith in government come from?

And for the 100th time, providers would remain private. The biggest pain in the ass relating to customer service is insurance billing, a process which would actually be simplified by tenfold. I’m sure it would still be frustrating but navigating the current system absolutely blows. The Wa State DMV is an efficient, well oiled machine compared to it or for that matter, Comcast.

Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good, Cidney.

[AZGrizFan]

And offset by even worse customer service and inefficiency and less access to long term care?

Refer back to my comments about the DMV. I think I already covered this

For the 100th time.... where does your faith in government come from?

And for the 100th time, providers would remain private. The biggest pain in the ass relating to customer service is insurance billing, a process which would actually be simplified by tenfold. I’m sure it would still be frustrating but navigating the current system absolutely blows. The Wa State DMV is an efficient, well oiled machine compared to it or for that matter, Comcast.

Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good, Cidney.

[CID1990]

And offset by even worse customer service and inefficiency and less access to long term care?

Refer back to my comments about the DMV. I think I already covered this

For the 100th time.... where does your faith in government come from?

And for the 100th time, providers would remain private. The biggest pain in the ass relating to customer service is insurance billing, a process which would actually be simplified by tenfold. I’m sure it would still be frustrating but navigating the current system absolutely blows. The Wa State DMV is an efficient, well oiled machine compared to it or for that matter, Comcast.

Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good, Cidney.

And the “good” providers won’t accept the government payments, and in addition to being inefficient and apportioned, it will be second tier.

[kalm]

And for the 100th time, providers would remain private. The biggest pain in the ass relating to customer service is insurance billing, a process which would actually be simplified by tenfold. I’m sure it would still be frustrating but navigating the current system absolutely blows. The Wa State DMV is an efficient, well oiled machine compared to it or for that matter, Comcast.

Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good, Cidney.

Nothing I said there is incorrect. Back on the struggle bus with you.

[CID1990]

Nothing I said there is incorrect. Back on the struggle bus with you.

No, just none of it is as significant as you say it is.

Providers would be two-tiered - private, but the good ones only available to those who can pay.

You are obfuscatory - but it doesn’t matter. When told the truth about the required taxation alone, Americans won’t go for it- regardless of how frustrated they are with insurance billing.


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[CID1990]

10 years after becoming vice prez to Barack Obama, Joe Biden’s positions on busing suddenly become interesting to the media:

https://hotair.com/archives/2019/06/30/ ... oteworthy/


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[kalm]

Nothing I said there is incorrect. Back on the struggle bus with you.

No, just none of it is as significant as you say it is.

Providers would be two-tiered - private, but the good ones only available to those who can pay.

You are obfuscatory - but it doesn’t matter. When told the truth about the required taxation alone, Americans won’t go for it- regardless of how frustrated they are with insurance billing.


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So whats’s the truth about taxes? Bernie’s plan include’s the math regarding how the annual cost savings in medical expenses will more than offset middle class tax increases. I’m all open to hearing about an alternative view of the numbers.

[CID1990]

No, just none of it is as significant as you say it is.

Providers would be two-tiered - private, but the good ones only available to those who can pay.

You are obfuscatory - but it doesn’t matter. When told the truth about the required taxation alone, Americans won’t go for it- regardless of how frustrated they are with insurance billing.


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So whats’s the truth about taxes? Bernie’s plan include’s the math regarding how the annual cost savings in medical expenses will more than offset middle class tax increases. I’m all open to hearing about an alternative view of the numbers.

Why don’t you look into criticisms of Bernie’s math first? Or, look at sources that say Bernie hasn’t actually given a detailed plan about how his Medicare for All scheme will be paid for (because he knows either a massive tax hike, a VAT, or a combination of the two will be required... and there will be co-pays which will slide ever upwards like postage)

“Sanders didn’t offer a specific way to pay for the plan. A statement on financing it said, “We will continue to get the best ideas from economists, doctors, nurses, and ordinary Americans to guarantee health care as a fundamental right.””

http://fortune.com/2019/04/10/bernie-sa ... -all-bill/

There are plenty of those “alternative views” out there and not all of them are right wing -




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[css75]

So whats’s the truth about taxes? Bernie’s plan include’s the math regarding how the annual cost savings in medical expenses will more than offset middle class tax increases. I’m all open to hearing about an alternative view of the numbers.

Why don’t you look into criticisms of Bernie’s math first? Or, look at sources that say Bernie hasn’t actually given a detailed plan about how his Medicare for All scheme will be paid for (because he knows either a massive tax hike, a VAT, or a combination of the two will be required... and there will be co-pays which will slide ever upwards like postage)

“Sanders didn’t offer a specific way to pay for the plan. A statement on financing it said, “We will continue to get the best ideas from economists, doctors, nurses, and ordinary Americans to guarantee health care as a fundamental right.””

http://fortune.com/2019/04/10/bernie-sa ... -all-bill/

There are plenty of those “alternative views” out there and not all of them are right wing -



The only numbers Bernie knows about are the too many he rolled up and smoked.


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[JohnStOnge]

Guys, the default position is that a substantial majority of Americans favor the idea of having government take care of health care. Yes, if you can convince them that bad things will happen support drops. But the default position is to favor it.

Look at slide 5 of that presentation I linked. It shows how support varies depending on the language used. But even when the terminology is "Socialized Medicine" more respondents had a positive reaction to the thought than had a negative reaction to it. Digest that. Here Republicans are all into this "Socialist" things yet more respondents to that poll had a positive reaction to the terminology "Socialized Medicine" than had a negative one.

Look, I do not favor government health care. I do not think health care is a right. But there is no benefit in being in denial about trends in public opinion. The general trend is towards more support for government taking care of it.

[JohnStOnge]

Here's another one for you guys to look at:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/real_ ... ncern.html

In the poll under discussion, support for "Medicare for All" dropped when people were told private insurance would be eliminated and everyone would get their health care through Medicare. But the "support" position still beat the "oppose" position by a substantial margin. Here's the quote:

“Do you support or oppose Medicare for All, which is a system that will eliminate all private health insurance companies, and where all Americans, not just older ones, get health insurance through the government’s Medicare system?” Even with that caveat, 55% were in support, with 34% opposed.

That's a 21 percentage point edge for the "support" position.

BTW I am in the "oppose" camp. But I'm not going to kid myself about where public opinion is on this.